Obama beats a federal prisoner by less than 20% in the West Virginia D. Primary.

[timothyinMD]

And you guys wonder why I said Obama wont even break 30% in West Virginia this November.

The 41% for Judd is wholly dislike of Obama.  Pretty funny.

Mingo County has 17K registered Dems and only 3K registered Repubs.  Closed primary, so of course Dems have a higher turnout.  Statewide it's 53% Dem and just 27% Repub.

Obama had been the first Democrat to lose Mingo since McGovern in 72. 

[timothyinMD]

Obama isn't winning a single county in November.

Probably not.  He won 7 counties in 2008, including Morgantown's (WVU) Monongalia, Jefferson in the Eastern Panhandle and some Southern West Virginia counties that have voted Democratic for decades.  My guess is he'll still win a few counties.  It will be interesting to see if the coal country holdouts that voted for Obama in 2008 flip this time, given Obama's anti-coal policies. 

If they didn't flip in 2008, they're not flipping this year. Given current polling and Obama's more populist campaign, he'll get 44-45% in West Virginia, which obviously is bad for a Democrat but marginally better than 2008.

44-45%  I actually laughed out loud when I read that

[timothyinMD]

That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.

You Democrats who actually think Obama will improve in West Virginia are beyond delusional.  You're down right loony. 

[timothyinMD]

There is ample evidence that Obama will plummet in WV, we just don't know how much.
Gallup lists his approval in WV at 32.7%  That's a 10.5% drop from his vote share just right there.  I think it's likely that WV will have pitiful turnout this November.  Those who are regular Dems who don't like Obama will either vote Romney or stay home most likely

I think he'll probably get around 31% in WV, but win no counties

That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.

You Democrats who actually think Obama will improve in West Virginia are beyond delusional.  You're down right loony. 

They really are.