Who will win Wisconsin's 2012 gubernatorial recall election?

[Gravis Marketing]

Walker by about 3 or so.

[OC]

Barrett by a pt or 2

[Scottyp65]

The problem is nobody really knows how to poll.  What is the baseline?  The Marquette poll everyone looked at with Walker up by 6 or 7 got that way because baselines were changed.  No way there are that many undecideds here all breaking for walker.  Another poll, from a dem showed 49-49.  Franklin (the guy who runs the Marquette poll) came out today and praised the dem poll as being accurate that its a dead heat, and importantly, that is what his numbers are showing too.  The dem poll is later, too.

It will all come down to turnout.  If the passion and heat still exists on dem side, Barrett will win by a point or two.  If not, Walker will win by a point or two.  Walker will NOT win by 7.

I'm going to go with Barrett to squeak by.  The latest ads by walker are absolutely ridiculous and smell of a bit of desperation.  The results out of Milwaukee County will be the decider.

[Senator Snowstalker]

The race is tightening, and it looks like it will entirely be a measure of GOTV; since Barrett is consistently tied or leading with independents, if the Democrats can mount a ground game to match Walker's air superiority, they will win. If they can't mobilize their forces, Walker squeaks by.

[krazen1211]

Lol.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/30/scott-walker-recall-tom-barrett-obama_n_1556893.html?



Walker wins by 6 points.

[ag]

Walker; by a margin that might not even have us wait for Waukesha reporting (yes, I know, the lady's been replaced, I am joking ) )

Then, of course, this is a fairly bizarre election, so more than the usual cautions about polling should apply.

[For Oklahoma]

Walker by 4

[Senator X]

Walker by 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if Barrett won.