Nebraska: Deb Fischer surging past Bruning in US Senate primary

[Tender Branson]

http://www.debfischer2012.com

39% Fischer
34% Bruning

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/14/nebraska-2

[Svensson]

To be quite honest, I'm not too concerned with this. Kerrey is so far past his expiration date, I would be surprised if any of the three major candidates went down to him in the end.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully that's a rogue poll.

[smoltchanov]

Show me normal Republican candidate there.. Even sensible reasonable conservative... The problem is i don't see one.....

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Bruning's apostasy in his early years must be catching up to him.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Bruning's apostasy in his early years must be catching up to him.

What, he used to not be a far right Tea Party-bot?

[For Oklahoma]

Don Stenberg

[EmersonAdams]

I doubt that the democrats will hold Ben Nelson's senate seat, but a Fischer candidacy may give Kerry a fighting chance. He polls roughtly 10 points behind her, much better than the 17 point deficit he'd have to overcome to beat Brunning. Regardless of the outcome of this race, however, this says a lot about how the senate will look come 2013. Republicans continue to nominate hard core conservatives who treat "compromise" as a dirty word, and it's hurting their chance to take control of the senate. It was almost a given that republicans would take the senate, but with a few key retirements and primary defeats, it looks like the senate could go either way.

[Jayhawker]

Called this. I'm supporting Bruning here, but I'd be fine if Fischer won. It would be nice to see more conservative women in Congress.

[JulioMadrid]

I knew Deb Fischer would surge sooner or later.

[hopper]

No while Bruning and Stenberg were going after each other Fischer was sitting in the cat bird's seat. Thats the only reason why Fischer is leading.

It would be nice to have a conservative woman in the Senate yeah but one who will compromise when appropiate!

A Kerrey-Fischer race does sorta remind me of a Bennet-Buck race in Colorado in 2010 but Kerrey doesn't have alot of Hispanic Votes to pull this one out in my mind. Winnong Hispanics 90-10% was very much key in Bennet's victory in 2010.

[Hashemite]

Is Fischer the generic obligatory crackpot Teabagger fruit cake?

[Svensson]

Is Fischer the generic obligatory crackpot Teabagger fruit cake?

I believe Stenberg is supposed to be the mandatory Tea Party spoiler. Can't say I know much about Fischer.

[Keystone Phil]

Herman Cain endorses Deb. Maybe the momentum is real but having a 5% lead all of the sudden after hearing how comfortably Bruning has been ahead seems strange.

[RogueBeaver]

Not so much Cain as Palin.

[Jayhawker]

Not that it necessarily means anything, by Bruning has over 23,000 likes on FB compared to 725 for Deb Fischer.

I think this is one of those races that just isn't a big deal - all three main candidates are very similar. They all tout themselves as the conservative, and all of them actually are. None of them seem to have major hindrances or scandals, and whoever wins will likely win in November by a comfortable margin.

That being said, I don't think it would really bother me if any of the three of them won.

[rbt48]

I'm voting for Bruning tomorrow.  It is really funny how Stenberg's totally negative campaign totally backfired on him.  But, Bruning also responded negatively and that gives Fischer a decent chance.  She is not a right-wing nutcase but Bruning has the best chance to beat Kerrey.  He has a definite age advantage and I think that makes him the most electable, along with his relative moderation compared to Stenberg and Fischer.

I predict it will be a close race between Bruning and Fischer.  He'll take a big lead in Douglas and Sarpy counties, probably Lancaster too.  But she'll do very well in the western 2/3rds of the state.  Her state Senate district is in north central Nebraska.  Of course, the western part of the state's returns are the last to report, so an early lead for Bruning could evaporate later in the vote count.

[Jayhawker]

Thank you for your input - Who do you think has a better ground game?

[rbt48]

Fischer probably does from the standpoint of enthusiastic level of support.  But she doesn't have the money that Bruning does to get out the vote.

[Tender Branson]

PPP shows the same:

Q2 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jon Bruning, Sharyn Elander, Deb Fischer, Pat Flynn, Don Stenberg, and Spencer Zimmerman. If the primary was today, who would you vote for?

Deb Fischer .................................................... 37%
Jon Bruning..................................................... 33%
Don Stenberg.................................................. 17%
Pat Flynn......................................................... 2%
Sharyn Elander ............................................... 1%
Spencer Zimmerman ...................................... 1%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

PPP surveyed 272 likely Republican primary voters on May 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_515.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

Plus there's absentee balloting- apparently a large chunk of Bruning's voters voted absentee. So he'll win on those.

[Tender Branson]

PPP shows the same:

Q2 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jon Bruning, Sharyn Elander, Deb Fischer, Pat Flynn, Don Stenberg, and Spencer Zimmerman. If the primary was today, who would you vote for?

Deb Fischer .................................................... 37%
Jon Bruning..................................................... 33%
Don Stenberg.................................................. 17%
Pat Flynn......................................................... 2%
Sharyn Elander ............................................... 1%
Spencer Zimmerman ...................................... 1%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

PPP surveyed 272 likely Republican primary voters on May 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_515.pdf

Real results:

41% Fischer
36% Bruning
19% Stenberg
  3% Flynn
  1% Elander
  1% Zimmerman

http://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY

Good job, PPP (and WAA).

[WhyteRain]

So if you're an American politician, whose endorsement would you rather have -- Sarah Palin's or ... anyone else's?

Btw, I'm not sure how my "Political Matrix" gets posted, but it's

Economic:  +6.19
Social:  -2.78

"That government which governs least governs best." -- Thomas Jefferson

[MilesC56]

So if you're an American politician, whose endorsement would you rather have -- Sarah Palin's or ... anyone else's?

Btw, I'm not sure how my "Political Matrix" gets posted, but it's

Economic:  +6.19
Social:  -2.78

"That government which governs least governs best." -- Thomas Jefferson

Go under "Site Info" at the top right and then click on "My Atlas." There should be boxes to fill in your score on that page, under your address and stuff.

[argentarius]

Any chance this race could become competitive at all?