What states will be unanimous in counties?

[So the Heroes Fall]

In 2008 McCain won every county in Oklahoma. Obama won every county in every New England state except Maine, and Hawaii.

Romney probably wins every county in Oklahoma again, the only other possible state I can see is Utah, but Grand and Summit counties aren't very Mormon-heavy so even that isn't guaranteed. Oklahoma is the only one I'd say sure for Romney, and 50/50 for Utah.

For Obama, Romney will obviously win counties in New Hampshire, and many think he'll take some in Massachusetts (though I am skeptical as no Republican has in the last five elections.) In Vermont Essex is obviously not guaranteed and I'd say Romney has a better chance at Litchfield in Connecticut than any Massachusetts County. However there is no way I can see Romney winning any counties in Rhode Island, and obviously not Hawaii. I'd give Obama RI and Hawaii guaranteed, more likely than not in Massachusetts, around 50/50 in Connecticut, an outside shot at Vermont, and New Hampshire probably out of reach this time.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Obama definite:

Hawaii
Rhode Island

Obama likely:

Massachusetts
Vermont

Romney definite:

Oklahoma

Romney likely:

Utah

[Jayhawker]

Romney: Utah, Oklahoma, and possibly West Virginia
Obama: Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii

[Senator Snowstalker]

Romney: possibly West Virginia

No. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA. Obama may be a terrible candidate for the state, but Romney is not a Scots-Irish veteran.

[Jayhawker]

Romney: possibly West Virginia

Yeah, no. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA.

Obama is deeply unpopular in West Virginia - I mean, come on, he beat a federal prisoner by less than 20 points. That's embarrassing for an incumbent President. My guess is, if that many are willing to vote for a no-name against Obama, a good chunk of them will vote for Romney over Obama. His policies aren't popular in West Virginia; same with his race, I'd say.

Last poll, which I think had a Democratic-lean considering the numbers it gave to Manchin and Earl, had Romney up by 17, 54-37. Undecideds typically break against the incumbent, but for arguments sake, let's say it's a pretty even split. That gives Romney around 58% of the vote, compared to Obama's 41%. That swing would give Romney every county in the state - the only county that will be close under this scenario is McDowell. Hence the word "possibly" I added. 

[So the Heroes Fall]

Romney: possibly West Virginia

Yeah, no. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA.

Obama is deeply unpopular in West Virginia - I mean, come on, he beat a federal prisoner by less than 20 points. That's embarrassing for an incumbent President. My guess is, if that many are willing to vote for a no-name against Obama, a good chunk of them will vote for Romney over Obama. His policies aren't popular in West Virginia; same with his race, I'd say.

And he still got more votes than Romney.

He might not be popular, but he wasn't any more popular in 2008 when he won several counties.

[Jayhawker]

Romney: possibly West Virginia

Yeah, no. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA.

Obama is deeply unpopular in West Virginia - I mean, come on, he beat a federal prisoner by less than 20 points. That's embarrassing for an incumbent President. My guess is, if that many are willing to vote for a no-name against Obama, a good chunk of them will vote for Romney over Obama. His policies aren't popular in West Virginia; same with his race, I'd say.

And he still got more votes than Romney.

He might not be popular, but he wasn't any more popular in 2008 when he won several counties.

Only due to the high Democratic registration advantage. A good percentage of both Judd (?) and Obama supporters will flip over to Romney this fall.

I would say he's less popular. At one point in 2008, some thought he might actually have a chance in West Virginia. I remember some polling firm came out with a poll in mid-October having him up. I'd expect Obama anyways to perform a little worse, just because of national environment, this time being much less favorable to him.

