Obama / gay marriage polls

[Tender Branson]

Kansas:

"President Obama says that same-sex couples should be able to get married. Do you agree with the president? Or disagree? "

42% Agree
55% Disagree

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=56545f79-edf1-4b23-af01-31c6563209d9

Fresno-Visalia DMA:

46% Agree
49% Disagree

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ce2eae11-d826-400b-b416-72200dc18a54

Tampa-Saint Petersburg (Sarasota) DMA:

48% Agree
50% Disagree

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=19d08f8c-5d0f-4c66-966c-c68db117490f

San Diego DMA:

51% Agree
44% Disagree

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c094f652-80d8-434a-9f4b-b33b5cf9e142

Los Angeles DMA:

50% Agree
46% Disagree

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f9439bf2-de0c-4ebc-a18e-3539b1937ce8

San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose DMA:

61% Agree
32% Disagree

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c8794ef5-f425-4d17-90b7-0db8202bdeb7

[Pacific Councillor LiberalJunkie]

Weird how in San Diego Blacks and Hispanics agree more then whites.

[Tender Branson]

Weird how in San Diego Blacks and Hispanics agree more then whites.

Wealthy and educated Blacks maybe ?

Contrary to the religious Black nuts in the South and Midwest ...

[BaldEagle1991]

Any poll numbers out of Houston, Atlanta, or New Orleans?

[Big Wiggly Style]

Any poll numbers out of Houston, Atlanta, or New Orleans?

Or Compton for that matter.

[BaldEagle1991]

Any poll numbers out of Houston, Atlanta, or New Orleans?

Or Compton for that matter.

If there was one for Compton, that would be surprising.

[Big Wiggly Style]

Any poll numbers out of Houston, Atlanta, or New Orleans?

Or Compton for that matter.

If there was one for Compton, that would be surprising.

It'd be funny.

[BaldEagle1991]

I'd also like to see one out of Obama's homeland: Chicago.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Interesting that the most socially conservative age group in San Francisco is under 25s, while the most liberal are the oldest San Franciscans.

[BaldEagle1991]

Interesting that the most socially conservative age group in San Francisco is under 25s, while the most liberal are the oldest San Franciscans.

Older San Frans = Former hippies of the 1960's and 1970's.

Younger San Frans = People just moving in the 2000's with a load of money.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Interesting that the most socially conservative age group in San Francisco is under 25s, while the most liberal are the oldest San Franciscans.

I'll repeat again that crosstabs generally aren't to be taken seriously unless they represent at least 200 people or so.

[cavalcade]

Tampa and LA are closer than I would have thought (in opposite directions).

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Tampa and LA are closer than I would have thought (in opposite directions).

It seems that Obama's bringing up the issue has reduced support back to the level it was in 2007-2008 or so (assuming that other polls confirm this).  Support for SSM had increased by 20 points or so among Republicans, looks like partisanship reversed that.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Isn't this known in the industry as a "loaded question"?

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Isn't this known in the industry as a "loaded question"?

It is actually, but it's not looking good for Obama if merely associating his name with a position causes it to become substantially more unpopular (and in heavily minority/Democratic urban areas too).

(Of course, I'm guessing that associating Romney's name with something has the same effect...)

[Progressive Realist]

Weird how in San Diego Blacks and Hispanics agree more then whites.

San Diego whites are rather right-wing for a big city (military and defense contractors, etc.)  and in the inland suburbs they are just as conservative as South Orange County, for example.

[The Mikado]

Tampa and LA are closer than I would have thought (in opposite directions).

It seems that Obama's bringing up the issue has reduced support back to the level it was in 2007-2008 or so (assuming that other polls confirm this).  Support for SSM had increased by 20 points or so among Republicans, looks like partisanship reversed that.

I'm not totally sure I agree.  42% in support of gay marriage in Kansas was actually considerably higher than I was expecting.

[Progressive Realist]

PRINCETON, NJ -- A majority of Americans, 60%, say President Barack Obama's newly announced support for same-sex marriage will make no difference to their vote. Twice as many say it will make them less likely to vote for Obama as say more likely, though roughly half of the "less likely" group are Republicans who probably would not support Obama anyway.

The results are based on a May 10 USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in response to Obama's May 9 announcement that he supports legalizing gay marriage. Obama is the first president to publicly support gay marriage while in office. The poll finds 51% of Americans approving of his position, essentially matching the 50% of Americans who support gay marriage in general, and similar to his 49% overall job approval rating.

The six in 10 Americans who say Obama's position on same-sex marriage will not affect their vote could be an underestimate because Republicans disproportionately make up the group who say they are less likely to vote for Obama, and Democrats disproportionately make up the group who say they are more likely to vote for him. It is probably safe to assume, given the strong relationship between party identification and vote choice, that most of those voters would have voted for or against Obama regardless of his view on gay marriage.

Partisans' responses to the question may therefore indicate more of a change in the intensity of their vote choice as opposed to an actual change in the candidate they support.

Thus, a key to assessing how the change in Obama's view of same-sex marriage will affect his vote share this fall would be to look at its effect on independents, and on Democrats and Republicans whose views are different from the majority of their party.

Specifically, 23% of independents and 10% of Democrats say it makes them less likely to vote for Obama, while a smaller 11% of independents and 2% of Republicans say it makes them more likely to vote for Obama. Those figures suggest Obama's gay marriage position is likely to cost him more independent and Democratic votes than he would gain in independent and Republican votes, clearly indicating that his new position is more of a net minus than a net plus for him. However, those figures also underscore that it is a relatively limited group of voters -- about one in three independents and fewer than one in 10 Republicans or Democrats -- whose votes may change as a result of Obama's new stance on gay marriage.

more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/154628/Six-Say-Obama-Sex-Marriage-View-Won-Sway-Vote.aspx

[Pacific Councillor LiberalJunkie]

Good news for Obama, at least the second poll which doesn't show a total disapproval of Obama's statement which some people figured would happen.

[cavalcade]

Well, we knew that 51-52% supported same sex marriage.  The question is what the deal is with these more likely/less likely people and how many of them are just going to end up voting the same way they had planned.

[Governor Scott]

Very good news.  This is definitely a net-positive, and most people who said they were more or less likely to vote for him probably already decided anyway.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

(+13)+(-26)=(-13)

How exactly is that a net positive?

[Secretary Polnut]

(+13)+(-26)=(-13)

How exactly is that a net positive?

Because the poll didn't ask undecided voters. Most who said less likely weren't voting for him and the more likely probably already were.

[shua]

(+13)+(-26)=(-13)

How exactly is that a net positive?

Because the poll didn't ask undecided voters. Most who said less likely weren't voting for him and the more likely probably already were.

that would mean it's a wash at best.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Interesting that SF bay area men are more likely to agree than women.
And there is certainly an enormous difference between Bay area Hispanics versus LA Hispanics.