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Author Topic: French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions  (Read 18483 times)
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« Reply #25 on: May 21, 2012, 02:07:57 pm »

Mayenne
2007: 2 UMP, 1 PS

1st (Laval, PS)*: This seat, a weird rurban gerrymander reaching from the northeast of the department takes in most of Laval. It has gained Laval nord-est but lost Saint-Berthevin and Laval nord-ouest remains excluded from the constituency. There is a major political divide at work here, between the leftie parts of Laval and its inner suburbia, and the more conservative rural cantons (notably Evron and Pré-en-Pail). Though Laval has been voting on the left for quite some time now, the constituency remained more or less right-leaning until 2007. Between 1978 and 2007, the seat was held by François d'Aubert (UDF-DL), mayor of Laval between 1995 and 2008. However, in 2007, d'Aubert was toppled from his dominance (he had won by the first round in 2002) when he was defeated by Guillaume Garot (PS) with 50.6%. Garot went on to take the city of Laval from d'Aubert in 2008. Though rural areas remain right-wing, Hollande dominated throughout Laval and some newer suburbs in the canton of Argentré, to win 51.3% of the vote. Garot, the new PS baron in the conservative Mayenne (and also one of Royal's last soldiers) will win, not in a landslide because the redistricting has weakened him a bit and because the right has a high floor, but he should not worry too much. Especially now that the right is divided. The UMP is represented by local councillor Samia Soultani-Vigneron, but she faces a right-wing dissidence organized by the DVD CG/mayor of Pré-en-Pail whose suppleant is the DLR CG for Laval-est. There is also an AC candidacy in this department ruled by AC's big boss, Senator Jean Arthuis.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

2nd (Château-Gontier, UMP-RS^)*: This constituency has gained Laval's suburban Saint-Berthevin, but lost the rural canton of Loiron. The fief of Gaullist strongman Henri de Gastines between 1968 and 2002, this extremely conservative rural constituency in the old reactionary/Catho/chouan country of Château-Gontier and southern Mayenne (bocage manceau) has always been a stronghold of the right, where politics have opposed the Gaullist family to the centrist family. Sarko won 55.2% here. In 2002, the UMP's Marc Bernier won 52.1% in a runoff against a UDF candidate, the PS having been ousted by the first round. Same story five years ago: after a breezy first round, where Bernier took 43.3% to the Elisabeth Doineau (MoDem)'s 19.4% (the PS in third with 17.5%), he won the runoff by the skin of his teeth against the MoDem general councillor, with only 51.8%. Bernier, a villepiniste and sworn enemy of the other UMP deputy in Mayenne (Yannick Favennec), was forced to retire this year as the UMP was aiming to topple him anyway. A battle royal on the right is on the menu here. The favourite is Elisabeth Doineau, the MoDem's 2007 candidate who almost won. She has since joined Arthuis' locally dominant AC and is the favourite to win this year. She does not have the UMP's support - the UMP is supporting Guillaume Chevrolier, a little known local councillor who will get crushed in this battle royal. Her main rival will probably be Philippe Henry, the popular DVD mayor of Château-Gontier (who ran in 1997) whose suppleant is the DVD mayor/CG of Saint-Berthevin. The left will be kingmaker in a likely fraternal runoff between the right's families. The left could make the runoff, but it will be hindered by its division between a well-known EELV candidate, who is CG for Laval-NO, and a small town mayor who is backed by the PS. The left can make the runoff, but it cannot win it (save by a fluke).
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

3rd (Mayenne, UMP)*: This constituency gains Loiron but loses Laval-NE. This constituency has usually been a right-wing stronghold, though the fairly blue-collar city of Mayenne is left-leaning. Rural areas, however, remain extremely right-wing on the whole. In 1997, the UDF incumbent since 1981, Roger Lestas, won only 52% in the runoff against the PS mayor of Mayenne. But in 2002, the ex-DL UMPer Yannick Favennec imposed himself in a divided four-way first round fight on the right and defeated the same mayor with 58% in the runoff. Favennec has since built up his base and gained national notoriety has a straight-speaking maverick who has not hesitated to bash Sarkozy and wage a civil war against Marc Bernier. Favennec, a close supporter of Copé, is the big boss of the UMP fed in the department now. In 2007, he won reelection by the first round, with nearly 59%. He is the big favourite this year, facing no significant rivals on the right and on the left, only a small town mayor from the Greenies who is backed by the PS. The left's victory would be forcing Favennec to wait until June 17 to be elected.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
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« Reply #26 on: May 21, 2012, 03:43:39 pm »

Sarthe
2007: 4 UMP, 1 PS

1st (Le Mans-centre et NO/Sillé-le-Guillaume, UMP): Le Mans is split into four different rurban constituencies, in line with French tradition. Hollande won 50.4% in this constituency, boosted by a big win Le Mans-NO (56.6%, parts of Le Mans - the uni I believe - with middle-class/public sector suburbs which went Hollande). Rural areas, especially Sillé-le-Guillaume, are far more conservative - western Sarthe is traditionally conservative, under the socio-economic and political influence of the inner west. This right-leaning seat resisted the red onslaught in 1981, 1988 and 1997 (right 56.1% in the runoff). In 2002, the longtime incumbent won by the first round while in 2007, Fabienne Labrette-Ménager won 56.6% in the runoff against a PS local councillor from Le Mans. Though Hollande won here, the right is likely solid enough here. The PS candidate is the same as in 2007.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

2nd (Le Mans-sud et est, PS): This is the most left-wing seat in the Sarthe, having given Hollande 58.4%, who won well over 60% in the three urban cantons of Le Mans, which are the low-income and most working-class place of the old industrial city. But he even won in the more affluent suburban Le Mans-est campagne and two exurban cantons. This has usually been a PS/PCF stronghold, falling to the right only in 1993 and 2000 (by-election). In 2007, the PS' Marietta Karamanli defeated UMP incumbent Jean-Marie Geveaux (who held the seat in 1993-1997 and 2000-2007) with 52.5% in the runoff. I don't even know who the right's candidate is here. Karamanli will win easily, but the FG could win up to 10% and the FN could make a nice showing, Le Pen having won 19% here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

3rd (Ecommoy/La Flèche, UMP): This is a fairly working-class rural/exurban constituency, except for parts of the canton of Ecommoy which are more suburban. But the eastern regions of the Sarthe are fairly anti-clerical and have a long history of republicanism and radicalism. Hollande won 51.4% here, doing well in Ecommoy, Pontvallain and Saint-Calais but narrowly losing in the cantons of Le Lude or La Flèche, among others. This seat went to the left in the waves of 1981, 1988 and 1997. But in 2002, the UMP's Béatrice Pavy easily took this open PS seat with 56% in the runoff and held on in 2007 with 55.2%. Running for a third term, she is vulnerable to the left. This constituency was 'given' to the Greens, which, of course, sparked a dissident candidacy which appears much stronger, led by the PS mayor of La Flèche, Guy-Michel Chauveau, who had held this seat between 1981 and 1993 and between 1997 and 2002. His suppleant is the CG for Ecommoy. This seat can obviously go to the left, and Chauveau is a good candidate, for me. A tight one, but I'd bet on the left here. Watch out for the FN in this seat, where Marion took 20%
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

4th (Le Mans-Sablé sur Sarthe, UMP^): This is Fillon's seat, left semi-open by his candidacy in Paris this year. Fillon has held this seat since 1981, replacing his political mentor, Joël Le Theule (who had held it since 1958) following Le Theule's death that year. Fillon had a close race in 1997, winning with 52.7% in the runoff. But in 2002 and 2007, he won by the first round, with 53.4% in 2007. This is not the usual state of things in a marginal constituency, which is very divided between the rural areas around Fillon's base of Sablé-sur-Sarthe and the working-class suburb of Le Mans, Allonnes, a PCF stronghold. Hollande won 52.6% in this seat, including over 60% in Le Mans-ouest and Allonnes, but also 56.5% in the canton of La-Suze-sur-Sarthe which is middle-class Le Mans suburbia. The right remains dominant in the three rural cantons. The left has *never* held this seat, but it might this year. The big race is between Agriculture Minister Stéphane Le Foll (PS), who ran and lost against Fillon in 2002 and 2007; and Marc Joulaud, the incumbent in this seat (Fillon's suppleant) and mayor of Sablé. Le Foll can benefit from the seat's left-leanings, and his stature as a cabinet minister. But Joulaud hasn't had his last word. In the expectation of a left-wing victory, however...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

