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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  PPP-IA 2016: Clinton 62% Biden 14%; Huckabee 16% Santorum 16% Christie 15%
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Author Topic: PPP-IA 2016: Clinton 62% Biden 14%; Huckabee 16% Santorum 16% Christie 15%  (Read 1509 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: May 10, 2012, 03:58:51 pm »
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PPP 2016 poll of Iowa:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_050912.pdf

Clinton 62%
Biden 14%
Cuomo 4%
Warren 4%
Feingold 2%
Schweitzer 2%
O'Malley 1%
Warner 0%

If Clinton doesn't run:

Biden 28%
Cuomo 14%
Warren 10%
Feingold 9%
Schweitzer 2%
Warner 1%
O'Malley 0%

If neither Biden nor Clinton run:

Cuomo 17%
Feingold 15%
Warren 13%
Schweitzer 4%
O'Malley 3%
Warner 1%

Clinton actually does better among self-described liberals than self-described moderates, and she's at 66% among women and 57% among men.  She also does better with voters over 45.

GOP:

Huckabee 16%
Santorum 16%
Christie 15%
J. Bush 10%
Palin 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Rubio 7%
Ryan 5%
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2012, 05:36:38 pm »
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Awesome Cheesy
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LastVoter
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2012, 06:52:42 pm »
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Well at least Cuomo doesn't automatically win if Biden and Clinton don't run, I'd say he is the worst of the bunch. As much as I hate Biden for being a hawk, I think I'd prefer him to a political dynasty. Hopefully neither runs so that the voters can deliver a defeat to the establishment in form of Feingold or Schweitzer.
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R2D2
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2012, 07:10:09 pm »
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J. Bush 10%
Palin 10%
Rand Paul 9%

Sad
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2012, 07:41:47 pm »
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Cheesy

Kind of wanted to see Feingold's number higher, though.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2012, 08:12:07 pm »
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Nice to see Feingold at a close second to that ass Cuomo (if Clinton/Biden don't run which I think they won't).
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2012, 10:11:17 pm »
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That's my girl ;-)
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2012, 10:13:12 pm »
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Too bad he didn't run against Walker, he would have almost certainly won.
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Scott
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2012, 10:22:02 pm »
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Too bad he didn't run against Walker, he would have almost certainly won.

So very true.
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2012, 10:35:13 pm »
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Name recognition, as are all these polls this far out. Hillary running is simply not happening while the idea of PEU neuterer Andy Cuomo making it past the Democratic base is laughable. I'll put my money on my favorite Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer.


For the GOP side, Ryan would be my first and only choice from that poll.
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2012, 10:36:27 pm »
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Undecided is only 9%? WTF?
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EmersonAdams
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2012, 11:03:06 pm »
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I'd vote for Clinton if she ran, but my heart is really in the Fiengold/Warren wing of the party. Schweitzer is pretty good, too. My feeling is pretty much anyone but Cuomo.

Also, PPP is polling New Hampshire next week, so maybe well get sone 2016 numbers from them as well.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2012, 06:02:57 am »
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Well, a 2016 poll before the 2012 election is even half-over seems a bit silly. The only thing you can really tell from this is that the base apparently loves Hillary, doesn't want Biden any closer to the nuclear launch codes, and mostly doesn't really know the other candidates.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2012, 07:36:54 am »
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What, specifically, is the source of the Cuomo hate from the Dems here?  I haven't really followed his term as guv very closely.

Anyway, who's winning on the GOP side among each demographic group:

Tea Party member: Christie
not Tea Party member: Christie/Santorum tie
not sure if Tea Party member: Huckabee
Evangelical: Huckabee
not Evangelical: Bush
moderate: Paul
somewhat conservative: Christie
very conservative: Santorum
men: Santorum
women: Huckabee
Republicans: Huckabee/Santorum tie
Independents: Christie/Paul tie
age 18-45: Santorum
age 46-65: Huckabee
older than 65: Christie/Huckabee tie

Democratic candidates' favorable/unfavorable ratings among Democratic voters:

Clinton 88/6 for +82
Biden 76/6 for +70
Warren 31/8 for +23
Feingold 28/11 for +17
Cuomo 26/17 for +9
Warner 10/11 for -1
O'Malley 6/7 for -1
Schweitzer 7/9 for -2

Republican candidates' favorable/unfavorable ratings among Republican voters:

Huckabee 69/12 for +57
Palin 70/17 for +53
J. Bush 62/9 for +53
Santorum 68/17 for +51
Rand Paul 54/15 for +39
Rubio 46/7 for +39
Ryan 44/8 for +36
Christie 50/16 for +34

Biden and Clinton have extremely high name recognition, but the rest of the prospective Democratic candidates are all pretty unknown, with less than 50% having an opinion of them.  Whereas all of the prospective Republican candidates being polled here have >50% with an opinion of them.  Yes, strange as this would have been a couple of years ago, Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio are now both more famous than Russ Feingold.

Clinton's favorables among Dems are incredibly good (especially in a state where she came in 3rd in the 2008 caucuses).  When was the last time any presidential candidate began a race with numbers like that, aside from incumbent presidents?
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2012, 07:49:21 am »
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Interesting....I can't see the Tea Party loving Christie when more of his views become known
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R2D2
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2012, 08:00:49 am »
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Schweitzer 7/9 for -2
[...]
Palin 70/17 for +53

WTF
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2012, 08:15:22 pm »
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Schweitzer 7/9 for -2
[...]
Palin 70/17 for +53

WTF

Republicans still love Palin, though most don't want her to be president.

And no one knows who Schweitzer is, and people with very low name recognition tend to get poor fav/unfav ratios.
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« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2012, 01:07:58 pm »
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Schweitzer 7/9 for -2
[...]
Palin 70/17 for +53

WTF

Republicans still love Palin, though most don't want her to be president.

And no one knows who Schweitzer is, and people with very low name recognition tend to get poor fav/unfav ratios.


^

The people who are likely to know him are the ones that love him or hate him, and hating someone is easier.
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