Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 25, 2014, 07:44:56 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections
| | |-+  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  GA-Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone: Romney+11
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: GA-Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone: Romney+11  (Read 1174 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34618
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« on: May 11, 2012, 11:25:55 pm »

51-40 Romney/Obama

Would you support or oppose changing Georgia's law to permit same-sex marriage?

27-59 Oppose

Does the president's support of same-sex marriage make you more or less likely to vote for him?

29-53 Less Likely

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/poll-shows-most-georgians-are-opposed-gay-marriage/nN4Z8/
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1733


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2012, 11:29:54 pm »
Ignore

No way Obama only gets 40%. 44-45% is absolutely his floor in the state, and I should know, I live here for gods' sake. I think pollsters are underestimating the minority vote in Georgia. The black vote was 30% in 2008, and it only dropped 2 points, to 28%, in the 2010 midterms.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34618
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2012, 11:34:05 pm »

It's also a GOP pollster and they once produced this:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=136535.0

Roll Eyes
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1733


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2012, 11:40:09 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, seems fishy to me. Georgia is undergoing a political transformation similar to what's happening in VA or NC. We still have a distinctly conservative tilt but Romney aint winning by 11 points. Especially since, ironically, the people here most likely to vote Republican are the people most likely to have issues with Romney's faith.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
NE Caretaker Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5886
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2012, 12:01:48 am »
Ignore

Garbage. Did they mix up our numbers with Alabama's? Also, was this a robo-survey like the one you linked to above? As Tender pointed out, Landmark is absolutely terrible at polling within Georgia. Cope's right: the floor here - barring a total collapse of AA turnout - is 45% now. Also, AA turnout is pretty solid as a % of the population in both presidential and mid-term years (mainly because all statewide elections take place in mid-term years).

Worst-case scenario turnout in 2012:

White (64%) @ 20% for Obama: 12.8%
Black (28%) @ 95% for Obama: 26.6%
Other (8%) @ 60% for Obama: 4.8%

Obama: 44.2%, and that's with white support dropping to unseen levels in GA.

Best-case scenario turnout in 2012:

White (60%) @ 25% for Obama: 15.0%
Black (32%) @ 95% for Obama: 30.4%
Other (8%) @ 60% for Obama: 4.8%

Obama: 50.2%.

I'd say somewhere in the middle - with the white vote being around 62% and the AA vote being around 30% - is the most likely, giving Obama around 47%. The demographic gains in the state will be cancelled out by mild drops in turnout and some exurbanites switching back to R, leaving him where he was in 2008. Come 2016, however, this state will go Democratic (as long as the nominee is white).
« Last Edit: May 12, 2012, 12:15:16 am by Adam Griffin »Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34618
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2012, 08:46:56 am »

Come 2016, however, this state will go Democratic (as long as the nominee is white).

... and moderate/conservative. A Mike Beebe or a Mark Warner would probably win Georgia against a Mitt Romney type of candidate.
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1733


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2012, 02:50:35 pm »
Ignore

And I also want to predict that Cobb and Gwinnett counties will be unbelievably close this year. Whoever wins will do it by 1-2 points. Conservative suburbanites are fleeing Cobb and Gwinnett and being replaced by minorities, immigrants, and left leaning yuppies (especially in the more urban areas of Cobb).

Cobb is becoming more like Fairfax county, VA and Gwinnett is becoming more like Middlesex County, NJ - in terms of demographics
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4400
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2012, 02:58:55 pm »
Ignore

And I also want to predict that Cobb and Gwinnett counties will be unbelievably close this year. Whoever wins will do it by 1-2 points. Conservative suburbanites are fleeing Cobb and Gwinnett and being replaced by minorities, immigrants, and left leaning yuppies (especially in the more urban areas of Cobb).

Cobb is becoming more like Fairfax county, VA and Gwinnett is becoming more like Middlesex County, NJ - in terms of demographics

What about the northern part of Fulton County around Alpharetta?
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1733


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2012, 03:08:46 pm »
Ignore

And I also want to predict that Cobb and Gwinnett counties will be unbelievably close this year. Whoever wins will do it by 1-2 points. Conservative suburbanites are fleeing Cobb and Gwinnett and being replaced by minorities, immigrants, and left leaning yuppies (especially in the more urban areas of Cobb).

Cobb is becoming more like Fairfax county, VA and Gwinnett is becoming more like Middlesex County, NJ - in terms of demographics

What about the northern part of Fulton County around Alpharetta?

Demographically, it's similar to a lot of the democratic leaning upscale suburbs up north, but it's still pretty strongly Republican. It has a lot of Jewish people, for instance, but most I've spoken to about politics are also Republicans. There has been some sort of a shift among the white residents up there, so the vote isn't as uniformly GOP as it is elsewhere in the state, but they still skew strongly Republican.

