French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[Hashemite]

I also have 16 pure tossups in my predictions, where I'm not ready to make a call yet. A few are more UMP vs. FN tossups (like Haute-Marne) but the left will probably win a few of those. In the end, I slant a bit more to the right than Fab, but it's pretty close.

[big bad fab]

I also have 16 pure tossups in my predictions, where I'm not ready to make a call yet. A few are more UMP vs. FN tossups (like Haute-Marne) but the left will probably win a few of those. In the end, I slant a bit more to the right than Fab, but it's pretty close.

Yeah, we are quite close.
That's probably why I'll be wrong again

[Hashemite]

Hauts-de-Seine: Hot Seats

5th (Clichy/Levallois-Perret, UMP): Sarko won by the skin of his teeth, with 51% in this constituency. A narrow result which reveals the polarization of this constituency between its two towns: Clichy and Levallois-Perret. Hollande won 66.9% in Clichy, but Sarko took 63.3% in Levallois-Perret. Clichy is a fairly poor and old blue-collar suburb, with a population made up largely of employees or intermediate-grade professionals. Of course, few places in the Petite Couronne are actually working-class, much less in the 92, but Clichy is one of those formerly proletarian hinterland communes transformed into low-income suburbs of employees, immigrants and poorer suburbanites. It obviously has seen gentrification and it isn't some craphole like some places in the 93, but nothing has changed the solidly left-wing physiognomy of the place. On the other hand, Levallois-Perret used to be more working-class - it was a PCF stronghold until the 70s or so - but has been turned into a bourgeois upper middle-class suburban city, which isn't as affluent as Neuilly but certainly a very nicely off suburb. Politically, Levallois-Perret is best known as the stronghold of the Balkany clan, one of the main 'clans' in the eternally amusing world of right-wing politics in the Hauts-de-Seine. Patrick Balkany, a close friend of Sarko, served as mayor between 1983 and 1995, when he was defeated by a chiraquien rival, and again since 2001. Of course, in reality, Balkany and his sidekick (Isabelle Balkany) should be in jail, given that they're criminals. He held this constituency between 1988 and 1997, when in the midst of judicial problems the clan lost the seat to Olivier de Chazeaux, the chiraquien who had won the city hall in 1995. However, in 2002, Balkany retrieved his old seat in a close three-way runoff battle against Gilles Catoire, the PS mayor of Clichy, and the UMP-endorsed incumbent, Olivier de Chazeaux. In 2007, Balkany won 55.3% in the runoff against Catoire. This year's match opposes another Patrick Balkany-Gilles Catoire rematch. The race promises to be very narrow, though perhaps Balkany does have a narrow edge.
I rated this as a 'pure tossup'. I might reclassify it as 'tossup with right edge'.

10th (Issy-les-Moulineaux/Vanves, NC): Hollande won 53.5% in this constituency which includes all of Vanves, Issy-les-Moulineaux and a part of Boulogne-Billancourt. Vanves and Issy are two fairly upper middle-class communities, Vanves has gentrified a lot and is rather bobo these days, though Issy is increasingly bobo as well. Vanves, however, leans to the left, Royal narrowly won it in 2007 and Hollande took 56% this year. Issy-les-Moulineaux generally leans to the right, though Hollande won it this year with 52%. This constituency is now falling under the bobo/young professional middle-classes belt of the southern 92, coinciding with the Paris-Orsay axis of scientific research and educated professional middle-classes. The right's traditional hold on this seat is threatened this year. The seat has been held by André Santini, the slightly corrupt old UDF-NC mayor of Issy-les-Moulineaux and another of the main fixtures in the world of 92 right-wing politics. He won with 55.9% in 2007, a margin slightly narrower than his 1997 margin. He faces the same candidate, Lucile Schmid, but she has since quit the PS to join EELV. She has the PS' endorsement, but there is a dissident candidacy by Laurent Pieuchot, who had been her PS suppleant in 2007. I think Schmid can still prevail over the dissident, and in the runoff, if things work out fine, the trend is heavy against the right here...
I'd stick with my slightly daring 'lean left' call here.

