Dalton to face McCrory in N.C. governor's race

[Progressive Realist]

Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton captured the Democratic primary for governor Tuesday, setting up a general election race with former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory that will feature two baby boomers regarded as moderates by their own parties.

Dalton, a small-town lawyer from Rutherford County, defeated one of the party’s veteran war horses, former U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge. With 62 counties reporting, Dalton was leading Etheridge 46 percent to 38 percent, with state Rep. Bill Faison of Orange County with less than 6 percent.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/05/09/3227736/dalton-to-face-mccrory-for-governor.html#storylink=cpy

[MilesC56]

Here's where I think this race will stand on election day, all else held constant:



McCrory probably wins by 4 or 5 points.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

McCrory wins and become the first GOP governor of NC in 20 years.

[MilesC56]

Which makes it even worse...the first Republican General Assembly since Reconstruction is very unpopular.

[nclib]

With the GOP likely to keep both houses due to gerrymandering, could Dalton use this as an argument for divided government (i.e. split control)?

[MilesC56]

With the GOP likely to keep both houses due to gerrymandering, could Dalton use this as an argument for divided government (i.e. split control)?

Yes, that would seem to be a good case he could make. Pat McCrory ran as the moderate who could work with either side in 2008, but now he's Mr. Conservative. He's kinda like NC's own version of Mitt Romney.

It seems like, from what he's said so far, he'll do a more effective job of working with the assembly than Perdue. Perdue was right to veto the budget two years in a row, but I don't think it would be good to have go through that every year of the next decade.

[hopper]

With the GOP likely to keep both houses due to gerrymandering, could Dalton use this as an argument for divided government (i.e. split control)?

Yes, that would seem to be a good case he could make. Pat McCrory ran as the moderate who could work with either side in 2008, but now he's Mr. Conservative. He's kinda like NC's own version of Mitt Romney.

It seems like, from what he's said so far, he'll do a more effective job of working with the assembly than Perdue. Perdue was right to veto the budget two years in a row, but I don't think it would be good to have go through that every year of the next decade.

He better run as his moderate self in the general though since you have to appeal to the center. I know McCory had to run to the right in the primary obviously.

[BigSkyBob]

Which makes it even worse...the first Republican General Assembly since Reconstruction is very unpopular.

Then again, so are the Democrats in the legislature:


"The poll showed voters view Republican and Democratic lawmakers unfavorably by identical margins, 48 percent to 28 percent."

I guess Bev Perdue isn't helping their cause.

http://www.ncinsider.com/2012/07/12/128344_approval-rating.html

[MilesC56]

Which makes it even worse...the first Republican General Assembly since Reconstruction is very unpopular.

Then again, so are the Democrats in the legislature:


"The poll showed voters view Republican and Democratic lawmakers unfavorably by identical margins, 48 percent to 28 percent."

I guess Bev Perdue isn't helping their cause.

http://www.ncinsider.com/2012/07/12/128344_approval-rating.html

I already I pointed that out on another thread....

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

On NC Spin, a local political show, they said that Dalton is basically broke.

[MilesC56]

On NC Spin, a local political show, they said that Dalton is basically broke.

McCrory's fundraising advantage does worry me very much.

Etheridge shouldn't have run in the primary; otherwise, Dalton would be in better shape now.

[MorningInAmerica]

On NC Spin, a local political show, they said that Dalton is basically broke.

McCrory's fundraising advantage does worry me very much.

Etheridge shouldn't have run in the primary; otherwise, Dalton would be in better shape now.

I've always been a fan of McCrory's, though his support of Amendment 1 really disappointed me. But I'm completely convinced Dalton is finished. NC will probably be electing its first Republican governor since 1988 in November.

[MilesC56]

On NC Spin, a local political show, they said that Dalton is basically broke.

McCrory's fundraising advantage does worry me very much.

Etheridge shouldn't have run in the primary; otherwise, Dalton would be in better shape now.

I've always been a fan of McCrory's, though his support of Amendment 1 really disappointed me. But I'm completely convinced Dalton is finished. NC will probably be electing its first Republican governor since 1988 in November.

He was a good mayor, I'll admit that. Charlotte really grew under his tenure.

What worries me is that he could be a rubber stamp for the Assembly. With the Rs favored to hold both chambers, barring a D wave, the only way the Ds will have a seat at the table this decade is via the Governorship.

As much as I support Dalton, my best scenario of election night is looking like McCrory/Coleman.....

[Jbrase]

Here's where I think this race will stand on election day, all else held constant:



McCrory probably wins by 4 or 5 points.

How could McCrory win statewide and not win Mecklenberg county? He almost won it despite losing by 4 points statewide in 2008.

[MilesC56]

Here's where I think this race will stand on election day, all else held constant:



McCrory probably wins by 4 or 5 points.

How could McCrory win statewide and not win Mecklenberg county? He almost won it despite losing by 4 points statewide in 2008.

I was debating about that.

Dalton's 2008 opponent was Bob Pittenger, a State Senator who, like McCrory, had a base in Meckleburng county. Dalton got 56% in the county.

I was going to update this map soon and I'll probably flip Mecklenburg.

[psychicpanda]

Here's where I think this race will stand on election day, all else held constant:



McCrory probably wins by 4 or 5 points.

McCrory would have to win Meck county to win the state, if Dalton stays that strong in the east (and mountains).  I think Dalton may overperform Obama down east and on his home turf, but McCrory will win Mecklenburg, Forsyth... maybe Guilford and Wake.