Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 25, 2014, 04:17:33 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Will Obama defend Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?
Yes.
No.
Show Pie Chart

Author Topic: Nebraska's 2nd congressional district  (Read 822 times)
golden
Rookie
*
Posts: 42
View Profile
« on: May 14, 2012, 04:28:42 pm »
Ignore

Will Obama defend Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?
Logged
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23002
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -7.74, S: -7.48

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2012, 05:25:43 pm »
Ignore

No.
Logged


i like girls but there is NOTHING better then a sexi hott dude
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10232
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2012, 06:09:44 pm »
Ignore

One electoral vote is not going to make a difference. That said, the Obama campaign may buy ad time in Omaha to reach western Iowa.
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28473
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2012, 08:57:15 pm »
Ignore

Not impossible, but not likely either.
Logged

My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 774


View Profile WWW
« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2012, 10:23:26 pm »
Ignore

I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again. 

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district. 

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.
Logged

Joe Republic
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30734
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2012, 03:05:07 am »
Ignore

^ This.

Did Obama try for it last time, or was it just a total fluke?
Logged



Real Americans (and Big Sky Bob) demand to know.


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
Ebowed
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16412
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -8.32, S: -9.30

View Profile WWW
« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2012, 03:27:02 am »
Ignore

Did Obama try for it last time, or was it just a total fluke?

I recall a concerted effort to win the district, subject to much derision, with the Obama campaign suggesting that every potential electoral vote mattered in the 'path to 270.'
Logged

A tidal wave of healthcare has swept across coal country. 
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19750
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2012, 05:29:27 am »

Yes, there was a concerted effort to win NE-2 in 2008, but IIRC it was more of a stealth effort based on a strong ground game.  I don't think they actually ran any TV ads there.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6667
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2012, 06:55:18 am »
Ignore

I think he can win it if he campaigns and spends money there, but he won't.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2012, 07:36:53 am »
Ignore

I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again. 

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district. 

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.

You keep saying this, but it's still not true.
Logged
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 774


View Profile WWW
« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2012, 10:54:58 am »
Ignore

I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again.  

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district.  

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.

You keep saying this, but it's still not true.
Gosh, Johnny, I thought you liked me in spite of my partisan allegance.  

Please clarify, what am I saying that is not true?  (I cannot get your link to work.)
« Last Edit: May 15, 2012, 10:56:59 am by rbt48 »Logged

Minnesota Mike
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 481


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2012, 12:58:08 pm »
Ignore

I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again. 

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district. 

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.

WRONG.

The part of Sarpy county in NE-02 is more Republican than in 2008 but it is also quite a bit smaller since NE-02 had to shed population in redistricting. The Obama Mcain numbers would be virtually unchanged.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/13/1054554/-Presidential-results-by-congressional-district-2011-12?detail=hide

Logged
Chaddyr23
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 334
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -5.83

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2012, 01:32:47 pm »
Ignore

Nah
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2012, 04:34:02 pm »
Ignore

I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again.  

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district.  

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.

You keep saying this, but it's still not true.
Gosh, Johnny, I thought you liked me in spite of my partisan allegance.  

Please clarify, what am I saying that is not true?  (I cannot get your link to work.)

The link is the calculations for Nebraska's new Congressional districts, where Obama still won. Here is the relevant data:

CD   County   Obama   McCain   Total   Obama%   McCain%
2   Douglas   116,810   106,291   226,701   51.53%   46.89%
   Sarpy (pt.)   16,206   23,599   40,338   40.17%   58.50%
2 Total      133,016   129,890   267,039   49.81%   48.64%
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines