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« Reply #125 on: May 29, 2012, 04:05:54 pm »

Loire
2007: 5 UMP, 2 PS, 1 NC
 
1st (Saint-Étienne nord, PS): This seat remains unchanged. Hollande won 56.2% here. This seat includes some poorer and old working-class areas in Saint-Étienne, including the ZUS of Montreynaud in the north of the city or the old miners neighborhood of Outre-Furans. Outside city limits, it includes the old mining villages of Roche-la-Molière, Saint-Genest-Lerpt, Villars or Saint-Jean Bonnefonds. The left retains an edge in some of these cities, but old working-class traditions have started being replaced by white-collar suburban growth. Saint-Étienne is a working-class city, but has never been a solidly left-wing stronghold. It has tended to shift to the left in recent years, Hollande won about 59% in the city. The centrist Christian democratic tradition used to be strong here, represented by the likes of Michel Durafour. Between 1958 and 2007, with the exception of 1981 and 1997, this seat was held by various centrist or UDF deputies. In 1997, the UDF fell victim to a triangulaire with the FN, allowing the PS to win this seat. In 2002, the UDF’s Gilles Artigues reclaimed this seat for the right in a narrow race. However, in 2007, having joined Bayrou’s MoDem, Artigues lost by the first round, placing third with 20.8%. His votes, however, did not help the UMP’s case. In the runoff, the PS’ Régis Juanico won with 52.1%. Juanico faces a rematch with Artigues this year, but this year Artigues benefits from the official endorsement of the UMP. There is some resentment against Artigues in the UMP because, despite his recent return to right-wing roots, in 2008 his candidacy in the local elections in the city led to the defeat of the UMP incumbent, Michel Thiollière. Artigues won the canton of Saint-Étienne-NE-2 in 2008 from the PCF, and his support is crucial for the UMP in the general council. Thiollière, bitter at 2008, is backing a right-wing dissident, Éric Berlivet (CNIP). Artigues is, like Rodolphe Thomas in the Calvados, a strong candidate for the centre-right in a left-leaning seat, but the seat is too left-leaning for him to actually win. Marine won 19.5% here, a strong result but likely not enough to guarantee the FN a spot in a 3-way runoff. The PS should hold on here, without sweating too much.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured
 
2nd (Saint-Étienne sud, PS)*: Gains Saint-Étienne-SO-2. Hollande won this entirely stéphanois seat with 57.5%, his best result in the department. This constituency includes some old working-class areas of the city, including former mining neighborhoods in the old faubourgs. Hollande broke 60% in two cantons here. Again, however, this region – despite being traditionally proletarian – has never really been a left-wing stronghold. The second was the Gaullist’ Lucien Neuwirth’s seat between 1958 and 1981. 1981 and 2007 are the only two elections in which the seat has returned a PS member. In 1997, the RPR survived a difficult triangulaire with the FN and won somewhat comfortably in 2002. However, in 2007, longtime UMP incumbent Christian Cabal fell victim to the PS’ Jean-Louis Gagnaire. The PS won over 54% in the runoff. Gagnaire should win a second term easily. The UMP’s candidate is a nobody and there is nobody else of local relevance standing here. Marine won only 17.5% or so here, so the FN, unlike in 1997, will not make the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Saint-Chamond/Vallée du Gier, NC): This seat too is left unchanged. The main cities here are Saint-Chamond and Rive-de-Gier in the Gier valley. The Gier valley has historically been a very industrial areas, with a mix of mining throughout the valley but also a big metallurgical/ironworks industry in Saint-Chamond and Rive-de-Gier. The latter remains a very working-class city to this day and is quite economically deprived. Saint-Chamond and Grand-Croix. On the other hand, the canton of Saint-Héand, lying to the north of the stéphanois metropolis, is an affluent middle-class suburb of Saint-Étienne. In political terms, this seat returned only one Socialist since 1958, in 1981. The city of Saint-Chamond, despite its very proletarian nature, was the stronghold of the independents and their leader, Antoine Pinay, who was mayor of the city between 1929 and 1977. Rive-de-Gier is usually more left-wing, having been held by the PCF between 1977 and 1995 but by the right since then. Hollande, however, won 50.1% here, winning the valley cantons (but losing big in Saint-Héand). He actually won Saint-Chamond proper with 54%, Grand-Croix with 59% and Rive-de-Gier with 63%. Marine won 22.8% here, a strong but not exceptional showing, doing best in the non-urban parts of the valley but still taking 23.5% in Saint-Chamond. The seat has been held since 1988 by the UDF-NC’s François Rochebloine, who survived a 1997 triangulaire by over 10 points and won by about 20 points in the 2007 runoff. He is running again but he is in a very precarious position. Despite being backed by the UMP, he is the underdog in a ‘right-wing primary’ against Hervé Reynaud, CG for Saint-Chamond-Nord since 2011 – when he defeated Rochebloine himself, in office since 1989 in that canton, in the cantonal elections. His suppléant is the mayor of Rive-de-Gier. Reynaud is the favourite on the right, but perhaps not overall. The PS has a solid chance with Philippe Kizirian, the new PS mayor of Saint-Chamond since 2008, who benefits from EELV’s support.  With the FN holding a chance to make the runoff, the right divided, it is quite possible that the PS will win here. A triangulaire would likely be fatal for the right, but a traditional PS-right runoff would be more closely divided.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
4th (Firminy/Vallée de l’Ondaine, PCD-UMP)*: Loses the leftie stronghold of Saint-Étienne-SO-2, but gains Saint-Bonnet-le-Château, Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert and Saint-Jean-Soleymieux. Most of the constituency is in the suburban or exurban influence of Saint-Étienne and its area. Hollande won 50.9% here, despite a redistricting clearly aimed at favouring the right. The core left-wing strongholds here are Firminy and Le Chambon-Feuguerolles. These two cantons are the old core of Loire mining basin, with the cities of Firminy, La Ricamarie and Le Chambon-Feuguerolles. Hollande won 58% in the canton of Firminy and 61% in the canton of Chambon-Feuguerolles, which, complemented by 55% in Saint-Jean-Soleymieux and 51% in Bourg-Argental, explain his victory here. In general, the other suburban areas (Saint-Genest-Mailfaux, Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert) – more affluent – lean to the right pretty strongly (except from small textile towns). The addition of Saint-Bonnet-le-Château and Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert really shore up the right, Hollande would have won the old constituency by a solid margin. The PCF has traditionally been strong in the cantons of Firminy and Chambon-Feuguerolles. The PCF held Firminy between 1971 and 2001 and again since 2008. La Ricamarie also has a PCF mayor. The old constituency  usually alternated between right and PCF. The PCF won in 1962, 1972, 1981, 1988 and 1997. In 1997, the PCF benefited from a triangulaire with the FN to win the seat. Since 2002, however, the seat has been held by Dino Cinieri, a member of the PCD. He won narrowly in 2002 and again in 2007 (51.6% against the PS, PCF at 12.9%). In 2008, Cinieri, mayor of Firminy between 2001 and 2008, lost his seat to the PCF’s Marc Petit. Cinieri can benefit from new boundaries, but he is still in a tough spot. The PS took the stupid decision to endorse EELV here, so it likely means that Christian Faverjon, the PCF mayor of Unieux, will be the main leftie candidate. Marine won 24% here and the FN can perhaps make the runoff, like in 1997. Another daring call (if only because I have a weird kind of psephological appreciation for seeing old PCF strongholds return to their old roots…)
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
5th (Roanne, UMP)*: Loses Saint-Germain-Laval but gains Charlieu, Belmont-de-la-Loire, Perreux and Saint-Symphorien-de-Lay. The new fifth basically covers the whole north of the department, centered on the old textile and blue-collar town of Roanne. Sarko won 51.5% here, losing to Hollande in both cantons of Roanne and the city proper, but generally prevailing the rural/suburban cantons. There used to be a strong left-wing tradition, still kicking in local elections, in Charlieu or La Pacaudière, but these fairly poor small-town areas, where the FN does pretty well (21.3% overall in the constituency for Marine), have shifted to the right. Politically, the PS used to be fairly strong if not dominant here. Between 1977 and 2001, Roanne was ruled by Jean Auroux, a PS cabinet minister. The PS held the seat between 1978 and 1993, when the UDF’s Yves Nicolin won this seat and has held it since. In 2007, he won very narrowly with 50.7% against Laure Deroche, who in 2008 toppled Nicolin from Roanne city hall. This year is another contest between Deroche and Nicolin, in which the FN might – but probably won’t – be the referee. Deroche is boosted by her local base since 2008 as mayor of Roanne, but the redistricting here has generally favoured the right as the weight of Roanne has become less important. There is an AC candidacy backed by the CNIP which might hurt the right a bit. I don’t know where to place this exactly without having my ear on the ground, but…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

6th (Montbrison/Feurs/Monts du Forez, UMP)*: Loses Charlieu, Belmont-de-la-Loire, Perreux and Saint-Symphorien-de-Lay, gains Saint-Germain-Laval, Noiretable, Boen, Saint-Georges-en-Couzan and Montbrison. Feurs and Montbrison are the two main towns here. Sarko won 54.9%, his best in the department. Indeed, except for what I think is a working-class basin around Boen and Noirétable, this is a predominantly rural and small-town type of constituency, with a strong clerical Catholic tradition and Christian democratic political orientation. Saint-Galmier, Feurs, Montbrison and Chazelles-sur-Lyon are fairly affluent cantons, Saint-Galmier being in the suburban influence of Saint-Étienne. These areas have never elected a left-wing deputy since 1958, and 2012 probably won’t be the year. The PS has a good candidate in Liliane Faure, the new CG/mayor of Montbrison, but the UMP incumbent, Paul Salen (CG for Saint-Galmier. The race might be close, and the FN – 22% for Marine – could play a role (but I don’t think they’ll make the runoff), but in the end I guess the right will pull through.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #126 on: May 29, 2012, 04:10:18 pm »

