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Author Topic: French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions  (Read 21035 times)
PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #100 on: May 27, 2012, 04:29:40 pm »

Bouches-du-Rhône

1st (Marseille-11, part of 10 and 12/Vallée de l'Huveaune, UMP^)*: The new first covers all of the 11th arrondissement, the north of the 10th and the south of the 12th. It corresponds to the southern part of the old 8th constituency, and part of the old 1st constituency. It is in eastern Marseille, following the A50 highway. Sarko won 55.8% here and Marion won 25.1%. The 11th is a fairly low-income or lower middle-class area in general, with blue-collar or working poor areas in the Vallée de l'Huveaune but more affluent parts in the hills. The 12th is much more affluent, except for a few areas, with some much nicer houses. Sarko won 63% in the canton of Les Trois-Lucs, which includes some of the more affluent parts of the 11th and 12th. Hollande, on the other hand, won 52% in the canton of Saint-Martin, which includes less affluent and oftentimes big HLM concentrations in the valley along the highway. The far-right is predictably weak in the affluent neighborhoods, but polls very well in the valley's more lower-income and blue-collar areas. Marion won 28.8% in the canton of Saint-Martin and 27.5% in the canton of La Pomme (which is not entirely part of this constituency, but the neighborhood of La Pomme itself is - it is a low-income area). The area is somewhat isolated from the downtown parts, in parts it is quite economically and socially marginalized; a perfect recipe, again, for a strong FN vote. The old eight constituency's UMP incumbent, Valérie Boyer, is running here, with Roland Blum, the UMP incumbent in the old first, as her suppleant. She faces a strong NC candidacy from Robert Assante, mayor of the 6th sector and CG for Les Trois-Lucs. The PS candidate is Christophe Masse, a scion of a political family which used to be dominant in the city, CG for Les Olives and former deputy for the eight between 2002 and 2007. The FN is likely to make a triangulaire here, which would be closely fought. Boyer-Blum are a pretty strong duo, and she's an ambitious young member of the Droite pop which can be counted on to appear as a FN-lite. Masse is also a strong candidate. A triangulaire could be very dangerous for the right. A close race for sure.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

2nd (Marseille-7 and 8, UMP)*: The second expands to take in parts of the old third (the canton of Saint-Lambert) but loses part of the canton of Vauban. The boundaries are simple, otherwise: the entirety of the 7th and 8th arrondissements of Marseille, the southern coast of the city, south of the Vieux-Port. The 7th and 8th are some of the most affluent parts of the city, especially the Roucas-Blanc, Bompard, Endoume, Périer, La Plage and Saint-Giniez areas. You do have some more bobo or less affluent parts around the Vieux-Port area, but overall this is an affluent constituency. Sarko won 60.8% here, Marine won only 16.8%. Sarko nearly won 68% in the canton of Saint-Giniez, and won over 55% in La-Pointe-Rouge and Saint-Lambert cantons. The incumbent in the old second is Dominique Tian (UMP) since 2002. He won by the first round with over 57% in 2007. He will certainly win again this year, possibly by the first round given the low calibre of left-wing candidates in this conservative stronghold. The FN is unsurprisingly weak here, so no big FN presence should be counted on in these parts.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
3rd (Marseille-13, part of 12 and 14, notional PS):* Nothing to do with the old third: the new third takes in all of the 13th, parts of the 12th and parts of the 14th arrondissements of the city. It corresponds, grosso-modo, to the north of the old 8th constituency and northeast of the old 7th in northeastern Marseille. After the bourgeois of the 2nd constituency, welcome to another world. The 13th is not entirely a low-income area, as its outskirts include some more exurban areas which are a tad more affluent and which post higher number in terms of education or house ownership. But parts of the 13th (Saint-Jérôme and Malpassé especially) and the parts of the 14th included here (Bon-Secours, Saint-Barthélémy etc) are very poor, working-class or blue-collar 'inner city' type areas: big HLM developments (or small houses), areas classified as 'ZUS' (zone urbaine sensible, aka dumps), very low education (sometimes over 40% with no certifications at all), very high unemployment, young populations, multicultural, crime problems and almost every other thing which comes along with blighted inner cities. Hollande won 50.7% here, but the area in general is shifting to the right in general. Marine placed second on April 22 with 26.2% here, doing well throughout the 13th (the more 'exurban' parts are not nearly as affluent as the 12th...) and 14th. I do suspect that Sarko won on May 6 in the more exurban/non ZUS parts of the 13th, while Hollande won by pretty big margins in the ZUS areas. The way Marleix used the scissors here, I think he envisioned for the right to be able to win this seat (like Boyer won the old 8th narrowly in 2007: that seat had voted PS in 1993...) in a year like 2007, but I doubt the UMP can stand a chance in 2012. The FN will do very well, and either go in a triangulaire or a straight PS-FN runoff. The PS incumbent here is Sylvie Andrieux, who is, of course, being a Socialist in Marseille (or - more fairly - a politician in Marseille) a crook/criminal. She has held the old 7th since 1997, a year in which the FN won 42.2% in the runoff. The candidate for the FN, who is more likely to make a strong presence than the UMP's sacrificial lamb, Stéphane Ravier, already won 11.8% in the awful year of 2007 in the old 7th and is well based in northern Marseille. I wouldn't be surprised if the UMP's Nora Preziosi is out by June 10.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured

4th (Marseille-1, 2, 3, parts of 5 and 6, notional PS)*: Again, nothing to do with the old fourth: this constituency takes in all of the 1, 2 and 3rd arr. of Marseille and parts of the 5th and 6th. In terms of constituency, it includes parts of the old 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th. This seat is a great example - once again - of packing, or what has been called by some in France the "Indian reserve" strategy. Indeed, this seat, in which Hollande won 69.4% (!) is one of the safest seats for the left in France. It includes a lot of very poor and historically working-class 'inner city' areas of Marseille in the downtown area (most of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd arr.). Unemployment is 32.4% in the 3rd, 30.8% in the 2nd (including 41% in Grands-Carmes) and 26.7% in the 1st. The seat, for good measure, also takes in the most leftie parts of the 5th and 6th: Camas in the former, Notre-Dame-du-Mont/Cours Julien in the latter. In political terms, it is not very important. In social terms, however, these two neighborhoods are the bobo citadels of the city, the Cours Julien being a very popular place for students/artsy types/bobos in general. There is also gentrification at work in the 1st (in 2009, the Greenies won over 26% in the 1st...) and parts of the 2nd (Arenc). Patrick Mennucci, an ambitious PS bigwig (and opponent of the Godfather, Guérini) and mayor of the 1st sector, who narrowly lost in the old 3rd in 2007, is running here. The UMP (16.6% for Sarko on April 22) and the FN (14.5% for Marine) won't be a presence, so the fight is on the left. I must say that the UMP candidate is not a nobody; Solange Biaggi, the new CG for ND-du-Mont, though she only won in 2011 because the division of the left against a corrupt PRG incumbent (in a type of place which isn't too keen on reelecting corrupt lefties...) allowed her to face the FN in the runoff. Mennucci faces a dissident PS candidacy from Lisette Narducci, mayor of the 2nd sector and CG for La Belle-de-Mai. Narducci is a close ally of the Godfather. The FG could make its mark here, where Mélenchon placed second with 19.9%. At any rate...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Marseille-4, parts of 5 and 6, UMP)*: The new fifth includes all of the 4th arr. and the parts of the 5th and 6th which aren't included in the 4th constituency. This is a swing seat. Hollande won only 50.2% of the vote here on May 6. It is hard to give a sound descriptor to the whole of this constituency. The 4th arr. is a fairly middle-class area, with some bobo influences (Cinq-Avenues). The 5th arr. is also middle-class, with some more low-income or blue-collar areas. On the other hand, the 6th is an old bourgeois stronghold which is undergoing big sociological changes: Castellane and Lodi are attractive hip spots for the youth and students, and there is a big boboisation phenomenon at work. Hollande won the 6th arrondissement with 51% (though he might have lost outside of ND-du-Mont...), which was a major shock in this old right-wing stronghold. This is the big race in Marseille this year. On the right, Renaud Muselier, UMP incumbent in the old 5th since 1993, is running here. He is another ambitious right-winger in Marseille, and an influential political leader of the UMP in the department. He faces a more divided left. The PS candidate is junior minister Marie-Arlette Carlotti, CG for Les Cinqs-Avenues. The FG is behind Frédéric Dutoit, the former PCF deputy for the old 4th constituency, defeated in 2007. The far-right will probably not make a triangulaire here, where Marine won 18.8% which is probably a bit under what will be needed for the FN to qualify for the runoff.  The main fight is Carlotti/Muselier, which will certainly go down to the wire. A triangulaire would likely be very tough for the UMP, given that the FN vote around here generally transfers to the right in cases of UMP-PS runoffs. I'll cop out of predicting this one and choose the easy way out Smiley
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup
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« Reply #101 on: May 27, 2012, 05:27:20 pm »
Ignore

