FOX National: Obama leads by 7

[ajb]

Obama 46
Romney 39

Was 46-46 three weeks ago. Just in case any narrative about the race was beginning to gel for you...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/05/16/fox-news-poll-obama-pulls-ahead-romney-as-presidential-race-heats-up/

[Oakvale]

Main thing about this poll that jumps out you is the Partisan ID. The D/R/I is 42/34/20%. Like most pollsters out there, Fox is drastically overpolling Democrats. 2008 saw 39/32/29% turnout among Dems. So to believe Fox's poll, you'd have to believe that '12 Democratic turnout will be greater than '08. Almost no one believes that. For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

Umengus? Is that you?

e: Seriously, though, this seems a bit high. I'd say Obama's up 3-4 points nationally at present.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

This is not 2004.

[ajb]

For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

This is not 2004.

It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity.

[AmericanNation]

For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

This is not 2004.

It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity.

If I had to say, I'd say:
1) Republicans are more motivated than 2004
2) Romney is better with independents/moderates than Bush
3) Romney is a better candidate outside of the Bush states than Bush was.   

[BaldEagle1991]

For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

This is not 2004.

It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity.

If I had to say, I'd say:
1) Republicans are more motivated than 2004
2) Romney is better with independents/moderates than Bush
3) Romney is a better candidate outside of the Bush states than Bush was.   

#3 is still false. Romney is no better in the blue states (perhaps except Massachusetts and Michigan) than Bush was.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And to be fair, this isn't 2008

I know.  It's even BETTER than 2008!

[Pacific Councillor Big Wiggly Style]

Surprised to see Obama up by this much in a FOX poll.

[AmericanNation]

For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

This is not 2004.

It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity.

If I had to say, I'd say:
1) Republicans are more motivated than 2004
2) Romney is better with independents/moderates than Bush
3) Romney is a better candidate outside of the Bush states than Bush was.   

#3 is still false. Romney is no better in the blue states (perhaps except Massachusetts and Michigan) than Bush was.

You mean it's false now?  Yea, the challenger of an incumbent typically has to do some work over more than a month long time frame. 

Romney is probably better than Bush (given that a campaign goes on more than a month) in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire.       

[AmericanNation]

back to the topic,

This poll is of Registered Voters... So, of the sample that will actually vote the margin is probably 1 to 3 points. 

[cope1989]

For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

This is not 2004.

It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity.

If I had to say, I'd say:
1) Republicans are more motivated than 2004
2) Romney is better with independents/moderates than Bush
3) Romney is a better candidate outside of the Bush states than Bush was.   

#3 is still false. Romney is no better in the blue states (perhaps except Massachusetts and Michigan) than Bush was.

You mean it's false now?  Yea, the challenger of an incumbent typically has to do some work over more than a month long time frame. 

Romney is probably better than Bush (given that a campaign goes on more than a month) in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire.       

Bush's incumbency status in 2004 was probably equal to Romney's NE/Midwest roots as a challenger, so it's a wash

[MilesC56]

Dominating.

[Fuzzy]

The sampling does favor Democrats a bit much, but it might not be too far off considering that Mitt isn't the most exciting nominee.  

[Jayhawker]

So FOX is only legit when Obama is leading. If Romney leads, its a Republican hack.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The sampling does favor Democrats a bit much, but it might not be too far off considering that Mitt isn't the most exciting nominee.  

The problem with Mitt isn't that he's boring. It's that he's greedy, spoiled, incompetent, extreme, and a nut.

[Jayhawker]

The sampling does favor Democrats a bit much, but it might not be too far off considering that Mitt isn't the most exciting nominee.  

The problem with Mitt isn't that he's boring. It's that he's greedy, spoiled, incompetent, extreme, and a nut.

Lies! Ironic though, you calling someone else an extreme nut.

[NVGonzalez]

Troll polls. Troll polls everywhere

[Umengus]

Main thing about this poll that jumps out you is the Partisan ID. The D/R/I is 42/34/20%. Like most pollsters out there, Fox is drastically overpolling Democrats. 2008 saw 39/32/29% turnout among Dems. So to believe Fox's poll, you'd have to believe that '12 Democratic turnout will be greater than '08. Almost no one believes that. For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

Umengus? Is that you?

e: Seriously, though, this seems a bit high. I'd say Obama's up 3-4 points nationally at present.

lol no, it's not me. just another decent guy... I'm on this forum for 2003 and I have understood that Party id of the samples is the key: cfr last polls: foxnews, ppp,... "junk" polls because party id completely crazy IMO.

"it's the party id, stupid !"

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

back to the topic,

This poll is of Registered Voters... So, of the sample that will actually vote the margin is probably 1 to 3 points. 

It doesn't work like that.

[AmericanNation]

back to the topic,

This poll is of Registered Voters... So, of the sample that will actually vote the margin is probably 1 to 3 points. 

It doesn't work like that.

Sometimes it does work something like that.  How do you think it works?