Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 20, 2014, 06:33:44 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: True Federalist, Former Moderate, Badger)
| | |-+  anybody notice how in CA, the % of DTS voters
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: anybody notice how in CA, the % of DTS voters  (Read 453 times)
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2369
United States


View Profile
« on: May 11, 2012, 12:04:45 am »
Ignore

is often correlated with income. It seems that in the high income areas, particularly on the coast, you have the highest % of voters who don't want to be labeled under either party. In the more lower and middle income areas, there aren't very many DTS voters.

In particular, I noticed how the northside of San Diego (much of the turf in the 90s 49th and 51st districts) had huge DTS populations while the areas with the lowest DTS populations were in the Inland Empire and especially the Central Valley.

My main hypothesis is that in middle or working class areas, particularly in small or mid-sized cities, politics is mostly about alliegance. The owners, bosses and managers vote republican and the workers vote democrat and nobody really thinks twice when voting. In an area like Silicon Valley or North San Diego, voters have a hell of a lot of different ways of expressing themselves politically.
Logged

-1.38, -1.38
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13628


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2012, 01:01:35 am »
Ignore

As a DTS voter it makes sense. A lot of people in these well to do areas in the Bay Area, the beach cities, north SD and parts of OC to a certain extent are socially liberal but don't feel totally comfortable with Democrats on everything. They will maybe vote for the Democrats because they hate the Republicans more but at the same time vote no on all taxes. And in years like 2010 they might vote Republican. I didn't vote Republican in 2010 but I did vote no on all taxes.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32488


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2012, 01:06:02 am »
Ignore

As a DTS voter it makes sense. A lot of people in these well to do areas in the Bay Area, the beach cities, north SD and parts of OC to a certain extent are socially liberal but don't feel totally comfortable with Democrats on everything. They will maybe vote for the Democrats because they hate the Republicans more but at the same time vote no on all taxes. And in years like 2010 they might vote Republican. I didn't vote Republican in 2010 but I did vote no on all taxes.

The wave sort of missed California in 2010.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13628


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2012, 03:32:23 pm »
Ignore

As a DTS voter it makes sense. A lot of people in these well to do areas in the Bay Area, the beach cities, north SD and parts of OC to a certain extent are socially liberal but don't feel totally comfortable with Democrats on everything. They will maybe vote for the Democrats because they hate the Republicans more but at the same time vote no on all taxes. And in years like 2010 they might vote Republican. I didn't vote Republican in 2010 but I did vote no on all taxes.

The wave sort of missed California in 2010.

If you look at the Boxer-Fiorina race, the swing back from Obama was 14 points which is the same as the nation. And the areas that swung back the most are the ones I mentioned.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12975


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2012, 03:40:11 pm »
Ignore

What is the actual correlation between %DTS and median income?
Logged

krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6039


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2012, 05:55:49 pm »
Ignore

California seems to have many fewer Democrats than 30 years ago but far more partisans. As a result the possibility of Pete Wilson and such winning statewide went away with it.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13628


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2012, 06:22:46 pm »
Ignore

The possibility of Pete Wilson being elected went away with prop 187.....though not immediately obviously.
Logged
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6854
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2012, 06:52:45 pm »
Ignore

What is the actual correlation between %DTS and median income?

0.4286 according to my calculations.
Logged

"The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return."
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32488


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2012, 12:32:44 am »
Ignore

As a DTS voter it makes sense. A lot of people in these well to do areas in the Bay Area, the beach cities, north SD and parts of OC to a certain extent are socially liberal but don't feel totally comfortable with Democrats on everything. They will maybe vote for the Democrats because they hate the Republicans more but at the same time vote no on all taxes. And in years like 2010 they might vote Republican. I didn't vote Republican in 2010 but I did vote no on all taxes.

The wave sort of missed California in 2010.

If you look at the Boxer-Fiorina race, the swing back from Obama was 14 points which is the same as the nation. And the areas that swung back the most are the ones I mentioned.

The Democrats picked up the governor's seat, another statewide office, and increase their members in the state Assembly to a 38 year record, and none of the 66 Democrats to go down in the House was in California. A wave may have hit California in 2010, a small Democratic one.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13628


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2012, 04:57:32 am »
Ignore

As a DTS voter it makes sense. A lot of people in these well to do areas in the Bay Area, the beach cities, north SD and parts of OC to a certain extent are socially liberal but don't feel totally comfortable with Democrats on everything. They will maybe vote for the Democrats because they hate the Republicans more but at the same time vote no on all taxes. And in years like 2010 they might vote Republican. I didn't vote Republican in 2010 but I did vote no on all taxes.

The wave sort of missed California in 2010.

If you look at the Boxer-Fiorina race, the swing back from Obama was 14 points which is the same as the nation. And the areas that swung back the most are the ones I mentioned.

The Democrats picked up the governor's seat, another statewide office, and increase their members in the state Assembly to a 38 year record, and none of the 66 Democrats to go down in the House was in California. A wave may have hit California in 2010, a small Democratic one.

In the California state assembly Democrats won by 58-40 in 2008, so an under performance compared to Obama. In 2010 it went down to 54-44 but the Democrats actually gained a seat. The Sacramento area should be interesting to watch going forward....The state senate didn't change much. There was definitely a swing back to the Republicans in California in 2010, but it was not as visible in the state races since a lot of these DTS voters who voted for Obama usually vote Republican and did in the state races. In spite of the ridiculous "Obamacans" meme, the real reason why Obama almost won OC, won in wealthy north SD cities and ran up the numbers in the beach cities, Silicon Valley and the inland east bay is due to these DTS voters. Of course this is not to say there aren't a lot of DTS voters elsewhere (as the correlation provided above proves) but in these areas you have a lot of former Republicans/ leaners hanging about and there is a slight correlation between these wealthier areas and higher DTS registration.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2012, 05:00:37 am by Senator Sbane »Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines