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| | |-+  If Obama endorsed same sex marriage, would it help his campaign?
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Yes   -28 (39.4%)
No effect   -23 (32.4%)
It would hurt him   -20 (28.2%)
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Author Topic: If Obama endorsed same sex marriage, would it help his campaign?  (Read 2919 times)
cavalcade
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« on: May 09, 2012, 09:27:04 am »
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Curious what the views on the forum are as Biden's comments, Amendment 1 etc. get play in the media.  My guess is that Obama has high minority turnout no matter what, he'll raise slightly more money if he backs it but that won't matter very much, and he'll lose some Appalachian whites- so it would hurt overall.
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2012, 10:03:42 am »
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I believe it would help him. Obama hasn't given progressives much to approve of but explicitly endorsing gay marriage in the presidential campaign would inspire us and keep us from staying home or voting third party. For me, it would show him as a courageous leader, much more than killing Osaka bin Laden did, but I am not one who takes pride in blood as revenge either. I do not expect him to do it but I disagree that losing Appalachian whites hurts Obama. Cut this cancer out of the campaign now! The sooner Democrats realize that pandering to white trash, the sooner Democrats can start accomplishing on the agenda they profess to support.
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clarence
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2012, 10:06:18 am »
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After the Amendment 1- I believe it would hurt. It clearly wouldn't help him inNC and any other state which has voted that way
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2012, 10:17:34 am »
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After the Amendment 1- I believe it would hurt. It clearly wouldn't help him inNC and any other state which has voted that way

Amendment One was a low turn out primary election dominated by conservatives and older voters like one would expect. A lot of support for gay marriage is predicated on apathy itself; "why should I care if gays get married?" isn't too far from "why should I care to go vote?". Younger voters are like that, sadly. Most states, like Obama, have "evolving" views on gay marriage. There is no possible situation where Obama would win NC without winning nationwide so that anecdote would be neutral overall. If it extends to states like Ohio it could be a negative but I do not think it would. I also do not think Mittens can win the marriage issue the way W. did considering his statements back in 1994.
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2012, 10:20:22 am »
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I love how Napoleon is openly coming out as an elitist.

With that said, did you guys see the results last election?  Obama did HORRIBLY amongst Appalachian whites!  And that was in 2008 when he had everything and the kitchen sink going for him!
Sure, you can argue that every vote is important, but these people are not voting Obama, unless maybe the Republican comes out in favor of gay marriage.  So it's pretty futile to think "oh if I stay quiet on this I can win some Appalachian whites".
This may shock some of you, but popular votes don't matter!  Winning five more votes in a state that is going to vote 55% GOP regardless isn't going to do jack sh*t!  The only votes that matter are the Electoral College and frankly being quiet on gays isn't going to help Obama win those states.
At this rate, at how fast approval for gay marriage is spreading, I really don't see how supporting it would hurt Obama significantly.  I mean, at least it would show he has a spine.
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2012, 10:20:43 am »
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I don't think Obama's rather pathetic dodge ball routine on gay marriage will help him (it is almost becoming a theme in general actually, e.g. entitlements), but whether it hurts him much either on this one is problematical.
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angus
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« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2012, 10:25:46 am »
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I think it helps him.

I sort of agree with Torie, but as a practical matter, it would probably cost him any chance to retain those few states he won in 2008 which generally vote for Republicans (IN, NC, etc.) and his advisors would therefore advise him to focus like a laser on the states that he can win.  In the end, a solid 270-vote victory is better than a possible 338-vote victory, so he spends his money more effectively.

