NC Amendment 1 results Map

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Thanks for making these map, Miles -- they're great.

High Point does make a lot of sense, demographically.  Quite a few blacks, and also a lot of whites working jobs in light industry.  Seems like prime territory for a pretty nasty swing.

[MilesC56]

Amendment 1 failed in CD12 by about 1180 votes.

For reference, it was packed even more tightly during redistricting so that its 49.6% black VAP and 78% Obama. 

[Senator Sbane]

It doesn't look like black voters were that far from the state results. Actually it's likely they voted more against than the state.

[nclib]

How in the WORLD did it lose Chatham - but not Guilford or Forsyth?

For Chatham, I'd say its because of its proximity to Chapel Hill; there was a huge GOTV the vote effort there.

Exactly. Chatham has a rural feel, but there are a good number of people who are still part of the Chapel Hill community, who are looking for a cheaper or bigger place.

Also, Guilford only missed by .06%.

Comparing Against % minus Obama % of 2 party vote:

Best overperformance:

Orange   6.30%
Dare   5.27%
Carteret   1.68%
New Hanover   0.48%
Wake   -0.54%

Dare, Carteret, and New Hanover are all right on the coast.

Worst underperformance:

Robeson   -43.18%
Hertford   -40.98%
Bertie   -38.45%
Edgecombe   -37.66%
Vance   -36.41%

Robeson is 38.4% Native American and 24.3% Black. Hertford, Bertie, and Edgecombe are majority black. Vance is plurality black.

Worst underperformance among majority white counties:

Bladen   -34.31%
Columbus   -31.08%
Richmond   -28.15%
Sampson   -27.85%
Tyrrell   -27.53%

[shua]

What do you mean by "worst underperformance"?

[nclib]

What do you mean by "worst underperformance"?

Worst % for the anti-amendment (pro-gay) side compared to (minus) Obama% of the 2-party vote in 2008, by county.

The urban/rural split is very large--only 11 (out of 100) counties voted more pro-gay than the state average--the 8 counties where it didn't pass, and Guilford (Greensboro), New Hanover (Wilmington), and Forsyth (Winston-Salem).

[Smash255]

Okay either there is income, education, racial links to these results. Or the Obama supporters moved to the Southern part of the county in the past 4 years. The latter is very unlikely though, so I assume the former.

Combination of factors likely, one key one being transplants.  South Charlotte has a TON of New Yorker's and other transplants (my parents are just over the border in the tip of Lancaster).

Its pretty much the same thing in portions of Wake.  Cary is a prime example.  Its not quite as Republican as South Charlotte (more of a swing area), and was very strongly against the Amendment,

[MilesC56]

Does anyone else have requests for more NC precinct-level maps of Amendment 1, or any other primary election?

[Joe Republic]

Thank you for doing NC-12! 

How about NC-1 and NC-3?

[MilesC56]

Ok, sure. I'll have those up in the next few days.

[MilesC56]

Ugghhh...I'm mapping out CD1 right now. Senator Bob Rucho, who drew the map, needs to be thrown out of office just for the sheer number of precincts he split unnecessarily in eastern NC.

[nclib]

Miles, would you assume that only NC-4 and NC-12 voted against? Results by 2000s CD lines would be much more interesting (since they actually reflect communities of interest)--likely NC-4, NC-12, and NC-13 would be against along with perhaps NC-2 or NC-8.

[MilesC56]

Miles, would you assume that only NC-4 and NC-12 voted against? Results by 2000s CD lines would be much more interesting (since they actually reflect communities of interest)--likely NC-4, NC-12, and NC-13 would be against along with perhaps NC-2 or NC-8.

I was actuallyy thinking about that.

Even though the new CD4 is 72% Obama, I think Amendment 1 would have failed by a wider margin in the old CD4 (63% Obama).

After I finish the new CD1 and 3, I'll do the old 13th and 4th.

[nclib]

Keep the maps coming, Miles. Though the precinct data outside urban areas is bleak--only 40 (of 100) counties even have at least one precinct against the amendment.

[MilesC56]

And now for CD1. This was 70.5% Obama, 74% Perdue and is 52% black VAP. Overall, the Amendment 1 results were pretty similar to the state as a whole.
If you exclude Durham, it passed in the rural areas with 67%.

Also, I couldn't account for the split precincts, so the numbers will be slightly off in some counties.

[MilesC56]

Moving on, Amendment 1 passed in CD3 by 65/35. The only pockets of opposition were in Wilmington, Dare County and a handful of precincts in Greenville.

[homelycooking]

And now for CD1. This was 70.5% Obama, 74% Perdue and is 52% black VAP. Overall, the Amendment 1 results were pretty similar to the state as a whole.
If you exclude Durham, it passed in the rural areas with 67%.

Also, I couldn't account for the split precincts, so the numbers will be slightly off in some counties.

Whoever drew that...thing needs to be dragged into the street and shot.

[Senator Napoleon]

Whoever drew that...thing needs to be dragged into the street and shot.

There aren't many living members of the 89th Congress to shoot.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

And now for CD1. This was 70.5% Obama, 74% Perdue and is 52% black VAP. Overall, the Amendment 1 results were pretty similar to the state as a whole.
If you exclude Durham, it passed in the rural areas with 67%.

Also, I couldn't account for the split precincts, so the numbers will be slightly off in some counties.

Whoever drew that...thing needs to be dragged into the street and shot.

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn.

[MilesC56]

Whoever drew that...thing needs to be dragged into the street and shot.

There aren't many living members of the 89th Congress to shoot.

Yes, its a VRA district, but it didn't have to be that ugly.

Some other masterworks of unnecessary racial packing from the NCGOP are this and this.

[MilesC56]

The old 4th and 13th are in the works.

[MilesC56]

I had smaller shape-files on hand for the old districts, so I'm just using those.

Here's the old 13th. It was very close. I'd say Amendment One's margin in Rockingham county (where it got almost 76%) was the reason that it passed here.

[nclib]

Comparing the 2012 presidential vote with the anti-gay amendment (more telling than 2008), the counties where the anti-amendment vote outdid Obama's % of 2-party vote are:

Dare   8.67%
Orange   7.49%
Carteret   4.80%
Watauga   2.42%
New Hanover   2.09%
Chatham   1.44%
Moore   1.17%
Wake   0.94%

Orange, Chatham, and Wake are in the Triangle; Dare, Carteret, and New Hanover are on the coast; Watauga is App. State Univ.; Moore is surprising since it is a retiree and golfing area.

The counties where the anti-amendment did the "worst" were:   

Robeson   -45.03%
Hertford   -42.40%
Bertie   -39.52%
Edgecombe   -38.51%
Vance   -37.23%

Robeson is 38.4% Native American and 24.3% Black. Hertford, Bertie, and Edgecombe are majority black. Vance is plurality black.

For white maj. counties, the "worst" are:
   
Bladen   -34.26%
Columbus   -31.12%
Richmond   -28.88%
Sampson   -26.61%
Gates   -25.66%