KOS poll for WI races

[Ben Romney]

GOVERNOR – WISCONSIN (PPP/DKos)
Scott Walker (R-inc) 49%
Tom Barrett (D) 45%
Hari Trivedi (I) 2%

LT GOVERNOR – WISCONSIN (PPP/DKos)
Rebecca Kleefisch (R-inc) 46%
Mahlon MItchell (D) 43%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (PPP/DKos) Obama: 44/50
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

US SENATE – WISCONSIN (PPP/DKos)
Eric Hovde (R) 45%
Tammy Baldwin (D) 41%

Mark Neumann (R) 46%
Tammy Baldwin (D) 42%

Tommy Thompson (R) 47%
Tammy Baldwin (D) 42%

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2012/5/11/WI/123/MjpEP

[Vosem]

This is the opposite of the NH poll, I think -- too optimistic for Romney. Obama is probably leading by a couple of points. That said, this is a more realistic result than NH, as the decline in Obama's lead has an actual, reasonable cause (enthusiasm for Gov. Walker's policies), and there's nothing I can think of in NH.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

If Scott Walker wins the recall, I think Romney will win WI.

[DrScholl]

For clarity, these numbers are based on the screen for the recall and it's a pretty Republican sample, a bigger one than will show up in November. The turnout model will be different in November.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Scott Walker wins the recall, I think Romney will win WI.

Wanna bet?

[LiberalJunkie]

If Scott Walker wins the recall, I think Romney will win WI.

Wanna bet?

[Tender Branson]

This poll is about as useful for November as the poll from the KY Governor race last year, in which Beshear led by 2:1 and Obama was tied with Romney in the state.

It's useless because it's a Walker recall sample and the sample for November will look totally different.

[cavalcade]

It does say it's a poll of registered voters, but that's probably a lie.

[argentarius]

If Romney is anywhere near 270 states like Wisconsin will be competitive.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

If Scott Walker wins the recall, I think Romney will win WI.

Wanna bet?

No. My confidence is apparently unfounded, so I won't say anything anymore.

[pbrower2a]

It's hard to predict how this recall election will result. There are few recent precedents. The usual assumption is that non-Presidential elections is of a low turnout when people aren't riled up. Of course, people are riled up this time.

Scott Walker is wildly unpopular, but he does have lavish financial support. The Democrat will surely use the "Divide and Conquer" clip against him just to show what is at stake. 

[tmthforu94]

I think this result looks pretty accurate. I've had a hard time believing the polls that had Obama up big here.

[krazen1211]

Scott Walker is wildly unpopular, but he does have lavish financial support. The Democrat will surely use the "Divide and Conquer" clip against him just to show what is at stake. 

Lol!

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin seems like it's having a sort of reverse-Ohio bounce where Walker is helping the Republican brand in much the same way Kasich is hurting the Republican brand in Ohio, although people seem to slowly be forgetting about it here. Still it might be enough for President Obama to carry Ohio when he otherwise would not have. In Wisconsin, people can't possibly forget about it when they have seemingly endless recalls. If Walker wins, it very well might help Romney significiantly in November; but since Wisconsin isn't normally a true swing state it probably won't be enough to swing the state toward Romney. It could change the outcome of Wisconsin's senate race. Or Walker could lose or perhaps Walker wins, the recalls finally stop, and everyone forgets about it by then.

[pbrower2a]

I think that people are scared to admit that they loathe him to a pollster now. There's nothing that he has done to win support... but many interests have created a climate of fear in Wisconsin. Whether that translates into voting is a different matter.

[Eraserhead]

If Scott Walker wins the recall, I think Romney will win WI.

Wanna bet?