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| | |-+  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  NH-PPP: Obama up by 12
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Author Topic: NH-PPP: Obama up by 12  (Read 1672 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2012, 01:02:54 pm »
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I'm skeptical that Obama's leading by that much or by any at all.

Most polls I've seen have had Romney leading(albeit narrowly) or have been a complete tossup.

^^^ this. Color me skeptical.

I think Obama is well ahead of Mittens but double digits seems way too optimistic.
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« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2012, 05:21:52 pm »
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Yeah, this is too much.  Obama's not up by 12 in NH.
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« Reply #27 on: May 16, 2012, 05:32:26 pm »
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The biggest problem with calling it a 1/64 chance is that you're treating these states' voting as independent events when they are clearly related to each other. A candidate is more likely to carry one swing state if he's already carrying others. There is a good chance one candidate, whether it is Obama or Romney, wins all of those states. That is one of the most likely outcomes.

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R2D2
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« Reply #28 on: May 16, 2012, 06:04:33 pm »
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Yeah, this is too much.  Obama's not up by 12 in NH.

This.

Ultimately, he'll probably win the state, but not by 12. No way.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #29 on: May 17, 2012, 05:26:18 am »
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I like how everyone (on both sides) speaks in such certain terms about how everything will happen, LOL. We have a long way to go here, maybe this board should be shut down for a few months.
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