Ardennes
2007: 2 UMP, 1 PS
 
1st (Charleville sud/Rethel, UMP): Sarko won about 51% in this seat. But this seat, like the third, has a stark political divide between rural and urban. This seat takes in part of Charleville-Mézières, a poor working-class town and traditional PS stronghold. It also includes the cantons of Villers-Semeuse and Flize. Hollande won 63% in the canton of Mézières Est, which includes a big ZUS, and 55% in Villers-Semeuse (the town proper is home to an auto factory) and 52% in Flize (Nouvion-sur-Meuse is a working-class town). He also won in Signy-le-Petit, a small industrial canton on the border with the Aisne. On the other hand, the rest of the constituency – rural, largely poor (except for Rethel and some cantons like Juniville on the border with the Marne, fairly affluent and integrated with Reims) and small townish, is solidly conservative. Sarko won less than 55% in only two ‘rural’ cantons (Rethel, which isn’t rural, and Signy-l’Abbaye). Since 1981, this seat has been a bellwether, electing Socialists in 81, 88 and 97 but right-wingers in 93, 02 and 07. In 1997, Claudine Ledoux, who became the PS mayor of Charleville in 2001, won thanks to a triangulaire with the FN but was defeated by the UMP’s Bérengère Poletti in 2002 and again in 2007 (Poletti won 54% in 2002, and 59.5% in 2007). This year’s rematch opposes Poletti, who was defeated by Ledoux in her bid to win the longtime PS stronghold of Charleville in 2008, and Ledoux. Ledoux originally wanted to run in the second, but when the PS candidate here was declared ineligible, she was compelled to run here. The race will be close, and the FN – strong in this marginalized, rural and declining region (24.7% for Marine) will likely make the runoff, and could, as in 1997, ruin matters for the right. Given the triangulaire factor and the bellwether political history…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
2nd (Charleville nord/Vallée de la Meuse, PS): This seat, which gave 56.8% to Hollande, is a left-wing stronghold.  It includes part of Charleville, its more affluent suburbs (right-leaning), some rural areas (right-leaning) but above all declining industrial areas in the Meuse valley. The towns of Bogny, Monthermé, Revin, Givet or Vireux-Molhain were driven by metallurgy, while there was a big slate mining industry in Fumay. Hollande won 64.5% in the canton of Nouzonville, 61.5% in Monthermé, 65.6% in Revel, 59% in Fumay and 59.6% in Givet. Between 1967 and today, the right won this seat once – in 1993. The PCF has held this seat, but it is not as powerful as the PS. Since 1997, it has been held by Philippe Vuilque, the PS mayor of Revin. He won 53.2% in 2002 and 51.5% in 2007. This should be a safe leftie seat, but the contest is quite interesting this year.  Vuilque, a fairly useless deputy who is contested within his own party, was defeated in the PS internal primary but is running as a dissident. The PS candidate is Christophe Léonard, the PS CG for Charleville-Centre. The UMP, which had improved on its 2002 result in 2007, is not to be counted out entirely. Its candidate, Boris Ravignon, defeated in 2007, UMP CG for Charleville-La Houillère is a strong candidate. While the UMP winning this seat would be a monumental upset and remains quite unlikely (especially so if the FN qualifies, Marine won 24.2% but abstention is high here, so it is likely to be shut out), he likely hopes to benefit from the left’s division.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left (Vuilque?) favoured
 
3rd (Sedan, UMP): Hollande won 50.2%, thanks almost entirely to his domination in the industrial basin of Sedan, which has always been the left’s main bastion in this constituency (alongside the small town of Vouziers). On the other hand, Sarkozy remained by far the strongest in the rural areas of this constituency, a continuation of the very conservative champenois countryside in the Marne (though certainly not as comparatively wealthy). The former PS mayor of Sedan, Jean-Paul Bachy, now president of the CR, won this seat in 1988 but following his defeat in 1993 the left has yet to regain this seat, which it had previously won in 1967 (with the PSU) and in 1981. Since 1995, it has been held by Jean-Luc Warsmann, mayor of Douzy and unsuccessful UMP candidate in the 2010 regionals. He won reelection by the first round in 2002 and 2007. In 2007, he took 57.5% against 24.7% for Bachy in the first round. Though the FN – Marine won 24.6% here – could make the runoff, Warsmann is safe. The PS nominated some nobody after neither Bachy nor the PS mayor of Sedan wanted to run.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #127 on: May 29, 2012, 05:26:21 pm »
Ignore

Thanks, Hash. THESE are the good departments Wink

Wasn't Loire fascinating, as often ?

Well, I've hesitated a lot for the 4th, but I think (hope ?) that an evenly divided left (also with a PRG who isn't entirely a nobody) might not be in the runoff Tongue or that it might be a classical duel. But, of course, in case of a triangulaire, Cinieri is dead.

In the 3rd, I was tempted to say "gain for the left" but, after all, Rochebloine seems unbeatable since 1997 Tongue With the FN out, he'll be able to win.

In the 5th, perhaps I'm weighting too much the local force of the PS mayor of Roanne, but it's still something.

So, you may be right and I've completely mixed up the results. We'll see.

In the Ardennes, I wouldn't say Warsmann is "safe", but he'll probably prevail in the end, as he is well entrenched.
In the 2nd, Vuilque is a much stronger candidate for the left, sure.
I'm relaxed we agree on Ardennes: at least, I won't be wrong on everything Cheesy



In the end, I'd be interested in your opinion on the "best" department, I mean the one with the most difficult tossups to predict: Loire, Bouches-du-Rhône, Gard, Hérault are high for the moment.

Yonne, Essonne, Vaucluse, Vosges may be high too, after all.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2012, 05:28:07 pm by big bad fab »Logged

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« Reply #128 on: May 29, 2012, 05:31:04 pm »

Aisne
2007: 2 PS, 2 UMP, 1 DVG
 
1st (Laon, DVG): Hollande won 54.9% here, boosted by a nearly 58% result in Laon, a fairly working-class city which is one of the main cities in the Aisne and certainly the big town in this constituency. Otherwise, most of the constituency lives under the influence of Laon, or, in the canton of Neufchatel-sur-Aisne, Reims. Once again, except for some middle-class suburban communes outside Laon or near Reims, this is a poor, economically and demographically declining region. The FN does fairly well here, especially outside of Laon. Marine won 25% here, a good second behind Hollande and ahead of Sarko (23.5%). Traditionally a proletarian region, the left has usually had the upper hand in this region. Laon has nonetheless elected right-wing mayors since 1989. Save for 1993, the left has held this seat since 1973. Since 1988, again with the exception of 1993, the deputy here has been René Dosière (PS), who won won his seat back easily in 1997 and held on without too much trouble in 2002 and 2007. Dosière is a well-known whistleblower whose big issue is public finances and especially spending by the President. In 2007, Dosière had lost the PS nomination to Fawaz Karimet, but he defeated the official PS candidate in the first round (25.1% vs 20.2%) and soundly defeated the right in the runoff. Dosière, a popular incumbent, was once again denied the PS nomination this year – because he refused to acquiesce to the PS’ choice of a suppléant. He is thus running, once again, as a dissident of sorts against Karimet, CG for Laon-Nord who is again the official PS candidate. But it appears as if Dosière and the PS agreed to this matter of things so that he could retain an image of political independence and retain credibility in his watchdog role. He is backed unofficially by a lot of Socialists, officially by the PRG. The UMP is backing some NC local councillor in Laon, and the FN will likely make it to the runoff – either in a duel against Dosière or in a three-way fight with the UMP included. Dosière will probably win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Saint-Quentin/Vermandois, UMP): Hollande won 52.6% here. The seat is centered on the industrial basin of Saint-Quentin, which is a traditionally blue-collar city in which Hollande won 54%. The city’s suburbs are also fairly middle-class and a bit more affluent than the rest of the department. It is still an economically depressed and demographically stagnant region, especially up north in the canton of Le Catelet. But the Saint-Quentinois agglomeration’s dominance in this constituency makes it a bit more ‘privileged’ if you wish than the other constituencies in this department. Sarko placed second behind Hollande, Marine won a fairly ‘poor’ third place by local standards with 24.9%, and didn’t do great in Saint-Quentin and its inner suburbs. The city of Saint-Quentin has alternated between PCF and Gaullists since 1977, since 1995 it has been held by the right, in the person of Senator Pierre André and now in the person of Xavier Bertrand, former cabinet minister and a political of national renown. The PCF held this seat between 1973 and 1993, and the PS won it in 1997 (the PCF placed a poor third). In 2002, Xavier Bertrand defeated PS incumbent Odette Grzegrzulka with 57% in the runoff. Having built a national image (which is generally positive for him), a local network; he won by the first round in 2007 with 53.3%. His list easily won the 2008 local elections in Saint-Quentin. Bertrand definitely has a personal vote, and this should help him survive this tough spell. The PS candidate, Anne Ferreira, a regional councillor, doesn't seem to measure up, and the FN, while it could probably make a triangulaire, won't be enough to kill the UMP here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
3rd (Thiérache, PS^): Hollande won 53.1% in this constituency, which covers about all of the Thiérache region in the northeast of the department. This is a poor and proletarian region, half-rural (not really rural but more a bastard region of small towns with old working-class populations who are forced to work in bigger towns…) and small townish around the small industrial centres of Hirson, Vervins, Guise, Marles or Bohain-en-Vermandois. It is an economically depressed, poor and demographically declining region.The Thiérache is a bocage region, of dispersed habitat, known for its individualism and agrarian radicalism. Traditionally, this has been a left-wing stronghold, because of its solidly working-class and proletarian background. The left remains dominant in the small industrial centres, notably Hirson or Guise. The socio-economic makeup of the region, however, has made it perfect territory for the FN. Marine Le Pen came out on top over Hollande with 27.9%, and broke 30% in a few cantons. The PS has held this seat since 1967, with Maurice Brugnon between 1967 and 1981, and with Jean-Pierre Balligand since 1981. He was one of the few PS survivors of 1993, and won easily in the last three elections – though his 53% in 2007 was very weak… He is retiring this year, and the PS’ Jean-Louis Bricout, mayor of Bohain-en-Vermandois, is the favourite to succeed him. The UMP is aligning Frédéric Meura, the same candidate as in 2007, who is the CG for La Capelle. However, Sarko placed third here, and there’s a good risk that the runoff could end up being a PS-FN affair. The PS should hold on easily.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Soissons/Tergnier, PG^): Hollande won here with 53.6%, propelled in large part by a huge win in the cite cheminote of Tergnier (66.6%), but also by a narrower win in the old working-class town of Chauny (canton: 53%). Sarko won Soissons and did fairly well in its more middle-class suburbs. This is an economically depressed and somewhat marginalized region, which is increasingly drawn to larger regional and national urban centres, though not as much as the fifth. The left has held this seat since 1973, with the exception of 1993. In 1997, Jacques Desallangre, the chevènementiste mayor of Tergnier, easily gained this seat from the right after having outpaced the PS in the first round. In 2002, having left the MDC, he won with 54.6%, becoming the sole chevènementiste to win reelection. In 2007, he won with 54.6% again. In both 2002 and 2007, he defeated PS candidates in the first round. In 2007, the PS won 16.2% against his 26.2%. The FN still won 8.3% in 2007, and Marine won all of 26.4% in this constituency. Desallangre, who later joined the PG, is retiring this year. The result has been a very amusing sh**tfest of lefties vying for the seat. Desallangre is backing his assistant Frédéric Alliot, a PG dissident who has received the PRG's support (I think the PRG, for some reason, had backed Desallangre in 2007). Alliot is a local councillor in Soissons. On the other hand, the FG's candidate is Jean-Luc Lanouilh, the PCF CG for Chauny whose suppleant is the PCF CG for Soissons-Sud. The PS, finally, is supporting Marie-Françoise Bechtel, a high ranking member of the MRC. The left has three candidates (+ a Greenie, and the Trot jokers), while the right seems to be backing Charles-Edouard Law de Lauriston, a PRV local mayor. The FN's Evelyne Ruelle will probably make the runoff in a form or another, but it could be hurt by low turnout and the unpredictable nature of this mess. A mess indeed. The left's division into three candidates of fairly equal strength, imo, means that there's an outside chance - not big but not insignificant either - that it could be eliminated from the runoff altogether, and result in a fluke UMP-FN runoff which the right would win (in a seat held by the left!). A triangulaire with the UMP, FN and the top leftie is perhaps more likely; or maybe a leftie-FN runoff. After all, Sarko won only 22.7% here, his lowest result in the Aisne, and the FN vote here certainly isn't going to vote UMP en masse. I think the 'left' pulls it out, but which one of three wins is up for grabs. Alliot could potentially be strong in Tergnier and Soisson, while the FG prevails in Chauny. I don't know how strong of a candidate the MRC's Bechtel is. Fun times ahead!
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left