The Asian population is BOOMING up there, so when they become politically active, the area could swing to the Democrats.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4400
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2012, 03:49:33 pm »
Ignore

Do you think the secession plans of the northern part of the county, to recreate Milton County, will be successful?
Logged
NE Caretaker Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5886
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2012, 03:56:58 pm »
Ignore

And I also want to predict that Cobb and Gwinnett counties will be unbelievably close this year. Whoever wins will do it by 1-2 points. Conservative suburbanites are fleeing Cobb and Gwinnett and being replaced by minorities, immigrants, and left leaning yuppies (especially in the more urban areas of Cobb).

Cobb is becoming more like Fairfax county, VA and Gwinnett is becoming more like Middlesex County, NJ - in terms of demographics

What about the northern part of Fulton County around Alpharetta?

Demographically, it's similar to a lot of the democratic leaning upscale suburbs up north, but it's still pretty strongly Republican. It has a lot of Jewish people, for instance, but most I've spoken to about politics are also Republicans. There has been some sort of a shift among the white residents up there, so the vote isn't as uniformly GOP as it is elsewhere in the state, but they still skew strongly Republican.

The Asian population is BOOMING up there, so when they become politically active, the area could swing to the Democrats.

North Fulton has a long way to go before it becomes Democratic. While much more diverse than the surrounding exurbs of Cherokee and Forsyth, it's less Democratic than areas of west Gwinnett like Norcross. North Fulton has a promising future with about 35% minority at the moment (12/12/12, AA/L/AS), but there's a decent amount of the Latino community there that is ineligible to vote and highly entrenched WASPs that are not leaving nor are they voting Democratic.

I tend to think that the vast majority of northern expansion for Democrats in the Atlanta area has manifested and is hitting the proverbial brick wall known as Cherokee, Forsyth and Hall. All three of these counties are near 80% Republican and have extremely high voter registration rates. I do think Cobb and Gwinnett will both flip within the next few years, but it will be primarily from added growth and diversification in the southern parts of these counties. Even though growth in Forsyth, Cherokee and Hall over the past 10-20 years has been phenomenal, it's mainly growth among demographics that favor Republicans as they flee Atlanta.

The Atlanta Democratic machine will find expansion to the south, east and west (Douglas, Henry, Spalding, Rockdale, Newton) to be the most advantageous in the coming years.

Do you think the secession plans of the northern part of the county, to recreate Milton County, will be successful?

I hope not. They've been yakking about it for years to no real avail. We already have 159 counties, geez.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2012, 04:01:56 pm by Adam Griffin »Logged
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16183
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2012, 04:10:35 pm »
Ignore

The GOP gerrymander will probably give them enough votes in the General Assembly after November to pass the constitutional amendment required to create Milton County. In addition, the new legislative map includes several Republican districts that barely dip into Fulton County, so the otherwise Democratic Fulton County delegation won't have a majority to block it via local deference. A new Milton County is definitely something that's possible, if not even likely; the most likely path for its failure would probably be South Georgia Republicans voting against it out of apathy towards suburban concerns (either in the Assembly, or in the subsequent referendum).

For the record, North Fulton is, and probably always will be, a solidly Republican area. It was one of the first areas to begin voting GOP when they first started becoming competitive in the state. It's populated by a bunch of rich McMansion-dwelling suburbanites that'll be voting for their economic interests no matter what.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2012, 04:14:29 pm by Bacon King »Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.

old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1733


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2012, 04:17:57 pm »
Ignore

The brick wall is definitely the Northern arc of Cherokee, Forsyth and Hall, but I think you're underestimating North Fulton. I'm not from North Fulton but my entire family is. I have relatives in Sandy Springs, Roswell and Alpharetta. Many of the people that live there are Republicans, but unlike whites in other areas of the state, they're more willing to vote for the right kind of Democrat. Most are transplants who are fairly worldly and open to new ideas and new cultures, which money tends to afford, so they're not as stunted by things like race.

If there's a deep dislike for Obama up there, it actually is probably related to his policies, and likely has little to do with a primal fear of his race or background. Republican support in N Fulton is tied strongly to lower taxes and streamlined government.

I can definitely see North Fulton swinging away from the GOP at least from the state level. When the seeds of the GOP were sown here several decades ago, they were based in the growing suburbs of Atlanta. These people were sick of the good 'ol boy network of Democrats who funneled money into South Georgia and other rural areas of the state.

In the past 10 years, the Georgia GOP has become much more associated with rural, white conservatives in South Georgia, and they've established their own good ol boy network among Republicans down there. If voters in North Fulton feel like the party has abandoned them, they might be willing to support a fiscally moderate Democratic party that has their needs in mind.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
NE Caretaker Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5886
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2012, 03:43:58 am »
Ignore

I think you're right about the constituency of North Fulton but BK's also right: they're going to vote their economic interests. Even if Romney and the Republicans are going off the deep end, it's not that much of a worry to many of them, so long as they vote economics. I think because it's part of Fulton, we automatically think it can vote like Fulton. Look at it on a map, however, and it clearly is in the latitude of the Brick Wall. You could split it down 400 and the parts would mesh almost seamlessly into Cherokee's and Gwinnett's demographics.  It probably should be its own county, if for no other reason than different constituencies and it's the largest county.