12th (Clamart/Fontenay-aux-Rose, UMP^): Hollande won 53.5% in this seat, whose electoral sociology is quite similar to the 10th, located in that Paris-Orsay axis of professional middle-class suburbs, which are shifting heavily to the left. Hollande won 58.5% in Fontenay-aux-Roses, historically more left-leaning and I believe historically more blue-collar; but also 55% in Chatillon and 53% in Clamart. He only lost in Le Plessis-Robinson proper. Semi-ironically, Le Plessis-Robinson is, of the four communes, the one which is the "least" professional with higher percentages of employees and slightly less bobo in its general political orientations. The right is clearly threatened here, in a seat which, again, it has held since 1988. In 2002, Philippe Pemezec, a slightly distasteful right-winger under the Pasquaist RPF etiquette defeated the UDF-UMP incumbent, Jean-Pierre Foucher, in the first round (27.1% vs. 24.7%) and then won the runoff with 53.6%. In 2007, he won a fairly small 52.9% in the runoff. In 2008, a by-election gave the edge to his successor Jean-Pierre Schosteck after Pemezec was declared ineligible in a campaign finance problem. But only with 51.6%. Pemezec, who is also mayor of Le Plessis-Robinson, is running this time, with Schosteck as his suppleant. The aubryiste Jean-Marc Germain is the PS candidate, while the EELV's candidate, Francine Bavay, had won 46% in the runoff in 2002, as the Green-PS candidate. I don't think the PS' candidate is particularly strong, but the results were already narrow in 2007 (but was it because the then-PS candidate, Kaltenbach, now senator, was mayor of Clamart?) and Hollande won pretty handily here, so I would still bet on the left.

13th (Antony/Sceaux, UMP): Hollande won 52.7% in another bastion of the 92 right which has been held by the right since 1988 but which looks increasingly disputed this year. This constituency includes Châtenay-Malabry, a town marked by the presence of several universities (58% Hollande); Antony, the political base of the UMP incumbent in this constituency, Patrick Devedjian, traditionally a right-leaning town but Hollande narrowly won here with 52%; Sceaux, a very bourgeois town which was Sarko's only victory (but with a small 52%); and Bourg-la-Reine, rather upper middle-class but which handed Hollande a win with 52%. Again, this part of the 92 is in the boboized professional middle-class Paris-Orsay axis, and this constituency in particular has a fairly large student population and an important academia base. The right has historically been dominant, in the figure of Patrick Devedjian, former mayor of Antony and deputy since 1988. Historically a Sarkozyst, the relations between Devedjian and the Sarkozyst clan have soured and he is increasingly seen as one of the 'anti-Sarkozysts' in the wonderful world of UMP shenanigans in the 92. Devedjian won 54.9% in 2007... in 1997 he had won 55.9%. Devedjian faces a tough race but can hope to profit from the left's troubles here. The PS is officially backing Julien Landfried, from the MRC, but the PS section in Bourg-la-Reine is backing Fabien Feuillade, a EELV local councillor in Antony. On top of that, the FG is running the 2002 PS candidate against Devedjian, Pascale Le Néouannic. The division of the left could ruin its hopes of defeating the president of the general council and certainly one of the top figures of the Gangs of New York UMP92. I predicted a tossup with a right edge here, and I'm confident with my call (for now).

[big bad fab]

Yeah, I agree, Devedjian can make it. The left isn't fantastic in his constituency and his independent mind can save him.

As for Balkany, I'd say it'd be narrow too IF the PS candidate wasn't Catoire: he is too old and it's a bit as a football match between Levallois and Clichy: even if you don't like the team of your city, you support it in the end... At this game, Levallois will back Balkany enough for him to win.

And we agree completely on the 10th and 12th.
Santini will fall, due to the fact he is a dinosaur now and that bobos will back Schmid heartily.

[Hashemite]

In a preview of what I'll be busy doing after June 10, plus a blog post. Official predictions of who will actually win in order to get a prediction by party. Sooooo....
 
French abroad
These predictions are to be taken with a truckload of salt given that turnout will be 15-25% at most, and that you could have weird things going on...
1st: C. Narassiguin (PS); F. Lefebvre (UMP) defeated
2nd: S. Coronado (EELV); don't jump, Fabien.
3rd: A. Lemaire (PS); she's hot
4th: P. Cordery (PS); M-A. Montchamp (UMP) defeated
5th: A. Leroy (PS)
6th: C. Schmid (UMP); l'honneur est sauf pour Johnny!
7th: P-Y. Le Borgn' (PS)
8th: D. Poznanski-Benhamou (PS)
9th: P. Amirshahi (PS)
10th: A. Marsaud (UMP)
11th. T. Mariani (UMP)
 
Prediction: 7 PS, 3 UMP, 1 EELV
 
French Polynesia
1st: E. Fritch (DVD)
2nd: J. Tahuaitu (DVD)
3rd: J-P. Tuaiva (DVD)
 
Prediction: 3 DVD


In overall terms, this moves my prediction totals up to:

Safe left: 210
Left favoured: 40 > 42
Lean left: 28 > 30
Tossup - left edge: 43
Left total: 321 > 325

Pure tossup: 16

Tossup - centre edge: 2

Safe right: 89 > 85
Right favoured: 67 > 66
Lean right: 42 > 43
Tossup - right edge: 40
Right total: 238 > 234

I won't have time or energy to write any more profiles (two all-day meetings at work this week...), but I can certainly justify my predictions or comment briefly on any constituency.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !

The FN candidate in Morano's constituency is dead.
The new candidate is his former deputy/substitute.

Don't know if and how it will affect the race.
Maybe Morano may benefit from the lil' mess it might entail.
On the other hand, she has some legal suits pending for diffamation...

Predictions altered ?

[Californian Tony]

8/11 foreign seats for the left ? I can't believe this !

Thank you for all your amazing work. All this will make election day far more entertaining to me.

[big bad fab]

This evening, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog and, honestly, it's pretty good for the PS. After all, my predictions may well be right globally speaking

[Hashemite]

I don't know why I read Fredo's latest email, but he's making sure that only dumb people vote for him:

David Servan Schreiber

(lol)

En me choisissant au premier tour, vous avez privilégié l'expérience et la compétence, acquises ces 25 dernières années au Parlement et au Gouvernement pour vous protéger et agir à l'Assemblée nationale.

[...]

Ensemble, barrons la route à une gauche sectaire et rétrograde, incarnée ici par une candidate socialiste alliée de l'extrême gauche qui se fait passer pour centriste aux États-Unis.

[...]
Liens avec l'Amérique du nord : j'y ai appris à parler et marcher, j'y ai mon frère, mes cousins germains, mes neveux et nièces, bientôt mon fils, mes meilleurs amis. Je suis donc hébergé dans toute la circonscription.

What a moron.

[Californian Tony]

j'y ai appris à parler et marcher

Wow, good job! Too bad he's never learnt to read.

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

[Hashemite]

Just voted.



Let's defeat the moron.

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

Maybe tomorrow
I've got so many other things to write this night (always my personal problems )

[Hashemite]

I present to you the FG candidates in Neuilly-Puteaux:



This FN candidate not only looks like a rapist (like most FN candidates do, but that's another matter), he also has a cool ironic name:

[Hashemite]

Also, with a candidate like this, you can't say the UMP hasn't tried appealing to the bobos in Paris' 6th constituency:



Bohbot pour les bobos!

[homelycooking]

This FN candidate not only looks like a rapist (like most FN candidates do, but that's another matter), he also has a cool ironic name:

Is he running somewhere in Alsace?

Also, with a candidate like this, you can't say the UMP hasn't tried appealing to the bobos in Paris' 6th constituency:

What the hell is this? The bold text reads "I am a candidate in the legislative elections" - what a stirring campaign slogan!

[Hashemite]

Maginot ran in the Africa/Middle East constituency, perhaps in an attempt by the FN to build a second Maginot line to keep the evil brown people from destroying our Judeo-Christian roots.

On a serious note, I've had the time to do a really mini guide to these elections, including my predictions: http://welections.wordpress.com/2012/06/07/france-legislative-elections-2012-guide/

[big bad fab]

Actually, the "t" in Bohbot isn't muted

He's some of the former loyal troops of Dominati, a former pro-Algérie française piece of crap who headed the second Corsican clan, after the Tiberi, when the right was dying, in 1995-2001...
Dominati was a symbol if these Giscardians coming from the far-right and deep anti-gaullist.

[batmacumba]

This FN candidate not only looks like a rapist (like most FN candidates do, but that's another matter), he also has a cool ironic name:

Is he running somewhere in Alsace?

Also, with a candidate like this, you can't say the UMP hasn't tried appealing to the bobos in Paris' 6th constituency:

What the hell is this? The bold text reads "I am a candidate in the legislative elections" - what a stirring campaign slogan!

Being, his main achievements, rooting for Paris Saint-Germain and fishing the Paris Marathon 5 times, It seems a fitting slogan.

[Californian Tony]

LOL, where did you find all these guys ?

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

Maybe tomorrow
I've got so many other things to write this night (always my personal problems )

There, I've posted on my blog all the latest polls and there are MANY of them !
No big surprise, though Pyrénées-Orientales 1st and Alpes-Maritimes 2nd (Argh) may be interesting.
Meirieu is ahead of Braillard in Lyons

[big bad fab]

LOL, where did you find all these guys ?

You can find more of them here: http://lolgislatives2012.tumblr.com/
LOLgislatives, justement...

[Hashemite]

I like this royalist candidate...



But is she old enough to vote?!

[politicus]

I like this royalist candidate...



But is she old enough to vote?!

French Royalists are greenies!?

[crypto-fascist superhero]

I like this royalist candidate...



But is she old enough to vote?!

French Royalists are greenies!?

Greenies are already reactionaries, so it's a natural pairing.