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Question: Will Obama defend Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?
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Author Topic: Nebraska's 2nd congressional district  (Read 1189 times)
golden
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« on: May 14, 2012, 04:28:42 pm »
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Will Obama defend Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?
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R2D2
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2012, 05:25:43 pm »
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No.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2012, 06:09:44 pm »
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One electoral vote is not going to make a difference. That said, the Obama campaign may buy ad time in Omaha to reach western Iowa.
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Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2012, 08:57:15 pm »
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Not impossible, but not likely either.
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2012, 10:23:26 pm »
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I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again. 

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district. 

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2012, 03:05:07 am »
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^ This.

Did Obama try for it last time, or was it just a total fluke?
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2012, 03:27:02 am »
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Did Obama try for it last time, or was it just a total fluke?

I recall a concerted effort to win the district, subject to much derision, with the Obama campaign suggesting that every potential electoral vote mattered in the 'path to 270.'
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2012, 05:29:27 am »
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Yes, there was a concerted effort to win NE-2 in 2008, but IIRC it was more of a stealth effort based on a strong ground game.  I don't think they actually ran any TV ads there.
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2012, 06:55:18 am »
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I think he can win it if he campaigns and spends money there, but he won't.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2012, 07:36:53 am »
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I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again. 

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district. 

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.

You keep saying this, but it's still not true.
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rbt48
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2012, 10:54:58 am »
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I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again.  

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district.  

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.

You keep saying this, but it's still not true.
Gosh, Johnny, I thought you liked me in spite of my partisan allegance.  

Please clarify, what am I saying that is not true?  (I cannot get your link to work.)
« Last Edit: May 15, 2012, 10:56:59 am by rbt48 »Logged

Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2012, 12:58:08 pm »
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I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again. 

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district. 

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.

WRONG.

The part of Sarpy county in NE-02 is more Republican than in 2008 but it is also quite a bit smaller since NE-02 had to shed population in redistricting. The Obama Mcain numbers would be virtually unchanged.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/13/1054554/-Presidential-results-by-congressional-district-2011-12?detail=hide

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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2012, 01:32:47 pm »
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Nah
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2012, 04:34:02 pm »
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I've posted this reality in several other threads, but I'll tell the straight-up truth again.  

When the legislature redrew the districts last year, they put the most Republican part of Sarpy County in CD-2.  The Bellevue, NE part of the district (still Republican, but less so) was moved to CD-1; the Lincoln-based district.  

With these new boundaries, Obama would have lost CD-2 in 2008.  Hence, his chances to carry CD-2 in 2012 are essentially nil, unless Romney implodes big time.

You keep saying this, but it's still not true.
Gosh, Johnny, I thought you liked me in spite of my partisan allegance.  

Please clarify, what am I saying that is not true?  (I cannot get your link to work.)

The link is the calculations for Nebraska's new Congressional districts, where Obama still won. Here is the relevant data:

CD   County   Obama   McCain   Total   Obama%   McCain%
2   Douglas   116,810   106,291   226,701   51.53%   46.89%
   Sarpy (pt.)   16,206   23,599   40,338   40.17%   58.50%
2 Total      133,016   129,890   267,039   49.81%   48.64%
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