I've already said what is interesting, but let's be more precise Smiley :
apart from Bouches-du-Rhône,
Oise
Meurthe-et-Moselle
Yonne
Hauts-de-Seine
Essonne
Val d'Oise
Gard
Hérault
Loire
Aisne
Doubs
are the first tier I think.
And probably in that order Tongue

After, that, if you've got time left:
Seine-et-Marne
Nord
Vaucluse
Val-de-Marne
Moselle
Drôme
Meuse
Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Réunion
Lot-et-Garonne
Haute-Loire
can be interesting too.

Thanks a lot for the work already done.
You should write a book Smiley
« Last Edit: May 27, 2012, 07:55:52 pm by big bad fab »Logged

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big bad fab
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« Reply #102 on: May 27, 2012, 06:23:06 pm »
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Pas-de-Calais: I agree with you for everything, especially on the 6th and the 12th, the PS-diss. will prevail in eahc case.
In the 7th, the PS will win: Hénin is a bit out-of-date now.
In the 11th, well, unfortunately, Mélenchon will probably prevail over the PS candidate Sad and so end winning this stuff.

Bouches-du-Rhône: The 1st and the 5th are probably the GREATEST fights this year... So entertaining !
I think Boyer will win in the 1st by a small margin in a triangulaire (I may be the only man in France to make these subtle differences, but I think Boyer is more on the left of the Droite Populaire Tongue; she's not exactly FN-lite; she's more an opportunist that I've envisioned some time ago to be Gaudin's heir (and not Muselier). But it's more a hope than a real prediction, because Assante will hurt her very much.... Sad
In the 5th, I predict a PS win over Muselier: Gaudin will kill him without saying it Tongue and Muselier is'nt a very good campaigner. Marseilles' inhabitants will like to have a minister, because they are frustrated for so long...
As for the 3rd, we may have an interesting scenario: a triangulaire with the UMP in the 3rd position and so hurting the FN. Otherwise, it could have been a winnable seat for the FN.
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« Reply #103 on: May 27, 2012, 08:14:22 pm »

Bouches-du-Rhône

6th (Marseille-9, parts of 10, UMP)*: Loses the northern part of Les Pommes, gains most of La Capelette. It includes the large 9th and the remainders of the 10th arr. The 9th is a rather middle/upper middle class place all in all (especially Le Cabot and La Panouse), but it certainly includes some lower-income and more left-leaning areas (Baumettes, Sormiou). In the 9th, Sainte-Marguerite, and most of the 10th is not as affluent, it is more of a lower middle-class/suburban style found in the first constituency. An old white working-class in parts, today a poorer and more socially marginalized population of 'petits blancs'. Sarko won 56% here and Marine took 23% here, doing best around the north of the 9th and the 10th. The UMP incumbent since 1993 in the old sixth is Guy Tessier, mayor of the 5th sector. Despite his old age, he is running for yet another term. He should win rather easily, because he remains a popular incumbent with a good local record. The fact that the PS is backing an EELV candidate here, not of very high calibre, should also help matters. He is safe even in the event of a very likely triangulaire with the FN. Sarko had been way ahead on April 22 already.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

7th (Marseille-15, 16, parts of 14, PS)*: This seat includes all of the 15th and 16th arr. and parts of the 14th arr. in northwestern Marseille, the core left-wing stronghold in the city. This seat includes most of the old 4th constituency, which was a PCF stronghold between 1958 and 2007, when the PCF lost this seat to the PS' Henri Jibrayel. The 2007 election marked the first election since 1958 (when the PCF won only 10 seats, remember...) that Marseille had no PCF deputy. In 2008, the PCF lost control of the 8th sector of the city to the PS. This is an extremely poor "inner-city" type of seat. In some neighborhoods of the 15th, like Les Crottes (a fitting name...), I'd wager that the feel, both socially and economically, is closer to North Africa than to western Europe. This doesn't just mean that there's a big immigrant population - there is - but the economic and social conditions are hardly better than in Algeria. Unemployment almost always above 30%, about 40% or more with no diploma, almost all of the area covered by a ZUS and so forth. The 16th is similar: an old working-class area which is now deprived and marginalized. L'Estaque is a bit more bobo and trendy, but right next door Saint-André is a cité populaire. The parts of the 14th included in this constituency tell a similar story: cités populaires, ZUS, low-income, old working-class, very ethnically diverse (example: Le Font-Vert), super high unemployment, terrible education numbers and so forth. Hardly a place you'd like to live in. Politically, the left is super-dominant, with the FN usually a distant second and the UMP polling like the plague. Hollande won 67.1% here, in the first round Sarko won only 13%, behind Marine (23.2%). While there are tons of likely FN voters (old WWC types), there are basically no large communities of traditional UMP voters. The PCF, as aforementioned, used to be super-dominant in northern Marseille, but it has been losing rapidly in recent years. In 2007, the PCF incumbent in the old 4th, Frédéric Dutoit, won third place in the first round with only 19%, allowing the PS' Henri Jibrayel to topple this historic PCF stronghold, which had voted Communist with almost no interruptions since 1936 or so. This year, the race is on the left or at best left-FN. The FG is keen on reconquering this old Commie bastion which gave 18.6% to Melenchon on April 22. Jean-Marc Coppola, a regional councillor, is the FG's candidate here. He faces the PS incumbent, Jibrayel, but also an EELV candidate (Karim Zéribi) who is well implanted locally. The FN is running Bernard Marandat, who will try to make the runoff, but because of low turnout, he will likely need to place second in order to do so. On the left, the FG in the department is on bad terms with the PS and this could throw cold water on any PS-FG deals between June 10 and 17. A PS-FG-FN triangulaire is not impossible, but a PS-FN or FG-FN runoff could be more likely. I think Jibrayel can hold on here, but at any rate...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

8th (Salon-de-Provence/Berre-l'Étang, notional UMP)*: The old eight was in Marseille, this new one covers the cantons of Salon, Berre-l'Étang and Pelissanne. This a fairly socially diverse constituency, but right-leaning overall. Sarko won 57.3% but Panzergirl won 25.1%. Berre-l'Étang is fairly left-wing, because it is a working-class and industrial city on the industrialized Étang de Berre (refineries, chemical industry). Marine won 29% there, Hollande then took 55.6%. Pelissanne and most of its canton (except for Lançon-Provence) are affluent suburbs for Aix or Marseille, so they are strongly right-wing though the FN is fairly weak. Salon-de-Provence is a more middle-class city, Marine won 24% despite a strong centrist tradition. This will be a race to follow. The left is divided. The PS is suffering from the contested candidacy of Olivier Ferrand, the president of the Terra Nova think-tank (which many on the left are critical of) who is originally from the area but with no political ties to the region. His suppleant, Jean Pierre Maggi, is a close ally of the Godfather. He does not any face dissident candidacies from the PS and has EELV's support. The UMP's candidate is a local, unlike the FN, PS and FG candidates: Nicolas Isnard, local councillor in Salon. A triangulaire is very likely, and this could be very bad for the right, even though Sarko was ahead here in the first round. I still think the UMP will pull through here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

