If Obama endorsed same sex marriage, would it help his campaign?

[ajb]

PPP tweet:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏ @ppppolls

On national poll last weekend we found most voters opposed to legal recognition for gay couples ALREADY think Obama supports gay marriage

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

I think the effect will balance it out. He'll probably lose some working-class whites or evangelical Hispanics, but may have better luck turning out younger liberals.

[ModerateCoward]

Helps in the right swing states(Colorado & Virginia) but makes an above 300 EV landslide a lot less likely.

[Secretary Polnut]

Helps in the right swing states(Colorado & Virginia) but makes an above 300 EV landslide a lot less likely.

I think it helps sure up his firewall, but weakens his chances at the GOP-leaning hanging fruit.

It'll force up evangelical turnout, but fire up his base just as much.

[ModerateCoward]

Helps in the right swing states(Colorado & Virginia) but makes an above 300 EV landslide a lot less likely.

I think it helps sure up his firewall, but weakens his chances at the GOP-leaning hanging fruit.

It'll force up evangelical turnout, but fire up his base just as much.

This election also became hilariously easy to predict now.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Helps in the right swing states(Colorado & Virginia) but makes an above 300 EV landslide a lot less likely.

I think it helps sure up his firewall, but weakens his chances at the GOP-leaning hanging fruit.

It'll force up evangelical turnout, but fire up his base just as much.

And it's not like he was going to do well with the GOP leaners anyhow.  

[angus]

When I saw this headline I was jumping for joy!

Was that before or after you had your film-school boys film you showering?

[Reaganfan]

When I saw this headline I was jumping for joy!

Was that before or after you had your film-school boys film you showering?

Before.

[Frodo]

It would help -it would motivate his base to actually vote for him, as opposed to merely voting against Mitt Romney.  It might even re-ignite some of that old 2008 enthusiasm by getting liberals off their couches and actually getting out into the streets and volunteering on behalf of his re-election campaign. 

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Hurt. Romneys biggest weakness was his unpopularity among socons. Obama's recent support of gay marriage has curtailed that disadvantage.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Most opponents of gay marriage already thought that Obama supported it, while the overwhelming majority of those who did support gay marriage knew that he didn't support it yet. So from that perspective, it really made sense to come out for it.

[oakvale]

Romneys biggest weakness was his unpopularity among socons.

That's... not true at all.

[Tender Branson]

Obama better hope that the gay-hating Blacks and Latinos vote for him no matter what and don't stay at home.

As we have seen yesterday, gay-marriage still runs about 10% behind the Obama result (49%) - maybe even more if Obama currently leads in NC with more than 50%.

Therefore, I vote "no change" - but it could actually cost him the election in swing states.

[wan]

i'm sure the rich in hollywood are happy.

[opebo]

i'm sure the rich in hollywood are happy.

Well, I'm sure the rich everywhere are always happy, but how does Obama's musing have any bearing on that timeless truth?

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

‏Romney

"I do not favor marriage between people of the same gender and I don't favor civil unions if they are identical to marriage other than by name," Romney said in an interview with KDVR-TV in Denver.

@ppppolls

65% of OH voters support either gay marriage or civil unions, 32% against any recognition: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/brown-leads-oh-sen-looking-ahead-to-2014.html

[milhouse24]

As strange as it may sound, I think this is a one week story at most.  Its quite clear that the Obama campaign is desperete for anything to excite the base.  Sure, maybe college students and unemployed grads will be celebrating in the streets today, but in Sept and Oct these unemployed grads will be sitting at home on couch wondering if the govt will bailout their college loans. 

Obama supported gay marriage because NC voted against gay marriage, and it will look very strange for the DNC to have the convention in Raleigh.  Its a good thing the NC flag doesn't have the stars and bars or that would also be awkward as well. 

Obama will also get a boost in Money, because everything in life comes down to money and Obama wants his Gay Bundlers to increase their donations. 

Basically, its a risk to make the 2012 election about social issues primarily "gay marriage" but obama doesn't have anything else major to campaign on.

Besides, he can say anything he wants about Gay Marriage, just like he can say gay marriage should be made legal on the moon. 

Currently, there is no federal law allowing gay marriage, so if President Obama really had the power as President, he should be able to go ahead and pass gay marriage right now!

Its ironic that he claims he will wait until November to pass gay marriage. 

Or perhaps this gay marriage declaration is just pointless campaign banter and empty promises.  Because if Obama really wanted to pass gay marriage, he would have done it already!  Obama is clearly trying to fool liberal activists into giving him more money on something he can take care of right now.  Its a fools errand for these liberals. 

Will Obama really be able to pass federal gay marriage in 2013, instead of May 2012? 

[rbt48]

Well, up front I'll state that I'm opposed to gay marriage but that is incidental, I suppose.  

This definitely won't hurt him as much as it would have if he had come out in favor of polygamy!  As for specific states:

- He can definitely kiss off carrying North Carolina and Indiana this year.  
- Any chance he had for Missouri is out the window.  
- I suspect it will hurt his chances of keeping Ohio.  Evangelicals will come out more strongly for Romney and his support among Catholics in Toledo and northeast Ohio will suffer.
- It will strengthen him in his core states of NY, MA, VT, CA, WA, OR, perhaps CO.  
- It could hurt just enough in Iowa to cost him those 6 EVs.  

I'm troubled by why he even makes the announcement.  It's not like he can overturn DOMA or change Supreme Court opinions into mandating it as a civil right.  Don't we have enough challenges in the country that render this announcement by his holiness as being off the wall and inconsequential to the real fundamental issues we are facing?

- Get the economic recovery in gear.
- Figure out how to fund social security and medicare.
- Stop the bleeding and deaths of our troops in Afghanistan.

On balance, I view this as an attempt (and it will be hugely successful) to bring in lots of dollars from his key support base who may have been somewhat luke-warm to his campaign, to get media attention (and favorable at that since the elite liberal media now have renewed passion to spew out on the main networks and MSNBC), and take attention away from his otherwise miserable record.  





  

[ModerateCoward]

Well, up front I'll state that I['m opposed to gay marriage but that is incidental, I suppose. 

This definitely won't hurt him as much as it would have if he had come out in favor of polygamy!  As for specific states:

- He can definitely kiss off carrying North Carolina and Indiana this year. 
- Any chance he had for Missouri is out the window. 
- I suspect it will hurt his chances of keeping Ohio.  Evangelicals will come out more strongly for Romney and his support among Catholics in Toledo and northeast Ohio will suffer.
- It will strengthen him in his core states of NY, MA, VT, CA, WA, OR, perhaps CO and VA. 
- It could hurt just enough in Iowa to cost him those 6 EVs. 

I'm troubled by why he even makes the announcement.  It's not like he can overturn DOMA or change Supreme Court opinions into mandating it as a civil right.  Don't we have enough challenges in the country that this announcement by his holiness is off the wall?

- Get the economic recovery in gear.
- Figure out how to fund social security and medicare.
- Stop the bleeding my our troops in Afghanistan.

On balance, I view this as an attempt (and it will be hugely successful) to bring in lots of dollars from his key support base who may have been somewhat luke-warm to his campaign, to get media attention (and favorable at that since the elite liberal media now have renewed passion to spew out on the main networks and MSNBC, and take attention over his otherwise miserable record. 





 

That's why. He is building his firewall in case the popular vote goes for Romney.

[Secretary Polnut]

I don't know why people don't see the strategy... this issue has been circling Obama from both sides for months, and as the election got closer, it was likely to intensify... by putting it out there in May, it takes the issue around him to an extent off the table.

Obama's never said anything about 'passing gay marriage'... because he can't.

He's done almost everything he can do as president, to ignore what he sees as the discriminatory laws when it comes to equality. As has been rightly stated by many commentators, Obama himself was lagging behind the actions of his administration.

And from the practical side, of course! Obama made a political calculation, that he benefits more from being honest out of this and solidifying himself and the base behind an increasingly popular attitude... than trying to play both sides of the street and copping it from traffic going in each direction.

The clear calculation is that those who are opposed strongly enough to gay marriage for them to change their vote... probably weren't going to vote for him anyway... since so many already think he supported it in the first place.

It will make NC, MO, OH, VA more difficult... but they're still doable.

[rbt48]

I don't see how NC is "doable" for Obama this year.  He carried it by 14,000 votes (0.32%) in 2008 and it just voted against same-sex marriage 60 to 40. 

[Secretary Polnut]

I don't see how NC is "doable" for Obama this year.  He carried it by 14,000 votes (0.32%) in 2008 and it just voted against same-sex marriage 60 to 40. 

That comes down again to that question... is Obama's personal support enough to turn them off voting for him regardless of anything else?

I think people need to be REALLY careful trying to marry (NPI) these two votes together too much.

Obama can and will certainly win people who don't support gay marriage, his issue will be turnout and what his statement has cost him. 

[FloridaRepublican]

Little to no effect. He's definitely more polarizing.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't see how NC is "doable" for Obama this year.  He carried it by 14,000 votes (0.32%) in 2008 and it just voted against same-sex marriage 60 to 40. 

In November 2008, Obama opposed Prop. 8. Los Angeles county voted for Prop. 8 while Obama won it by 40 points.

[True Federalist]

Considering that the people strongly opposed to gay marriage were already generally convinced Obama was pro-gay marriage (and he had already come out as anti-DOMA and pro-civil union)  I don't see this as being much of a negative.  I don't see this as much of a positive either.