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Author Topic: Kyle Bass: Greece a failed state, Euro will collapse, Japan debt crisis next  (Read 3412 times)
ag
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« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2012, 07:52:00 pm »

With the bank run that has begun, the return of the drachma is inevitable now.  People aren't going to keep euros in Greek banks when they fear they'll be turned in drachmas overnight.  I can't see the current Greek non-government being in a position to halt the run anytime soon, and by the time something could be done, it will be too late, as there will not be the necessary trust for people to put the money back even when what needed to be done to stop the run has been done.

One has to just hope, you are wrong. The spontaneous transition will be very unpleasant. Perhaps, they still can stop the run. One can only hope.
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« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2012, 08:13:37 pm »
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There are certainly policies that policymakers could enact that would turn things around. If they're not "plausible" it would only be because the will to make the right decisions is lacking. All of Europe needs exPansionsry policies now. In some areas (such as wages) Germany needs them most of all. Of course the narrow policies needed vary from country to country. But that just proves the need for cooperation, because no country is an island and none can succeed without the help of others. I do not argue that the movements of the right and left arm be identical, but I do want them to both move together with the aim of picking up the object (in this case trade imbalances) to avert the greatest economic disaster in Europe in our lifetimes
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« Reply #27 on: May 16, 2012, 08:22:12 pm »
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The more money you try to pump into the European economy, the more of it is going to wind up in Germany.

Well of course, it is a capitalist arrangement - all the money ends up in the hands of the villains, but the point is you keep putting more into the hands of the victims so that the cycle of misery and victimization can continue forever.  
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« Reply #28 on: May 16, 2012, 08:47:27 pm »
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The more money in German hands the better. Increased demand in Germany will be essential to rebalancing.

The strategic costs of a breakup of the EZ also must be considereds as it is the greatest of all costs. In a stroke, Europe's chance to punch its weight in the world and challenge the dollar as the world's premiere currency are shattered. The dream of a European superpower speaking with one authoritative voice in a world of rising powers like China and India would be dealt a mortal blow. In a way it would almost be in the American long run interest for Europe to fail, but it would be a defeat for any human attempt to transcend petty nationalism and thus a sort of defeat for all humanity.
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« Reply #29 on: May 17, 2012, 10:31:15 am »

To make the dream of one voice come true it would have helped to have one elected government. Starting with one currency was putting the cart before the horse and it produced what it was designed to produce: a pipe dream. If you want to continue dreaming, nothing prevents you from calling all the splinter currencies "euro" (as in Greek euro, German euro, French euro, etc.) You know: close the window shades, sing "tuc-tuc-tuc, tuc-tuc-tuc" and dream of a long and eventful rail travel.  
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« Reply #30 on: May 17, 2012, 12:20:10 pm »
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With the bank run that has begun, the return of the drachma is inevitable now.  People aren't going to keep euros in Greek banks when they fear they'll be turned in drachmas overnight.  I can't see the current Greek non-government being in a position to halt the run anytime soon, and by the time something could be done, it will be too late, as there will not be the necessary trust for people to put the money back even when what needed to be done to stop the run has been done.

One has to just hope, you are wrong. The spontaneous transition will be very unpleasant. Perhaps, they still can stop the run. One can only hope.

If Greece actually had a government, it probably could stop the run and at least delay the crisis longer.  But it doesn't.
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« Reply #31 on: May 17, 2012, 02:37:33 pm »
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To make the dream of one voice come true it would have helped to have one elected government. Starting with one currency was putting the cart before the horse and it produced what it was designed to produce: a pipe dream. If you want to continue dreaming, nothing prevents you from calling all the splinter currencies "euro" (as in Greek euro, German euro, French euro, etc.) You know: close the window shades, sing "tuc-tuc-tuc, tuc-tuc-tuc" and dream of a long and eventful rail travel.  

Except the currency hasn't splintered. It's still salvageable. 70% of Greeks want to remain on the Euro. The Chancellor of Germany wants the Greeks to remain on the Euro. The head of the ECB wants Greece to remain on the Euro. The heads of ND, Syriza, PASOK, and DIMAR want Greece to remain on the Euro. All the significant parties all agree. The only one dreaming is you. The real dream? The real dream is the notion that high inflation is somehow a threat in this situation. High inflation is not, and never will be a problem so long as the Euro holds together. I am willing to bet anything on that.
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« Reply #32 on: May 17, 2012, 03:10:41 pm »

But Greece NEEDS high inflation. Anything else simply won't do the trick, since it would not get Greece from under the impossible obligations. Greece needs to become much cheaper compared to Germany, and doing it through nominal cuts seems to be politically impossible. If the easing you are proposing is not going to cause inflation, it is going to solve exactly nothing, as far as Greece is concerned.