9th (Aubagne/La Ciotat/Cassis, UMP): Unchanged constituency, still focused on Aubagne and its area. This constituency has shifted dramatically to the right. Sarko won 56.5% here. Aubagne used to be a fairly blue-collar town and a PCF stronghold - in fact, it is still ruled by the PCF. La Ciotat used to be a big shipbuilding capital until the 1980s, but since then, with a shift towards tourism and suburbanization, the right has gained the upper hand in the old PCF stronghold. Cassis, right next door, is a very affluent resort town, which gave no less than 72% to Sarkozy. Outside of these cities, this is a fairly affluent middle-class and very suburban constituency, with a pied-noir tradition (especially in Carnoux-en-Provence). Le Pen won 23.6%, strong but not exceptionally so. This seat was held by the PCF between 1962 and 2000, and never elected a right-winger until a 2000 by-election when the UDF's Bernard Deflesselles gained the seat from the PCF. He won easily against the FN in 2002 and then by the first round in 2007 with 51.8% in the first round. He is running again this year and enters as the favourite. The PS is backing EELV here, but the main left-wing candidate is likely Pierre Mingaud, the PCF mayor of La-Penne-sur-Huveaune. There remains a PCF tradition, Melenchon took over 18% in Aubagne and 14.2% in the constituency. The FN's Joëlle Melin seems to well implanted locally and will likely feature in a triangulaire, but I doubt the UMP would be seriously threatened in a triangulaire.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

10th (Gardanne/Allauch, UMP)*: Loses Le Pennes-Mirabeau and gains a part of Aix-SO (commune of Meyreuil). The old working-class town of Gardanne (a big aluminium/metallurgical plant), where the PCF remains quite strong (nearly 20% for Melenchon) and the suburban middle-class town of Allauch (the UMP and FN dominant) are the main towns in this constituency. Outside of Gardanne proper, this is a fairly middle-class suburban constituency, though this is more of a "periurbain subi" (people 'forced' out of Marseille) who resent long commutes, high commodity and property prices and who are big on immigration/security concerns. This has shifted right a lot in recent years, Sarko won 56% here and Marine won 25.3% in the first round (doing best in Allauch). The UMP's Richard Mallié gained this seat in 2002, defeating Roger Meï, the PCF incumbent since 1996. In 2007, he won reelection with 57.1% against Meï. As in Aubagne, this constituency had not elected a right-winger since 1958, even in 1993 it was held by... Bernard Tapie. In the past, PCF and PS alternated, with a slight advantage for the PCF. This year, the seat was conceded to EELV by the PS, but I would think that the FG's Yveline Primo, local councillor in Gardanne, is the main left-wing candidate here. There is an outside chance the left's division could exclude it from the runoff, but I doubt it. The FN will probably make a triangulaire here and do fairly well. It is a very tough race, but I'd think the right can narrowly hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

11th (Les Pennes-Mirabeau/Aix-en-Provence sud, UMP)*: Gains Les Pennes-Mirabeau and a part of the city of Aix-en-Provence included in the NE canton but loses Meyreuil (but keeps all of the canton of Aix SO outside of that), Salon-de-Provence and Pelissanne. I haven't checked which part of the city of Aix is gerrymandered into this seat, but I have my own little idea (a ZUS...). Les Pennes-Mirabeau is a middle-class suburban town, formerly more blue-collar, but more of a lower middle-class white suburb nowadays full of FN voters (32% for Marine). Septèmes-les-Vallons is an old PCF stronghold. The rest of the constituency is much less frontiste: only 20.4% for Marine in the constituency, which gave 56.2% to Sarko. Why? It includes the affluent neighborhoods of Aix-en-Provence and its similarly affluent and professional upper middle-class suburbs (notice the difference in the canton of Pennes-Mirabeau between Pennes-Mirabeau and Cabriès...). The right in Aix is a world away from the right in Aubagne or Marignane: it is much less likely to go insane about immigration and security, it has a far more centrist/moderate/pro-European/social liberal penchant. After all, Aix is a uni town, very professional, fairly affluent and liberal in the social sense, perhaps even in the economic sense (to American readers: 'economic liberalism' is NOT economically left-wing!). The right has held the old 11th since 1988. Christian Kert has held this seat since then, winning over 61% in the 2007 runoff. He faces Gaëlle Lenfant, a PS regional councillor and defeated 2007 candidate. The FN will not make a triangulaire here, most likely, so it will probably be a 'duel' runoff. I think Kert can prevail.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

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« Reply #104 on: May 27, 2012, 08:15:50 pm »

12th (Marignane/Vitrolles/Fascist Country, UMP)*: Basically loses Berre-l'Etang. It includes the fairly well-known (for unfortunate reasons) towns of Vitrolles and Marignane, which are famous for both having elected far-right mayors. Vitrolles, an historically left-leaning and low income working-class city, is now a lower middle-class suburb with crime/immigration/security/marginalization/cost of living concerns. Marignane is a right-wing city with a large pied noir population but a fairly similar social situation. The constituency also includes the canton of Châteauneuf-Côte-Bleue, which mixes some old working-class PCF strongholds (Le Rove) with wealthy suburbs/resorts (Carry-le-Rouet, Sausset-les-Pins) and more lower middle-class suburbs (Châteauneuf-les-Martigues). Sarko won 57.6% here, but Marine came first on April 22 with 29.9%, including 27% in Vitrolles, 35% in Marignane and 31% in Châteauneuf. The far-right has long been very strong here. Vitrolles elected a FN/MNR mayor in 1997, Catherine Mégret, the wife of Bruno Mégret, who turned Vitrolles into the family turf. Bruno the Nazi won 46% in the 1997 runoff against the PS here, and still took 18.6% as a MNR candidate in 2002 (but only 2% in 2007, lol). Catherine Mégret proved to be a terrible mayor who was bent on turning the city into a fascist dictatorship until she lost a 2002 by-election to the left. Marignane was ruled between 1995 and 2008 by Daniel Simonpieri, originally a megretiste FN member who shifted more to the UMP in his last years in office. If the FN is to win a seat here, it will obviously be here. The UMP incumbent since 2002 - in a seat which the right had never won prior to that - is Eric Diard, basically a FN-lite. He won 50.5% by the first round in 2007, and over 55% against the PS in a 2002 runoff. He faces Paul Cupolati (FN). The left is divided between Vincent Burroni, CG/mayor for Châteauneuf and a close friend of the Godfather; and Benjamin Durand, a anti-Godfather local councillor in Aubagne. The left's division could mean that, despite having a sizable base in places like Vitrolles, it could be eliminated by the first round, and Diard could defeat the FN in a mano-a-mano duel in the runoff. A triangulaire, however, would, like in 1993 and 1997, likely be fatal to the right here and open a window for the FN to actually win this seat. The scenario of a left-wing elimination by June 10 appears, in my opinion, fairly likely. A three-way race, for real, to watch.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup (left, right, far-right)

