What scenario is the unlikeliest?

[diarrhea]

tough

[crypto-fascist superhero]

1, obviously.

[diarrhea]

1, obviously.

But it happened quite often: 1840, 1848, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1992.

I'd say it's not likely to happen again in the near future, but it's not "obviously" unlikely, since Georgia has been trending blue.

[Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.]

In 2012? Option 1.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

1, obviously.

But it happened quite often: 1840, 1848, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1992.

I'd say it's not likely to happen again in the near future, but it's not "obviously" unlikely, since Georgia has been trending blue.

Actually, Georgia has been trending red over the past few election cycles.

[politicus]

tough

No. Vermont will vote D and the chance of Georgia going to the Dems in this election is extremely small. Both the other scenarios are unlikely, but not nearly as unlikely as that one.

[Nichlemn]

1, obviously.

But it happened quite often: 1840, 1848, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1992.

I'd say it's not likely to happen again in the near future, but it's not "obviously" unlikely, since Georgia has been trending blue.

#2 happened in 1824, 1836, 1840, 1848, 1860, (VA not voting in 1864/8) 1880, 1888, 1896, 1900, 1904, 1908, 1916, 1920, 1924, 1940, 1994, 1948. It hasn't happened recently, but it nearly did in 2008 and could easily do so this year.

#3 only happened in 1824 and 1848, which makes sense because voting together AND for the loser are quite stringent conditions, especially as Missouri has historically had a bit of a Democratic lean and Ohio a bit of Republican one. Now that they both have Republican leans, it's quite plausible. Obama could win without Ohio this year, which would likely have him lose Missouri too, satisfying the condition.

[Mister Mets]

It's an interesting question.

I'll go with #1.

Ohio and Missouri are both more right-leaning than the rest of the country, so it's possible for the states to support a Republican candidate who loses a general election.

Virginia is the ultimate swing state. In 2008, it was closer to the national average than any other state. And it's been leaning more Democratic lately. Hell, in a close election it's possible for Obama to win Virginia, and lose the electoral college. It's something the Romney campaign has to consider in their strategy.

The least likely event is a candidate winning Vermont and Georgia. But Georgia's still in play for a Democrat during a major landslide. And we've all been spoiled by close elections in 2000 and 2004, so it's easy to forget that landslides are the norm.