[BushKenya]

I will put Oklahoma into the possible Romney column in terms of sweeps.  Obama could get 38-40% here this time around.  We don't like Obama, but we are not that fond of Romney thanks to the whole Mormon and Massachusetts connections.  I'm thinking though, with Obama's gay marriage stance, that might push Obama closer to 37-38% instead of 39-40% where I previously thought.  I think a few east-central counties south of Tulsa near I-40 could go blue this time, but that's a big maybe.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Possible Obama (in order of likelihood):

D.C.
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Vermont
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Maine
Delaware
Minnesota

Possible Romney (in order of likelihood):

Alaska (if considered all one county)
Oklahoma
Utah
West Virginia
New Hampshire
Nebraska
Nevada
Maine
Kentucky
Tennessee

[cavalcade]

Obama definite: Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii

Obama probable: Massachusetts

Obama possible: New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut

Romney definite: Oklahoma

Romney probable: Nebraska

Romney possible: West Virginia, Utah, Nevada

[So the Heroes Fall]

Romney probable: Nebraska

You think Romney will win Thurston County?

[Senator Snowstalker]

Romney: possibly West Virginia

Yeah, no. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA.

Obama is deeply unpopular in West Virginia - I mean, come on, he beat a federal prisoner by less than 20 points. That's embarrassing for an incumbent President. My guess is, if that many are willing to vote for a no-name against Obama, a good chunk of them will vote for Romney over Obama. His policies aren't popular in West Virginia; same with his race, I'd say.

And he still got more votes than Romney.

He might not be popular, but he wasn't any more popular in 2008 when he won several counties.

Only due to the high Democratic registration advantage. A good percentage of both Judd (?) and Obama supporters will flip over to Romney this fall.

I would say he's less popular. At one point in 2008, some thought he might actually have a chance in West Virginia. I remember some polling firm came out with a poll in mid-October having him up. I'd expect Obama anyways to perform a little worse, just because of national environment, this time being much less favorable to him.

The climate by Election Day will be worse for Obama than 2008. This has not happened to a re-elected president since Woodrow Wilson. Given that Carter was ahead of Reagan mere days before the 1980 election, and that McCain led Obama as late as September, saying the national climate will be worse for Obama seems a bit hasty. If Obama does better nationally, he'll probably do better in WV, and vice versa.

[memphis]

Tennessee

Shelby County is majority black. Obama will break 60% easily here.

[timothyinMD]

For Romney I will say Oklahoma, Utah, Nebraska and West Virginia.  Possibly Wyoming.

Again, you people who thing Obama will do better than 40% in West Virginia belong in the loony bin.  Obama only got more votes than Romney in the primary because 53% are registered Democrat and only 28% Republican.  DUH

Obama actually has a record now, and WV hates it.  Regardless of if Obama is re-elected or not he will do worse in West Virginia.   He stands at about a 33% approval rating in the state and that's the percent of the vote I expect him to take

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Tennessee

Shelby County is majority black. Obama will break 60% easily here.

I'm just saying it's within the theoretical realm of possibility, not that it's likely (it would have to be like Nixon '72).  Bush "only" lost there by 16 points.

[Senator Ben]

No Southern state will be a shut out, that's for sure.  I could see Obama repeating 2008, so all of New England sans Maine and New Hampshire, plus Hawaii and Delaware.  For Romney, I'll say Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming.

[memphis]

Tennessee

Shelby County is majority black. Obama will break 60% easily here.

I'm just saying it's within the theoretical realm of possibility, not that it's likely (it would have to be like Nixon '72).  Bush "only" lost there by 16 points.

Romney winning DC is also within the theoretical realm of possibility. And statistically both events are about as likely to happen.

[Progressive Realist]

All of New England except New Hampshire and Maine.

[memphis]

No Southern state will be a shut out, that's for sure.  I could see Obama repeating 2008, so all of New England sans Maine and New Hampshire, plus Hawaii and Delaware.  For Romney, I'll say Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming.

West Virginia, if you want it count it as Southern, is a real possibility. Obama was under 55% in every county last go round and under 50% in all but a few.  And unlike many Deep South counties that Obama narrowly won, there isn't a rock solid minority vote in any of those few counties.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Who's the genius who actually thought Romney could win Elliott County, KY?