Anyway, don't you find it remarkable that even though everybody (from Merkel to Tsipras) has been consistently claiming they want Greece to stay in the euro, with each passing day we are getting closer and closer to Greece existing the euro?
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« Reply #33 on: May 17, 2012, 04:24:19 pm »
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Well yes, we are getting closer to it because on both sides (Germany and Greece) have not been doing what is needed. I still hold out hope that faced with the reality of disaster that a breakup would be, it would push politicians to do the right thing. This generation of politicians has a redenzvous with destiny. But compared to what their mothers and fathers and mentors faced, it is nothing. Nothing. Their mothers and fathers faced Soviet tanks along a 1,000-mile front. It appears that this sharpened their senses, put the fear of god in them, and gave them a proper appreciation of social stability, keeping down debt levels, regulating finance, having a strong middle class, controlling unemployment, of coordination, and community, between nations. The current generation finds it more difficult. Well, it does not need to be as hard as it is being made out to be. This is no natural disaster or war. It is a matter of relations between communities of humans and as such, it can almost by definition bet worked out in an orderly fashion, provided that those involved have the will to do so. That is my view.

Greece can also get out from under obligations by default. It defaulted earlier this year and the banks ate their losses; this did not cause huge problems because it was controlled. So Greece does not need inflation. Currently, most of their obligations are to the official sector, IIRC. As long as the interest rate is low, it will not be a problem. Official sector obligations don't face liquidity problems; they're under the control of officials. Greece's repayments can be extended indefinitely, or even OSI can be brought in. But if Greece leaves the euro, of course there is no way Greece will be able to repay anyway.
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« Reply #34 on: May 17, 2012, 07:40:06 pm »

First about the default.

Once Greece defaults it will have to deal w/ a likely bank run and a shortage of cash euros. The former will be dealt with by instituting capital controls. The latter by paying things w/ Greek government IOUs that will become the de facto money: remember, the real obligations that matter a pensions and sallaries to the Greeks themselves, and, it seems, these aren't under the control of the Greek government. Even if these are formally denominated in euros, these will be "Greek euros" traded at a discount. The actual euros will be the store of value under the mattrasses and in accounts Greeks have in German banks.

So, de facto Greece will be out of the euro, even if no political decisions to that extent are taken. Returning to real euros will require either deliberately engineering serious deflation (with all that implies), or reintroducing euro at a rate different from 1:1. There is ample precedent from the 19th century of return to the gold standard after a forced suspension (say, during a war). It wasn't an easy thing to do even then, when financial markets were a lot less developed and important for the actual economy.
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« Reply #35 on: May 17, 2012, 07:49:26 pm »

Now, about the "rendez vous with history." It's not the current generation of the politicians who have it - it's the previous one. Though, of course, they didn't even notice that, when they took the decisions that brought us where we are now. They followed the usual European pattern of pushing through an economic integration project that went far ahead of what the political institutions could sustain in the hope that, once the economic situation is changed, political integration will be forced to follow. This is how European integration had been done for decades - but this time they badly over-reached (and also bit the Greek poison pill - special thanks to Dr. Papademos)

For the single European currency to be sustainable, we would need such a serious surrender of national sovereignty to the European government, that not even the Greeks are willing to discuss it, not even today. So, it looks like it won't happen, and euro system will have to be seriously modified instead. Which modification, probably, includes a smaller single currency area, at least for a while. Even if Greece is somehow kept in the euro zone during the current crisis, it will be out within years - or else, it will be annexed into Bavaria, which doesn't seem likely Smiley)

Don't blame Merkel: she's been dealt a crappy hand. Blame Kohl: he dealt it.
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« Reply #36 on: May 17, 2012, 08:08:00 pm »
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Ok, by previous generation I meant the generation previous to that of Maastricht. Admittedly the Maastricht generation screwed up - of course. No one is disputing that their actions brought us to where we are today, which is the crisis.

I do not agree that a single European currency *requires* the ultra-unity in politics that you are talking about, the full monty of federal government. Admittedly, nor does it require as little as was sold to Europeans, or as little even as German politicians would admit today. The truth is somewhere in the middle. It requires a common central bank and a common currency policy, and it requires long-term transfers between some countries to others, but it does not require one country to come in and take over the budget of another, nor does it require full political union. In fact, in a non-crisis situation, there would be no problem with the voluntary exit of one member. The present situation is unique only because contagion means Greek exit would be interpreted as a signal for Italian exit. Fix the PIIGS problem and you have addressed the issue. This can be accomplished with a significant move towards political and monetary union, but not nearly so extreme "annexed into Bavaria" which you claim.

Finally about default. There will be no shortage of cash euros as long as the Bank of Greece remains in the Eurosystem and Target2. A bank run would be pointless because any reserves lost from withdrawal of euros would be replaced by Target2 euros from the Bank of Greece. They would be full euros, not Greek government IOUs. There need be no reset of the exchange rate.

Serious wage deflation at the moment is just what Greece needs. Germany herself precisely did comparative wage deflation in 2002-2010 to lower unemployment. Greece needs the same. The failure of Greek politicians is that they have not broken downward wage rigidity, failed to reform the collective bargaining system, and this has resulted in huge unemployment. With wage deflation, Greek unemployment would be addressed within the market system. The same is true for Spain and Italy. But at the same time Germany needs wage inflation. If German nominal wages increased by 5% per year and Greek wages fall a modest 2% per year, then within four years a 30% competitiveness gap and be eliminated. The process already started in 2011.
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« Reply #37 on: May 17, 2012, 08:27:30 pm »

1. Greece will not stay in Target 2 post-default. If it does, within the next 5 to 10 years euro will be the currency of Greece, and Greece alone.

Target 2 operating like that is, essentially, opening an unlimited back-door credit line for the Greeks. Greece staying in Target 2 would, basically, mean that every European country can print as much cash as it likes, without much control. If that happens, every government that does not print obscene ammounts would be grossly irresponsible towards its own citizens: if you print cash, you spread the inflation accross the euro zone, while concentrating the benefits on your own; if you don't - well, if you don't, you are a sucker and should be voted out of office ASAP. If there is a surer way of guaranteeing that euro won't survive to 2020, I don't know it.



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« Reply #38 on: May 17, 2012, 08:29:01 pm »

2. Yes, Greece needs wage deflation. A big part of the problem is that this is politically impossible to impose. Had Greece been Latvia, there would have been something to discuss. But then, you know full well what would happen if grandma had balls, don't you?

Within 4 (ok, 3) years, at the present rate of political change, Greece will be governed by KKE, the Golden Dawn or the military - and all this duscussion will be moot.
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« Reply #39 on: May 17, 2012, 08:37:27 pm »

3. Big fiscal transfers require a finance ministry, properly responsible to a legitimate elected body. There is only so far you can get by subterfuge. Either Europe is a democracy or not - and, at present, there are no democratic institutions that would make the present euro architecture sustainable. That's the problem.

The problem w/ non-crisis exit is that outside of a crisis it would be very hard to force it. Imagine yourself as a Greek PM when things, are, finally, looking up. Are you going to commit political suicide by voluntarily moving to drachma, when it does not at all seem urgent? You may very well know, that unless you do it, sh**t will hit the fan in another 5 or 10 years. But in 5 or 10 years you will be retired or voted out of the office anyway. Let that SOB Popandopulos (hypothetical leader of the opposition) do it after the next election!
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« Reply #40 on: May 17, 2012, 09:06:52 pm »
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1. Greece will not stay in Target 2 post-default. If it does, within the next 5 to 10 years euro will be the currency of Greece, and Greece alone.

A wild, unproven assertion, most likely backed up by the reasoning below:

Quote
Target 2 operating like that is, essentially, opening an unlimited back-door credit line for the Greeks. Greece staying in Target 2 would, basically, mean that every European country can print as much cash as it likes, without much control.

As it happens, each central bank within the Eurosystem is empowered to create Euros. But the amount of Euros created is determined by joint agreement within the Eurosystem. Also, the central banks are politically independent by law. So no, it does not mean every European country can print as much cash as it likes. The role of a central bank is to provide liquidity to the banking system, precisely to prevent bank runs, and this is exactly the role the Bank of Greece fulfills as a member of Target2. No more.