13th (Packing the Lefties in Martigues/Port-Saint-Louis/Fos-sur-Mer/Port-de-Bouc, PCF)*: Gains Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône, loses Istres-nord. Another good example of an "Indian reserve"/packing constituency. Marleix, probably looking beyond 2012, packed the leftie strongholds outside of Marseille into this constituency. It is a largely working-class and low-income constituency made up of the ugly polluted industrial cities of Martigues, Port-de-Bouc, Fos-sur-Mer and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône (shipbuilding, refineries, chemical industry, metallurgy, harbour in Fos). Martigues, Port-de-Bouc and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône are PCF strongholds; Martigues has elected PCF mayors since 1958. Port-de-Bouc and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône gave a *plurality* to Melenchon on April 22 with 36.5% and 32% respectively. That day, Mélenchon won 21.5% in the constituency against 25.6% for Marine, 23.6% for Hollande and 19.5% for Sarko. Hollande won 55.1% in the runoff, including 61% in Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône and 67% in Port-de-Bouc. The right won the old 13th, a tad more right-wing, in 1993, but otherwise it has been a PCF/left bastion. In 2007, Michel Vaxes (PCF, inc since 1997) easily defeated the PS mayor of Fos, René Raimondi, in the first round (30.5% vs. 15.1%) and then won with 56% in the runoff. This year, he is retiring in favour of Gaby Charroux, the PCF CG/mayor of Martigues. Charroux faces a dissident PCF candidacy from Paul Lombard, mayor of Martigues between 1968 and 2009 and deputy between 1988 and 1993. Charroux must all wrestle against René Raimondi, the PS mayor of Fos and 2007 candidate. Charroux is likely the favourite, and the UMP's Michèle Vasserot, despite her very FN-lite attitudes, could be eliminated by the first round and open the path for either a FG-PS-FN runoff or FG-FN runoff. But the redistricting, adding Port-Saint-Louis, is very favourable to the PCF. I think the FG should hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

14th (Aix-en-Provence nord, UMP)*: This seat only loses a part of the canton of Aix NE, noted above. It is centered around Aix, its very affluent suburbs and some more distant exurban/suburban parts in the cantons of Trets and Peyrolles. AFAIK, this seat includes the studenty leftie parts of Aix but also a lot of its more affluent and fairly solidly right-wing (with a negligible FN presence) in the cantons of Aix NE and Trets. The uniqueness of the Aixoise right was discussed above, it is also noteworthy to discuss the fact that Aix - this constituency in particular - has been shifting left while the rest of the 13 outside of Marseille has tacked very hard to the right/far-right. Sarko won, but only with 53%. Marine won only 17.1% here, doing poorly in Aix and even more poorly in its upper middle-class/affluent suburbs. The UMP incumbent since 2002, in a seat held by the right since 1988, is Maryse Joissains-Masini, the UMP mayor of Aix. She is vulgar, authoritarian and stupid but despite all that, and a heterogeneous PS-MoDem opposition front against her, she won the 2009 local by-elections very narrowly. She's old, but she is running again. The NC candidacy of the mayor of Châteauneuf-le-Rouge might hinder her a bit. She faces a local PS mayor, Jean-David Ciot, who might be hurt by his close ties to the Godfather. The FN won't make the runoff, so the runoff is likely UMP-PS. I would love for the vulgar old geezer to lose, but I'm fairly pessimistic.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

15th (Châteaurenard/Saint-Rémy-de-Provence, UMP): This seat gave 60.3% to Sarko, his second best result in the department. Its main towns are Châteaurenard and Saint-Rémy-de-Provence. This is basically suburban/exurban country split between Avignon, Marseille and Nimes. This region is generally lower middle/middle-class, with a large population of intermediate-grade professionals and employees. You guessed it: Marine did great here (26.5%). The right has been triumphant here since 1988. In 2007, the UMP mayor of Châteaurenard, Bernard Reynès, defeated longtime (since 1988) incumbent here, Léon Vachet. The runoff opposed these two right-wingers, the dissident won with 61.7%. Bernard Reynès is the big favourite for a second term, facing the leftie Nicette Aubert, a local councillor and ex-PCF, and the FN's Olivia Ponsdesserre. A UMP-FN runoff or a triangulaire is likely, but the right will win no matter what.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

16th (Camargue/Arles/Istres, PS)*: Loses Port-Saint-Louis but gains Istres-nord. The constituency's main cities are Arles, a fairly politically marginal city which is fairly poor and traditionally working-class (but at the local level it is ruled by the PCF), part of Istres which is a traditionally working-class PS stronghold, Miramas (a cite cheminote, afaik) and Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer (a right-wing resort town). The redistricting clearly aimed to make this seat a bit more marginal or even right-leaning. Sarko won 51.8% here, but in the first round he placed third because Marine took 27.8%. The incumbent since 2007 is the president of the region, Michel Vauzelle, who had already held the seat between 1988 and 1993 and 1997 and 2002. He won in a triangulaire in 1997, lost narrowly to the UMP mayor of Saintes-Maries Roland Chassain and defeated Chassain with 52.3% in the runoff. Roland Chassain is indeed running again, and in a 2007-like year, he would likely win because of the new boundaries. But this year? With a FN almost certain to make it a three-way (lol) with Valérie Laupies, Vauzelle should win fairly easily.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
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« Reply #105 on: May 27, 2012, 08:18:05 pm »

In the 7th, the PS will win: Hénin is a bit out-of-date now.

In this case, I must disagree pretty strongly. From what I've been reading from people on the ground there and all, which is a big part of my research going into this (I do tons of research for this, hence why I won't finish all 577), it would appear as if the FG is the favourite. You might have the last laugh, but forced to choose, I'd go FG.
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« Reply #106 on: May 27, 2012, 08:22:58 pm »
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Hope you're right with Hénin: that would be fun Wink

If you don't mind and even if it's pretty useless, as I don't put any explicit reason, here is my updated map:


With territorial continuity Tongue

It makes me think that some constituencies are of interest in some uninteresting departements:
Aveyron 3rd
Ardèche 3rd
Jura 3rd
Côte d'Or 2nd
Gironde 8th and 10th
Vosges 2nd and 4th (unfortunately, I think Lang will be lected Sad)
Cher 1st (of course !)
and Lozère, after all.... Tongue

Aude 2nd and Haute-Garonne 3rd and 9th are only interesting because we don't know which leftist will win.
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« Reply #107 on: May 28, 2012, 05:47:57 am »
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Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?


Anyways...



Safe left : 57
Left favored : 6
Lean left : 7
Left : 70

Tossup - left edge : 10
Pure tossup : 7
Tossup - right edge : 13
Tossup : 30

Lean right : 15
Right favored : 13
Safe right : 15
Right : 43

2007 : Left 66 / Right 83.
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« Reply #108 on: May 28, 2012, 05:59:28 am »

Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?

Besides being notoriously bad at being concise, there are just way too many interesting things to say about each seat that long comments end up being useful for those who want to understand what's going on. I might do more if I just told you who the candidates were and gave a raw prediction, but that would be incomplete, boring, uninformative and as useless as the stupidities posted by journalists. If people actually want to understand the details of this election, then they ought to understand the 'local elections' going on in each constituency. If you want superficial numbers and colourful maps, look up the candidacies yourself and make a map based on your hunches and past results.
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« Reply #109 on: May 28, 2012, 06:07:30 am »
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One 'solution' (though very much time dependent) is to write detailed predictions of areas of special interest, and to put together a prediction map as well. Though, again, it's your free time.
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« Reply #110 on: May 28, 2012, 07:15:30 am »
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Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?

Besides being notoriously bad at being concise, there are just way too many interesting things to say about each seat that long comments end up being useful for those who want to understand what's going on. I might do more if I just told you who the candidates were and gave a raw prediction, but that would be incomplete, boring, uninformative and as useless as the stupidities posted by journalists. If people actually want to understand the details of this election, then they ought to understand the 'local elections' going on in each constituency. If you want superficial numbers and colourful maps, look up the candidacies yourself and make a map based on your hunches and past results.

That's your choice. I have to admit I was primarily looking for a guide of the seats to watch on election day. The detailed geographical and sociological description of each constituency is a great bonus, but I could live without it (especially since you still do it even after the election is over, while predictions are useful before). I have to disagree that a more succint comment accompained by your prediction would be "uninteresting". But anyways, it's your choice since you are the one working at this.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #111 on: May 28, 2012, 10:08:16 am »
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Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?

