Who will win Harris County, TX?

[BaldEagle1991]

Harris County, TX is the county that contains Houston, TX (mostly Democratic) with GOP suburbs in it, who do you think will win it?

[rbt48]

Who won it in 2008?  I would expect Romney to do better than McCain by 2 to 4%.

[BaldEagle1991]

Obama won Harris County by the skin of his teeth:

Obama 50.5%
McCain 48.8%

I'd say he might win it again, but a much smaller margin, like 50.1%.

[Jbrase]

Unless Romney can make hispanics fall in love with him I think Obama will win it again by a small margin

[BaldEagle1991]

Unless Romney can make hispanics fall in love with him I think Obama will win it again by a small margin

True...most Hispanics I know hate Romney here, regardless of political leanings.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Obama

[rbt48]

the reason obama and mccain was close because mccain was from az and thats next door to texas. Romney is from new england..........

Ahh, Houston is about as far from Arizona as it is from Jacksonville, FL.  Check out the mileage on I-10 if you don't believe me.  I can't imagine the fact that McCain was from Arizona was particularly helpful in Houston.

[Stranger in a strange land]

the reason obama and mccain was close because mccain was from az and thats next door to texas. Romney is from new england..........

Uh, no it's not. Houston is closer to Omaha than it is to Phoenix, and I think it's fair to say that McCain being from Arizona didn't help him in Texas, except maybe in the Western part of the state. That aside, Harris County IS trending Democratic, albeit slowly, and Obama should win it by a small margin.

[Deldem]

The Democratic Party has been making inroads in Harris for awhile now- there's been pretty consistent improvement over time, and unlike other parts of Texas there aren't many areas that are trending away, and there's a steadily growing Hispanic population in the voting population. I would say considering it's a worse year than 2008, but with the better demographics, he does around the same, or slightly better, so a 2-4 point win.

It's worth noting that Bill White managed roughly the same margin as Obama in Harris, but in a way worse year. Not all of that is due to him being mayor, and not all of it was because Perry was disliked. Obama will do better than a lot of people expect.

[BaldEagle1991]

But I know Obama's NASA cuts and the rejection of the keystone pipeline might be a big problem for him in this county. I think it might make a small slight impact.

[memphis]

Obama and by a bigger margin that in 2008. Harris is only about a third Anglo today. Republicans are moving out.

[BaldEagle1991]

the reason obama and mccain was close because mccain was from az and thats next door to texas.

Wrong, New Mexico is.

[The Mikado]

the reason obama and mccain was close because mccain was from az and thats next door to texas. Romney is from new england..........

AZ is literally hundreds miles away from TX, and is over a thousand miles from the parts of TX in which people actually live.  Also, Houston has next to nothing in common culturally with Arizona.  Houston's very much a Gulf Coast town.

Anyway, this question really depends on the national result, but there are a lot of white business types in Houston that might have wavered in 2008 who might find Romney more their type.  I'd be willing to bet Romney narrowly carries Harris.

[Lloyd Bentsen's Ghost]

This would be a more compelling question if we didn't already know Romney's winning Texas, with or without Harris County.

I think Romney will narrowly win it, like with under 50%. But the days of it being a safe GOP county are over. It's funny to look at old maps from 50 years ago and see Harris and Dallas Counties as these isolated Republican islands in a sea of Democratic areas.

[GM Griffin]

It's worth noting that Bill White managed roughly the same margin as Obama in Harris, but in a way worse year. Not all of that is due to him being mayor, and not all of it was because Perry was disliked. Obama will do better than a lot of people expect.

Not to mention Annise Parker - a lesbian - was elected with 52.5% of the vote in late 2009 and won without a runoff just a few months ago.

51-48

[Jbrase]

Obama and by a bigger margin that in 2008. Harris is only about a third Anglo today. Republicans are moving out.

Not quite, Republicans are moving in, just not as fast as the hispanic community is growing. For Obama to win by a larger margin in 2012 he would need a combo of new people coming out to vote while keeping those hispanics he won last time, a tall order for this part of the country.   

[Senator Napoleon]

I expect Texas to move toward the GOP in this election, while Harris stays put, maybe a point or so more Democratic than 2008.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

It's worth noting that Bill White managed roughly the same margin as Obama in Harris, but in a way worse year. Not all of that is due to him being mayor, and not all of it was because Perry was disliked. Obama will do better than a lot of people expect.