More importantly, it would probably affect his ability to push a legislative agenda through the next congress, and it is for this reason that he will likely continue the dodge ball routine. 
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« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2012, 10:35:04 am »
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I love how Napoleon is openly coming out as an elitist.
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« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2012, 11:16:25 am »
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I think he should be honest with the voters and support gay marriage if he believes it. 
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The Mikado
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2012, 11:48:24 am »
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I think, sadly, 2012 it's still an overall net negative, but not one that would hurt his campaign all that much.  Marriage equality is, now, essentially a 50/50 issue.  It's nowhere near as good a wedge issue for the GOP as it was in 2004.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that the 2016 Democratic nominee will be unabashedly pro-marriage equality.
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2012, 12:30:49 pm »
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One of the factors here is that Romney may not be the best messenger for the anti-same sex marriage position. If Santorum or Gingrich were the candidate, I think they'd have been better at making the issue into a crusade.
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Paul Kemp
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« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2012, 12:34:53 pm »
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Anyone who won't vote for him because he supports gay marriage probably won't vote for him any way.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2012, 12:49:34 pm »
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Anyone who won't vote for him because he supports gay marriage probably won't vote for him any way.

And, to be fair, anyone voting on the issue and in favor of gay marriage are likely voting for Obama anyway.
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« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2012, 12:49:59 pm »
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It would get some liberals to vote that would have otherwise opted not to, which is helpful.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2012, 12:56:42 pm »
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It will help most with rich gay donors which have withheld their contributions so far.
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« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2012, 01:03:20 pm »
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Net negative. Obama's white union support would see a downturn. People often say they support gay marriage because, in theory, they have no reason not to. When it gets down to a very real decision though, I think you would see a lot of people in the rust belt switch their support over to Romney. He's not an exciting candidate, but he's a fairly safe candidate. Romney will win not because of Romney, but because of Obama. If Obama gives people a reason to feel uncomfortable (like this one), Romney is an okay alternative.

So bottom line: It hurts him in places like Virginia and North Carolina that have traditionally been more conservative. It hurts him in Florida where a lot of older voters live. It hurts him in the rust belt where working-class Democrats are more fiscally liberal than socially liberal. And it could even hurt with Latinos in the West (what are their views on gay marriage?).
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The Mikado
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« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2012, 01:33:37 pm »
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Considering Mexico already has de facto marriage equality (they have same sex marriage in Mexico City and marriages in Mexico City are valid throughout the rest of the country)...
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« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2012, 01:38:30 pm »
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hurt...as the jmfcsts would be fired up.
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« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2012, 01:42:55 pm »
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I'll tell you- I do NOT admire the frankly cowardly way Obama has gone about it..."position is evolving" when we know he is in favor of it
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« Reply #19 on: May 09, 2012, 01:44:25 pm »
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Personally, I've spoken to a few liberal Third Party supporters who say that Obama's silence on the issue partially influenced their decision not to vote for him this time around, so it would definitely help rally the base at least somewhat.  And as the country becomes more friendly toward the issue, less people are going to be basing their votes on that one issue and vote for the Republican, especially since social issues are the last on voters' minds today.  It would also make him look more like a person who's honest about the way they feel rather than someone who just follows what the polls say like Romney is.  So overall, I would say a significant net positive... but definitely not enough to guarantee him reelection.

Gay marriage is just no longer a toxic issue for Democrats that would have a huge impact, at this point.
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« Reply #20 on: May 09, 2012, 02:02:33 pm »
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I guess we're going to find out...

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/live-news-6105570
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« Reply #21 on: May 09, 2012, 02:04:28 pm »
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Obama just endorsed gay marriage, actually.

"I hesitated on gay marriage, because I thought civil unions would be sufficient."
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« Reply #22 on: May 09, 2012, 02:11:42 pm »
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Oh well, looks like Romney is going to win this fall, as he rides a wave of anti-socialist gay panic into the White House. Congratulations, Republicans!

I'll tell you- I do NOT admire the frankly cowardly way Obama has gone about it..."position is evolving" when we know he is in favor of it

Except that it seems his position actually has evolved. Remember that he first started getting into politics in the 90s, when "homosexual" was still a dirty word and few people, even on the farthest reaches of the left, supported gay marriage. His evolution on this issue mirrors that of a large portion of society.
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« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2012, 02:16:25 pm »
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When I saw this headline I was jumping for joy!
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« Reply #24 on: May 09, 2012, 02:18:00 pm »
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hurt...as the jmfcsts would be fired up.

And then you remember Romney is the nominee and go back to watching TV.
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