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If that happens, every government that does not print obscene ammounts would be grossly irresponsible towards its own citizens: if you print cash, you spread the inflation accross the euro zone, while concentrating the benefits on your own; if you don't - well, if you don't, you are a sucker and should be voted out of office ASAP. If there is a surer way of guaranteeing that euro won't survive to 2020, I don't know it.

There you go again, with the inflation specter. At the end of the day your position comes down to "oh no high inflation!" As I said earlier, I would bet anything that high inflation will not become a problem so long as the Euro stays intact. The fact of the matter is, if what I want happens governments will not print cash endlessly, because they are not "rational" automatons. They are led by people with a capacity for a human thing known as thought, therefore they will not be rational Tongue And they will not be voted out of office for not printing endlessly.

The present rate of political change can reverse if Greece's unemployment rate drops, which is the point of wage deflation. Unlike 2008-2012, under wage deflation the total sum earned by Greek workers would not have to fall continuously. Rather the sum earned would be more spread out as new entrants into the work force lowered the average wage. But the point is they would be coming out of unemployment. Wage rigidity is a form of price control and it is always inefficient. The same reasoning applies in Spain and Italy.

I agree that Greek politicians have failed thus far. Perhaps px75 can elaborate more on this. The point is if their forebears fought the Cold War, surely these guys can reform collective bargaining.

Finally, I am talking about monetary transfers, not fiscal transfers. This is nothing new. The Common Agricultural Policy is an example of a big transfer. More to the point the very existence of a common currency is a big transfer. This is not subterfuge, or at least it should not have been. The value of the Euro in the pocket of every EZ member is influenced by the activities of people in other EZ countries. It is obvious. And it is the democratic institutions of Europe which have created it all to begin with.

Now, what democracies make they can unmake. But thus far there is no hard evidence for it. The only real revolt against the system thus far is a revolt against austerity (by SYRIZA coming in second). There was no electoral revolt against the Euro in Greece itself. There is no electoral revolt against the Euro in Germany either. Nor in France. Pro-Euro parties have won overwhelming majorities in all elections in all countries.
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« Reply #41 on: May 17, 2012, 09:13:38 pm »

It is precisely because the banks are "led by people by people with a capacity for a human thing known as thought" that there is a problem. I would not at all be afraid of "rational automatons", it's the people that are the problem Smiley) (BTW, "rational" in economics means ONLY "having complete and transitive preferences" - it's an extremely mild technical requirement, unless one specifies what those preferences are; anyways, none of my argument really depends on it).

We all know, voters don't care about printing money: they don't know what it is. They will not be voted out of office for refusing to print money. They will be voted out of office for forcing their own countries into deep economic sh**t by refusing to print money.





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« Reply #42 on: May 17, 2012, 09:20:20 pm »

Post-default Greek government will not have money to pay pensions, salaries or suppliers - not in its bank account (remember, the economy will still be shrinking at that point). Having done the default for the explicit purpose of avoiding further cuts, and having come to office with an explicit promise not to impose them, it will be hard pressed to continue cutting. So, either it stops paying salaries/pensions/suppliers, or it starts paying them in scrip (BTW, I believe, in a few cases it has already started - at least as far as suppliers are concerned).

If, as you say, this may be remedied by printing more euros through the Target 2 system, this implies that the Greek Central Bank authorizes the government to issue money, when there is none in its account. At that point, I don't care whether the Greek central bank is legally independent or not - nor would, sorry to say this, ECB care about it. No money means no money. Either you can't remedy it through Target 2 - or, if you can, Target 2 will destroy the euro. As simple as that.
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« Reply #43 on: May 17, 2012, 09:28:14 pm »

The reason I stress the inflation "specter" is twofold.

1. Greece needs inflation, because it seems to be the only way its government can collect taxes/lower its obligations at this point. It's highly inefficient and, generally, horrible, but there seems to be no other way that doesn't involve a revolution. So, unless there is (sizeable) inflation, I do not see how it will prevent Greece from being kicked out of the euro.

2. Every short-term institutional solution to the present crisis that you propose is not sustainable, because it is almost deliberately designed to destroy the euro through inflationary pressures. The problem is not monetary expansion as such (it may very well be necessary, though unlikely to be sufficient) - the problem is in the institutional changes proposed (such as the rape of the Target 2). And once these changes are made, they will be hard to credibly undo post-crisis. That is the real danger: they will provoke the next crisis, and sooner, rather than later.
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« Reply #44 on: May 17, 2012, 09:30:30 pm »

Common Agricultural Policy is a fiscal transfer - and a huge piece of crap, of course. But it is peanuts compared to what's needed now, I am afraid.