[Lloyd Bentsen's Ghost]

West Virginia, if you want it count it as Southern, is a real possibility. Obama was under 55% in every county last go round and under 50% in all but a few.  And unlike many Deep South counties that Obama narrowly won, there isn't a rock solid minority vote in any of those few counties.

Yes. West Virginia is basically regular Virginia minus the African-Americans, the Beltway crowd, and upscale well-educated whites.

[So the Heroes Fall]

No Southern state will be a shut out, that's for sure.  I could see Obama repeating 2008, so all of New England sans Maine and New Hampshire, plus Hawaii and Delaware.  For Romney, I'll say Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming.

So there's going to be a greater than 10 point swing in Blaine and Teton counties?

[memphis]

No Southern state will be a shut out, that's for sure.  I could see Obama repeating 2008, so all of New England sans Maine and New Hampshire, plus Hawaii and Delaware.  For Romney, I'll say Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming.

So there's going to be a greater than 10 point swing in Blaine and Teton counties?

There's a common fallacy in this thread that dominance in a state overall implies a good chance of carrying every county. It's just not true. Counties within most states vary substantially. It's more about the counties being similar that the state being strongly biased overall. Idaho, one of the most GOP states in the country hasn't had every county go for the GOP candidate since 1984.

[BaldEagle1991]

Oklahoma and Utah for Romney

Hawaii, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Vermont for Obama

[pbrower2a]

Romney: possibly West Virginia

Yeah, no. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA.

Obama is deeply unpopular in West Virginia - I mean, come on, he beat a federal prisoner by less than 20 points. That's embarrassing for an incumbent President. My guess is, if that many are willing to vote for a no-name against Obama, a good chunk of them will vote for Romney over Obama. His policies aren't popular in West Virginia; same with his race, I'd say.

Last poll, which I think had a Democratic-lean considering the numbers it gave to Manchin and Earl, had Romney up by 17, 54-37. Undecideds typically break against the incumbent, but for arguments sake, let's say it's a pretty even split. That gives Romney around 58% of the vote, compared to Obama's 41%. That swing would give Romney every county in the state - the only county that will be close under this scenario is McDowell. Hence the word "possibly" I added. 

With that pattern, incumbents would largely lose most elections.

If I have seen any pattern, it is that the undecided tend to swing inadequately toward the one behind at the time. Those near the middle tend to split roughly 50-50 most of the time. A 60-30 split tends to go 62-37 or so (and not to 67-32 or so), and a  46-44 split tends to go about 51-49. The usual explanation is that if one has a 60-30 split the undecided are on the ideological side of the candidate in the lead and are likely to 'come home' to old patterns of voting. Near the middle  the ideological split among the undecided is usually about even. So it was for Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, and Mondale in 1984 when the challenger was far behind.

This does not explain collapses (Dukakis 1988) or near-collapses (Carter 1976, Bush 2004) that have better explanations.  If the incumbent is at all competent as an administrator or legislator and as a politician, he usually shows why he was elected in the first place.  Of course it the incumbent has an inept campaign (Ford 1976), disappoints the public (Hoover 1932, Carter 1976) or can't effectively explain why he should be re-elected (Bush 1992) he then shows that electing him was a mistake.

The Lichtmann test has been far more reliable in the past than almost any other seat-of-the-pants prediction for the Presidency. The only ones with more reliability are the ones more quantitative (such as the one by Nate Silver that estimates that those incumbent Governors and Senators with a 44% approval rating at the beginning of the campaign season have a 50% chance of winning re-election with a precipitous drop-off of a chance of winning for those with less than a 44% approval rating and a sharp gain of a chance for an incumbent with more than a 44% chance of winning.

An explanation for Silver: elected incumbents have usually shown that they are competent campaigners with good organizations behind them, which is good on the average for 6% of the total vote.  Challengers can carp all that they want while incumbent politicians are obliged to make polarizing decisions, but once election time comes, those politicians who are still near or above 50% usually win if they can have a spirited campaign and an effective GOTV program. (The blatant exception might be for appointed pols who never proved that they were competent campaigners, which demonstrates itself in the poor record for appointed pols winning re-election).