5th (Château-Thierry/Tardenois/Brie, UMP): This seat covers the far south of the department, far more integrated in the Parisian basin than in "la Picardie profonde". Indeed, a lot of the population here commutes long distances to work in Ile-de-France/Paris, which makes this region an extension of the neighboring "periurbain lointain" found in eastern Seine-et-Marne. This is also a "periurbain subi" - lower middle-classes, not too affluent, lots of lower-level private sector employees forced out of the big city, by a mish-mash of feelings about immigration/criminality but above all property prices. Prime FN territory. Marine won 27.5%, with Sarko in second place (25.3%). Sarko won 51.7% in the runoff. He won the exurban territory, but lost decisively (56-44) in Château-Thierry, more industrial and left-leaning. This region has usually been the most right-leaning of the Aisne, in the past due to the dominance of large agricultural properties. Between 1958 and 1981 and again 1988 and 1994, this seat was held by André Rossi, the right-wing Radical former mayor of Château-Thierry. The left won it only once, in 1981. In 1997, Renaud Dutreil narrowly defeated Dominique Jourdain, the PS mayor of Château-Thierry in a triangulaire. In 2007, the UMP's Isabelle Vasseur won with 54% in the runoff against Jourdain. This year, Vasseur faces tough competition not only from the FN, which will certainly make the runoff, but also from the left. But the left is divided. The PS is backing Jacques Krabal, the PRG mayor/CG for Château-Thierry since 2008, but his candidacy is not well received by the local PS. Dominique Jourdain, who ran for the PS in every election except 2002, is running again, for EELV. Jourdain had lost the 2008 local elections to Krabal. I don't know what impact the left's division will have on matters here, especially in the runoff. There's an outside chance that, like in 2002, the left finds itself shut out of the runoff - Hollande placed third here on April 22. But there's also a chance that a triangulaire with the left could prove fatal for the right.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #129 on: May 29, 2012, 05:46:20 pm »

Plan of attack:

I'll complete all/most of Fab's interesting departments and others of personal interest to me - notably the big ones (Nord, Rhone, all of IDF time permitting). That should take up about most of the remaining days. Oise is next on the list, then I'll try to get a headstart on IDF (covering frontiste sh**tholes is getting tedious and depressing)

On Saturday June 9, I'll post a complete map with my "calls" for all constituencies, including those which won't have write ups. It's unfortunate I won't do all departments, but life sucks.
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #130 on: May 29, 2012, 05:57:23 pm »
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If I may, Meurthe-et-Moselle and Moselle are really interesting, especially with your good hindsights on the results of Marleix' epic scissors.

And Vosges are funnier than I initially thought (while Drôme and Pyrenees-Atlantiques aren't so interesting).

The rest of my list is OK Smiley
(deeply sorry for all these capricious changes, but my spontaneous guts are a bit modified when I try to scan the real field, as I'm doing myself each evening, with less brio than you Wink

And if I may, too, as you're interested in IdF, Paris, Yvelines and Seine-Saint-Denis are boring as hell in terms of uncertain "swingability" (sure, 1 or 2 interesting duels inside the left in 93, but that's all).

In Hauts-de-Seine and Val-de-Marne, it's just about 2 or 3 seats in each, the rest is obvious (but I acknowledge these 2 or 3 are very, very funny).
So, don't take too time on IdF, except on Val-d'Oise, Essonne and Seine-et-Marne (especially the latter 2, which are really hard).
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« Reply #131 on: May 29, 2012, 07:05:17 pm »
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Aisne 4th: Alliot has a real bonus, I think, over Bechtel (local vs. technocrat)
Aisne 5th: a triangulaire resulting in a gain for the left (Krabal), I think.

I've just looked at Rhône: boârf... a bit boring...

Will Val-de-Marne 6th be a big, big surprise ? Fortunately for the right, the left is badly divided. But, well, Hollande did quite well there. That'd be amazing. Poor Vivien Grin

Vaucluse 4th: ouch...!!!
Can't we even have a PS win in a triangulaire with FN and Bompard or even a quadrangulaire (no, I just dream a bit Grin)
Why don't these stupid medias poll this constituency, rather than Bayrou's one or Guéant's one ?!?

I wanted to finish tonight, but I must sleep a bit:


And I won't sleep well, as you've made me very doubtful about Loire 4th and 5th Tongue
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« Reply #132 on: May 29, 2012, 09:29:18 pm »
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How many seats will get each party in that case? Looking at map it seems that FDG and DVG will improve results only slightly.
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« Reply #133 on: May 29, 2012, 09:42:09 pm »

For my own pleasure, and to take up all of my "free time"

Corse-du-Sud

1st (Ajaccio/Vallée de la Gravona, CSD-DVG): This seat covers Ajaccio, except for Ajaccio-6, and the rural areas inland, including the Vallée de la Gravona and the Gulf of Porto. It is fairly stupid to use presidential election results to predict any other elections on the island, but Sarko won 55.4% here. In the first round, Le Pen took 25.9% here, taking over 30% in the lower-income cantons in downtown Ajaccio but also the fairly nationalist areas inland (Celavo-Mezzana, Cruzini-Cinarca, 48.8% and 48.7% for the 2 nationalist lists in 2010). The nationalist vote is the main reason why those who use presidential results to predict other elections on the island are, to put it bluntly, idiots. Since 2002, this seat has been held by Simon Renucci, leader of the 'Corse social democrate' centre-left party and a former close ally of Lionel Jospin. Renucci. Between 1988 and 2002, the seat had been held by the liberal José Rossi, who was president of the CG and later president of the assembly. He had staged an ephemeral alliance with Marc Marcangeli, the Bonapartist mayor of Ajaccio between 1994 and 2002, which broke up in 2000 and was patched up in 2002. Rossi won in 1997, with 52.2% in the runoff against Renucci. In 2002, however, countercyclical with the rest of the country (obviously, it's Corsica), Renucci defeated Rossi with 57.1% in the runoff. In 2001, Renucci defeated Marcangeli in Ajaccio, ending a Bonapartist (yes, in 2001!) stranglehold on local politics since the 1870s. In 2007, Renucci won by a narrower margin, with 54.3% in the runoff. In 2008, Renucci easily won a second term as mayor over a very divided local right. He is running again this year, facing Laurent Marcangeli, UMP CG for Ajaccio-1 who is probably the son of the former DVD-Bonapartist mayor. Paul-Antoine Luciani, the perennial candidate of the PCF here, is running again, having seen his votes shrink from about 13% to 5.5% between 1997 and 2007. Renucci should win easily, but this being Corsica, I guess, nothing is ever safe.
ETA: indeed, Corsica is being Corsican. A poll shows Marcangeli beating Renucci. I'll lower the ratings down.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge

2nd (Porto-Vecchio/Sartène/Bonifacio, UMP): This seat includes Porto-Vecchio, Bonifacio, Sartène, Propriano, Zicavo and Baselicata, among others. Sarko won 59.5% here, winning every major city, including 61% in Porto-Vecchio. The town of Porto-Vecchio has dominated politically in this seat, or, rather, the Rocca Serra dynasty has dominated. Indeed, the town of Porto-Vecchio has, since 1803, been the dynastic stronghold of the right-wing Rocca Serra clan. Between 1922 and 1943, the town was ruled by Camille de Rocca Serra, a right-wing deputy during the Third Republic. Between 1950 and 1997 it was the stronghold of Jean-Paul de Rocca Serra, RPR deputy for this constituency between 1962 and 1998. His son, Camille de Rocca Serra, governed the town between 1997 and 2005 and is currently a local councillor in the governing municipal majority. In 1993, the runoff here opposed Jean-Paul to his distant cousin Denis de Rocca-Serra. In 1997, Jean-Paul won a triangulaire against the 'cuz Denis and Dominique Bucchini, the PCF mayor of Sartène and notable opponent of political violence and enemy of the nationalists. JP won 34.9% against 33.3% for Denis and 31.8% for Bucchini. In 2002, Camille, the son, came out on top of a divided first round, with only 17% against 15.5% for a former ally of Denis, 15.3% for the UMP incumbent (Roland Francisci, deputy since JP died in 1998), 13.1% for Bucchini and 10.3% for Jérôme Polverini. Camille won 57.5% in the runoff. In 2007, he won 51% in the first round against 14.5% for Jean-Christophe Angelini, a moderate nationalist, and 13% for Bucchini. Since then, things have changed. Rocca Serra was defeated in the 2010 regionals, and in his own town of Porto-Vecchio, Angelini's moderate nationalists (Femu a Corsica) came out on top ahead of the Rocca Serrian UMP. In the constituency as a whole, he took 33.8% against 26.9% for the Simeoni-Angelini tandem and 28.5% for Giacobbi's left-wing alliance. In 2011, Angelini defeated Camille in the race for the canton of Porto-Vecchio, taking about 53% in the runoff. This year's race will be one that I will be watching very closely. Camille de Rocca-Serra faces Jean-Christophe Angelini, the local leader of the moderate nationalists (Femu a Corsica), regional councillor and of course CG. The left is divided between Dominique Bucchini, who is now president of the assembly of Corsica, and Paul-Marie Bartoli, the mayor of Propriano who is backed by the PS, the PRG and CSD. The radical nationalists, Corsica Libera, are fairly weak here, so Paul Quastana shouldn't trouble Angelini much. A poll out a few months ago showed Angelini winning a three-way runoff against Bucchini and Rocca Serra. I don't know how strong Angelini can do outside of Porto-Vecchio, where he can likely dominate. But Bucchini seems quite bent on defeating the UMP and has good relations at a personal level with Angelini, and the left usually tends to vote for the moderate nationalists over the UMP. Angelini winning would compensate for about any other bad result in the rest of the country.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

Moselle and Meurthe-et-Moselle do sound like good ideas, so I'll go there tomorrow.
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« Reply #134 on: May 30, 2012, 02:37:20 am »
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Thank you for 54 and 57 Smiley
They are better than Oise, which will be a very important swinging departement, like Somme or... Meuse maybe, but which isn't so "fun" to predict, as I feel every race is quite clear (even the 7th).

Corse-du-Sud: well, I have no clue and I obviously agree with you. In the 2nd, I especially don't know who will be on top of the left in the 1st round and will fight the UMP in the runoff. That may change the final result a lot.
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« Reply #135 on: May 30, 2012, 05:01:01 am »
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Plan of attack:

I'll complete all/most of Fab's interesting departments and others of personal interest to me - notably the big ones (Nord, Rhone, all of IDF time permitting). That should take up about most of the remaining days. Oise is next on the list, then I'll try to get a headstart on IDF (covering frontiste sh**tholes is getting tedious and depressing)

On Saturday June 9, I'll post a complete map with my "calls" for all constituencies, including those which won't have write ups. It's unfortunate I won't do all departments, but life sucks.