Besides being notoriously bad at being concise, there are just way too many interesting things to say about each seat that long comments end up being useful for those who want to understand what's going on. I might do more if I just told you who the candidates were and gave a raw prediction, but that would be incomplete, boring, uninformative and as useless as the stupidities posted by journalists. If people actually want to understand the details of this election, then they ought to understand the 'local elections' going on in each constituency. If you want superficial numbers and colourful maps, look up the candidacies yourself and make a map based on your hunches and past results.

That's your choice. I have to admit I was primarily looking for a guide of the seats to watch on election day. The detailed geographical and sociological description of each constituency is a great bonus, but I could live without it (especially since you still do it even after the election is over, while predictions are useful before). I have to disagree that a more succint comment accompained by your prediction would be "uninteresting". But anyways, it's your choice since you are the one working at this.

Hash is right. "Unfortunately" right, we can say. It's because the deadline to put your candidacy in the prefecture is so late that, to be insightful and serious, as Hash wants very rightly to do (because it's histrademark and it's his added value: otherwise, his work wouldn't be so priceful), you don't have enough time in just 3 weeks.
I myself wanted the 577 to be covered but haven't realized that we were so late in May Tongue

Or, Hash should have worked on constituencies months ago and adjusted his predictions with the real list of candidates.
Well, usually, for this type of work, you are heavily paid and sometimes, it's even your job Tongue Grin
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« Reply #112 on: May 28, 2012, 10:33:51 am »
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Bouches-du-Rhône:
In the 12th, I think it will be a duel between FN and UMP (or FN and FN-lite in this case, if you want Wink)
I even think that the left might be expelled from the run-off in the 8th, 9th and 10th due to divisions and bad results.
OK with you for everything, except the 14th. Joissains has made many mistakes in her municipal governance and people are fed up, I think. That's purely a feeling... But you should keep your hopes high, here Grin

Very, very great stuff on Bouches-du-Rhône, Hash. Probably the most difficult department to do, with Nord, Gard sometimes (I don't know this year: still have to do it), Corse and some overseas territories Tongue
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« Reply #113 on: May 28, 2012, 04:03:45 pm »
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I've already said what is interesting, but let's be more precise Smiley :
apart from Bouches-du-Rhône,
Oise
Meurthe-et-Moselle
Yonne
Hauts-de-Seine Nope
Essonne
Val d'Oise
Gard
Hérault
Loire
Aisne
Doubs EDIT: well, not so hard to predict
are the first tier I think.
And probably in that order Tongue

After, that, if you've got time left:
Seine-et-Marne
Nord
Vaucluse
Val-de-Marne
Moselle
Drôme
Meuse
Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Réunion
Lot-et-Garonne
Haute-Loire
EDIT: Ardennes !
can be interesting too.

Thanks a lot for the work already done.
You should write a book Smiley
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« Reply #114 on: May 28, 2012, 04:05:34 pm »

Ugh, I hate doing this and this feels dirty, but I guess I feel constrained to swoop down to media pundit levels and give superficial profiles. If I don’t give any sociological precisions, it’s not because I can’t but because it doesn’t seem to be necessary for the people who read this Sad From now on, this will suck balls, and I apologize to people like Fab, but life sucks… I hope the armchair critics will be pleased by this newish format.
 
Gard
2007: 3 UMP, 1 NC, 1 PS

1st (Nîmes/Beaucaire, NC)*: Nicely gerrymandered constituency. It loses Nîmes-4 and 5 but gains the canton of Beaucaire. Sarko won 52.2% here, due entirely to strong results in Vistrenque and Beaucaire, lower middle-class suburbs of Nice in the Rhône valley with a strong FN base (Marine: 25.5% in the first round here, but 34% in Beaucaire!). This gerrymandered seat includes two left-wing ‘populaire’ cantons of Nîmes, the 6th (65% Hollande) and 3rd (56% Hollande). The PCF held this seat between 1997 and 2002 with the former mayor of Nîmes Alain Clary, but since 2002 it has been held by the NC’s Yvan Lachaud. In 2007, he won reelection with 57% in the runoff against the PS, which had narrowly outpaced Clary in the first round. Lachaud is running again, but the right is divided because of the candidacy of the PRV mayor of Beaucaire, Jacques Bourbousson. On the left, the PS should easily be dominant, with the 2007 candidate, Françoise Dumas, a local and regional councillor who benefits from EELV’s backing. The FN, near-certain to make a triangulaire, is represented by Julien Sanchez, a regional councillor. The FN cannot win here, but a triangulaire in which the right suffers from first round division could be fatal to Lachaud. The PS has a real chance here, unfortunately for Marleix’s scissors.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
2nd (Saint-Gilles/Aigues-Mortes/Vauvert/Camarague gardoise, UMP)*: Loses Beaucaire and Marguerittes, gains Sommières. This constituency, which gave 56% to Sarko but above all else gave Marine 28.9% and comfortable first place on April 22, is one of the FN’s top targets. This seat includes the low-lying lands of the ‘Camargue gardoise’ with its big fruit farms (and fruit farmers love ‘em some FN) and the lower middle-class exurb/suburb towns of Saint-Gilles, Vauvert and Aigues-Mortes. The FN has always been very strong, Saint-Gilles, which gave over 35% to Panzergirl, was the first city to be ruled by the FN, between 1989 and 1992. In 1997 and 2002, the FN featured in triangulaires in the old second, the first of which resulted in a narrow PS win and the second of which, in 2002, resulted in a narrow win by Étienne Mourrut (who won reelection in 2007 with nearly 60% against the PS). The famous lawyer Gilbert Collard is running for the FN this year, against Mourrut and the PS’ Katy Guyot. The left has been seriously weakened here in the past decade(s) or so, and Hollande took about 22% in the first round. The absence of an EELV candidate helps the PS, but it is possible that the runoff would be just UMP-FN, in which case Mourrut would likely win. However, Collard should hope for a triangulaire in which he might well be the favourite, benefiting from his fairly moderate image for a FN candidate and the incumbent’s share of problems. I’ll cop-out, again, from a solid prediction here, but I’d either be safe and say the UMP narrowly pulls this one out or Collard pulls a rabbit out of the hat and wins here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup (right-left-far-right)
 
3rd (Villeneuve-lès-Avignon/Bagnols-sur-Cèze, UMP)*: Loses Uzès and Pont-Saint-Esprit. Sarko took 55.3% here, Marine won second place behind him with 25.9% in the first round. Besides Villeneuve-lès-Avignon which are more affluent and less frontiste-voting suburbs of Avignon, this region is a largely suburban/exurban region, fairly middle-class and usually white-collar. The left retains some strength here, especially in Bagnols-sur-Cèze. Since 2002, the seat has been held by the UMP’s Jean-Marc Roubaud, mayor of Villeneuve-lès-Avignon. He should not face much trouble winning reelection this year, even in the high likelihood of a triangulaire with the FN, like in 1997 or 2002. The PS candidate is Patrice Prat, CG for Roquemaure.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
4th (Alès-est/Pont-Saint-Esprit, UMP)*: Lots of boundary changes here: loses Génolhac, Grand-Combe, Bessèges but gains Pont-Saint-Esprit. Hollande won 51.7% here, and Sarko had placed a distant third in the first round with only 22.4%, with Marine winning the constituency with 25.8%. This is a weird and incoherent constituency, taking two eastern cantons of Alès, the ‘capital’ of the Cévennol mining basin, and extending all the way to the Rhône in the canton of Pont-Saint-Esprit. It ends up mixing from lower-lying and lower middle-class suburbs/exurbs (cantons of Saint-Chaptes, Pont-Saint-Esprit) with some old mining cantons (Saint-Ambroix, Alès NE). Marine’s result was surprisingly strong in this constituency, which has not usually been one of the FN’s strongest in the department. Since 2002, the seat has been held by the UMP mayor of Alès, Max Roustan. The seat’s old boundaries had been more conducive to electing PCF members, which it did in 1988 and 1997. In 2007, Roustan won 53.2% in the runoff against the former PCF deputy. Though Mélenchon won 15.2% here, the loss of Grand-Combe and Génolhac will hurt the FG candidate, Édouard Chaulet, PCF mayor/CG of Barjac. The PS’ Fabrice Verdier, mayor of Fons-sur-Lussan, should dominate on the left. A triangulaire with the FN is quite likely, but I think that in either scenarios, Roustan is about toast. He’s a fairly useless deputy and the seat leans to the left.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
 