Not to mention Annise Parker - a lesbian - was elected with 52.5% of the vote in late 2009 and won without a runoff just a few months ago.

51-48

only Houstonians were able to vote for mayor of Houston, the unincorporated portions of Harris County have 1.2 million non-Houstonians.

[Lloyd Bentsen's Ghost]

Obama and by a bigger margin that in 2008. Harris is only about a third Anglo today. Republicans are moving out.

Not quite, Republicans are moving in, just not as fast as the hispanic community is growing. For Obama to win by a larger margin in 2012 he would need a combo of new people coming out to vote while keeping those hispanics he won last time, a tall order for this part of the country.   

Republicans are moving out of Harris County and into Fort Bend County (Sugar Land) and Montgomery County (The Woodlands). The Harris County suburbs are getting older and less Anglo. All you have to do is look at how many outer loop school districts have minority-majority enrollment to see why Republicans will have very few long-term prospects in Harris County unless they make some serious changes.

[Diabolical Minds Think Alike]

Obama.

[freepcrusher]

Obama and by a bigger margin that in 2008. Harris is only about a third Anglo today. Republicans are moving out.

Not quite, Republicans are moving in, just not as fast as the hispanic community is growing. For Obama to win by a larger margin in 2012 he would need a combo of new people coming out to vote while keeping those hispanics he won last time, a tall order for this part of the country.   

Republicans are moving out of Harris County and into Fort Bend County (Sugar Land) and Montgomery County (The Woodlands). The Harris County suburbs are getting older and less Anglo. All you have to do is look at how many outer loop school districts have minority-majority enrollment to see why Republicans will have very few long-term prospects in Harris County unless they make some serious changes.

the republicans are most definitely not moving into Fort Bend. They are into Montgomery but Fort Bend is on its way to looking like Queens in terms of ethnic diversity.

[Jbrase]

Republicans are moving out of Harris County and into Fort Bend County (Sugar Land) and Montgomery County (The Woodlands). The Harris County suburbs are getting older and less Anglo. All you have to do is look at how many outer loop school districts have minority-majority enrollment to see why Republicans will have very few long-term prospects in Harris County unless they make some serious changes.

I'll agree that they are moving into Montgomery but they are also moving into northern Harris. Places like Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita etc. The schools district demographics are just evidence of minority communities growing faster, not anglos moving out.

[Lloyd Bentsen's Ghost]

I'll agree that they are moving into Montgomery but they are also moving into northern Harris. Places like Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita etc. The schools district demographics are just evidence of minority communities growing faster, not anglos moving out.

Either way, you're still going to get a lower percentage of non-Hispanic whites over time. Montgomery County is basically white flight on steroids. The African-American population there is abnormally low for that part of the state, especially when you compare it to the adjacent counties:
Waller - 24.9%
Walker - 22.5%
Harris - 18.9%
Grimes - 16.5%
Liberty - 10.8%
San Jacinto - 10.3%
Montgomery - 4.3%

[BaldEagle1991]

Republicans are moving out of Harris County and into Fort Bend County (Sugar Land) and Montgomery County (The Woodlands). The Harris County suburbs are getting older and less Anglo. All you have to do is look at how many outer loop school districts have minority-majority enrollment to see why Republicans will have very few long-term prospects in Harris County unless they make some serious changes.

I'll agree that they are moving into Montgomery but they are also moving into northern Harris. Places like Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita etc. The schools district demographics are just evidence of minority communities growing faster, not anglos moving out.

I think there's also evidence of blacks moving out as well, look at Pearland and Missouri City.

[The Mikado]

Yeah, I'm expecting Obama to be a bit weaker than Obama 2008 in TX (a bit, mind, not a lot), and it wouldn't surprise me if Romney narrowly carried Harris.  One thing's clear, though: with Harris and Bexar now swing counties and Dallas County increasingly Dem (and Travis being solid Dem, of course), along with the slow-but-steady decline of rural West (and to a lesser extent, East) Texas, the TX GOP is becoming more and more suburban/exurban by the year (a process already clear by the 1990s, but continuing). 

The GOP is getting slowly squeezed out of Texan big cities (where it's always been stronger than most major cities), and the countryside is losing importance by the year.  As much as the TX GOP loves to project the image to the rest of the country of being a bunch of good-ol'-boys and rough cowboys, it's become the party of suburbia.  This is an obvious point, but one worth remembering and repeating.