WI-Sen: All Republicans leading Baldwin

[krazen1211]

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2012/5/11/WI/123/MjpEP


Thompson: 47
Baldwin: 42

Neumann: 46
Baldwin: 42

Hovde: 45
Baldwin: 41




Lol, when PPP and Kos have you down to everyone, you might want to find a new candidate.

[Vosem]

It's rather difficult to trust this after PPP showed Obama up by 12 in NH...

[krazen1211]

The Kos commentors are 'Junk Poll!' ing their own poll.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Mark Neumann for Senate ^__^

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

That's a poll for a recall election in June that shows a massive enthusiasm gap...

[RogueBeaver]

I can see Thompson leading by 5. Neumann maybe, Hovde definitely not.

[DrScholl]

Same old predictable stuff from krazen1211, leave out facts and repeat the same stuff as usual.

[krazen1211]

Same old predictable stuff from DrScholl, ready to cast aside any poll that doesn't say what he wants even if several other polls from several other pollsters say the same.

Including ones from his own chosen pollster, which he just posted a poll from hours ago!

Shrug.



Why bother with polls when you can just ask DrScholls? Lols?

[DrScholl]

I didn't say the poll was wrong, I was just agreeing that it was using a sample based on the recall, that is far more Republican sample than November will likely be. The sample works for the recall itself, but the Senate election isn't held in June.

[morgieb]

Why would Baldwin be losing to Hovde or even Neumann?

[Vosem]

Why would Baldwin be losing to Hovde or even Neumann?

Um...why would Hovde and Neumann be losing to Baldwin?

[freepcrusher]

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2012/5/11/WI/123/MjpEP


Thompson: 47
Baldwin: 42

Neumann: 46
Baldwin: 42

Hovde: 45
Baldwin: 41




Lol, when PPP and Kos have you down to everyone, you might want to find a new candidate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEkWH8DB7b0

[krazen1211]

I didn't say the poll was wrong, I was just agreeing that it was using a sample based on the recall, that is far more Republican sample than November will likely be. The sample works for the recall itself, but the Senate election isn't held in June.

It hardly makes sense at all to call the sample 'far more Republican' than some baseline when Wisconsin lacks partisan voter registration and liberals here were claiming that Democrats were 'highly energized' to recall Scott walker.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEkWH8DB7b0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bImBBTaPDY&feature=related

[morgieb]

Why would Baldwin be losing to Hovde or even Neumann?

Um...why would Hovde and Neumann be losing to Baldwin?

Wisconsin leans left, and Hovde has no name recognition.

[Miles]

Well, this poll sounds better than Rasmussen's junk.

Dr. Scholl, if we were on Facebook, I'd be "liking" all your comments on this thread

[Badger]

The Kos commentors are 'Junk Poll!' ing their own poll.

Kindly stop attention-whoring. Or at least do it in a less half-assed embarassing fashion?

[Vosem]

Why would Baldwin be losing to Hovde or even Neumann?

Um...why would Hovde and Neumann be losing to Baldwin?

Wisconsin leans left, and Hovde has no name recognition.

Wisconsin doesn't lean left -- Wisconsin's House delegation has a Republican majority, its Senate delegation is tied Wisconsin's Governor is a Republican who looks set to be reelected in just a few short weeks, and its legislature is also Republican and popular. Obama did win by 14% in 2008, but that was an unusual fluke; in 2004 and 2000, Wisconsin voted for the Democratic nominee with margins of 0.38% and 0.31%. That's a tilt right state. Baldwin beating Hovde and Neumann implies some special strength in Baldwin or some special weakness in Hovde and Neumann. Neither of which exist.

[DrScholl]

Republicans haven't won Wisconsin at the Presidential level since 1984 and even then, Mondale posted one of his better performances even though he lost. That certainly doesn't equal tilt right, either. Anywhere that voted for Dukakis (save for West Virginia) has a Democratic tilt.

[Vosem]

Republicans haven't won Wisconsin at the Presidential level since 1984 and even then, Mondale posted one of his better performances even though he lost. That certainly doesn't equal tilt right, either. Anywhere that voted for Dukakis (save for West Virginia) has a Democratic tilt.

Dukakis ran for President 24 years ago. Some things have changed since then. You pointed out West Virginia yourself. Wisconsin's shift hasn't been as radical, but it's nevertheless basically a swing state at heart.

In 2004, Wisconsin was the single closest state. In 2000, it was even closer than it was in 2004 (though other states outpaced it that year). Sure, in 2008 Obama won by a lot, but that seemed to have been motivated by regional goodwill which clearly evaporated by 2010.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Wisconsin is like Ohio, only a tad more socially liberal and with unions instead of auto industries.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin is like Ohio, only a tad more socially liberal and with unions instead of auto industries.

Not quite. The Republican politicians in both states may be fairly similar, but the Democrats in Wisconsin are much more liberal than the Democrats in Ohio. Ohio doesn't seem to be nearly as polarized (note a lot of Republicans in Ohio turned against our public employee union reform) and certainly still have a lot of unions, some of them are even made up of auto workers.

[nkpatel1279]

Hovde is going to be the Republican Nominee.
Republican primary base is not going to support Thompson because he is not conservative and he is in his 70's.
Neumann has a history of losing elections. He lost the 1998 US Senate Race to Feingold.
Fitzgerald carries a lot of negative baggage due to his ties to Walker.