5th (Cévennes/Grand-Combe/Alès-ouest, PS)*: Loses Sommières, gains Génolhac, Grand-Combe, Bessèges. Hollande won 56.7% in this seat, whose raison-d’être, for Marleix, was to be a packing-the-lefties constituency. It mixes some PCF strongholds in the old mining basin (Grand-Combe, Génolhac – Mélenchon took 24% and 25% in those two cantons) with some other left-wing strongholds in the Cévennes, a left-wing region overall, in good part due to heavy Protestant (Calvinist) influences. The cantons of Quissac, Saint-Mamert-du-Gard and Lédignan (Anduze and Sauve to a lesser extent) are in Nîmes’s suburban/exurban influence and tend to give the FN (Marine won 22.8% in the 5th, her weakest in the Gard) its strongest results, while the Cévennes, still largely rural, remain, on the whole, more resistant to the FN and retain their left-wing traditions. This is the only PS seat in the department, held by William Dumas since 2004. The right only won it in 1993. Dumas is running again, but the Greens and FG, which are both fairly strong in this constituency (especially the FG, Mélenchon won 17.8%), have strong candidates. The EELV candidate is the Green CG/mayor of Le Vigan, with the CG for Anduze as his running mate. The FG, which can count on the mining cantons in the north, is backing the PCF CG for Alès W. The right will not be a significant factor, and I do not think that the FN will qualify for the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
6th (Nîmes/Uzès, notional UMP)+: This new constituency includes three cantons of Nîmes, Uzès and Marguerittes. It includes more affluent and right-leaning neighborhoods of Nîmes (though one of the cantons of Nîmes included here voted for Hollande), the city of Uzès (fairly marginal politically, but it voted for Hollande, though the canton did not) and the lower middle-class suburban canton of Marguerittes, where Marine won over 31%. The seat is basically crafted to elect a right-winger. Sarko placed first in both rounds, winning 53.1% in the runoff. Marine, while strong in Marguerittes, was quite a bit weaker in Nîmes and Uzès, so she only won 24.4% in this seat overall. UMP MEP Franck Proust, a former CG, is the favourite in this new constituency. On the left, the PS is backing the EELV CG for Saint-Chaptes, and there is an outside chance that he could win, but I would bet heavily on the UMP. The FN can probably qualify for the runoff here, but I doubt a triangulaire here would prove particularly dangerous for the UMP.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
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« Reply #115 on: May 28, 2012, 04:07:20 pm »

Lozère
2007: 2 UMP
 
At-large (Lozère, notional UMP)*: Sparsely populated and still heavily rural (and in parts even agricultural) Lozère lost its second seat in the redistricting, so for the first time ever, two departments – Creuse and Lozère – will be returning only one member. In the past, tradition dictated that each department should have two seats. Up until the turn of the century, this seat would have reserved no suspense. Lozère, a Catholic region save for the anti-clerical, Protestant and uber-leftie Cévennes, has usually been a core conservative bastion. This year, however, Sarko only won the department by some 50 votes, with Hollande winning 49.95%, certainly one of the most ‘shocking’ results of May 6. The department had already elected a PS deputy in 1997, in 2008 the left gained the main town, Mende (at the core of the left’s big gains) and in 2011 the long-time baron of the right, Jacques Blanc, lost his Senate seat to the PS mayor of Mende, Alain Bertrand who easily won a senatorial by-election this year. Hollande won nearly 70% in the Cévennes, and though he lost heavily in the Catholic high plateaus of the northeast (Aubrac and Margeride), he won big in Mende (56%...) and even in right-wing towns such as Marvejols, Chanac or Sainte-Enimie. The department remains very rural. The loss of the second seat has created a bad civil war climate on the right between the two UMP incumbents: Francis Saint-Léger, the ‘official’ candidate, member of the Droite pop; and Pierre Morel à-l’Huissier, mayor/CG of Fournels, the dissident, closer to the humanist/centre-right/Wauquiez-ite wing of the UMP. There is also an independent right-wing candidate, Vincent Mathieu. Saint-Léger’s suppléant is the CG/mayor of Saint-Chély. The left’s main candidate is the PS’ Sophie Pantel, CG/mayor of Le-Pont-de-Montvert. This will be a very close race. A triangulaire, UMP-UMP-PS is possible, and the FN could do fairly well, Marine having won over 17% on April 22. The right’s division could leave scars on the UMP, even if there is superficial unity on the right on June 17. Fab says my predictions are too conservative, so I’ll make a fairly daring prediction here... I think the PS pulls this out, and makes history (kind of). In any case, I was thinking about how the first round map by canton here will be fun.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
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« Reply #116 on: May 28, 2012, 04:11:51 pm »
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You can always go into more detail about individual seats - especially if they've had interesting results - when the dust has settled.

Anyways, Lolzère.
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« Reply #117 on: May 28, 2012, 04:35:44 pm »
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Well, if the "democracy" is reigning even here, what can I do ? Sad Tongue

Loire is really, really "fun" BTW.

Glad to see that Lozère is on the left for you, because, tonight I've just changed it on my map Smiley (yeah, they'll kill each other those 2 rightist incumbents...)

As for Gard, I predict a duel in the 2nd, with the UMP able to kill this a**h*ole lawyer.
I disagree in the 3rd: a triangulaire will kill the UMP, I think.
But I unfortunately agree with you on the 1st: the right is divided.
OK for the rest.
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« Reply #118 on: May 28, 2012, 04:55:24 pm »
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Ugh, I hate doing this and this feels dirty, but I guess I feel constrained to swoop down to media pundit levels and give superficial profiles. If I don’t give any sociological precisions, it’s not because I can’t but because it doesn’t seem to be necessary for the people who read this Sad From now on, this will suck balls, and I apologize to people like Fab, but life sucks… I hope the armchair critics will be pleased by this newish format.

I'm not, nor is Fab.
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« Reply #119 on: May 28, 2012, 05:17:29 pm »
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I'll survive Wink

Again, my list of priorities changes !
Hauts-de-Seine has some interesting cases: Santini in the 10th (I think he'll lose !), Devedjian in the 13th (he should prevail); also the 2nd, the 12th and even the 5th (but Balkany will probably win again).

Loire and Ardennes are really weird in my predictions I think: you own thoughts will be very much welcome. See how I need you Grin :



Isère 10th is a constituency to look at, too.
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« Reply #120 on: May 28, 2012, 06:40:34 pm »

Jesus Christ. People will either have to learn to live with the way I'm doing this and stop being armchair critics; or I'll stop doing these altogether and just post a colourful map. I'm already killing all the free time I could have and working every single available minute on this, and I don't find this all that enjoyable of a thing to do after a busy day at work. If you still complain, then please do it yourself.

...

