FOX National: Obama leads by 7 (user search)
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  FOX National: Obama leads by 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FOX National: Obama leads by 7  (Read 1916 times)
Umengus
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Posts: 2,478
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« on: May 17, 2012, 04:16:59 AM »

Main thing about this poll that jumps out you is the Partisan ID. The D/R/I is 42/34/20%. Like most pollsters out there, Fox is drastically overpolling Democrats. 2008 saw 39/32/29% turnout among Dems. So to believe Fox's poll, you'd have to believe that '12 Democratic turnout will be greater than '08. Almost no one believes that. For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

Umengus? Is that you?

e: Seriously, though, this seems a bit high. I'd say Obama's up 3-4 points nationally at present.


lol no, it's not me. just another decent guy... Wink I'm on this forum for 2003 and I have understood that Party id of the samples is the key: cfr last polls: foxnews, ppp,... "junk" polls because party id completely crazy IMO.

"it's the party id, stupid !"
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