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| | |-+  German/Austrian GDP growth surprisingly good in Q1
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Author Topic: German/Austrian GDP growth surprisingly good in Q1  (Read 432 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 15, 2012, 03:07:20 am »
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GDP is up 0.5% in Germany in Q1, while analysts only predicted 0.1% growth.

Q1 2012 GDP is up by 1.7% from Q1 2011.

This is also a very good number, because it was estimated that Germany would only grow by 0.5-0.8% for the WHOLE year 2012, so a 1.7% growth in Q1 is already great.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2012/05/PE12_166_811.html

In Austria, which usually lags slightly behind Germany with slowdowns and upswings, GDP growth in Q1 was 0.2% - analysts actually predicted a decline or stagnation.

Q1 2012 GDP is up by 1.9% compared with Q1 2011, which is actually 0.2% more than in Germany. In the EU spring forecast I posted recently, Austria was only projected to grow by 0.8% in 2012, but if Q1 already starts with 1.9% it will be much higher - like in Germany.

http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/downloadController/displayDbDoc.htm?item=P_2012_05_15$.PDF

Here's a better overview:

GERMANY (Q/Q growth):

Q1 2011: +1.3%
Q2 2011: +0.3%
Q3 2011: +0.6%
Q4 2011: - 0.2%
Q1 2012: +0.5%

GERMANY (year on year growth):

Q1 2011: +5.0%
Q2 2011: +3.0%
Q3 2011: +2.6%
Q4 2011: +1.5%
Q1 2012: +1.7%

AUSTRIA (Q/Q growth):

Q1 2011: +0.8%
Q2 2011: +0.5%
Q3 2011:   0.0%
Q4 2011:   0.0%
Q1 2012: +0.2%

AUSTRIA (year on year growth):

Q1 2011: +4.9%
Q2 2011: +4.1%
Q3 2011: +2.4%
Q4 2011: +0.8%
Q1 2012: +1.9%

...

In 2011, GDP grew by 3.0% in Germany and 3.1% in Austria.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2012, 03:22:46 am »
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France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Hungary, Romania all have bad reports:

France was 0.0%, Italy was -0.8%, Spain was -0.3%, Netherlands was -0.2%, Hungary was -0.7% and Romania was -0.1%

Slovakia on the other hand had a 0.8% growth in Q1.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2012, 03:25:59 am »
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The UK Statistics Office already released a -0.2% number for Q1 a while ago.

Official Eurostat numbers for most countries will be out in about half an hour.
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change08
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2012, 06:26:24 pm »
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The depressing hilarity that the UK's in recession, but the Eurozone isn't.
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opebo
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2012, 06:29:44 pm »
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France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Hungary, Romania all have bad reports:

France was 0.0%, Italy was -0.8%, Spain was -0.3%, Netherlands was -0.2%, Hungary was -0.7% and Romania was -0.1%

The Euro is valued at an appropriate level for Germany and Austria, but about 50% too high for the countries you've listed.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2012, 01:32:47 pm »
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Specific numbers for Austria and Germany have been released today for Q1 GDP:

AUT

Q/Q growth: +0.3%
Y/Y growth: +2.0%

Here's the development in the recent quarters:



Link

GER

Q/Q growth: +0.5%
Y/Y growth: +1.7%

Link

...

The Austrian National Bank has also a new forecast about economic indicators for the next few years:



BIP-Wachstum = GDP Growth (change compared with previous year)
Arbeitslose = Unemployment rate in %
Inflation = Inflation (lol) (change compared with previous year)
Privater Konsum = Private Consumption (change compared with previous year)
Budgetdefizit (Maastricht) = Budget deficit in % of GDP
Staatsverschuldung = Government debt in % of GDP
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