So I don't need to update the map anymore ?
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« Reply #136 on: May 30, 2012, 07:06:40 am »
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Sorry, I'm almost trolling, but, trying to be more focused, here is an updated list of interest if you want to have some fun in "working on them":

- Essonne, Val d'Oise, Seine-et-Marne in IdF

- Yonne, Vaucluse, Vosges, Lot-et-Garonne, Nord, Français à l'étranger (well, there may be huge surprises here, I think) otherwise (with Cher and Meuse as usual suspects)
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« Reply #137 on: May 30, 2012, 03:52:46 pm »

Just as I posted that on Corse-du-Sud, a poll comes out which shows Marcangeli beating Renucci with 51.5% in the runoff. Corsica would be so.... Corsican if it had the UMP seat go to the left/regionalists and the leftie seat go to the right Smiley

That being said, every election since 1997 (if not 1988 or 1993) has had one or more seat going against the tide: left > right in 1997, right > left in 2002, left > right in 2007. There's gotta be one of those this year.
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« Reply #138 on: May 30, 2012, 03:55:59 pm »

Meurthe-et-Moselle
2007: 4 UMP, 3 PS
 
1st (Nancy/Saint-Max/Malzéville, PRV-UMP)*: This seat gains Saint-Max and Seichamps. It takes in the bulk of Nancy, save for the canton of Nancy-ouest, and its western suburbs (Malzéville, Saint-Max, Seichamps etc). Hollande won 53.7% here, and the trend is to the left. Nancy, a fairly bourgeois white-collar city, has traditionally been a right-wing city – it has been governed by the right since 1945 at least – but it is shifting to the left quite dramatically. Hollande won 55% in the city, and even more in the part of the city included here given that he won the three urban cantons included in this seat with anywhere between 56% and 60% (in the canton including the ZUS of the Haut-du-Lièvre, where Nadine Morano is from…). Saint-Max and Malzéville proper are middle-class suburbs, increasingly attractive for young families, while the rest of the canton includes politically marginally but otherwise quite affluent residential suburbs. Boosted by the old centre-right bastion of Nancy, the right has historically been dominant in the old first. The left won this seat only once, in 1997. That year, the PS defeated the longtime UDF incumbent, André Rossinot, mayor of Nancy, with a very narrow 127 vote victory. In 2002, Rossinot’s dauphin, the Radical Laurent Hénart won back the seat with 54.3% in the runoff, in 2007 he won reelection with a tiny 50.8%. Marleix’s scissors did not turn to the right’s advantage in this constituency, and Hénart is quite weakened. He faces the PS’ Chaynesse Khirouni, a local councillor in Nancy. Marine won only 15.3% here and the FN will not be a significant presence. In a straight left-right runoff, Hénart, while not a bad candidate or incumbent, finds himself as the underdog.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
                                                                                     
2nd (Nancy/Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy/Laxou, PS)*: Gains Laxou and Nancy-Ouest, loses Saint-Max, Seichamps, Tomblaine and Arracourt. This constituency includes the canton of Nancy-Ouest, a bourgeois canton which was the city’s only canton to vote for Sarko (with 51%), the affluent suburban canton of Laxou, the poor working-class suburb of Jarville-la-Malgrange and the somewhat gentrified but still largely low-income inner suburb/cité populaire of Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy. Hollande won 53% here, winning by a short edge in Laxou and the canton of Jarville-la-Malgrange (though he took 56% in the chef-lieu of that canton) and 54% and 63.5% in the two cantons of Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy (58% overall). Marine won only 13.4% of the vote, doing well only in Jarville-la-Malgrange proper. The borders have changed a lot, but in the old second, the right was usually dominant. The left won the old constituency only thrice, in 1981, 1997 and 2007. In 2007, with the right’s Gérard Léonard, longtime incumbent, retiring, the PS’ Hervé Feron took this seat with 50.7% in the runoff. The redistricting has added two cantons from the old third, which was eliminated. The old third, held by the right since 1988 (but by only 13 votes in 1997…), was won in 2007 by the young UMP rising star of sorts, Valérie Rosso-Debord, who has (had?) a bright future promised to her as one of those fairly good-looking middle-aged right-wing women attack dogs. The redistricting shafted her – I wonder why Marleix did this – into this seat, more left-leaning (though it is notionally right-wing, on 2007 results, by a hair). The race is a fairly interesting contest between Hervé Feron (who is mayor of Tomblaine, now outside this seat) and Rosso-Debord. Féron should win here, unfortunately for her ambitions.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left
 
3rd (Pays Haut/Longwy/Briey, PS)*: The old third is gone, the new third is the old seventh. Compared to the old seventh, it only gains the canton of Briey. Hollande won 58.9% here. This is left-wing country, the well-known Pays Haut. The cause, being, of course, the bassin sidérurgique lorrain – Lorraine’s iron country. Longwy, Villerupt, Briey, Tucquegnieux, Herserange, Hussigny-Godbrange, Briey and Mont-Saint-Martin are some of the most famous industrial iron mine/ironworks towns in the Pays Haut. This region has a very strong left-wing – socialist or communist – tradition, the result of religious secularization but also because a lot of the original workers came from abroad – notably Italy and Poland – Longwy has a significant Italian-ancestry population, and the influence is perceptible if you look at the names of old PCF deputies here. The PCF, indeed, retains strength in this area. All but two (Longwy, held by a DVG; and Longuyon, held by a DVD) of the constituency’s seven cantons are held by the PCF. Mélenchon won 18.3% here, including 24% in Villerupt and Herserange. The FN is quite weak in the Longwy basin: only 19-20% for Marine this year, for an overall result of 21.6% in the constituency (BUT ALL TEH COMMIE OUVRIERS VOTE FN!!!111). The left has held this seat since about 1978, with the sole interruption of 2002. The PCF’s votes allowed the PS to hold on here in 1993. But in 2002, poor transfers from the PCF (19%) allowed the UMP’s Édouard Jacque to narrowly gain this seat. The PS’ Christian Eckert regained the old seventh in 2007, with 53.1% in the runoff. The PCF still took 18.5% in the first round. Jacque won the traditionally left-wing stronghold of Longwy in the 2008 locals, which might be a fluke. But he is not running this year, and the UMP’s candidate is the former departmental boss of the Jeunes Pop and is apparently a stupid hack. The main contest will probably be on the left, between Eckert (PS, mayor of Trieux and incumbent) and the FG candidate, Serge de Carli, the PCF CG/mayor of Mont-Saint-Martin whose suppléant is the PCF CG for Briey. The FN will probably not come close to qualifying for the runoff. I think the PS should win, but a FG upset is not out of the question, especially with such a good candidate.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
4th (Lunéville/Bayon/Tomblaine, UMP)*: Gains Tomblaine and Arracourt. This constituency covers the southeast of the department, around the old military (and somewhat working-class) town of Lunéville but also extending into Nancy’s suburbs – Tomblaine or Saint-Nicolas-de-Port. This region, influenced by the old military-nationalist tradition and the Catholic influence perceptible along the border with Moselle, has usually leaned to the right. Sarko won narrowly, with 50.6% on May 6. He lost in Lunéville by a short margin. The left usually finds its strength here in Tomblaine – a new addition to the constituency – which is a very working-class suburb of Nancy and in working-class communities along the Meurthe (Saint-Nicolas-de-Port, Damelevières). Le Pen won 25.5% here – first place while Sarko placed third, her best result in the constituency, doing especially well (26-31% of the vote) in the more isolated and rural/distant exurban/ouvrier caché cantons. The left won only once here, in 1988, but did come 9 votes short in 1997 against the RPR. The right returned in 2002 and held on easily in 2007, with 57.9%. The redistricting likely makes it marginally more left-leaning, but not by a lot. The UMP incumbent here since 2007, Jacques Lamblin, faces an EELV-PS candidate, Marie-Neige Houchard (who I think has no political mandate). The FN will likely feature in a triangulaire. I am not sure of how to evaluate this race. The UMP incumbent is the mayor of Lunéville, so he can likely do pretty well there, and the left’s candidate being from EELV rather than some PS dude is not a swell idea to win a seat like this. The Greenie could certainly win, more fluke-ishly than anything else, in a triangulaire, but for now I guess the right will hold on here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
                           
5th (Toul, UMP): This seat is the only not affected by the redistricting. It covers the west of the department, centered on the industrial basin of Toul, which is also an old military city. Sarko won his best result here, with 52.8%. Hollande won a single canton, Neuves-Maison, whose namesake is an old ironworks town, but which is more and more a middle-class suburban canton for Nancy – like a lot of the constituency, which lives almost entirely in the suburban and exurban influence of Nancy or Toul. Le Pen won 24.7%, placing third. The seat has usually been a right-wing stronghold, but the left won here in 1988 (defeating a longtime incumbent and former cabinet minister) and 1997. In 2002, the PS incumbent Nicole Feidt, despite having won the city of Toul from the right in 2001, fell victim to the young UMP contender… Nadine Morano, who won 56.3%. In 2007, Morano won with a ‘small’ 52.8% in the runoff after a very strong first round result. Morano is a moron, a talentless hack whose only strength is her ability to be a formidably loyal Sarkozyst frontline attack dog and pathological liar. On the ground, she seems to be an active deputy who makes constant use of vulgar populism and cultivates the image of an uneducated redneck. Her strength and profile did not prevent her from badly losing in her 2008 attempt to topple the PS in Toul. This year, she seems fairly threatened, and the likelihood of a triangulaire with the FN weakens her standing. She faces, on the left, Dominique Potier, the PS mayor of Lay-Saint-Rémy. I’m pessimistic, but I think Moron-o could narrowly hang on. I wouldn’t put it past her to go on a fascist-fest to appease FN voters.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
6th (Pont-à-Mousson/Homécourt, PS)*: Gains Pompey and loses Briey. Hollande won 56.4% in this seat, which stretches from the iron mine cantons of Homécourt and Conflans-en-Jarnisy (both held by the PCF) to some older industrial cantons including Pont-à-Mousson, Dieulouard or Pompey (in the suburban vicinity of Nancy, Maxéville and Champigneulles are working-class communities). The left is dominant, of course, in the cantons of Homécourt and Conflans-en-Jarnisy (70% and 61% for Hollande) but also in Pompey (58%). Hollande narrowly won the canton of Dieulouard and the city of Pont-à-Mousson proper, whose ‘histoire sidérurgique’ ended quite some time ago. The left has been on top here since the 1970s. The sixth constituency in its former shape has been represented by the PS’ Jean-Yves Le Déaut since 1988 – who even survived the 1993 disaster. He won with around 58% in 2002 and 2007, and with 63% in 1997. He will win easily this year again, facing only testimonial UMP opposition which will be made even weaker in the case of a triangulaire with the FN – Marine won 24.3% here, Sarko won 20.5%.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
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« Reply #139 on: May 30, 2012, 06:08:07 pm »
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Glad to see that you are in the fog on 4th and 5th, like me.
I think Morano will lose, as Toul is important and as she seems to tire even her own voters.

(like for Loire, I'm afraid you'll have better predictions than me on Moselle Tongue
but the 9th of June isn't tomorrow, so I can change until then... Wink)



I've done the rest of IdF.
Clearly, if you want to have priorities, Seine-et-Marne is the finest one, as constituencies have changed a lot.
(unfortuantely, Copé should win Grin)
Then, Val d'Oise, as there are divisions on the left.
Then, closely behind, Essonne.
Then Hauts-de-Seine and Val-de-Marne on a par.

The PS may reach its majority thanks to gains in IdF, really.



On Nord, your analysis will be highly welcome, especially for the 5th (Huyghe), the 7th, the 10th (yeah... Vanneste), the 14th, the 15th, the 18th and, of course, the 21st (Borloo).
I'm lost with all these new boundaries Grin !

On the "Français de l'étranger", it could be really weird too.



