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Author Topic: CBS/NYT: Romney up 3  (Read 1757 times)
krazen1211
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« on: May 14, 2012, 05:55:10 pm »
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https://twitter.com/#!/cbsjancrawford/statuses/202163971359383553

Romney takes 3-point lead over Obama in new CBS/NYT poll, 46 to 43%. A dead heat a month ago.




Month of MittMentum Marches on.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2012, 06:08:39 pm »
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Looking at the National Presidential numbers they've been putting out, they've always seemed to stay pretty consistent. Despite Rasmussen and Gallup frequently showing Romney ahead, I've always deep inside felt Obama was still leading. This is the first poll that's come out that makes me really feel Romney's winning this.
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2012, 07:52:02 pm »
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Did you notice in this poll, that the gender gap has disappeared?  The age gap is also muted, although still there. Does that impeach the poll, or suggest something is going on?
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2012, 08:50:24 pm »
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Romney is a much more formidable candidate than people give him credit for- he's the only guy who had a chance at beating Obama this year. People tend to confuse enthusiasm with electoral power, forgetting that elections are decided on a quantitative basis, not a psychological one.

As for the poll- yeah. Romney is winning by 3 even though Obama's approval rating is at 50, nearly the highest in two years. Obama's stance on gay marriage hurt him - it's unambiguous here. Romney's response sticking to his guns was perfect.
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Scott
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2012, 08:55:48 pm »
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Romney has led Obama within the margin of error before, so I doubt that Obama's gay marriage stance has anything to do with this.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2012, 09:04:11 pm »
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forgetting that elections are decided on a quantitative basis, not a psychological one.

No.  No, that's not true at all.
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« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2012, 09:07:22 pm »
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Anyone with 50% approval does not trail in the top line, it doesn't add up. I'm pretty sure Romney's approval would still be underwater, even in this poll, but it doesn't appear it was provided.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2012, 10:12:00 pm by DrScholl »Logged

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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2012, 09:33:28 pm »
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Nope it's an outlier.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2012, 09:36:11 pm »
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50% approval rating yet trailing by 3 and losing women by 2? Seems legit.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2012, 09:45:21 pm »
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This poll doesn't even use a random sample! They use a subset of their other recent poll that was completely discredited.
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« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2012, 09:49:16 pm »
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(Insert Sam Spade remark about CBS "polling".)
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2012, 09:54:16 pm »
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If a CBS Poll showed Obama seven points ahead, then all the liberals on this forum would be saying, "Makes sense". But if a CBS Poll shows Romney three points ahead, they say, "Outlier".

I've seen three national polls in the last few days since Obama's gay marriage "evolution", and they've shown Romney +7, Romney +8 and Romney +3, respectively. But of course they're all outliers, right?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2012, 09:58:03 pm »
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If a CBS Poll showed Obama seven points ahead, then all the liberals on this forum would be saying, "Makes sense". But if a CBS Poll shows Romney three points ahead, they say, "Outlier".

I've seen three national polls in the last few days since Obama's gay marriage "evolution", and they've shown Romney +7, Romney +8 and Romney +3, respectively. But of course they're all outliers, right?
Yes. However, the two polls that had Obama leading by 7 and 8 are fine. Wink
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Scott
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« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2012, 10:03:43 pm »
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I don't understand what's so bad about rejecting polls you don't think are accurate.  Myself and other liberals have no-noed many polls that give Obama or other Democrats the edge but don't appear credible for one reason or another.  I guess ultra-partisanship really does blind people.

Maybe it's just not worth pointing out a poll's flaws anymore, since the other side is just going to whine about it anyway. Tongue
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« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2012, 10:16:23 pm »
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If a CBS Poll showed Obama seven points ahead, then all the liberals on this forum would be saying, "Makes sense". But if a CBS Poll shows Romney three points ahead, they say, "Outlier".

I've seen three national polls in the last few days since Obama's gay marriage "evolution", and they've shown Romney +7, Romney +8 and Romney +3, respectively. But of course they're all outliers, right?

And polls that show Obama up are rejected by conservatives on the forum as wrong, so that argument can go around and around. What is clear is that conservatives want to accept this particular poll despite obvious flaws with it. It makes no sense how 50% approval translates into a 2% deficit in the top line. Be realistic.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2012, 11:38:55 pm »

Joke poll, because women back Romney by 2 in this poll.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2012, 11:43:22 pm »
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Joke poll, because women back Romney by 2 in this poll.

This. Seriously.
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Nagas
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« Reply #17 on: May 14, 2012, 11:45:58 pm »
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I don't understand what's so bad about rejecting polls you don't think are accurate.  Myself and other liberals have no-noed many polls that give Obama or other Democrats the edge but don't appear credible for one reason or another.  I guess ultra-partisanship really does blind people.

Maybe it's just not worth pointing out a poll's flaws anymore, since the other side is just going to whine about it anyway. Tongue

Selective memory is a funny thing.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2012, 11:52:47 pm »
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I've seen three national polls in the last few days since Obama's gay marriage "evolution", and they've shown Romney +7, Romney +8 and Romney +3, respectively. But of course they're all outliers, right?

What are the Romney +7 and Romney +8 nationals?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2012, 11:56:45 pm »

I've seen three national polls in the last few days since Obama's gay marriage "evolution", and they've shown Romney +7, Romney +8 and Romney +3, respectively. But of course they're all outliers, right?

What are the Romney +7 and Romney +8 nationals?

(R) asmussen
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2012, 11:57:44 pm »
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What are the Romney +7 and Romney +8 nationals?

The worst I saw was a Rasmutant +7. Never saw a +8.
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« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2012, 12:28:22 am »
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I think it's a reliable poll, the Democrats on this forum will call it junk cause they don't like it.  Typical of these forums, which represent a minority of the voters in the US.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2012, 12:52:43 am »
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Quote
Romney is a much more formidable candidate than people give him credit for

He'll do worse, far worse, than McCain.
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« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2012, 12:54:28 am »
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MSNBC/Scott's Polling Company: Obama up 20

https://twitter.com/#!/randompersonstwitter

Obama takes 20-point lead over Romney in a new poll, 60 to 40%.  A dead heat a month ago.

Anyone who calls this poll junk obviously just doesn't like the result!  Wah!
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2012, 01:25:07 am »
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I hate this subforum and need to avoid it at all costs.
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