If Obama endorsed same sex marriage, would it help his campaign?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Helps in the right swing states(Colorado & Virginia) but makes an above 300 EV landslide a lot less likely.

I think it helps sure up his firewall, but weakens his chances at the GOP-leaning hanging fruit.

It'll force up evangelical turnout, but fire up his base just as much.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't know why people don't see the strategy... this issue has been circling Obama from both sides for months, and as the election got closer, it was likely to intensify... by putting it out there in May, it takes the issue around him to an extent off the table.

Obama's never said anything about 'passing gay marriage'... because he can't.

He's done almost everything he can do as president, to ignore what he sees as the discriminatory laws when it comes to equality. As has been rightly stated by many commentators, Obama himself was lagging behind the actions of his administration.

And from the practical side, of course! Obama made a political calculation, that he benefits more from being honest out of this and solidifying himself and the base behind an increasingly popular attitude... than trying to play both sides of the street and copping it from traffic going in each direction.

The clear calculation is that those who are opposed strongly enough to gay marriage for them to change their vote... probably weren't going to vote for him anyway... since so many already think he supported it in the first place.

It will make NC, MO, OH, VA more difficult... but they're still doable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't see how NC is "doable" for Obama this year.  He carried it by 14,000 votes (0.32%) in 2008 and it just voted against same-sex marriage 60 to 40. 

That comes down again to that question... is Obama's personal support enough to turn them off voting for him regardless of anything else?

I think people need to be REALLY careful trying to marry (NPI) these two votes together too much.

Obama can and will certainly win people who don't support gay marriage, his issue will be turnout and what his statement has cost him.