Suppose Intrade (or some kind of pre-internet equivalent) had existed for the past 50 years. Who would it have had as the favorite for each parties' presidential nomination on Jan. 1 of each election year?
(I'm skipping cases where an incumbent president was running for reelection, as he would have obviously been the favorite.)
2012
GOP: Romney
2008
Dems: Clinton
GOP: Giuliani (though it was virtually a 3-way tie w/ McCain and Romney, and McCain took the lead just two days later)
2004
Dems: Dean
2000
Dems: Gore
GOP: Bush
1996
GOP: Dole
1992
Dems: Clinton
1988
Dems: Dukakis? Was he already the frontrunner by then?
GOP: Bush
1984
Dems: Mondale
1980
GOP: Reagan
1976
Dems: I don't know.....Bayh or Udall maybe?
1972
Dems: Muskie?
1968
GOP: Nixon?
1964
GOP:
As you can see, I don't know as much about the pre-1980 races.