Haven't made my totals (I need to sleep), but there is NO greenie group in the Assembly from this map Cheesy
The PRG, with some "DVG" may be able to have one.
The FG will reach the 20.
The NC and the Parti Radical are too low, except if they gather all their deputies...

EDIT: it's something like a switched 2007.
The PS will have a majority alone if my predictions are right and if we include the "dissidents". Or at least PS+DVG+PRG.
Well done, Franz-im-Glück and Lucky John-Mark Sad Tongue
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« Reply #140 on: May 30, 2012, 09:52:19 pm »

Moselle
2007: 8 UMP, 2 PS
 
1st (Metz/Woippy/Rombas, UMP^)*: Gains Rombas and a tiny slice of infra-urban Metz-3 (quartier Nouvelle Ville, a fairly middle-class and bobo-type area, afaik), but loses all of Metz-1. The result is something which is not that nice. Including the old iron basin of Rombas/Hagondange/Marange-Silvange/Maizières-les-Metz/Talange, the low-income working poor suburb of Woippy, some more middle-class and right-leaning suburbs and a weird slice of a Metz canton. Hollande won 52.3% here, boosted by Metz but above all by the town of Woippy itself (59%), Rombas, Talange or Marange-Silvange. Sarko won the more affluent suburbs. This seat is vacated by François Grosdidier (UMP, mayor of Woippy), who won this seat from the PS in 2002 and became Senator last year. He won 52.4% under the old boundaries in 2007, in 1997 he had been victim of a triangulaire with the FN. Marine won 21.9% here, doing very well in the canton of Rombas and in Woippy proper. This year, the situation is a bit weird. There is no incumbent, the seat is notionally UMP, but the PS is the party to beat here. The PS candidate is Aurélie Filipetti, the new minister of culture, who won the 8th constituency in 2007 (which included Rombas), but who found herself shafted with the elimination of the eight. The media gnomes think this is a very tough race, but I doubt the UMP's candidate, Julien Freyburger, a local councillor who got his ass handed to him in the cantonals last year, is a 'strong candidate'. Especially when there's a chance that the FN can make the triangulaire here. Maybe I say this because I have a soft side for Filipetti, who's kinda hot by politician standards Wink
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (sorta kinda GAIN)

2nd (Montigny-lès-Metz/Metz-Borny, UMP): This constituency is unchanged. It is another fairly atrocious constituency which reaches into Metz' east side (Metz-4, a fairly populaire canton with the Borny ZUS, 53.6% Hollande) and then includes parts of the weird canton of Montigny-lès-Metz which is made up of three non-contiguous enclaves - this includes two of these 'enclaves' including the chef-lieu, Montigny-lès-Metz, a lower middle-class/middle-class suburb right outside Metz; the affluent canton of Verny and the middle-class suburban canton of Ars-sur-Moselle (whose chef-lieu is a leftist bastion: old iron town). Sarko took 54.5%, and Marine won a fairly poor 20.3%. He narrowly won in Montigny-lès-Metz, rumped in the whole of Verny and narrowly won in the canton of Ars-sur-Moselle. The UMP' Denis Jacquat has held this seat since 1988, surviving a triangulaire with the FN in 1997. In 2007, he won 55.9%. This year, he faces Jean-Michel Toulouze, the PS CG for Metz-2 whose suppleant is the CG for Ars-sur-Moselle. In a 1981 case, the PS could win here without it being too shocking, but I don't think the left is in such a favourable position at this juncture. Jacquat should hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

3rd (Metz-centre/Vigy/Panze, UMP)*: This canton gains Metz-1, but loses part of Metz-3 (Nouvelle Ville). It thus includes almost all of Metz except for Nouvelle Ville and the whole of Metz-4, in addition to one enclave of the awful canton of Montigny-lès-Metz (including, notably, the very affluent suburb of Saint-Julien-lès-Metz) and the two fairly well-off middle-class suburban/exurban cantons of Vigny and Pange. Sarko won 52.5% here, likely a short margin due to Metz - which he lost fairly narrowly. Metz has usually been a right-wing city - the right governed the city 'since 1848' (according to journalists of doubtful credibility), until 2008 when the right's division between the incumbent maverick Jean-Marie Rausch, the MoDem's Nathalie Griesbeck   and the UMP's Marie-Jo Zimmermann allowed the PS' Dominique Gros to win the city handily. Otherwise, Sarko did well in the rest of the suburban cantons. Le Pen won 19.9% overall, her lowest result in the department. The left has never won this seat. Since 1998 it has been held by Marie-Jo Zimmermann (UMP) who won 51% by the first round in 2007. With a triangulaire not very likely, and the PS' candidate (Christiane Pallez) being a low-key local councillor, she should win another term with much ease.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

4th (Plateau Lorrain/Sarrebourg, UMP)*: Gains Grostenquin. Sarko won 63.3% in this solidly right-wing, rural seat. Only the canton of Delme is a bit more suburban, though Sarrebourg is the main regional centre in this constituency and has its own 'sphere of influence'. In demographic terms, this seat is poor and working-class - we've found the ouvriers cachés! Indeed, the UMP's main rivals here nowadays tend to be the FN - Marine won 28.4% - a bit less than 2 points behind Sarko and way ahead of Hollande (18%). In political terms, the battle in this largely clerical and Catholic region used to be between Christian democrats and Gaullists - which also reflected a deep divide between the Germanophone cantons and the Francophone cantons, the former being more favourable to Christian democrats. Between 1968 and 1988, this seat was the impregnable stronghold of the Gaullist Pierre Messmer. In 1988, he was toppled in a big surprise by Aloyse Wahrhouver, a centrist who aligned with the Rocard 'ouverture'. He was reelected in 1993 and 1997, more because of his personality and local base than any left-wing base in this right-wing stronghold! In 2002, he was defeated by his longtime Alain Marty, the RPR-UMP mayor of Sarrebourg. Normality returned in 2007 after the 1988-2002 'weirdness'. Marty won 56.7% by the first round, against only 12.8% for the PS candidate. Marty will win easily this year, and if there is to be a runoff, it will probably be a UMP-FN affair.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Pays de Bitche/Sarreguemines, UMP): Like the fourth, this seat is solidly conservative, including the very conservative rural cantons of the Pays de Bitche but also the more urbanized cantons around the small industrial centre of Sarreguemines. Sarko won 60.6% here, but in the first round Marine came out on top of him with 29% against 27.5% (and only some 19% for Hollande). Like the fourth, demographically this is a poor and working-class region overall, and it is terrain which is very favourable to the FN, which won up to 32% in the canton of Sarralbe. Politically, this seat is a right-wing stronghold. Between 1958 and 1962 and then 1973 and 1997, it was the seat of Jean Seitlinger, a Christian democrat. However, his retirement in 1997 opened a "succession war" on the right - which resulted in the shocking victory of a Socialist, Gilbert Maurer, with 50.3% in the runoff. In 2002, the UMP mayor of Sarreguemines, Céleste Lett, signaled a returned to normality when he won 57.1% in the runoff against Maurer. Maurer's victory in 1997 and his defeat in 2002 showed a very, very marked divide between Maurer's home turf in the Bitche country and the right's home turf in and around Sarreguemines. These divisions were basically wiped out in 2007 when Lett won 61.4% - by the first round! (against Maurer no less...). This year, Lett should win handily. If there's a runoff, it will almost certainly be against the FN.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
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« Reply #141 on: May 30, 2012, 09:52:58 pm »

6th (Forbach/Stiring-Wendel/Freyming-Merlebach/Bassin Houiller Lorrain, UMP): This seat is unchanged. Centered around the regional centre of Forbach, this seat covers part of the Lorrain coal basin, most notably the old mining towns of Forbach, Petite-Rosselle, Behren-lès-Forbach, Stiring-Wendel, Schœneck and Freyming-Merlebach. Mines have closed, unemployment is high, the region remains poor and the presence of large immigrant communities (notably in Behren-lès-Forbach, one of the few real leftie strongholds...) has bred a very strong FN vote. Marine placed first with 29.8%, while Sarko placed third with 23.3%. In the runoff, however, Sarko won here with 53%. I believe Jospin won this constituency in 1995, but the left has never been dominant in the mining basin of Lorraine, a world away from its dominance in the NPDC. A mix of Catholic traditions and local recruitment of employees bred this conservative tradition, which the FN has exploited very well. Panzergirl placed first in almost all of the aforementioned communes, often with over 30% of the votes, while Sarko placed third - but then Sarko won all of the aforementioned communes, even Forbach which tends a bit more to the left. The PS won this seat twice; in 1981 and 1997. In 1997, the presence of the FN in the 3-way runoff goes a long way to explaining the PS' victory. Which was, of course, shortlived. The former right-wing incumbent, Pierre Lang, UMP mayor of Freyming-Merlebach, beat the incumbent in a duel runoff with 62% in 2002 and then won 65.3% in the 2007 runoff. This year, Lang faces a tough contest. The FN fancies its chances in the "Henin-Beaumont of Lorraine", and it is running a fairly new face: Florian Philippot, who was Panzergirl's campaign director. Philippot is a high-profile 'star candidate' with some local roots. But on the other hand, his image as a technocratic elitist and an outsider of sorts to the region might hurt him, as could the dissident candidacy of Eric Vilain, who ran for the FN in 2007 (7.8%). The PS candidate is Laurent Kalinowski, the CG/mayor of Forbach. In a likely triangulaire with a very strong FN (24-28% overall?), he could very well stage a repeat of 1997 and defeat the UMP. I don't really think the FN can actually win here, but it can perform very well.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

7th (Saint-Avold/Bassin Houiller Lorrain, UMP)*: Loses Grostenquin and gains Bouzonville/Creutzwald, thus basically uniting the other part of the coal basin of Lorraine. This seat is centered on Saint-Avold, another big mining town, with its surroundings, equally marked by mining: Creutzwald, Faulquemont, Folschviller, Falck, Hombourg, L'Hôpital, Porcelette, Carling and Bisten-en-Lorraine. Once again, same story: mines are closed, the region is still very working-class, relatively poor and suffering from high unemployment. Marine placed first with 29.6%, though Sarko was second with 23.9%. In the runoff, he won 54.7%. He prevailed in all the aforementioned towns save for Creutzwald, Faulquemont, Folschviller and Hombourg, where Hollande narrowly came out ahead. The left won this traditionally conservative seat only once, in 1981. In 1997 and 2002, the runoff opposed the right and the FN. In 2007, André Wojciechowski, the PRV mayor of Saint-Avold, won the seat for the first time with 52% in the first round. He faces Paola Zanetti, a PS regional and local councillor and Nathalie Pigeot, a FN regional councillor. There is room for an upset here, by cause of a triangulaire, but the left being even weaker here than in the sixth, he should not face lots of trouble, especially not if it ends up UMP-FN like in 1997 or 2002.

Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
8th (Pays Haut Leftist Reserve, PS)*: Gains Fameck and the commune of Terville from the canton of Yutz. This is basically the old tenth constituency. This creates another "reserve" for our evil baby-eating socialist atheist friends. Hollande won 58.2% here and won each canton with at least 55% of the vote, peaking at 60.8% in the PCF bastion of Moyeuvre-Grande. This mosellan part of the Pays Haut continues the iron basin found in Meurthe-et-Moselle, with iron works or defunct iron ore mines in towns such as Fameck, Moyeuvre-Grande, Fontoy and 6000 towns ending '-ange' - Hayange, Algrange, Ottange, Uckange, Florange and, of course, the Martyr City of Gandrange. The post-iron era reconversion process is difficult and still ongoing, and this region is largely poor and blue-collar. The left, PS or PCF, has long been dominant in this constituency. Since 1962, the right won here only twice: in the tsunamis of 1968 and 1993. In 1997, Michel Liebgott (PS) won a seat left open by the retirement of the one-term UDF incumbent, taking 66% in a runoff against the FN. He won 59% in 2002 and 56% in 2007. The addition of Fameck only shores up this constituency. Michel Liebgott, PS mayor of Fameck and incumbent, will win easily. The result of the FN - Marine placed distant second with 24% (Sarko won about 19%...) - and that of the FG (represented by the PCF mayor of Algrange) - Mélenchon won 14.2% here will need to be watched closely.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Thionville, UMP)*: Gains Metzervisse, loses the town of Terville (canton of Yutz). This seat expands a bit but remains centered on Thionville and its area. Thionville, originally quite integrated with the Pays Haut's industrial activity, has succeeded its post-crisis reconversion and has become a fairly affluent middle-class and white-collar town. Its suburbs are fairly affluent as well. The cantons of Cattenon and Sierck-les-Bains on the border with Germany are somewhat rural, with a strong Catholic tradition which has made them quite right-wing. I suppose you might have a lot of more open-minded, liberally-oriented cross-border commuters there. Sarko won 54.6% here, while Le Pen won only 20.5% here. Sarko won about 53% in Thionville. The left won this seat only once, in 1981. In 1988, the RPR's Jean-Marie Demange won this seat and held on in each successive election, with 52% in 1997 but 55% in 2007. Demange became mayor of Thionville in 1995 in a city ruled since 1977 by the PCF, but in 2008 he was surprisingly defeated by the PS' Bertrand Mertz. So, Demange held the seat until 2008, when, depressed, he went on a murderous rampage which claimed the life of his mistress before he committed suicide himself. Yeah, I find the idea of your MP going on a murderous rampage a bit... out there... vote for me, or I'll kill myself. Since then, the seat has been held by his suppleant, Anne Grommerch (UMP). She faces a close contest with Bertrand Mertz, the PS CG/mayor of Thionville (and responsible for the murderous rampage of Demange, I guess). The FN shouldn't qualify for the runoff, I think. The right likely retains an edge, despite Mertz' likely advantage in Thionville.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
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« Reply #142 on: May 30, 2012, 10:51:51 pm »

Yonne (I don't know a whole lot about electoral sociology here, sadly)
2007: 3 UMP

1st (Auxerre/Puisaye, UMP^)*: This apparently has gained some small hamlet in some commune (?). This seat covers Auxerre, a fairly bellwetherish town, governed by the PS since 2001. Hollande won 54% in the city, but lost to Sarko in the more affluent suburbs. Hollande won the suburban canton of Coulanges-la-Vineuse, but rural areas in this sector remain largely right-leaning. Sarko won 52.1% here, while Marine took 21.4% here, her weakest result in the department. Since 1968, this seat has been held by Jean-Pierre Soisson, who in 1988 became one of the UDF centrists who participated in the Rocard 'ouverture' - in fact, he became their sort of leader and created a party - the MDR - to represent the movement. In 1993, he easily won reelection over his old colleagues. In 1997, by which time he had turned a bit more to the right, he defeated the PS. In 2007, running for the UMP, he won 54.5%. In recent years, he's turned into a bit of a useless old idiot. There's a great picture of him somewhere on my computer ingesting some huge piece of ham while drunk at a party at the National Assembly. That hasn't kept the man who won the regional council in 1992 with the FN's vote to provide comments pertaining to political morality. He's retiring this year, leaving a tough open race. Guillaume Larrivé, a UMP regional and local councillor, faces Guy Férez, the PS mayor of Auxerre since 2001. Tough to handicap this race with Soisson out of the picture, but I'd join Fab and predict a short PS win. Férez seems like a good candidate. I do not think the FN should make the runoff, but if it did, the UMP would find itself seriously weakened.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

2nd (Avallon, UMP)*: Gains Brienon-sur-Armançon. Sarko won by a short margin here, with 51.4%. Marine won 24.1% here. The main town is Avallon, in the southeast of the department. It is a more working-class regional centre, which gave 56% to Hollande. The same result he won in Tonnerre, another of the main PS bases in this region. But the most important leftie base here is Migennes, one of the last few remaining cites cheminotes which lined the Paris-Lyon railway. Migennes has usually been a PCF base, the canton gave 55% to Hollande overall. Sarko found most of his votes in some auxerrois suburbs and in Chablis' wine country. The left won this seat in 1981, 1988 and 1997. Since 2002 it has been held by Jean-Marie Rolland (UMP), CG for Vermenton and president of the CG between 2008 and 2011. In 2007, he won 53.8% in the runoff. Like in the past two elections, he faces Jean-Yves Caullet, the PS deputy here between 1999 and 2002, who is also CG/mayor of Avallon. With the FN likely to make the runoff, a triangulaire would be very dangerous for the right here. I have a hard time seeing this seat resist the mini-pinkish wave.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

3rd (Sens/Joigny, UMP)*: Loses Brienon-sur-Armançon. Sarko won 55.6% here, and Marine won 25.4%, her best departmental result. Besides the regional town of Joigny, the north of the department included in this seat is increasingly under the influence of greater Paris, and a lot of the areas around Sens are in fact growing distant Parisian exurbs. They're not very wealthy, fairly lower middle-class in terms of class or income. Hence, the FN performs extremely well. Over 28% in the two cantons bordering the IDF, over 30% in another. This exurban trend has also, of course, been favourable to the right as a whole. The PCF, which used to have some influence in Sens, has basically been killed off. Hollande placed third here on April 22. The left won only once, in 1981 (of course). Since 2007 this seat has been held by Marie-Louise Fort (UMP), mayor of Sens until the PRG gained the city in 2008. She faces the PRG mayor of Sens, Daniel Paris, but also a PS candidate from Joigny. The left's division could eliminate it by the first round, resulting in a UMP-FN runoff. Even a triangulaire with regional FN leader Edouard Ferrand would still end up favouring, I think, the UMP.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

Nord tomorrow.
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #143 on: May 31, 2012, 04:32:06 am »
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Great stuff ! Cheesy It almost makes me wish the election was held later. Tongue
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


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« Reply #144 on: May 31, 2012, 06:16:01 am »
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Moselle 9th: I think the PS candidate is quite strong, with his city behind him and against a weak UMP candidate. And there is a risk of a triangulaire.

Moselle 6th: I agree with you, it's a real tossup; I've just made up my mind Wink and opted for a repetition of the 1997 scenario.

As for Filippetti (yeah, 2 "p" for your miss Grin), indeed, she isn't in a weak position at all. It's not a shoo-in but she is far more favoured than Carlotti, or even Le Foll (though the latter will probably become the new "favourite son" very easily... a bit like Hollande in Corrèze after so many years of pompidolo-chiraquism...).

Yonne: haven't I said this is a difficult department to predict ? Wink

I look forward to reading from you on Nord.
Bon courage ! Many constituencies and some tough ones...
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« Reply #145 on: May 31, 2012, 05:20:56 pm »
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Well, I'm tired whereas I haven't written any great stuff like Hash Tongue
And I'm completely lost in Réunion (I HATE this department and its silly politics !!!) but also among French people abroad, as the turnout was so low and so many surprises can occur (I think many "real" French abroad, DVD, will prevail).



So, it gives me:

PS: 268
PRG-DVG: 41
(sub-total: 309)
EE-LV: 10
(sub-total: 319)
FG: 20
independentists or left regionalists: 3

MoDem: 1
extreme-right: 1

UMP: 189
NC-radicals-DVD: 44
(sub-total: 233)

In other words:
the PS and its "dissidents" will have a mjority on their own
no Green group
a possible PRG-DVG group
a FG group
no FN MP (just Bompard in Vaucluse who isn't a member of the FN)
one MoDem left (Jean Lassalle)
a victory for the left almost as big as the right victory in 2007.

Now, I'm sure to be wrong again Tongue
But it's the game !
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« Reply #146 on: May 31, 2012, 05:31:05 pm »
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A bigger and more readable métropole.

Of course, until the 9th of June, I keep the right to update my predictions (especially for overseas territories and for French abroad !) Wink
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« Reply #147 on: May 31, 2012, 05:49:03 pm »

Nord
2007:
 
1st (Lille-Centre/Wazemmes/Lille-Sud, PS)*: Gains Lille-Centre and the commune of Loos in the canton of Haubourdin, loses Lille-SO. There’s a mistake on my map apparently because the canton of Lille-SE is not included in its entirety, unlike on my map. I wonder how long it is before some asshole on the internet decides to throw a fit over this tragic mistake. This seat takes in the downtown parts of Lille (Lille-centre) and some southern parts (Moulins, parts of Wazemmes and Lille-Sud). The result is a fairly sociologically mixed seat, from the traditionally affluent bourgeois central core to old working-class and impoverished ZUS-cité populaire neighborhoods in Lille-Sud. Wazemmes and Moulins remain fairly poor, but there’s been some gentrification at work there in recent years and Wazemmes in particular is more and more bobo/hip/artsy – like the old bourgeois central core. Hollande won 62.1% in this leftie stronghold, including 73% in Lille-Sud (held by the PS since 1945) but also a very nice 57% in Lille-Centre (held by the right between 1945 and 2008). He also won 58% in the working-class suburb of Loos and 54.5% in Faches-Thumesnil. Marine won 14.3% overall, behind Mélenchon who polled 15.2%. The trend here is very favourable to the left, the reverse of what’s happening the rest of the department. The PS has held this seat since 1973, losing narrowly only in 1993. Since 1997, it has been held by Bernard Roman (PS). He won 61.8% in 2007. He has no strong opponents and will win another term easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Lille-Hellemmes/Villeneuve-d’Ascq, PS^)*: Gains the commune of Mons-en-Barœul (part of Lille-NE). This seat includes Lille-Est and the two cantons of Villeneuve-d’Ascq. Lille-Est includes the neighborhood of Fives and the old commune of Hellemmes, both former industrial proletarian faubourgs which have struggled in recent years and remain largely impoverished and blue-collar with little gentrification. Villeneuve-d’Ascq, on the other hand, is a ville nouvelle from the 1970s largely known for its big scientific research and the presence of academia in the city. There are some more low-income inner-city areas too, but in large part the city is quite ‘bobo’. Hollande won 66.5% in Lille-Est and 59% in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, also dominating in the smaller towns of Mons-en-Barœul, Ronchin and Lezennes. Overall, he took 60.8% here. Marine took 16.3%, doing best in Lille-Est, while Mélenchon won 15.5%. The left has long been dominant here, since 1973 or even earlier. The seat has been held since 1988 – even in 1993 – by the PS’ Bernard Derosier, who won 58.7% in 2007. He is retiring and the PS’ Audrey Linkenheld will hold this seat easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Maubeuge/Avesnes-sur-Helpe/Vallée de la Sambre, UMP)*: The new third is the old twenty-third, more or less. Compared to the old 23rd, it gains Avesnes-Nord, Trelon and Solre-le-Chateau. Hollande won 52.4% in a seat with a UMP incumbent (from the 23rd) but which would have been notionally PS on these boundaries in 2007. The main centre here is Maubeuge, 58% for Hollande, and the main industrial town in the old metallurgical belt in the Sambre valley. The constituency also takes an unorthodox shape to take in the northern canton of Avesnes-sur-Helpe and also the canton of Trelon, which includes the textile town and PCF stronghold of Fourmies. While rural, exurban and suburban areas lean to the right, the left still has an edge in the old industrial Sambre valley - towns such as Louvroil or Boussois (two PCF strongholds) in the valley used to be centres of the metallurgical industry which predominated in the past. The left has usually been dominant in the region, the PS and PCF alternated control of the seat in the 1960s and 1970s. But the old 23rd, under much different boundaries, returned right-wingers in 1993 and onwards. In 2007, Christine Marin won a first term with 50.8% in the runoff against Rémi Pauvros, the PS mayor of Maubeuge. The new seat is favourable to the left, and the strong presence of the FN here (26.5% for Marine, against some 22% for Sarko) means that she's certainly toast this year, going up against, once again, Rémi Pauvros, the PS mayor of Maubeuge. It would be funny if the UMP incumbent didn't even make the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (sorta kinda GAIN)

