Will Obama Win The 2012 Election?

[old timey villain]

It's incredibly difficult to beat an incumbent president. There has to be a perfect storm of national instability or malaise, an incredibly unpopular incumbent whose base support has collapsed, and an incredibly charismatic and competent opponent who can control the campaign dialogue.

Obama as an incumbent is certainly more vulnerable than Reagan 84 and Clinton 96, mainly because the economy is still gaining footing, but he's still in a stronger position to win than a lot of people would like to admit.

1) Improving economy. Things could change, but we're adding jobs, production levels are increasing and the unemployment rate has dropped dramatically in the last year.

2) Obama's base is secure. He still maintains well over 80% support from Democrats.

3) Romney is still a weak nominee. His favorables are improving, but still pretty bad. He continually makes gaffes, he gets visibly flustered when he's not able to stay on message, and he still hasn't totally connected with the Republican base.

4) Obama still leads in fundraising

5) Incumbency. Obama has shown that, as the incumbent, he can direct the dialogue in his favor. And election data makes it pretty clear that voters aren't willing to oust an incumbent unless things are very very bad.

[old timey villain]

We also need to remember that this forum is a bubble. 90% of Americans don't invest any time and energy into politics until maybe a few weeks before election day, so we're not really representative of the average voter who, honestly, could care less about politics and campaigns.

Once we hit September, after the conventions, then maybe our predictions will hold water. But as of now, anything can happen.

[old timey villain]

We also need to remember that this forum is a bubble. 90% of Americans don't invest any time and energy into politics until maybe a few weeks before election day, so we're not really representative of the average voter who, honestly, could care less about politics and campaigns.

Once we hit September, after the conventions, then maybe our predictions will hold water. But as of now, anything can happen.

But whoever is answering the political polls out there in Main Street USA has Romney tied with Obama.  So there are some regular people who prefer Romney. 

If you think regular people don't follow politics and don't care, then Obama should be way up in polling, since normal people will likely prefer whoever is president over a relatively unknown person if they don't follow the news. 

You may be flippant and think normal people don't care about politics.  But here is the secret, normal people care about issues, especially if it affects their daily lives. 

Normal people care about foreign wars, and their sons dying in combat. 
Normal people care about their jobs and their taxes. 
Normal people care about health insurance and tuition.
the elderly care about social security. 

Normal people don't really care about gay marriage, but Obama is trying his hardest to make it the primary reason people vote for him in 2012. 

Normal people might not know how Romney looks like, but right now they are thinking about their jobs, the economy, their families.  Its up to Romney to make the case that he is credible, competent, and stable to be president during the debates. 

um...ok...well I was wasn't really looking for a stump speech but thanks anyway.

People care about issues that affect them, but most don't follow the day to day developments of a presidential campaign until it's almost time to vote. That's what I was getting at.