The existence of the common currency IS a big transfer. And that's precisely why it's falling apart right now.
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« Reply #45 on: May 17, 2012, 09:34:43 pm »

Finally, note. Nobody really wants to destroy the euro, everybody, from Merkel to Tsipras, is claiming to be doing their best to preserve it. But, collectively, they are tearing it apart. They are NOT doing it because they are mistaken - but because they've been put into a situation, where all their incentives are to pull the euro apart (if they don't, they are national traitors and should be shot - or, at least, kicked out of office). You are seriously claiming that if you give national governments even stronger incentives to print money they won't do it? I am afraid this is ascribing those people an unnatural, almost heroic, ammount of altruism and willingness to self-sacrifice. These folks are human - that's why they are doing it.
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« Reply #46 on: May 17, 2012, 09:36:43 pm »

Greek unemployment will drop after Greece deflates, no doubt. When will that happen? As you say, in 3-4 years. So, are we supposed to have a little military dictatorship till then, or you are fine w/ something like KKE coming to power and taking Greece out of Europe in the meantime? It's not like there are many other realistic alternatives, are there?
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« Reply #47 on: May 17, 2012, 10:05:38 pm »
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I am claiming that the kind of incentive you are talking about will not lead to a spiral of ever more printing. Your reasoning is essentially that since a national government can print a euro, and the decline in the value of the euro from that print is spread across all national governments, then printing is always a net gain and they will print to infinity. That makes sense from the perspective of a 'rational' actor but not a thoughtful actor.

To take an example, the same set of incentives applies to the United States. Other countries (mostly Asian exporters) try to hold down the value of their currencies to the US, so the more the US prints, the more dollars they buy; or the more they depreciate their own currencies and make their goods cheaper for Americans. $7 trillion or thereabouts is held as reserves. So the US government has the incentive to print endlessly. And indeed it has printed a lot, but not endlessly, not enough to send the US CPI above its historical average. Certainly not enough for hyperinflation or to destroy the currency. Why is the Federal Reserve not being rational then? Because it is not suicidal, that is why.

In the Euro, the way it works is simple. Enough money is printed to keep countries of experiencing massive crisis and being forced to leave the zone. But not enough is printed to keep politicians happy. There is a medium in between. I am not proposing giving national governments carte blanche. But printing enough to stave off a banking collapse in Greece [or for that matter, default in Spain] is hardly giving its government carte blanche.

If the agreement between Greece and the Troika collapses, the government may indeed face the situation you face. The Greek banking system could be funded through Target2, but the Greek government itself of course would not be. It may indeed issue IOUs, which may indeed be worth less than real Euros. It would be forced austerity, and I agree that it would not be popular. But that is why Syriza's promises are lies, unfortunately. It is tragic. But it would leave Greece independent, and the choice bare.

In such a situation I think Greeks would be faced with the truth finally and the decision whether to leave the Euro or not. At that point I think Greece should hold a referendum like the Papandreou referendum on the Euro. So long as they know what they are choosing, and the politicians are not lying to them about the consequences. If Greek voters chose the Drachma in that case, I would not oppose it of course. But not until then, should Greece leave.
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« Reply #48 on: May 17, 2012, 10:18:21 pm »

The incentives US government faces are radically different from those incentives that euro nations would face in the world you propose. Yes, of course, the current system was designed not to create such destructive incentives: that is why enforcement of austerity was hard-wired into the project. What you are proposing is to blow up those defenses - in a hope that agents would somehow act against both their short-term and long-term interest.

US government can cheat once - if it prints too much money and inflates, it will screw the world big time, but enjoy a one-time "debt forgiveness". Of course, thereafter the dollar will loose its reserve status and US will have to pay much higher interest on its debt - and the negatives will so far outweigh the positives that nobody is even thinking of it.

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« Reply #49 on: May 17, 2012, 10:23:33 pm »
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The defenses would not be blown up because Greece has put forth a strong effort to cut its budget. Had it not put forth such incredible effort, it would not be worth saving perhaps, but it has. The only major area of fail is wage rigidity, but the government spending drop of 8.7 percent of GDP in two years is very impressive.
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