UKIP: Chances of winning Westminster Seats ?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Of course, Labour would never withdraw its candidate for the sake of the UK Independence Party.

If they were smart they would.

Explain.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Every vote for UKIP is a vote taken from the Tories (or .7 of a vote or so), so Labour should try to get them as much publicity and popularity as possible.  I can't imagine that the uncharismatic, unpopular, unexciting and unintereresting Cameron has that much of a personal vote, and it's possible he's even a slight negative.

Perhaps in seats winnable for labour, yes, but the whole of UKIP really is to act as a force for the tory party to go further right (especially, of course, on Europe). So I don't see it as a win-win. And of course Cameron has a personal vote, party leaders always get a large vote simply because of that fact (well, in most jurisidictions).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

the whole of UKIP really is to act as a force for the tory party to go further right

Isn't that *also* good for Labour?  (Of course, most of the issues that UKIP pressures the Tories on were inexplicable "moderation" in the first place, as the "moderate" position is less popular than the "right-wing" position).

Only if you believe that what people really want is "Centrists". Which is nonsense. Only American journalists believe that.

Any vaguely familiar with the history of British politics over the last 40 years could tell you why labour wishing for a more right-wing tory party would not be a wise investment on their part.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That's what I just said...  Even without the presence of UKIP the Tories would win more votes by moving "right" on Europe/immigration/crime.  Of course, the pre-Falklands SDP surge, 1992, Blair, and Cleggmania all seem to suggest that Britons are in search of "centrists," but YMMV.

None of things suggest that Brits are in search of centrists. Cleggmania was a non-event in the end, Blair won in large part due to anti-tory fatigue, it is dubious to say that Major was more centrist than Kinnock in 1992 except that Major and the tories were more familiar and the Pre-Falkands SDP surge had more to do with the fact that Margaret Thatcher and the Tories had spend 3 years destroying Britain's industrial base (1982 was pretty much the nadir of the late 1970s-1980s global recession) and Labour were an organizational mess. But whatever.

I'm not sure whether the Tories would win more votes if they moved to the right, especially as they are very much to the right on everything already. But whatever..