I can't decide if Virginia or Ohio is more likely to go Romney. Most the maps here hinge on one or the other going Romney... I think it's probably more likely that Ohio goes for Obama in this election, but as the DC suburbs expand I think Virginia is going to trend more and more democratic.
I think VA is more likely to stay D this time. Obama was 1.4% better in VA than OH in 08. The impact of Fed workers in NOVA does not have an equivalent in OH to hold to D. On a national swing of 2-2.5% R I see VA holding D but OH just moving to R.
