Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 30, 2014, 09:30:43 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | |-+  If Intrade had existed, who would it have named the frontrunners for.....
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: If Intrade had existed, who would it have named the frontrunners for.....  (Read 1112 times)
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19800
United States


View Profile
« on: May 12, 2012, 06:11:58 am »
Ignore

Suppose Intrade (or some kind of pre-internet equivalent) had existed for the past 50 years.  Who would it have had as the favorite for each parties' presidential nomination on Jan. 1 of each election year?

(I'm skipping cases where an incumbent president was running for reelection, as he would have obviously been the favorite.)

2012
GOP: Romney

2008
Dems: Clinton
GOP: Giuliani (though it was virtually a 3-way tie w/ McCain and Romney, and McCain took the lead just two days later)

2004
Dems: Dean

2000
Dems: Gore
GOP: Bush

1996
GOP: Dole

1992
Dems: Clinton

1988
Dems: Dukakis?  Was he already the frontrunner by then?
GOP: Bush

1984
Dems: Mondale

1980
GOP: Reagan

1976
Dems: I don't know.....Bayh or Udall maybe?

1972
Dems: Muskie?

1968
GOP: Nixon?

1964
GOP: Huh

As you can see, I don't know as much about the pre-1980 races.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2012, 11:04:57 am »
Ignore

1976 GOP was heavily contested dude.
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14726
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2012, 12:30:22 pm »
Ignore

1968: Romney
1972: Muskie
1976: ?, Ford
1980: Carter, Reagan
1988: ?
1992: ABC
1996: Dole
2000: Gore/Bush
2004: Dean
2008: Clinton/McCain
2012: Romney
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
GPORTER
gporter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7315
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2012, 11:12:46 pm »
Ignore

1968: Romney
1972: Muskie
1976: ?, Ford
1980: Carter, Reagan
1988: ?
1992: ABC
1996: Dole
2000: Gore/Bush
2004: Dean
2008: Clinton/McCain
2012: Romney
1988: Dukakis, Kemp
Logged

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new
the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19800
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2012, 06:18:15 am »
Ignore

1976 GOP was heavily contested dude.

Yes, but my impression was that Ford was the favorite before the primaries started.

1968: Romney
1972: Muskie
1976: ?, Ford
1980: Carter, Reagan
1988: ?
1992: ABC
1996: Dole
2000: Gore/Bush
2004: Dean
2008: Clinton/McCain
2012: Romney
1988: Dukakis, Kemp

Uh....no.

I'm really curious about the 1976 Dem. race.  Anyone know how that one would have been handicapped before the primaries started?
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
GPORTER
gporter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7315
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2012, 09:29:51 am »
Ignore

1976 GOP was heavily contested dude.

Yes, but my impression was that Ford was the favorite before the primaries started.

1968: Romney
1972: Muskie
1976: ?, Ford
1980: Carter, Reagan
1988: ?
1992: ABC
1996: Dole
2000: Gore/Bush
2004: Dean
2008: Clinton/McCain
2012: Romney
1988: Dukakis, Kemp

Uh....no.

I'm really curious about the 1976 Dem. race.  Anyone know how that one would have been handicapped before the primaries started?


For 1988 it wasn't going to be Bush. Would it be Dole?
Logged

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new
the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19800
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2012, 09:35:17 am »
Ignore

For 1988 it wasn't going to be Bush.

What do you mean?  Bush was the frontrunner in 1988.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
wormyguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8608
Liechtenstein


Political Matrix
E: 4.52, S: -1.57

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2012, 10:44:38 am »
Ignore

1968 D would've been hilarious - watching Johnson-D go from 90% to 0 in seconds. Tongue
Logged
"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
DarthNader
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 392


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2012, 01:25:38 pm »
Ignore

Uh....no.

I'm really curious about the 1976 Dem. race.  Anyone know how that one would have been handicapped before the primaries started?


