FOX National: Obama leads by 7

[Oakvale]

Main thing about this poll that jumps out you is the Partisan ID. The D/R/I is 42/34/20%. Like most pollsters out there, Fox is drastically overpolling Democrats. 2008 saw 39/32/29% turnout among Dems. So to believe Fox's poll, you'd have to believe that '12 Democratic turnout will be greater than '08. Almost no one believes that. For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26%

Umengus? Is that you?

e: Seriously, though, this seems a bit high. I'd say Obama's up 3-4 points nationally at present.