Obama beats a federal prisoner by less than 20% in the West Virginia D. Primary.

[Brittain33]

Um. Of course Romney's going to win WV easily, but his doing well today reflects more on how tiny and united the WV Republican party is than how much love the nominal Dem who is the median voter has for Romney.

[Brittain33]

WV is unlike the rest of the south because a) it's pro-union, b) lacks racially polarized politics except when imported from a federal level, and c) lacked a well-off suburban or transplant population to form the nucleus of a Republican party.

[Brittain33]

That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.

You Democrats who actually think Obama will improve in West Virginia are beyond delusional.  You're down right loony. 

They really are.

Who in WV who voted for him in 2008 is going to switch to vote for Romney in 2012?

(crickets.)

How many people who were jazzed to vote against him and for McCain-Palin in '08 will have a harder time coming out to vote for Romney?

Possibly larger number.

Now, don't cut this last line out when you quote me - I wouldn't be surprised if Obama did slightly worse, about the same, or slightly better than he did in '08. But I don't think it's bleeding obvious that he's going to do 10+ points worse against a weaker Republican opponent.

[Brittain33]

did their Great-Great-Grandfathers registered them as democrats in about 1868 and no one has bothered to switch? LOL. The Union dynamic is interesting.  These are the people the democrats are orphaning off and the republicans are slowly gobbling them up.         

I don't think they are Civil War-era Democrats, I think it's mostly a 20th century phenomenon. It's more like the Iron Range than like Mississippi (but not much like either.)