4th (Lille-Nord/Lille-Ouest, UMP)*: Gains Lille-Nord. Sarko won 54.2% here, in a seat which includes some parts of Lille proper (parts of Vieux-Lille) but is mostly a suburban seat – fairly affluent – including middle-class suburbs in the cantons of Lille-N, Lille-O and Quesnoy-sur-Deûle (though the border town of Comines is quite working-class). La Madelaine and Saint-André-lèz-Lilles, middle-class but not as affluent, voted for Hollande (he also might have won the parts of Lille proper, even though the Vieux-Lille is traditionally bourgeois), but the rest of the constituency went pretty big for Sarko. Marine did well in Comines, more blue-collar, but only won 15.8% overall. The right has always held this seat, since 1992 it has been held by Marc-Philippe Daubresse (UMP, ex-UDF). Daubresse is a fairly high-profile figure of the UMP’s centrist wing and briefly served in the last cabinet. He won by the first round in 2002, and in 2007 he won 58.7% in the runoff. In the first round that year, Olivier Henno, the MoDem mayor of Saint-André-lèz-Lille and CG for Lille-Ouest won third place with 18.1%. Henno is a fairly high-profile member of the MoDem and one of the last few loyal bigwigs in that pathetic joke party, and he preceded the Big Boss in endorsing Hollande after April 22. He was supposed to run this year, but he dropped out. This likely plays to Daubresse’s advantage. He faces Hélène Parra, a PS regional and local councillor. The runoff will be a traditional left-right battle, which should probably turn out to Daubresse’s advantage.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
5th (Seclin/Haubourdin, UMP)*: Gains the canton of La Bassée, loses the commune of Loos in the canton of Haubourdin. This is a key swing seat. Hollande won 50.3% in this seat, which includes the old textile towns of Seclin and Haubourdin in suburban Lille. It now extends to La Bassée (a little move to shore up the right...), whose chef-lieu lies in the coal mining basin. Seclin and Haubourdin are both old PCF strongholds, and the towns proper remain fairly blue-collar and lower-income. Hollande won both of them, with about 53-54% (which I think is probably waaaaaaaay lower than what Mitt’rrand might have won here in 1965 or 1981). A lot of the other parts of the seat have turned into fairly well-off middle-class suburbs of Lille. Sarko won the canton of La Bassée (though lost the extremities which are in the mining basin) and did well in most other suburbs. The FN also has a foothold here: Marine won 22% of the vote here, but took 26% in Haubourdin or La Bassée (the towns themselves). This region had basically been a left-wing stronghold from 1962 to… 2002. The old fifth constituency even voted PS in 1993. Martine Aubry won 60.8% in the runoff in 1997. In 2002, however, Aubry was defeated by a young nobody – Sébastien Huyghe – who won with 51.1% in the runoff against Aubry, a monumental defeat for Aubry which led to her famous tears that night. In 2007, Huyghe confirmed a sharp right-wing trend here, winning narrow reelection with 50.7%. In 2008, however, Aubry staged her revenge when he got his ass handed to him in the local election in Lille, where Aubry won a monumental 66% in the runoff and landed Huyghe a massive blow. This year, he faces a rather tough contest. His PS opponent is Alain Cacheux – the incumbent in the old third which finds itself eliminated in this redistricting. Cacheux’ old seat was exclusively lillois, and none of its parts were given to this constituency. But the whole area is pretty much a giant city, so I doubt ‘carpetbagging’ will be too much of an issue here. Cacheux will need to deal with Bernard Debreu, the PCF mayor of Seclin (11.7% for Mélenchon in this seat, fairly crappy result), while Huyghe will need to make sure that the FN doesn’t get into a fatal triangulaire. I have a hard time seeing Huyghe survive in a climate like 2012. I don’t know a whole lot about his strengths on the ground or as an incumbent (though he is boosted a tiny bit by redistricting), but my hunch isn’t optimistic in his favour.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
6th (Pont-à-Marcq/Pévèle, DVD-UMP): This seat is unchanged. It remains composed of Lille’s western suburbs and exurbs, and is traditionally right-wing. Sarko won 56.1% here; his second best result in the department. He was, of course, boosted by the upper middle-class affluent suburbs which make up this constituency, notably in the canton of Cysoing (about 59% for Sarko) but also in Lannoy (the canton is cut in two: the most affluent and right-wing parts are in this constituency). Only Orchies proper and Ostricourt (which I think is an isolated mining basin town) are more working-class and left-leaning. Marine also did fairly mediocrely: 18.7%, doing best in the most exurban parts of this constituency, less affluent and less integrated in the lillois metropolis. Since 1993, this seat has been held by Thierry Lazaro (UMP) who gained it from the PS that year. In 1997 he won by a very tight margin (50.1%) but in 2007 he was returned with 56.6% in the runoff. With the FN out of contention for the runoff in this constituency, Lazaro should not have too much trouble defeating the PS candidate, a local councillor. There is, however, a DVD candidacy from the CG for Cysoing which could trouble things.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #148 on: May 31, 2012, 05:49:53 pm »

Part 2

7th (Hem, NC)*: This constituency loses the parts of Roubaix-Centre and Roubaix-Est it included, while gaining Roubaix-Ouest. The constituency includes part of the canton of Lannoy (Hem) and all of Roubaix-Ouest, which also includes two affluent suburban communities (both solidly for Sarko). The old seventh, which included right-leaning suburbs in Lannoy but dirt-poor parts of the very deprived blue-collar cities of Roubaix and Wattrelos, was very marginal, held in 2007 by a margin of some 200 votes by the NC incumbent, Francis Vercamer. Marleix decided to gerrymander a shored-up constituency, which loses the parts which don’t vote correctly and added those who generally do – Roubaix-Ouest, where the bulk of the population lives in two affluent suburban towns (overall, 52% for Sarko). Sarko hence won the new boundaries with 52.9%. The new boundaries also had the nice effect of taking out parts of Wattrelos where the FN is very strong – in the old seventh, the Greenie Guy Hascoët (yeah, the guy who is now living like a hippie in Breizh or something) had won in 1997 thanks to a triangulaire de la mort with the FN (which averaged 19-24% or so in the old seat, iirc). Marine only won 17.9% here, thus basically eliminating the risk of a triangulaire. Vercamer is very nicely shored up by Marleix’s creative use of Gerry-DeLay scissors. I don’t think he should have much trouble this year; the PS candidate seems like a nobody.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
8th (Poor People in Roubaix-Wattrelos Leftie Reserve, PS-DVG)*: While Marleix shored up the right in the seventh, he packed the lefties into an Indian Reserve. This seat gains Roubaix-Centre and Roubaix-Est, while losing Roubaix-Ouest. The new seat is ultra-safe for the left, Hollande took 61.2% of the vote, on Sarko placed third behind Marine with only 18% in the first round. This seat includes almost all of Roubaix (67% Hollande) and Wattrelos (54.5% Hollande). Roubaix, the old textile capital of France – the French Manchester – is nowadays a very low-income and economically disadvantaged blue-collar cité populaire with 76% of people living in a ZUS and a large (30-40%?) foreign-born population. Wattrelos is not as dirt poor, but remains a low-income working-class city – but more WWC than the new mix of immigrants which predominates in Roubaix. The FN is strong in Wattrelos (27.8% for Marine) but much weaker in Roubaix (15.6%), but overall Marine won 21.3% and very distant second. The old eight was more swingy because of its composition, Marleix’ redistricting shores up the left. The old eight was won by the UDF in 1988, 1993 and 2002, but the PS won it in a triangulaire in 1997 and won it back in 2007 when the UDF-MoDem incumbent retired. Dominique Baert, mayor of Wattrelos, won in 1997 and again in 2007. In 2007, he took 56.9% in the runoff. This year, Baert faces a fight on the left. Indeed, he got shafted by the PS when they endorsed EELV (Slimane Tir) here. Tir is a local councillor in Roubaix, where he is in opposition to the PS mayor. While Roubaix sure as hell doesn’t scream bobogreenie country, Tir and the Greens seem rather well implanted locally; his list won 18.1% in a three-way runoff against the PS incumbent (René Vandierendonck, who is actually a former UDF dude) in 2008. His suppléant is a PS local councillor in Wattrelos, but I’m kind of foreseeing a regional battle between Baert in Wattrelos and EELV-PS in Roubaix. There’s lots of disagreement out there on who will win, which I’ll be a wet chicken and cop out of participating in. The UMP will likely be eliminated from the runoff, and unless the FN places second (which I doubt it will) it too will be eliminated in a region which is well known for very low turnout. There is a risk for a Tir-Baert duel in the runoff, a very small chance for a triangulaire between the two lefties and the FN, and the possibility that the leftie who places second drops out and endorses the guy who places on top. The ‘left’ wins here, but which one it will be… well, I’m a wet chicken.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Marcq-en-Barœul/Tourcoing-sud, UMP)*: Gains Lille-NE (except for the commune of Mons-en-Barœul). Sarko won 58.3% here, his best result in the department. A result due almost entirely to the weight of the canton of Mons-en-Barœul, which gave Sarko a bit less than 69% of the vote – including 81% in Bondues. This canton breaks stereotypes about the Nord being like West Virginia – full of inbred rednecks/coal miners with a weird accent and missing half their teeth. This canton is one of the wealthiest in the country, it's really an upper middle-class/upper-class constituency. Otherwise, the seat has included since 1986 the canton of Tourcoing-Sud (55% Sarko) where the more leftie leanings of parts of Tourcoing are canceled out in the affluent town of Mouvaux. The addition of Lille-NE, which largely includes the gentrified middle-class neighborhood of Saint-Michel Pellevoisin makes it a bit more leftie on the whole, but not in a way which threatens the Gaullist/conservative dominance which has prevailed here since 1958. The UMP incumbent, Bernard Gérard, mayor of Marcq, won 60.2% by the first round in 2007. There's a nice chance he could win by the first round, like the right had also done in 1993 and 2002, but whatever the case, the right will win handily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

10th (Tourcoing/Vallée de la Lys, RPF-DVD): This constituency is unchanged. It includes all of Tourcoing save for the part included in the ninth constituency, but also the suburban communities which are included in the cantons of Tourcoing-N and NE. Sarko won 53.2% in this constituency, losing in Tourcoing, the old working-class textile town (55.5% for Hollande, Sarko had won it in 2007), but prevailing in the rest of the constituency - largely middle-class suburbia but also winning by a comfortable margin in Halluin, an old working-class textile town on the Belgian border. This constituency has shifted hard to the right, even if Tourcoing remains left-leaning on balance. Marine won 22.3% here, including 21% in Tourcoing and 25% in Halluin. Politically, the seat reelected an incumbent only once, in 2007. The PS won in 1988 and 1997, while the right won in 1993, 2002 and 2007. In terms of personalities, the seat has alternated since 1988 between Jean-Pierre Balduyck, the former PS mayor of Tourcoing; and Christian "Frothy" Vanneste. Vanneste won reelection with 58.6% in the runoff in 2007, but in 2008 his high-profile attempt to conquer the city of Tourcoing from the left failed epically, losing by the first round. Vanneste, a scumbag who would render the world a great service if he got run over by a truck, has a major Santorumite obsession about TEH GAYS (SAVE TEH CHILDREN!111) and FAMILY VALUES!111. He's a known homophobe, and would probably have been a keen collabo in 1940. He crossed the no-no line with the UMP big bosses earlier this year when he went off the deep end and denied that Nazis ever deported homosexuals. So he's running for reelection as a dissident, having joined - for some reason - Pasqua's old moribund outfit, the RPF. Unlike in 2007 (when he had already run as a DVD, because the UMP wasn't keen on endorsing Frothy), however, he faces UMP opposition - Gérald Darmanin - the leader of the municipal opposition in Tourcoing. The PS candidate is Zina Dahmani, local councillor in Tourcoing, whose suppleant is the PS mayor of Halluin. Unlike in 1997, I don't think the FN can qualify for a three-way runoff here. I think Frothy will come out ahead of the UMP, but I can't assess what consequences the troubles on the right will have for Frothy in a runoff. I'm a pessimist, but I'd give Frothy a narrow edge here. A Frothy-UMP-PS runoff would, however, probably allow the PS to win. Could somebody please run him over with a tractor?
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

11th (Armentières/Lomme, PS)*: This seat loses La Bassée but gains Lille-SO. Hollande won here with 53.8%. Armentières, a major working-class textile town and historic PS stronghold, is the main town in this constituency. It also includes Lomme, a former industrial commune now attached to Lille where it is a lower middle-class residential neighborhood; the other communes in the canton of Lomme are all quite affluent and solidly right-wing. The addition of Lille-SO really shores up the left here, it gave 63% to Hollande. It includes parts of Wazemmes, Lille-Sud, the Faubourg de Bethune and Bois Blancs; most of these neighborhoods except perhaps Wazemmes and Bois Blancs are impoverished cité populaire areas and generally solidly leftie. The seat has been held by the left since 1958 with the exception of 1993. Save for 1993, Yves Durand (PS) has been the deputy here since 1988. He won with 52.3% in 2007, a bit more than the 50.something he won by in 2002 - he did, however, beat the incumbent with 59.1% in 1997. Durand is running for another term, he should win easily against low-profile opposition. Marine won 19.4%, I don't think the FN will make the triangulaire unless the UMP is eliminated by the first round which I don't think is very likely.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
« Last Edit: May 31, 2012, 08:10:21 pm by Sharif Hashemite »Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #149 on: May 31, 2012, 10:26:45 pm »

12th (Le Quesnoy, PS)*: The new twelfth is basically the old 22nd, compared to that seat it gains the cantons of Hautmont, Avesnes-sud and Landrecies while losing Le Cateau-Cambrésis. Hollande won 54% in this constituency, the main bases of the left being the PCF stronghold of Aulnoye, in the extension of the Sambre valley (like Hautmont or other towns in the canton of Berlaimont, which gave no less than 61% to Hollande overall), the canton of Solesmes (not Fillon's Solesmes! - this one is a working-class town, an old textile town) and the canton of Carnières (Avesnes-les-Aubert, a textile and railway town, a PCF stronghold in which Mélenchon placed first!). The bulk of this region has old leftie traditions, and a proletarian past rooted in textiles, railway lines or other industries. Besides some more affluent suburbs in Le Quesnoy-ouest/est and Solesmes, this is also a fairly poor region and it is economically troubled as well. Marine won 25.2% against a bit over 22% for Sarko here. With exceptions like 1958, 1968 or 1993, the left - PS today, PCF for a time in the 60s and 70s - has been dominant in this region. The PS even won this seat (the 22nd) in 1993. Christian Bataille (PS) has held this seat since 1988. In 2007, he won 52.8%. The PCF won 13.9% in the first round in 2007 and Mélenchon won 14.5% in the new boundaries, sign of a certain PCF influence in towns like Saint-Vaast or Avesnes-les-Aubert. Bataille will win easily, especially if it ends up as PS-FN or even in a triangulaire. The performance of Bernard Baudoux, the PCF CG/mayor of Aulnoye who ran here in 2007 will be interesting.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

13th (Dunkerque Lefties Indian Reserve, MRC)*: Another nice 'reserve' constituency. This seat loses Dunkerque-est but gains the entirety of Dunkerque-ouest and Grande-Synthe. Dunkerque-est included some more affluent coastal parts of Dunkerque, so it is shifted and replaced by the canton of Grande-Synthe, a working-class and industrial leftie stronghold (70.9% for Hollande... 65.7% in the canton). Dunkerque-ouest also has leftie working-class strongholds: Coudekerque-Branche, Cappelle-la-Grande. Dunkerque voted for Sarko in 2007, but overall gave 55.5% to Hollande this year, but the parts included in this seat are more leftie and more working-class/low income. Hollande won 59.7% here, while Marine took 25% on April 22 (up to 29% in Cappelle-la-Grande) against about 18.6% for Sarko. Christian Hutin, the MRC (ex-RPR) mayor of Saint-Pol-sur-Mer, first elected in 2007 in the 12th (64% in the runoff), is running here. He should win easily, and he will likely face the FN alone in the runoff.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

14th (Gravelines/Plaines de Flandre, UMP)*: Loses Cassel and Steenvoorde, gains Dunkerque-est and Gravelines. This likely makes it lean left a little more. Sarko won very narrowly, with 50.5%. The result of a pretty stark political division between Gravelines - a working-class city whose canton was 58% for Hollande, and the rest of the constituency (except for some leftie textile etc towns on the border with the PDC, like Watten) which covers the traditionally conservative and Catholic plains of Flanders. The right's margins in French Flanders are no longer what they once were (60-70% or so, in the 60s and 70s) but the region still leans to the right overall. The old 14th was more right-wing, the left only won once (in 1997) since 1958. In 2007, Jean-Pierre Decool (UMP) won a second term with 56.7% by the first round... Decool is running again this year, and faces Jean Schepman, the PS CG for Hondschoote. Marine won 24.5% and the FN could very possibly maintain its candidate in a triangulaire. This will be a very close contest, I think, and a lot depends on how the FN does and whether there is a triangulaire or not. I think, in the anticipation of a triangulaire, I would lean towards the left here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

15th (Merville/Hazebrouck/Flandre, PRV-UMP)*: Gains Cassel and Steenvoorde. Sarko won 50.7% here, but lost in the two main cities here - two working-class textile towns, Merville and Hazebrouck, both by significant margins. He also lost, narrowly, in Bailleul. In this suburban and exurban seat, Sarko dominated most the more "rural" areas, which have the Catholic and conservative tradition of French Flanders. Le Pen did fairly meh, with 22.9%, which in this case is about the votes needed to qualify for a 3-way runoff. The left has traditionally been quite dominant in this region, the left's only victory here was in 1997... and in 2002 - the right was divided in 2002, it likely hurt it in the narrow runoff against the PS incumbent, who won with 50.3%. When he retired in 2007, Françoise Hostalier, who had previously won in the 11th in 1993, won with 51.9% in the runoff. She's running against this year, and faces a tough PS duo: Jean-Pierre Allossery, CG/mayor of Hazebrouck and Michel Gilloen, CG/mayor of Bailleul as his suppleant. Hostalier will also suffer from the candidacy of Jean-Pierre Bataille, the DVD mayor of Steenvoorde and UMP dissident. Even if the FN does not make it into a three-way runoff, I would think that Hostalier, who doesn't appear to be a particularly well-entrenched or strong incumbent, will lose.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

16th (Marchiennes, FG-PCF)*: What a stupid constituency. Loses Auby, Râches, Raimbeaucourt, Roost-Warendin (canton of Douai-NE) but gains Sin-le-Noble and Waziers (canton of Douai-N). This constituency, which gave Hollande 63.6%, is a core mining basin constituency. All the communes of the cantons of Douai-N and NE included here are old mining villages, while most of Marchiennes also falls in the mining basin. With the mines closed, this region has retained the strong proletarian and communist tradition which has dominated here since the end of the nineteenth century. In terms of income, it remains a very poor constituency, except for the non-basin parts of Marchiennes, with high unemployment and economic ruin. In political terms, the PCF has held this seat since 1928/1932 at least, with the exception of 1958. The mining basin of the Nord, as opposed to that of the Pas-de-Calais, has always had a penchant for the most radical wing of the workers' movement, after Tours it opted for the PCF and formed the first PCF strongholds in the country. The PCF tradition remains strong, the canton of Marchiennes has been in Communist hands since 1945 at least save for six years in the 1970s, and the PCF also holds Douai-N. The PCF holds a bunch of communes in this constituency too. Finally, Mélenchon won 20.2% here, and won a few old PCF strongholds (Waziers). Sarko placed fourth with 16.2%, while Marine did extremely well with 25.2%. Georges Hage (PCF) held this seat between 1973 and 2007, and oftentimes the main competition came from the PS, which, placing second, invariably dropped out and allowed the PCF to win unopposed in the runoff. Only in 2007 did the UMP finally managed to place second (with 23.8% against 32.9% for the PCF's Jean-Jacques Candelier and 20.7% for the PS). In the runoff, Candelier, mayor of Bruille-les-Marchiennes, won 66.1%. He will face a PS candidate again, Christian Entem, mayor of Sin-le-Noble, but his reelection is very likely. Either the PS or FN will place second.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

17th (Douai, FG-PG)*: Gains Auby, Râches, Raimbeaucourt, Roost-Warendin (canton of Douai-NE), loses Sin-le-Noble and Waziers (canton of Douai-N). This constituency is centered on Douai, a regional centre for the mining basin with some old mining neighborhoods and mines itself. Douai leans left more often than not, but has been governed by the right since 1983. Besides places in the canton of Douai-NE, this region lies a bit in the periphery of the mining basin, and does not contain a whole lot of old mines or mining villages. It remains a working-class and fairly low-income region, though with some more middle-class pockets. Hence, the region is left strongly leftie. Hollande won 56.7% here, though Sarko still placed a bad third in the first round with a bit over 21% against 24.4% for Panzergirl. The PCF has not held this seat since it took its recognizable shape in 1986, though it did win 16.1% in 1997. The right won here in 1993, but otherwise since 1988, this seat has been held by Marc Dolez, who in 2008 become one of the co-founders of the PG. Dolez had been a key figure on the left-wing of the PS for quite some years. In 2007, as a PS candidate, he won reelection with 62.1% in the runoff. He should win another term, as a FG candidate opposed by a PS candidate, rather easily. The FN might make a triangulaire here, with no major effects.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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