In the Jules Witcover book Marathon, Scoop Jackson is described as the early frontrunner. He'd lined up a lot of labor endorsements and was in the news for taking on oil executives in hearings after the '74 gas crisis. After that would probably be Bayh and the non-candidates the press speculated about, Humphrey and Kennedy. I can actually imagine Intrade being pretty close among these four.

'64 - Goldwater
'88 - Probably Dukakis, but I believe Simon had some buzz around then, and the field was divided enough to keep Cuomo's name in the mix

You skipped '80 for the Democrats in your original post. While Carter would have been the favorite by Jan. 1 (early in the hostage crisis), Kennedy would have had a huge Intrade lead for much of '79.
Logged
"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
DarthNader
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 392


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2012, 01:32:11 pm »
Ignore

1968 D would've been hilarious - watching Johnson-D go from 90% to 0 in seconds. Tongue

RFK was already in the race by the time Johnson dropped out. Given how much Intrade responds to media-hyped candidates like Giuliani and Huntsman, it probably would've been something like LBJ 60/RFK 35/McCarthy 2/Other 3.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14726
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2012, 02:42:46 pm »
Ignore

1968 D would've been interesting. For most of 1967 it would have LBJ in the 70s with RFK in the teens. When RFK declares he goes into the low 30s, briefly tops 50 before HHH enters. Both men in the mid-40s with McCarthy in high single digits. CA primary night would be wildly fluctuating- Kennedy soars to the mid-50s for a few minutes after being projected the winner then crashes back down to the low teens, then finally 0 as the day wears on.

GOP: Nixon remains in the 80s throughout, maybe dipping a bit at roll call time given how he barely cleared 50%.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
GPORTER
gporter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7315
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2012, 09:08:53 pm »
Ignore

For 1988 it wasn't going to be Bush.

What do you mean?  Bush was the frontrunner in 1988.


Behind by eighteen to Dukakis in the summer. Lets be honest, it took mistakes on Dukakis's part, Ronald Reagan, and a negative campaign to save Bush. Bush came in third in Iowa.
Logged

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new
the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19800
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2012, 10:20:09 pm »
Ignore

For 1988 it wasn't going to be Bush.

What do you mean?  Bush was the frontrunner in 1988.


Behind by eighteen to Dukakis in the summer. Lets be honest, it took mistakes on Dukakis's part, Ronald Reagan, and a negative campaign to save Bush.

We're talking about the race for the GOP nomination, not the general election.

Quote
Bush came in third in Iowa.


Yes, but he wasn't expected to do as poorly as third.  That came as a surprise.  Bush was certainly the national frontrunner.  Here's an Iowa poll from late December that has Dole just narrowly ahead of Bush:

http://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/28/us/dole-and-bush-leading-in-an-iowa-gop-poll.html?scp=2&sq=bush+dole+poll&st=nyt

Dole 37%
Bush 33%
Kemp 9%
Robertson 8%
du Pont 5%

Meanwhile, Bush had a healthy lead in New Hampshire:

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/13/us/gallup-poll-sees-rise-in-support-for-kemp-in-new-hampshire.html?scp=7&sq=bush+dole+poll&st=nyt

Iowa was seen as the one chance to stop derail Bush enough to stop him from running the table, a dynamic discussed here:

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/23/us/for-republicans-in-new-hampshire-all-eyes-are-on-iowa.html?scp=1&sq=bush+dole+frontrunner&st=nyt
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19800
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2012, 11:05:42 pm »
Ignore

In the Jules Witcover book Marathon, Scoop Jackson is described as the early frontrunner. He'd lined up a lot of labor endorsements and was in the news for taking on oil executives in hearings after the '74 gas crisis.

Jackson winning in 1976 would have had interesting repercussions on the subsequent evolution of the two parties, particularly on foreign policy.  Has anyone here done a President Scoop Jackson timeline?
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17660
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -8.45, S: -4.26

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2012, 05:47:36 am »
Ignore

1968 D would've been hilarious - watching Johnson-D go from 90% to 0 in seconds. Tongue

LBJ would probably be at 0.2 or something--I'm sure a few people expected him to try at the convention.
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines