Romney's Minimal Path to victory?

[zorkpolitics]

According to RealClear polling data, Romney is currently leading Obama by 1.4% in the 5 most recent Likely Voter polls (Obama is leading when Registered voter polls are included).  So how would a national lead translate into winning enough states to reach 270 Electoral votes?

I've figured Romney's most likely path to winning was to win the McCain states, then win back the Bush states of IN, FL, NC, VA, OH, the one CD in NE, and NH.  270 exactly, without the Bush states of CO, NV, NM, or IA.

Looking over the state polling data at Real Clear (mostly registered voters and much of it out of date), shows IN, FL, NC and VA are leaning Romney or close.  But he has less support in OH and NH.  Instead he seems to be doing better than I expected in CO, IA and apparently in the non-Bush state of WI.  So maybe this will be Mitt's path to victory:

Regardless of who you think will win in Nov., what do you think would be Romney's minimum path to victory?

[CatoMinor]

[morgieb]

Although Iowa or New Hampshire (not both) are expendable.

[NHI]

Romney: 270

Obama: 268

Romney: 282

Romney: 256

[CatoMinor]

Romney: 282

Romney: 256

lol. So this is a map of 2012 Romney vs 1994 Romney?

[AmericanNation]

According to RealClear polling data, Romney is currently leading Obama by 1.4% in the 5 most recent Likely Voter polls (Obama is leading when Registered voter polls are included).  So how would a national lead translate into winning enough states to reach 270 Electoral votes?

I've figured Romney's most likely path to winning was to win the McCain states, then win back the Bush states of IN, FL, NC, VA, OH, the one CD in NE, and NH.  270 exactly, without the Bush states of CO, NV, NM, or IA.

Looking over the state polling data at Real Clear (mostly registered voters and much of it out of date), shows IN, FL, NC and VA are leaning Romney or close.  But he has less support in OH and NH.  Instead he seems to be doing better than I expected in CO, IA and apparently in the non-Bush state of WI.  So maybe this will be Mitt's path to victory:

Regardless of who you think will win in Nov., what do you think would be Romney's minimum path to victory?

It's basically the Ohio path or this.  I've heard a few times that Romney's campaign really thinks they can win Nevada, I know they can win Wisconsin, and Iowa (or CO) may break toward Romney at some point.         

New Hampshire plays roles in some scenarios, but you get the 269 minimum victory for Romney if he can tack the Maine CD onto NH.  That would really be Awesome/nerve-racking. 

 

[opebo]

Maine is totally unrealistic.  Even New Hampshire is quite unlikely.  It has to be through some odd Midwestern debacle like WI/IA or possibly a Western rehabilitation (CO).

[AmericanNation]

Maine is totally unrealistic.  Even New Hampshire is quite unlikely.  It has to be through some odd Midwestern debacle like WI/IA or possibly a Western rehabilitation (CO).

You may be right, but a Campaign based out of Boston and a Candidate who lives in New Hampshire might be able to pull 5 electoral votes out of New England.  It is not "totally unrealistic", it may be 'somewhat unlikely'.     

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Romney only needs 269 votes to become president.

[Donerail]

Romney only needs 269 votes to become president.

Unless the Democrats win back the House.

[AmericanNation]

Maine is totally unrealistic.  Even New Hampshire is quite unlikely.  It has to be through some odd Midwestern debacle like WI/IA or possibly a Western rehabilitation (CO).

You may be right, but a Campaign based out of Boston and a Candidate who lives in New Hampshire might be able to pull 5 electoral votes out of New England.  It is not "totally unrealistic", it may be 'somewhat unlikely'.     

Tack on Portman, a Dartmouth grad...