did the New Deal Coalition have a much shorter lifespan than commonly thought?

[freepcrusher]

Most people have said that the New Deal Coalition didn't die out until the Reagan era. In my own opinion, it died off much sooner than that. I often think of 1938 as a major turning point. The democrats lost 72 house seats and some senate seats too and many of them to this day have not been reclaimed (mainly in the rural midwest). Although the democrats had a majority, it was probably a very uncontrollable one with a lot of apostate democrats who supported the Taft-Hartley act and had grown wary of new deal programs. The spirit of FDR's liberalism wasn't really revived until the late 1950s/early 1960s when there was a huge influx of young liberals representing northern districts such as Bob Kastenmeier, Don Edwards, Ben Rosenthal, George McGovern etc.

[Nym90]

Yes and no.

The size of FDR's coalition was clearly unsustainable in the long term.

However, the coalition stayed together more or less until 1968, and parts of it remain to this day. And many if not most of the policy changes enacted under Roosevelt had major long term ramifications and remain in place today also.

[hcallega]

The New Deal Coalition at its peak lasted from 1932 to 1938. It would have been unimaginable for it to remain unified for much longer, as there were several groups with opposing interests on important issues. The recession of the late 1930s along with the court packing fiasco played a role in the 1938 losses, along with the Republican gains in 1940 and 1944. However, the heart of the New Deal coalition existed until 1968. Unions, liberals, African-Americans, urban political machines, Catholics, and southerners still formed the base of the party until then. A political coalition does not need to remain dominant for it to still exist, and the Democratic Party was largely defined by this group for 36 years. Nixon's victory in 1968 broke the New Deal coalition, but it did not replicate its success. It was Reagan who filled the void and crafted the Republican coalition that still largely exists to this day (though its effectiveness is waning due to demographic shifts).

[Beet]

Ironically, some scholars say that the New Deal coalition wasn't fully manifested until the 1936 election. If it ended in 1938, then it would have been in existence for only one election. One muddling facet is that the 'conservative coalition' of conservatives in both parties had a majority in Congress from 1938 through 1964, and by some accounts again from 1966 into the 1970s and even 1980s. Many members of the conservative coalition were also members of the New Deal coalition. The New Deal coalition was purely a partisan coalition. Some members of the New Deal coalition later turned against the New Deal itself, but remained loyal Democrats and supporters of FDR. The conservative coalition however, was an ideological coalition that blocked progressive legislation.

[Adam Griffin]

You could theoretically stretch the effects of the New Deal Coalition on the Democratic Party all the way until 1994, when the Republicans finally took back the House. Despite conservatism among southern Democrats, the tenets of the New Deal's economic message held for quite some time. You might be able to stretch it out even further; another thing to consider is that between 1933-2003 (70 years), Republicans only controlled the House, Senate and Presidency for 2 years. Democrats managed to do the same for 32 out of 70 years.

[hcallega]

It's certainly true that parts of the New Deal Coalition persisted long after 1968, even to this day (African-Americans, liberals, and labor unions). But on the whole, the coalition ceased to exist in 1968. A crucial cause for this was the Democratic Convention that year. The conflict between the liberal intellectuals and the more rank-and-file members of the Party (labor, urban bosses, working class whites). That split, followed by Nixon's support among many Democratic voters, broke the coalition (as did Wallace's surprisingly strong support). The nomination of George McGovern in 1972 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 offer further proof in claiming that the coalition died in '68. Reagan's ability to build upon Nixon's gains was most clearly illustrated by his landslide victory over a fairly mainstream New Dealer, Walter Mondale. Today's Democratic coalition, while still containing elements of the NDC, is quite different from that of the past. Even the makeup of organized labor is considerably different. The party today is more of a "rainbow coalition" than anything else, and is driven more by social rather than economic conditions.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Carter was the comeback tour of the NDC. However, let's look at it, based on my AP History teacher's acronym for it--SLUBIJ.

S=White Southerners.  These are mostly gone from the party, other than a couple isolated Appalachians and yuppies in VA/NC/GA/FL (though most of them are Northern transplants)

L=Labor. Not as vital to the party, but unionized people still vote strongly Democratic. The problem is that unionization rates are declining with work-for-less laws and a perception that unions are no longer necessary for the good of the employees.

U=Urban voters. Still in the party, and even more important than they were before.

B=Blacks. First voted D in 1936 and never left.

I=Immigrants. In the 30's this meant Italians, Greeks, Serbs, etc. Though these people have settled in, their place in the NDC has been taken by Hispanics for the same reasons; economic issues and the GOP being hostile towards immigration (much more in the 20's and 30's than today, actually).

J=Jews. Not a big demographic, but them being affluent, they're important donors, and still vote heavily Democratic.

So, while the New Deal Coalition has changed, over half of it still exists as the Democratic base (labor, blacks, immigrants, Jews)

[All Along The Watchtower]

^^^Regarding white Southerners...besides the obvious issue of race, it doesn't help the Democrats that the South has developed a suburban middle class that is not so keen on helping out the little guy.

[Person Man]

Well, I have a trollish saying that half of modern Republican voters are "racists who used to be democrats" and that half of Democratic voters are "stoners who used to be republicans".

And that's sort of the case if you take the SLUBIJ approach. With the overextension of civil rights, the outsourcing of manufacturing and the assimilation of Italians and Slavs, that's half of the NDC gone. I mean, if the Democrats tried to rely on the NDC today, this is what their map would look like-

In other words, it would be 1988 all over again...in fact, that's pretty much what 1988 was- the last election where the Democrats relied on what was left of the NDC. They got 111 votes then, on this map, they get 91....and that could be generous.

...What's interesting about the Republicans is that they slowly transitioned into their modern day coalition of the Energy Industry (only good blue collar jobs left in this country), Neoconservatives (who are less important as they are running out of boogymen), strict moralists and what's left of their old coalition of East Coast professionals, Midwestern businesspeople and West Coast and Rocky Mountain libertarians.

If the republicans relied on what they used to rely on today, they would get this-

Pretty much 1964 over again, but Goldwater was already beginning the transition in earnest....by winning 4 deep south states.

....Basically, the parties swapped two constituents- Various East Coast Professionals for Southern Whites and parts of the conservative Remnant Labor constituency.

Red- New Deal Dems
Blue- Gilded Age Republicans
Green- The New Right
Yellow-  The New Left

A more or less 50/50 map that shows a narrow Obama victory while illustrating trends. In this scenario, I would think that the Republicans would narrowly capture the Senate by winning 5 seats and the Democrats would gain half a dozen seats in the house.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Parts of it still exist today in the form of the Clinton coalition.  Moderates, blacks, Latinos, etc. all vote Democrat but wouldn't if Clinton hadn't changed the electoral map so much (it hasn't gone back and probably won't for a while).

[BritishDixie]

The coalition was destroyed in 1968. Union Members, if not the Labour Unions themselves, split heavily, with about 40%-50% becoming solid Republicans until '92. They were the crux of the coalition, and without them, the coalition couldn't work.

An interesting point though would be that the coalition was never reassembled in its entirety after 1936. FDR's re-elections in 1940 and '44 were much close in the popular vote than the electoral vote might suggest.