2008 swing states
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Poll
Question: Which 2008 swing states will Obama be able to hold?
#1
Colorado
#2
Florida
#3
Indiana
#4
Iowa
#5
Nebraska's 2nd CD
#6
Nevada
#7
New Mexico
#8
North Carolina
#9
Ohio
#10
Virginia
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Author Topic: 2008 swing states  (Read 2823 times)
golden
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« on: May 15, 2012, 05:39:44 AM »

Which 2008 swing states will Obama be able to hold?
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2012, 06:08:19 AM »

CO
IA
NV
NM
OH
VA

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Supersonic
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2012, 06:16:21 AM »

Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, at the moment.
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2012, 07:20:43 AM »

Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia
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20RP12
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2012, 08:05:58 AM »

CO, IA, NM and maybe NV. I still contend that Romney has a shot in NV. Obama has, for all intensive purposes, lost Ohio following his recent "coming out." Rick Santorum nearly won Ohio because of the suburban Christian Conservative voters. Those same voters will certainly go against Obama, causing him to lose OH. VA is a different story, but I still don't see him winning.

Surprised to see PA not on this list, it's more of a swing state this year then it was in 2008, but it's still considered a swing state.
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NHI
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2012, 08:08:16 AM »

CO, NM for sure. I'd put IA and NV as lean Obama for the moment.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2012, 08:31:03 AM »

Polls suggest if vote were today...

Obama strong favorite:
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada

Obama moderate favorite:
Iowa
Virginia

Obama slight favorite:
Ohio

Could go either way:
Florida
North Carolina
Nebraska's 2nd CD

Romney slight favorite:
Arizona
Missouri

Not much in way of polls:
Indiana
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2012, 09:15:51 AM »

My prediction:

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NHI
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2012, 09:47:14 AM »

My current prediction:

Romney: 276
Obama: 262
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Donerail
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2012, 05:16:43 PM »


This, except sure on NV.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2012, 05:22:23 PM »

My current prediction:

Romney: 276
Obama: 262

Romney will not win Iowa or New Hampshire. I'm less sure about NH than IA, but I know he likely won't win either.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2012, 07:20:29 PM »

My current prediction:

Romney: 276
Obama: 262

Romney will not win Iowa or New Hampshire. I'm less sure about NH than IA, but I know he likely won't win either.
Why won't he win IA?
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20RP12
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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2012, 07:34:42 PM »

It's been trending lean Dem for a while.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2012, 07:56:15 PM »

It's been trending lean Dem for a while.
That was confusing, I meant Obama. I think that Obama has traded Ohio for Virginia by endorsing gay marriage though, making it a lot harder for Romney to win VA to get the coveted 270. He'll probably have to look elsewhere, WI or PA. Probably not WI unless Walker wins by more than +5 margin.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2012, 08:16:51 PM »

I love the declarations of the loss of Ohio despite no evidence to suggest it. lol

Ohio will be close, regardless.

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20RP12
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« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2012, 08:20:33 PM »

It's been trending lean Dem for a while.

That was confusing, I meant Obama. I think that Obama has traded Ohio for Virginia by endorsing gay marriage though, making it a lot harder for Romney to win VA to get the coveted 270. He'll probably have to look elsewhere, WI or PA. Probably not WI unless Walker wins by more than +5 margin.

VA voted against gay marriage in 2006 (I believe it was.) Romney will win WI if Walker wins by +5, I agree, and he'll only win PA if unemployment goes above 9.3-9.5% again.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2012, 08:22:58 PM »

It's been trending lean Dem for a while.

That was confusing, I meant Obama. I think that Obama has traded Ohio for Virginia by endorsing gay marriage though, making it a lot harder for Romney to win VA to get the coveted 270. He'll probably have to look elsewhere, WI or PA. Probably not WI unless Walker wins by more than +5 margin.

VA voted against gay marriage in 2006 (I believe it was.) Romney will win WI if Walker wins by +5, I agree, and he'll only win PA if unemployment goes above 9.3-9.5% again.

You see... the Walker/Romney thing are related, but not closely.

The other thing that always s***s me to tears is people taking one vote, and extrapolating a conclusion about another... you need to consider, yes, they might not like gay marriage but HOW much do they care?

It's oft forgotten element...
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20RP12
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« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2012, 08:35:08 PM »

Good point.
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Vosem
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« Reply #18 on: May 15, 2012, 08:38:44 PM »

It's been trending lean Dem for a while.

That was confusing, I meant Obama. I think that Obama has traded Ohio for Virginia by endorsing gay marriage though, making it a lot harder for Romney to win VA to get the coveted 270. He'll probably have to look elsewhere, WI or PA. Probably not WI unless Walker wins by more than +5 margin.

VA voted against gay marriage in 2006 (I believe it was.) Romney will win WI if Walker wins by +5, I agree, and he'll only win PA if unemployment goes above 9.3-9.5% again.

You see... the Walker/Romney thing are related, but not closely.

The other thing that always s***s me to tears is people taking one vote, and extrapolating a conclusion about another... you need to consider, yes, they might not like gay marriage but HOW much do they care?

It's oft forgotten element...

True, but those who remember it frequently overrate it...tuned-in political junkies sometimes forget that an unenthusiastic 'meh-he's-the-least-bad-of-this-lot' vote counts just as much as a 'FUKK YEAH!' vote. On that level, enthusiasm and how much you care don't matter one bit.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2012, 08:44:11 PM »

It's been trending lean Dem for a while.

That was confusing, I meant Obama. I think that Obama has traded Ohio for Virginia by endorsing gay marriage though, making it a lot harder for Romney to win VA to get the coveted 270. He'll probably have to look elsewhere, WI or PA. Probably not WI unless Walker wins by more than +5 margin.

VA voted against gay marriage in 2006 (I believe it was.) Romney will win WI if Walker wins by +5, I agree, and he'll only win PA if unemployment goes above 9.3-9.5% again.

You see... the Walker/Romney thing are related, but not closely.

The other thing that always s***s me to tears is people taking one vote, and extrapolating a conclusion about another... you need to consider, yes, they might not like gay marriage but HOW much do they care?

It's oft forgotten element...

True, but those who remember it frequently overrate it...tuned-in political junkies sometimes forget that an unenthusiastic 'meh-he's-the-least-bad-of-this-lot' vote counts just as much as a 'FUKK YEAH!' vote. On that level, enthusiasm and how much you care don't matter one bit.

I agree, but what I mean is not enthusiasm to VOTE, but how much that one issue will counter other issues to affect how they vote.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2012, 08:49:17 PM »

I think that Obama has traded Ohio for Virginia by endorsing gay marriage though,

...

What?
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