Hérault
 
1st (Montpellier/Lattes, UMP^)*: Loses the 1st and 4th canton of Montpellier but gains the commune of Villeneuve-lès-Maugelone (canton of Frontignan) and the 8th canton of Montpellier. Hollande won by the skin of his teeth here, with 50.4% of the votes. This constituency is divided between Montpellier, which leans heavily to the left, and Lattes, an affluent coastal resort canton (Palavas-les-Flots) which is solidly right-wing. This seat takes in some more lower middle-class urban parts of Montpellier in the south and, I believe, a ZUS. Lattes proper is a bit more marginal, but voted for Sarko by a comfortable margin while Palavas gave nearly 65% to Sarko. The old first elected a Socialist only once, in 1997, thanks to a triangulaire with the FN’s Jean-Claude Martinez. In 2002, the UMP mayor of Palavas, Christian Jeanjean, won the seat and upon his retirement in 2007 he was succeeded by Jacques Doumergue, who won 52.2% in the runoff. This year, Doumergue is retiring and Jeanjean is running again – with the UMP’s support. He had led, in 2010, a dissident list in the regionals which won only 2% of the votes. Though not very dangerous electorally, it is interesting to note that Patrice Drevet, the greenish ex-weatherman is running for the PRV. Jeanjean faces, notably, Jean-Louis Roumégas, EELV local councillor in Montpellier and main regional leader for the Greens. Roumégas benefits from Solférino’s backing, but must first defeat Cyril Meunier, DVG mayor/CG of Lattes, backed by the local PS. The left can definitely win here, especially if the FN’s Alain Jamet can qualify for the runoff. Marine won 20.8% here, doing best in Palavas (27%) and Villeneuve-lès-Maugelone. It is possible, but not all that likely, that the FN will make the runoff. Roumégas is stronger than the average EELV candidate backed by the PS, and this constituency, while not a EELV bastion, is fairly good territory for the Greens. I don’t know who on the left will come out on top, but it will be a close race to follow.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
2nd (Montpellier Salamander, PS^)*: Loses Montpellier’s 2nd and 10th cantons but gains the 1st and 3rd cantons, to create an ugly looking squid/salamander constituency, an Indian reserve for the lefties. Hollande won 65.3% in this constituency, including 73% in Montpellier-9 (the ZUS of La Paillade) and 66% in Montpellier-1 (studentish/bobo downtown). Montpellier itself is a left-wing stronghold since 1977. It has a large student/bobo/young/public sector white-collar population, and is generally middle-class though it has its share of ZUS. The old second was won by the right in 1993 and 2002. In 2002, Doumergue (UMP) had narrowly defeated Georges Frêche, who had won the seat in 1997. In 2007, the powerful PS president of the CG, André Vézinhet – now a “anti-Frêchiste” – won back the seat for the left with 53.9% in the runoff. The redistricting, of course, makes this a left-wing bastion, more so than in the past. Vézinhet is retiring, the PS’ Anne-Yvonne Le Dain is the favourite to succeed him. The Greens (4% for Joly here, not too shabby considering…) and the FG (16.8% for Mélenchon) will be aiming to do quite well. The FG candidate is René Revol, the PG mayor of Grabels and top candidate for the FG in the 2010 regionals. Marine won only 11.6% here, so no triangulaire!
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Montpellier-nord/Castelnau-les-Lez, UMP)*: This seat gains Montpellier-2, but loses Montpellier-3, parts of Lunel (including Lunel proper) and the canton of Mauguio. Hollande won 50.5% in this constituency, due to his 59% in Montpellier-2, which includes the studentish and uni neighborhoods of the city. Indeed, Sarko narrowly dominated Hollande in the suburban parts of the constituency – Castelnau-le-Lez and the canton of Castries. These are upper middle-class, white-collar professional suburbs. The FN is fairly weak overall by local standards; Marine took only 17.6% here. The old third had been won once, in 1997, by the PS. Since 2002 it has been held by Jean-Pierre Grand, a prominent villepiniste and UMP mayor of Castelnau-le-Lez. Grand won 56.7% in the 2007 runoff. He should win a third term this year, facing fairly weak PS opposition (a regional and local councillor, Fanny Dombre-Coste). The FN should not be in a position to qualify for a triangulaire runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
4th (Larzac/Garrigues/Lodève, PRV-UMP)*: This seat loses Montpellier-10, Pignan, Clermont-l’Hérault and Lunas. This seat includes affluent suburbs of Montpellier (cantons of Les Matelles, Aniane, parts of Saint-Martin-de-Londres, Claret) and some growing exurbs (cantons of Mèze, Gignac). Higher up, in the Larzac and Garrigues, the main town is Lodève, a regional centre for a fairly poor and economically troubled semi-rural region. There is a strong socialist and left-wing tradition in the arrière-pays of the Hérault, which allowed Hollande to win 52.4% here. Marine had won 22.1% here, doing best (28%) in the canton of Mèze but also in the Lodevois; though she did quite poorly in Les Matelles. Hollande performed best in the arrière-pays (Larzac and Lodevois) but lost in the canton of Mèze, which has a fairly amusing political history. The old fourth was a left-leaning seat until the UMP’s Robert Lecou won it for the first time in 2002. In 1988, that seat had elected Frêche, who fell victim to a PS dissident in 1993. In 2007, Lecou won 51.7% in the runoff. In 2008, he lost his seat as mayor of Lodève to the PS. He faces Frédéric Roig, the PS CG for Le Caylar. There's an outside chance the FN qualifies for the runoff (3-way), but Jean-Claude Martinez's dissident candidacy might draw a few FN votes away and make way for a normal 2-way. Yves Pietrasanta, the leader of GE and former Green mayor of Mèze, is running here for GE with the PRG's support. In any case, I have a rather hard time seeing Lecou survive.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

5th (Biterrois/Minervois/Vallée de l'Orb/Escandorgue, PS)*: Gains Lunas, Clermont-l'Hérault; loses Servian, Pézenas, Florensac. Hollande won 55.1% in this seat, and Marine won 24% in the first round. The right - and the FN - perform best in the lower middle-class suburban/exurban cantons of Capestang, Murviel-Les-Béziers (Roujan and Montagnac to a lesser extent). These two cantons are located more in the lowlands around Béziers than in the mountainous regions which make up the most of the seat. In general, the arrière-pays here is solidly left-wing. Hollande broke 60% in three inland cantons. Again, the leftie tradition is old and very strong in this region, which is in good part a fairly poor wine-growing region. This is an old left-wing stronghold, parts of this region having been represented by the PS or PCF since 1958 with only one or two interruptions. The old fifth voted for the right only in 1993. Since 2002 it has been held by the PS' Kléber Mesquida, a locally influential 'baron'. Mesquida faces only testimonial opposition. The FN will probably qualify for a triangulaire but won't be all that super powerful.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