Also, this occurred to me: were the questions asked in the order stated here? I would assume yes, but if the same-sex marriage question was asked before the presidential preference question, I could see that skewing the result to favor Romney.

 
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10230
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2012, 07:46:38 am »
Ignore

One likely difference between suburban Atlanta and suburban Northern cities (this is likely so also in the Dallas-Fort Worth area as well) is that residents are more likely to have origins in the rural South. Such people would be more attuned to the political culture of the rural South -- and of course more Republican. They are more likely to be members of fundamentalist or evangelical churches heavily concentrated in the South, and they are have a less flattering view of black people. 
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1733


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2012, 02:00:18 pm »
Ignore

Here's a picture of Fulton county that shows correlation between a precinct's vote and its minority presence.



By and large the more minority a district is, the bluer it will be. North Fulton is pretty red, but there are some notable blue or swing districts in the region, that don't always correspond with a high minority population. For instance, Sandy Springs gave Obama about 46% of the vote, yet the minority vote in this town was only between 18-19%. Clearly, not every rich, white person in Sandy Springs was voting for their economic interests. Things could swing back with Romney on the ticket, but I think for some of these voters, supporting the more progressive and worldly candidate trumps economic interests (since many in Sandy Springs are rich beyond belief and know their money aint going anywhere)
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
timothyinMD
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 441


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2012, 07:37:04 pm »
Ignore

No way Obama only gets 40%. 44-45% is absolutely his floor in the state, and I should know, I live here for gods' sake. I think pollsters are underestimating the minority vote in Georgia. The black vote was 30% in 2008, and it only dropped 2 points, to 28%, in the 2010 midterms.

And despite "only" dropping to 28% the Dems could only muster 39% in the Senate race and 43% in the Gov race. 

I see Obama at 43.5% in Georgia with 55.5% for Romney
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1733


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2012, 08:52:41 pm »
Ignore

Compare our 2010 results to 2006, when the Democrats only got 38% in the governor's race, and that was supposed to be a good year for Democrats. The fact is, GA democrats performed better in 2010 during a Republican wave than they did in 2006 during a Democratic wave.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
NE Caretaker Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5886
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2012, 01:57:48 am »
Ignore

No way Obama only gets 40%. 44-45% is absolutely his floor in the state, and I should know, I live here for gods' sake. I think pollsters are underestimating the minority vote in Georgia. The black vote was 30% in 2008, and it only dropped 2 points, to 28%, in the 2010 midterms.

And despite "only" dropping to 28% the Dems could only muster 39% in the Senate race and 43% in the Gov race. 

I see Obama at 43.5% in Georgia with 55.5% for Romney

First of all, race plays a factor here. Black Senate candidates have a DPI at least 5 points lower than white Senate candidates on average.

2002: Cleland (White) - 45.9%
2004: Majette (Black) - 40.0%
2008: Martin (White) - 46.8%
2010: Thurmond (Black) - 39.0%

This can also be seen in how Roy Barnes - in 2010 - received a higher percentage of the white vote than Obama did in 2008. When you consider the fact that the 2010 GA electorate was far more conservative throughout + the national trends, it shows how much race plays a role here. Thurmond received around 19% of the white vote in 2010, which honestly could have been worse; Obama only got 23%. So did Kerry. The black turnout combined with suburban flips and changing demographics cancelled out the race factor for Obama, but there hasn't been a scenario in which high black turnout occurred alongside a Senate race with a black candidate.

Secondly, the drop from 30% to 28% is negligible when compared to many other states with measurable black population. Georgia has a strong black electorate that generally maintains its representation both in mid-terms and presidential elections. However, with blacks voting nearly exclusively Democratic, the 2 point drop from 30% to 28% equates to a 2 point drop in statewide DPI. Two-thirds of Georgia Democrats are black, so a ~7% in black representation at the polls has a pretty drastic effect on DPI.

Thirdly, white liberal youths were not motivated to vote in 2010. We'll see what happens this year, but mid-terms lead to some pretty sharp drop-offs in DPI here. As cope said, 2006 was probably the worst year for Democrats in Georgia, despite being an excellent year nationally. It was also the point at which the demographics and the collapse of Democratic Party in Georgia post-2000 were both at their worse. From there on, the demographics have been growing in our favor and the Democratic Party is (albeit slowly) recovering. 
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5902


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2012, 01:45:40 pm »
Ignore

Georgia is a state where the recent Obama 'evolution' can and will cost him the support of many whites.
Logged
Nhoj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6005
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2012, 02:00:25 pm »
Ignore

Georgia is a state where the recent Obama 'evolution' can and will cost him the support of many whites.
Obama got 23% of whites in GA, most of them are probably not conservative southern Dems.
Logged

آزادی برای ایران


old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1733


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2012, 10:36:50 pm »
Ignore

If it were 1996 and Clinton came out in support for gay marriage, it would cost him white support. I can guarantee you that those 23% of white voters who supported Obama have no problem with gay marriage and will still vote for him this year.

It'll be hard to move anyone from that 76% over to Obama's side, but the 23% are firmly in support of the president, I can guarantee you that.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines