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Author Topic: If Intrade had existed, who would it have named the frontrunners for.....  (Read 959 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: May 12, 2012, 06:11:58 am »
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Suppose Intrade (or some kind of pre-internet equivalent) had existed for the past 50 years.  Who would it have had as the favorite for each parties' presidential nomination on Jan. 1 of each election year?

(I'm skipping cases where an incumbent president was running for reelection, as he would have obviously been the favorite.)

2012
GOP: Romney

2008
Dems: Clinton
GOP: Giuliani (though it was virtually a 3-way tie w/ McCain and Romney, and McCain took the lead just two days later)

2004
Dems: Dean

2000
Dems: Gore
GOP: Bush

1996
GOP: Dole

1992
Dems: Clinton

1988
Dems: Dukakis?  Was he already the frontrunner by then?
GOP: Bush

1984
Dems: Mondale

1980
GOP: Reagan

1976
Dems: I don't know.....Bayh or Udall maybe?

1972
Dems: Muskie?

1968
GOP: Nixon?

1964
GOP: Huh

As you can see, I don't know as much about the pre-1980 races.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2012, 11:04:57 am »
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1976 GOP was heavily contested dude.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2012, 12:30:22 pm »
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1968: Romney
1972: Muskie
1976: ?, Ford
1980: Carter, Reagan
1988: ?
1992: ABC
1996: Dole
2000: Gore/Bush
2004: Dean
2008: Clinton/McCain
2012: Romney
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2012, 11:12:46 pm »
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1968: Romney
1972: Muskie
1976: ?, Ford
1980: Carter, Reagan
1988: ?
1992: ABC
1996: Dole
2000: Gore/Bush
2004: Dean
2008: Clinton/McCain
2012: Romney
1988: Dukakis, Kemp
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2012, 06:18:15 am »
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1976 GOP was heavily contested dude.

Yes, but my impression was that Ford was the favorite before the primaries started.

1968: Romney
1972: Muskie
1976: ?, Ford
1980: Carter, Reagan
1988: ?
1992: ABC
1996: Dole
2000: Gore/Bush
2004: Dean
2008: Clinton/McCain
2012: Romney
1988: Dukakis, Kemp

Uh....no.

I'm really curious about the 1976 Dem. race.  Anyone know how that one would have been handicapped before the primaries started?
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2012, 09:29:51 am »
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1976 GOP was heavily contested dude.

Yes, but my impression was that Ford was the favorite before the primaries started.

1968: Romney
1972: Muskie
1976: ?, Ford
1980: Carter, Reagan
1988: ?
1992: ABC
1996: Dole
2000: Gore/Bush
2004: Dean
2008: Clinton/McCain
2012: Romney
1988: Dukakis, Kemp

Uh....no.

I'm really curious about the 1976 Dem. race.  Anyone know how that one would have been handicapped before the primaries started?


For 1988 it wasn't going to be Bush. Would it be Dole?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2012, 09:35:17 am »
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For 1988 it wasn't going to be Bush.

What do you mean?  Bush was the frontrunner in 1988.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2012, 10:44:38 am »
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1968 D would've been hilarious - watching Johnson-D go from 90% to 0 in seconds. Tongue
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2012, 01:25:38 pm »
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Uh....no.

I'm really curious about the 1976 Dem. race.  Anyone know how that one would have been handicapped before the primaries started?


In the Jules Witcover book Marathon, Scoop Jackson is described as the early frontrunner. He'd lined up a lot of labor endorsements and was in the news for taking on oil executives in hearings after the '74 gas crisis. After that would probably be Bayh and the non-candidates the press speculated about, Humphrey and Kennedy. I can actually imagine Intrade being pretty close among these four.

'64 - Goldwater
'88 - Probably Dukakis, but I believe Simon had some buzz around then, and the field was divided enough to keep Cuomo's name in the mix

You skipped '80 for the Democrats in your original post. While Carter would have been the favorite by Jan. 1 (early in the hostage crisis), Kennedy would have had a huge Intrade lead for much of '79.
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2012, 01:32:11 pm »
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1968 D would've been hilarious - watching Johnson-D go from 90% to 0 in seconds. Tongue

RFK was already in the race by the time Johnson dropped out. Given how much Intrade responds to media-hyped candidates like Giuliani and Huntsman, it probably would've been something like LBJ 60/RFK 35/McCarthy 2/Other 3.
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2012, 02:42:46 pm »
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1968 D would've been interesting. For most of 1967 it would have LBJ in the 70s with RFK in the teens. When RFK declares he goes into the low 30s, briefly tops 50 before HHH enters. Both men in the mid-40s with McCarthy in high single digits. CA primary night would be wildly fluctuating- Kennedy soars to the mid-50s for a few minutes after being projected the winner then crashes back down to the low teens, then finally 0 as the day wears on.

GOP: Nixon remains in the 80s throughout, maybe dipping a bit at roll call time given how he barely cleared 50%.
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2012, 09:08:53 pm »
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For 1988 it wasn't going to be Bush.

What do you mean?  Bush was the frontrunner in 1988.


Behind by eighteen to Dukakis in the summer. Lets be honest, it took mistakes on Dukakis's part, Ronald Reagan, and a negative campaign to save Bush. Bush came in third in Iowa.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2012, 10:20:09 pm »
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For 1988 it wasn't going to be Bush.

What do you mean?  Bush was the frontrunner in 1988.


Behind by eighteen to Dukakis in the summer. Lets be honest, it took mistakes on Dukakis's part, Ronald Reagan, and a negative campaign to save Bush.

We're talking about the race for the GOP nomination, not the general election.

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Bush came in third in Iowa.


Yes, but he wasn't expected to do as poorly as third.  That came as a surprise.  Bush was certainly the national frontrunner.  Here's an Iowa poll from late December that has Dole just narrowly ahead of Bush:

http://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/28/us/dole-and-bush-leading-in-an-iowa-gop-poll.html?scp=2&sq=bush+dole+poll&st=nyt

Dole 37%
Bush 33%
Kemp 9%
Robertson 8%
du Pont 5%

Meanwhile, Bush had a healthy lead in New Hampshire:

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/13/us/gallup-poll-sees-rise-in-support-for-kemp-in-new-hampshire.html?scp=7&sq=bush+dole+poll&st=nyt

Iowa was seen as the one chance to stop derail Bush enough to stop him from running the table, a dynamic discussed here:

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/23/us/for-republicans-in-new-hampshire-all-eyes-are-on-iowa.html?scp=1&sq=bush+dole+frontrunner&st=nyt
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2012, 11:05:42 pm »
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In the Jules Witcover book Marathon, Scoop Jackson is described as the early frontrunner. He'd lined up a lot of labor endorsements and was in the news for taking on oil executives in hearings after the '74 gas crisis.

Jackson winning in 1976 would have had interesting repercussions on the subsequent evolution of the two parties, particularly on foreign policy.  Has anyone here done a President Scoop Jackson timeline?
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2012, 05:47:36 am »
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1968 D would've been hilarious - watching Johnson-D go from 90% to 0 in seconds. Tongue

LBJ would probably be at 0.2 or something--I'm sure a few people expected him to try at the convention.
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