6th (Béziers, UMP): A nice and coherent seat which keeps the whole of Béziers together. Sarko won 53.9%, Marine had placed first on April 22 with 27.8%. Béziers has a left-wing or RadSoc past, and at one time the PCF was quite powerful in the region, a core wine-making region. But, economic decline and economic changes (old people, tourism) has shifted the region to the right quite dramatically. Above all, the FN remains very influential in this region, which despite a few resort towns, remains largely lower middle-class, fairly suburbanized and faces major economic problems (unemployment) and has concerns about security and immigration. The FN won 25% in 1997, and allowed the former PS deputy, Alain Barrau, to defeated the UDF incumbent, Raymond Couderc. In 2002 and 2007, Paul-Henri Cugnenc (UMP) was victorious. He took 57.7% in 2007. Since his death in 2007, the seat has been held by Elie Aboud (UMP) who is running again. The runoff will either be a UMP-FN affair (Hollande placed third with 24% in April), with the FN's Guillaume Vouzellaud likely to poll quite strongly. The left here seems quite weak. The FG-PCF candidate is Paul Barbazange, the PS' Dolorès Roqué is only a local councillor. The left could still win in a triangulaire de la mort, like in 1997, but its crop, to me, seems weak.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
7th (Sète/Bassin de Thau/Cap-d'Agde, UMP)*: Gains Servian, Pézenas, Florensac but loses Mèze and Frontignan. The new seat is thus largely recentered on Sète, a large harbour and former PCF stronghold in the department. Sarko won 53.5% here, and Marine placed second behind him on April 22 with 26.2%. Sète remains a fairly poor and lower middle-class town, but it has an aging population attracted to the coast and the left has lost strength in the area at a fairly rapid pace. The Cap-d'Agde remains an attractive tourist spot, and is very right-wing, but is surprisingly fairly poor in terms of median income. The FN polled best in Servian, Florensac and Agde. The first two cantons have a large population of downtrodden lower middle-class old WWC/petits blancs who are largely compelled to commute long distances to work. The left held this seat for ages, the right won it in 1993 but the PCF mayor of Sète, François Liberti won it in 1997 and managed to survive in 2002 thanks to a triangulaire with the FN. In 2007, however, the UMP mayor of Agde Gilles d'Ettore defeated Liberti, taking 52.7% in the runoff. The PCF lost the city of Sète, which was its last remaining major city in the department, in 2001. Gilles d'Ettore is running for a second term, and is likely the favourite. The left is weak and divided, the FG's candidate is Sébastien Andral, a local councillor in Sète, while the PS' Sébastien Denaja is a total unknown. The FN, represented by its regional leader France Jamet, will likely make the triangulaire. Like in 2002, it could be fatal for the right, but the left's field is quite weak so I think the right can hold on here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
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« Reply #121 on: May 28, 2012, 06:42:05 pm »


8th (Frontignan/Pignan/Montpellier, notional UMP)+: This new seat is a nice salamander which includes part of the canton of Frontignan, the Montpellier suburban canton of Pignan and Montpellier-10. Hollande won 51.7%, taking 56% in Montpellier-10 and 50.6% in Pignan. He also won Frontignan proper, a fairly blue-collar coastal town. Marine took 23.1% in this constituency, including 29% in the canton of Frontignan and 25% in Pignan. The goal here was likely to create a right-wing constituency, but the seat's first member could very well be a left-winger. The FN will likely qualify for the runoff and this could help the PS candidate, Christian Assaf, of which I know nothing about. The UMP candidate is Arnaud Julien, the departmental president of the UMP and 2007 candidate in the second constituency. I want to write more, but I don't know what to say that without going into details which nobody cares about.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

9th (Mauguio/Lunel/Grande-Motte/Montpellier, notional UMP)+: This new seat includes Montpellier-4, a lower middle-class area which is heavily leftie (over 60% for Hollande) and then takes in the canton of Mauguio, including the middle-class suburban city of Mauguio, home to a large Spanish population, the ugly resort town of La Grande-Motte (a UMP stronghold, you guessed it) and the south of the fairly low-income and suburban/exurban canton of Lunel, where the FN is very strong (27%). Overall, Sarko won 51.7% and Marine took a less impressive 22.7%. The UMP candidate in this seat is Stéphan Rossignol, the UMP mayor of La Grande-Motte and regional councillor. His PS opponent is Patrick Vignal, CG for Montpellier-4. The FN's Joseph Castano might qualify for the runoff, but I would not bet heavily on it. In a normal UMP-PS runoff, the UMP would have to be the favourite.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
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« Reply #122 on: May 28, 2012, 07:13:41 pm »

Haute-Loire
2007: 2 UMP

1st (Yssingelais/Mezenc/Le Puy-est, UMP): Sarko won here with only 50.2% of the vote. Historically, this was a right-wing stronghold, because of its rural nature mixed in with clerical Catholicism. Jacques Barrot, a prominent Christian democrat, represented the area between 1967 and 2004, when he was succeeded by another right-winger of national stature, Laurent Wauquiez (UMP). Wauquiez won by the first round in 2007, with 58.1%. The right performs best in rural areas, but in the troubled and marginalized industrial working-class basin of Yssingeaux (including Aurec-sur-Loire and Sainte-Sigolène) in the north, which is increasingly in the exurban influence of St-Etienne, it has faced tough FN competition for quite some time. Marine won over 22% in this constituency, but peaked at 27-28% in the Yssingelais. The left has been growing because of suburban growth in Le Puy-en-Velay's eastern middle-class suburbs. Usually, the left found strength in the secularized working-class town of Retournac (55% for Hollande in the canton) and in some Protestant spillovers in the canton of Tence. In 2012, Hollande did extremely well (58-60%) in Le Puy's eastern suburbia. Laurent Wauquiez faces a surprisingly tough fight. The PS conceded this seat to EELV, which is backing a regionalist Smiley from the POC, Gustave Alirol. However, the dissident candidacy of the PS CG for Aurec-sur-Loire, Guy Vocanson, will likely prove more powerful. The FN's Pierre Cheynet could, in theory, make this a triangulaire but it seems like a remote possibility rather than a likelihood. Wauquiez should win narrowly.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

2nd (Brioude/Le Puy-ouest, UMP): Hollande won 53.2% here, in what has always been the most left-wing constituency in the formerly right-wing stronghold of Haute-Loire. The left's base has always been the secularized working-class town of Brioude and the Brivadois mining basin (Auzon). Hollande won 60% in Brioude proper and 66% in the canton of Auzon. The left's influence has also been quite strong in the Allier valley (Paulhaguet). Again, Le Puy - here the western suburbs - has seen major left-wing gains in recent years, as the outskirts turn into suburbs attractive for middle-class families and the like, less in touch with the conservative traditions of the Velay. The right remains dominant in the Catholic highlands of the Margeride. This seat has usually leaned to the right. It elected a Socialist in... 1967 (and a 1976 by-election) but since 1978 it has been held by the UDF-UMP Jean Proriol. He won 52.6% in 1997 and 53.6% in 2007. He is retiring this year. The UMP candidate is Jean-Pierre Vigier, a local mayor, backed by the UMP CG for Solignac-sur-Loire. The PS' André Chapaveire is a regional councillor, his suppleant is the PS CG for Le Puy-nord. The left stands an historic chance at winning this seat, held only twice since 1958, both for very short period of times.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
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« Reply #123 on: May 28, 2012, 07:28:48 pm »
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That's why I'm an utterly anti-democratic man Grin

Anyway, Val-de-Marne 6th will be very hard fought.

Really, Loire and Ardennes: you don't lose your time, because you'll enjoy almost every constituency.
At least, there is more fun for you.



Hérault... This is where your work is priceless.
I agree on almost everything: I think that in the 6th and 7th, the right may well be in the runoff only against the FN and so will win. In the 4th, Pietrasanta alone can't harm the PS candidate. In the 8th, the PS will win in a triangulaire.
(BTW, for the moment -but that's just a feeling-, I don't find that there are SO many "triangulaires de la mort" for the UMP: after all, Marleix may well have better worked than I thought Grin)

I disagree with you on the 1st, with another "triangulaire fatale" for the UMP (and Roumégas is stronger than the low name-recognition PS candidate), and on the 9th, again a PS win in a triangulaire
(oh, just as I've said that, 3 "bad" triangulaires Sad)

These departments (Gard, Hérault) are really socially and humanly awful, but electorally fascinating.

I'm OK for Haute-Loire.

So, I see you are marching on Loire with all your troops Wink
« Last Edit: May 28, 2012, 07:32:30 pm by big bad fab »Logged

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« Reply #124 on: May 29, 2012, 09:13:58 am »
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You don't have to feel constrained to do your work in a certain way. It's your work and you are free to do it as you prefer. But whatever you might say, I think it's still very interesting this way.

Anyways...



Safe left : 60
Left favored : 6
Lean left : 9
Left : 75

Tossup - left edge : 14
Pure tossup : 8
Tossup - right edge : 16
Tossup : 38

Lean right : 20
Right favored : 13
Safe right : 15
Right : 48

2007 : Left 69 / Right 96.

LOL, I can't believe Lozère could have a 100% left-wing parliamentary delegation. Cheesy
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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