5th (Le Mans-nord/Mamers/La-Ferté-Bernard, UMP): The left won this seat in the leftslides of 1988 and 1997, but it seems like a tougher proposition this year. Hollande won with only 50.6% here, thanks almost exclusively to Le Mans (and suburbanish Ballon). The rural areas have a left-wing tradition, but it is right/far-right leaning area now. Mamers is fairly working-class, but leans right, as does La-Ferté-Bernard. Marine Le Pen did very well in some rural cantons here, which are subjected more and more to exurban influence from Le Mans and the distant, very distant, influence of Paris which is beginning to be dimly perceivable here (thanks to the TGV). Jean-Claude Boulard, who is now the PS mayor of Le Mans since 2001, won in 1988 and 1997 but in 2002, the UMP's Dominique Le Mener won. He won a second term in 2007 with 55%. The race here is a third successive matchup against Christophe Rouillon, the PS mayor of Coulaines who lost in 2002 and 2007 to Le Mener. The FN might do well here, but no triangulaires.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
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« Reply #27 on: May 21, 2012, 04:36:09 pm »

Orne
2007: 3 UMP

1st (Alençon, UMP^): The city of Alençon, historically pretty blue-collar (Moulinex), leans to the left (and, more recently, its inner suburbs do too) but the rest of the constituency, which takes in some rural and very conservative (and quite clerical) cantons of the bocage ornais, leans to the right overall. It has never elected a left-winger, and Sarko won 52.9% here despite losing badly in Alençon. The UMP's Yves Deniaud has been the incumbent here since 1993, and has since 1997 faced off with Joaquim Pueyo, who became the PS mayor of Alençon in 2008. Pueyo did well in 2007, taking 47.2% in the runoff against 52.8% against Deniaud, doing well in Alençon and his wider canton (Alençon-1). Deniaud is retiring this year, leaving his son, Bertrand Deniaud, as the UMP's candidate. But Bertrand Deniaud faces right-wing dissidents: Christophe de Balorre, a local DVD CG/mayor whose suppleant is also a CG. Pueyo is running for fourth time, boosted of course by his new political base in Alençon. The weight of right-wing rural areas remain important, but the division of the right could prove dangerous even if there is superficial unity in the runoff.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

2nd (Perche/L'Aigle, UMP^): Covering the very rural and conservative Perche ornaise, which has long been a conservative stronghold (note conservative and not reactionary), this constituency is, naturally, the most right-wing in the department. Sarko won 57.7% here. Even the main city, L'Aigle is right-leaning. The centrists held this seat since 1962, and the deputy until 2011 (and since 1993) was the UDF-UMP Jean-Claude Lenoir, reelected by the first round in 2007 with 54.4%. He is now a Senator since 2011, so his seat is open. The right is divided between the UMP's Véronique Louwagie, CG for L'Aigle-Ouest and Jean-François de Caffarelli, a DVD CG/mayor whose suppleant is also a DVD CG/mayor. The MoDem's 2007 candidate, who won 12.2% in 2007, is also in the running. The PS will lose big here, so their candidate is a sacrificial lamb named Souad El Manaa (they have Arabs in the Perche?). The FN is quite strong in the Perche. Marion won 22.9% this year and FN candidates won 17.1% in 1997 and 15% in 2002, and could make a strong showing this year too, but a triangulaire is fairly unlikely - didn't happen in 1997. I don't know who on the right will pull this off, but the right as a whole will win easily.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

3rd (Flers/Argentan, UMP^): This is the most left-wing seat in the Orne, covering the working-class (textile, railroads, metalworking) cities of Flers, Argentan and Tinchebray whose republican leanings were established by Siegfried over a hundred years ago. Hollande actually won here, with 51.6%, doing very well in Argentan (60%) and Flers (58%). The PS won here in 1988 and 1993, with the PS mayor of Flers. Since then, the right has been dominant. Sylvia Bassot has been the deputy since 1996, but she's retiring this year. In 1997, she narrowly beat the PS mayor of Argentan (who has since moved on to higher offices...) Laurent Beauvais with 51.3%, but in 2002 and 2007 she won by the first round, with 52.1% in 2007. The PS officially gave this seat to the Greenies, who turned around and backed a nobody with an Arab name. The main left-wing ticket here is led by Yves Goasdoué, the PS dissident mayor of Flers and CG for Flers-Sud. The right's candidate is Jérôme Nury, mayor/CG of Tinchebray. Goasdoué needs to do as well as Hollande did in Argentan (and Flers too) and not loose too badly in the rural areas and Tinchebray. He is definitely in a strong position to win.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
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« Reply #28 on: May 21, 2012, 06:01:22 pm »
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Awesome thread.
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« Reply #29 on: May 22, 2012, 02:01:22 am »
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This thread is now our daily event, our daily much-awaited reading Smiley
Thanks a lot, Hash, sincerely.
I was too lazy to look for all the candidates in each constituency and you make most of the work: yeah !



I really think Orne will be wonderful to follow. My guts say that the 1st will be won by the left. The right is SO divided in Orne... Lambert himself has put a little mess, like Bassot and others in the recent past. In the 3rd, Caffarelli seems to be more efficient in his campaign and "UMP" isn't really a "plus" in this campaign, I think.

Sarthe: well, I agree with Hash. Chauveau will kill the Green and the right in the 3rd. And Le Foll will prevail: there is a big trend towards the PS here and I think that we may be in another case of switching legitimacy: people were happy to have Fillon, they will be fond of Le Foll... having a ministry in France's rural areas is still something for many people...

Mayenne: no big surprise here. In the 2nd, I don't know, really, though, of course, it will be one of the 2 strong DVD, not the UMP.

Oh, and back to Morbihan, I really think the right will keep the 4th, but with Bléher, not with Guéant Jr. of course (he is so bad... Roll Eyes)

If Hash finishes all his predictions, I'll do also a map of mine (just with UMP, PS, DVD, DVG, FG and EE-LV), which will be as wrong as usual, but it's just for the pleasure of having fun, you know what it is Wink

Thanks again, Gaël, nous te sommes reconnaissant de nous distraire, au meilleur sens du mot Wink
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« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2012, 04:15:40 pm »
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It took time to read it, but it was worthwhile. Smiley I really hope you'll be able to cover all 577 races, even if a bit more succintly than you're doing now.

I'm starting to compile a little map based on your forecasts. Here's what it gives us so far :



Safe left : 24
Left favored : 1
Lean left : 2
Left : 27

Tossup - lean left : 5
Pure tossup : 4
Tossup - lean right : 6
Tossup : 15

Lean right : 6
Right favored : 5
Safe right : 7
Right : 18

The situation before the election is Left 23 / Right 36.
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« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2012, 04:39:30 pm »

Thanks, Fabien (and Antonio!) Smiley

Manche
2007: 3 UMP, 1 PS, 1 DVD
 
1st (Saint-Lô, UMP)*: With the elimination of the old fourth constituency, this constituency gains the cantons of Sainte-Mère-Église and Montebourg. This is a right-wing stronghold, where the left-wing stronghold of Saint-Lô (big public sector, over 60% for Hollande) is overwhelmed by the conservatism of the rural areas. Sarko only won 50.9% here, in line with his terrible performance in the department. Hollande did well not only in Saint-Lô but also in some surrounding communities as well as Carentan, the constituency’s second smaller urban centre. Around Canisy, Percy or Tessy-sur-Vire, the Catholic conservatism unique to the bocage normand appears; while in the Baie d’Isigny (coastal Sainte-Mère-Église) the CPNT used to have a big local stronghold (it is a major hunting region with pissed off redneck hunters). In 2007, the UMP’s Philippe Gosselin won a first term with 57.7% in the runoff. In 2002, the long-time RPR incumbent won by the first round. The far-right has been strong here: Fernand Le Rachinel was the CG for Canisy for quite some time and he won 16.6% in 1997, 12.1% in 2002 and 6.8% in 2007. He has since left the FN and joined Carl Lang’s PDF, and managed to do not-so-terribly for a FN dissident in the 2010 regionals. Marine won 17.2% here. Gosselin is running again, and should win easily. The PS candidate is the CG for Saint-Lô Est. Fernand Le Rachinel is running for the PDF, so it will be entertaining to see whether he benefits from his strong local footing or he, as usually happens with his type, gets crushed by the FN.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
2nd (Avranchin/Bocage Normand, UMP)*: This constituency has only gained the canton of Granville. It remains one of the most right-wing constituencies of the region, covering the still very rural and extremely conservative cantons of the Avranchin and Mortainais in the wider bocage normand. In contrast to a fairly secular region, the bocage normand, especially in these parts, has been heavily influenced by the old Catholic/clerical and reactionary attitudes of the inner west and clericalism used to be solidly implanted. Sarko won 55.3%, pretty sh**t poor by local standards. Hollande even won Avranches and Granville. René André held this seat between 1983 and 2007, when the UMP decided to back then-cabinet minister Philippe Bas, who went up against the dissident UMP mayor of Avranches, Guénhaël Huet. The PS having been trounced early, with barely 14% in distant third, the runoff opposed Huet to Bas, who had been narrowly ahead of the former in the first round. Huet beat Bas decisively in the runoff, with 57.9%. Huet, now UMP, is running again. The PS is backing a PRG city councillor from Granville, but there is a DVG candidate who is a local CG. The MoDem is backing the CG/mayor of Brécey.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
3rd (Coutances/Valognes/Côtes du Cotentin, UMP)*: This constituency benefits from the elimination of the old fourth, gaining the cantons of La-Haye-du-Puits, Saint-Sauveur-le-Vicomte, Barneville-Carteret, Valognes, Bricquebec and Les Pieux. It lost Granville to the second. Even though Coutances is more left-wing and Hollande swept the three northernmost cantons in May (Valognes, Bricquebec and Les Pieux; the latter of which includes Flamanville), the right is usually dominant here. Rural areas tend to be very conservative, as do most coastal areas, some of which are more affluent because of the old people who live there for rather simple reasons. Hollande’s three cantons in the north here and falling under the growing influence of Cherbourg-Octeville. Sarko won 51.5% here. The incumbent in the third since 1988 is Alain Cousin (UMP), who won 60.5% in the runoff in 2007. The old fourth’s incumbent was Claude Gatignol, who opted to retire after being in office since 1988. Cousin is running again, facing only token opposition from a PS regional councillor. He will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

4th (Cherbourg-Octeville/Cap de la Hague): The new fourth is the old fifth, gaining Beaumont-Hague and Quettehou from the old fourth. It is still centered around the working-class city of Cherbourg-Octeville and its proletarian hinterland (Tourlaville, Équeurdreville-Hainneville etc), which has long been an isolated island of socialism – never communism – in a sea of conservatism. Hollande won no less than 58.1% here, including over 60% in Cherbourg-Octeville, Tourlaville and Équeurdreville-Hainneville. At the legislative level, since 1988, no incumbent has ever won reelection. The PS won it in 1988, lost it in 1993 but regained it in 1997 with the then-mayor of Octeville, Bernard Cazeneuve. In 2002, Cazeneuve, who had since become mayor of Cherbourg-Octeville in 2001, lost narrowly to the UMP Jean Lemière, who in turn lost heavily to Cazeneuve, who won 59%. Cazeneuve is now a junior minister, and he has been a very popular mayor of Cherbourg. The UMP putting up no significant opposition, Cazeneuve will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
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« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2012, 04:40:28 pm »

Calvados
2007: 3 UMP, 2 PS, 1 NC
 
1st (Caen-est, PS): This constituency covers most of the eastern cantons of Caen, its suburbs to its east and the suburban canton of Tilly-sur-Seulles. This is generally the more affluent, professional and bobo part of the city – though there are low-income inner city areas (cités) and more working-class or lower income suburbs (Fleury-sur-Orne, Saint-Germain-la-Blanche-Herbe). Usually, this is the more right-leaning of the two urban constituencies in Caen, but it voted for Hollande with 58.1%. Hollande won over 60% in Caen, which is fairly shocking (but not that surprising) considering that Caen is a fairly moderate and never really working-class place. A strong result which is, in this constituency, boosted not only by large-to-huge margins in Caen (67% in the low-income canton of Caen-9) but also by a nice win in suburban middle-class Tilly-sur-Seulles. At the legislative level, quite fittingly, the PS didn’t win here in 1988 but rather won in 1997 when Philippe Duron defeated a longtime UDF incumbent. In 2002, however, Duron was defeated in a very close contest by the then-UMP mayor of Caen, Brigitte Le Brethon. In 2007, Duron, by then president of the CR, took his revenge by defeating Le Brethon decisively (54.2%). This constituency is shifting leftwards extremely rapidly, going to a point where it’s gonna be about as left-wing as the second constituency. Duron, who defeated Le Brethon a second time in 2008 – to become mayor of Caen – is safe. The UMP has token opposition, and nobody else can mount a credible challenge.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Caen-ouest/Hérouville-Saint-Clair, PS): This constituency covers the more low-income parts of Caen and its less trendy suburbs, most notably the big ville nouvelle of Hérouville-Saint-Clair, which is by and large a low-income/inner city/cité populaire though with a tiny bobo/gentrification streak to it. It also includes the canton of Troarn, the western parts of which form part of an old working-class (the metallurgical industry) conglomeration (Mondeville, Cormelles, Giberville, Démouville). It is solidly left-wing. Hollande won 64.1% in this constituency, including 72% in Hérouville-Saint-Clair. Between 1973 and 2002, this area was represented by Louis Mexandeau, the old PS strongman in the Calvados and the eternally unsuccessful rival of the right for Caen’s city hall. In 2002, however, he was defeated by the new young UDF mayor of Hérouville, Rodolphe Thomas, who had taken the PS stronghold thanks to the left’s local troubles and divisions. In 2007, Thomas, while a strong candidate for this sector, was unable to resist Laurence Dumont, the former PS deputy for Bayeux, who won with 54.6%. This year, Dumont should win rather easily. However, she faces some not-so-useless opposition in Rodolphe Thomas (now MoDem), who won reelection to his city hall in 2008 very easily  and had a huge favourite son effect going on for him in Hérouville in the 2010 regionals when he took 39% in his city. Thomas doesn’t have UMP backing, they preferred some no-name, but he is a very strong “right-wing” candidate and can do very well for a right-winger in Hérouville. Dumont will win, but it could be by a surprisingly thin margin.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Auge-sud/Lisieux/Falaise, NC)*: This constituency gains the solidly conservative canton of Cambremer. This is a politically divided constituency, where the old political/economic/geographic divide noted by Siegfried in 1910 between the plaine de Caen and the Pays d’Auge remains quite visible. The two cantons of the plaine, Bretteville-sur-Laize and Falaise (nord, sud), are solidly left-wing (59%, 58% and 57% for Hollande). The plaine, a country of agglomerated settlements (as opposed to the dispersed populations of the rest of the department) and historically a fairly poor rural area with a large mass of poor (some landowning) peasants and rural workers, has been politically different for quite some time. Old mining villages but also suburban growth in parts of Bretteville-sur-Laize contribute, today, to the left-wing leanings. Hollande also won Mézidon-Canon (whose chef-lieu is a cité cheminote) and Lisieux-2. The Pays d’Auge remained right-wing, as ever. Hollande took 51.4% overall. This seat invariably switches to the left in the leftslides. In 1988 and 1997, the PS won, with Yvette Roudy both times. In 2002, the UDF’s Claude Leteurtre won a three-way “primary” in the first round and then soundly defeated the PS in this seat left open by Roudy’s retirement. In 2007, he won reelection with 52.8%. A third successive rematch this year will oppose him to Clotilde Valter, PS CG for Lisieux-2. Panzergirl having won 20.5% here, the FN might make its mark here. Given the seat’s history and the chance of a leftslide, I would perhaps place my bets on Valter this year.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
4th (Trouville/Côte Fleurie/Auge-nord, UMP)*: This seat loses Cambremer and gains Ouistreham. For those who are remotely familiar with the name Trouville, they will not be shocked at all to learn that this seat is the right-wing stronghold of the Calvados. Sarko won 54.8% here, and nearly 67% in the canton of Trouville-sur-Mer. Generally, the wealthy/old people chique coastal resort towns of Trouville, Deauville and so forth  politically dominate over here, helped out by the conservatism of the more rural cantons including Pont-l’Evêque. Honfleur is more marginal, while the canton of Cabourg is divided between a right-wing coast and the very left-wing working-class hinterland of Caen (Colombelles, old bastion of the metallurgical industry in Caen). Ouistreham, recently added, posts a similar divide. In Dozulé, the PCF stronghold of Dives-sur-Mer is a lone island of red in a sea of blue. This was Michel d’Ornano’s seat between 1967 and 1991, and Nicole Ameline (UDF, UMP) has been victorious since then. In 2007, as in 2002, she won first round reelection with 53.4%. She’ll win easily this year, against a PS candidate who is something like 21.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
5th (Bayeux/Bessin-nord, UMP^)*: This seat loses Ouistreham, thus solidifying it for the right. Hollande won with only 50.1% here, doing rather well in Bayeux but also in Balleroy (old mining villages) and especially Creully, where he split evenly with Sarko in Caen’s wealthiest middle-class suburbs. Rural areas of the Bessin, especially around Isigny, remain quite right-wing. The right has usually dominated here, in the person of the old Normand notable François d’Harcourt between 1973 and 1997, until d’Harcourt was defeated out of the blue in 1997 by the young Socialist Laurence Dumont, who won 51.1%. When she moved to run in Caen with Mexandeau in 2002, the UMP’s Jean-Marc Lefranc was able to easily trounce a Green candidate in 2002 and win reelection in 2007 with 55.7%. Lefranc is retiring this year, leaving the right divided. The UMP’s candidate is some local councillor in Bayeux, while there is a much stronger DVD candidacy by the DVD mayor of Bayeux, Patrick Gomont. The PS conceded this seat to the Greens, as in 2002, which is hardly a smart move in a place where CPNT used to be quite important. The EELV-PS candidate faces a dissident candidacy by the DVG CG for Creully. The redistricting probably makes a 1997 a bit harder here (you’d need to check the 1997 result without Ouistreham, which went big to Dumont), and Gomont is a good candidate who can reduce the leftie vote in Bayeux. I would err towards the right here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
6th (Vire/Bocage virois/Bourguébus, UMP): Hollande won 54% of the vote here, in a weird constituency which takes in the canton of Bourguébus (plaine), a lower middle-class suburban canton of Caen and a leftie stronghold, but also Évrecy (wealthier Caen suburbs, 55% Hollande) and parts of the Bocage virois and Bessin, including Vire or Thury-Harcourt and Condé-sur-Noireau. The left is benefiting from suburbanization in Villiers-Bocage and Thury-Harcourt, plus the old working-class city of Condé-sur-Noireau. The bocage virois around Vire remains more rural and conservative, with some old clerical undertones. This seat was traditionally right-wing, until 1997 when the PRG's Alain Tourret narrowly defeated the UDF regional president, René Garrec, with 50.6%. In 2002, however, Tourret lost heavily (45.4% in the runoff) to the UMP's Jean-Yves Cousin, mayor of Vire. Cousin won a rematch in 2007 with 54.8% in the runoff. This year is another matchup between Cousin and Tourret, who is once again backed by the PS. This is certainly Tourret's best chance since 1997, and the big leftie trend here since then helps him out lots.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
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« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2012, 05:13:55 pm »
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With the new redistricting, Manche is as boring as Orne and Calvados are interesting.

Well, in Calvados, it will be very suspenseful.
In the 2nd, I completely agree with you: Thomas is a very strong opponent though the result isn't in doubt. But maybe we'll be surprised and Thomas' anomaly will end this year. Thomas is abit like Jean-Christophe Lagarde in Drancy, in a way Tongue, though, sociologically, it's not the same population.
In the 3rd, Sainte-Thérèse won't make a miracle: your fine analysis of this constituency is damn right: another switch to the left in sight.
In the 5th, I can't believe a second the left could win: it's Bayeux after all... But in 1997, how was it possible ? So, a big, big surprise may occur again, I agree. What makes me more comfortable is that Gomont is a far better candidate for the right than the ageing d'Harcourt back in 97. Plus another constituency stupidly given to the Greens Tongue

Thanks again for these very fine comments.
In the 6th, I would have said: "obvious gain for the left", but Tourret isn't the best candidate, I think; he is a bit old now. Nevertheless, the trend is deep towards the left.
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« Reply #34 on: May 22, 2012, 07:58:52 pm »

Eure
2007: 3 UMP, 1 PS, 1 NC

1st (Evreux-sud/Plaine de Saint-André, UMP): This is a solidly right-wing constituency, mixing the southern and eastern cantons of Evreux (a left-leaning city, ruled by the PCF between 1977 and 2001) with some rural cantons in the Plaine de Saint-André and the Pays d'Ouche. Siegfried who had described the Radicalism of the plain would hardly recognize it today, because a lot of the cantons between Evreux and the Yvelines border have become a kind of weird bastard region mixing Paris and Evreux suburbia. Pacy-sur-Eure's area is more of a well-off, upper middle-class and conservative exurban type, but around Saint-André, Damville and Nonancourt, where the FN does better, we're into some less previleged and more protest-inclined 'periurbain subi' zones. Clearly, we're crossing into "eastern France" at this point, noticeable by the suburbs becoming more right-wing. Sarkozy won 55.8% here, but Marine won 22.9%. The FN won 18.4% and 14.8% in 1997 and 2002 respectively. This was Jean-Louis Debré's seat between 1988 and 2007, one of two seats not to fall to the left in 1997. In 2007, the UMP's Bruno Le Maire easily succeeded his mentor, taking 58.3% in the runoff against Anne Mansouret, perennial candidate of the left. He should hold on this year too, but faces a slightly more threatening rival in the figure of the new PRG mayor of Evreux (since 2008), Michel Champredon, backed by the PS.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

2nd (Evreux-nord/Brionne/Neubourg, UMP): This constituency includes the two other cantons of Evreux, a bit more right-leaning but also reaches in a weird shape to take in Brionne, Le Neubourg and Rugles at opposite ends of this disunited mess. Brionne is part of the southern end of a series of what Americans could describe as 'mill towns' along the Risle, and it is a left-wing/PCF stronghold. Hollande won 51% in the canton, but 58% in the city of Brionne. Le Neubourg is the heart of a wealthy rural region, which is obviously more exurban nowadays, it is very right-wing. Rugles is a rural canton, while the other regions mix old blue-collar towns with newer, lower middle-class exurbia which is prime FN territory and fairly mixed otherwise. Sarko won 52.5% in this constituency, which voted for the PS in the leftslides but has been held by the ex-mayor of Evreux Jean-Pierre Nicolas since 2002. He beat the incumbent with only 50.7% in 2002 and his 53% in 2007 was not anything to write home about. The FN won up to 17% in 1997 (22.3% for Marine), and the PCF retains a presence here. A triangulaire with the FN is possible but not that likely. Nicolas faces a tough contest from Jean-Louis Destans, the PS president of the general council.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

3rd (Lieuvin/Bernay/Pont-Audemer, NC): Sarko also won 52.5% in this seat, held by Hervé Morin (NC) since 1998. While Pont-Audemer and Montfort-sur-Risle are left-leaning working-class areas (Pont-Audemer is a majorish old industrial centre, Montfort-sur-Risle has mill towns along the Risle); the area around Bernay and the Lieuvin in general has a political feel which is conservative, similar to that of Lower Normandy just next door. The left last held this seat between 1971 and 1986, but has not won it under its current boundaries, even in 1988 or 1997. Morin won 61.9% in a 2002 runoff and won by the first round in 2007, with just above 50%. While he will likely need to wait out until June 17 to win again, in part because the FN (Marine 22.7%) could do particularly well (a triangulaire is possible, but not that likely), Morin's opposition is too weak and divided (like in 2007, two PS candidates) for him to be seriously threatened.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

4th (Louviers/Roumois/Vallée de la Seine, PS): This constituency, which gave Hollande 51.3%, has been held by the left - in the person of François Loncle - since 1981 with the exception of 1993-1997. This is an old working-class constituency, covering the industrial and blue-collar cities of Louviers, Alizay and Gaillon in the Eure or Seine valleys, plus the low-income working-class 'new town' of Val-de-Reuil (over 70% for Hollande!). The left has declined in this constituency, likely the victim of suburban and exurban growth from Rouen and Paris. The FN and PCF both have bases in this constituency. In 1997, the FN won 20% and got a triangulaire, but it only won 14.8%. Loncle isn't a particularly strong incumbent at this point, being threatened in 1997, but he won 53.5% 2007, but he's been there long enough that he has a personal vote of kinds (Sarko won the constituency in 2007). He is not threatened this year, the UMP backing a NC regional councillor. There's talk of a triangulaire here, but the FN's gains here since 1997 haven't been as impressive as elsewhere.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Vexin Normand/Les Andelys/Vernon, UMP): The Vexin Normand is a tad isolated from the rest of the Eure, and forms a unique geographic entity. It has been under Parisian influence for a long time, but today it's basically an exurb of Paris filled with people who wake up early and commute to the Centre of the Civilized World. There are some old working-class areas in the valley around Fleury-sur-Andelle, in addition to Gisors, a railroad depot/factory town and PCF stronghold. But the rest is exurban, though Vernon is a growing young middle-class town, with some affluent suburbs. The FN is very strong here, Marine won 24% and was only 3 votes behind Hollande for second place. At the presidential level, the left is getting increasingly weaker here. Sarko won 53%. In 1997, the FN placed second behind the incumbent RPR with 21.3% and this was one of the famous 'triangulaires de la mort', resulting in the PS' victory (certainly boosted by the PCF, which took 17.7%). PS deputy Catherine Picard lost to the then-mayor of Les Andelys, Franck Gilard (UMP) who took 53% in the 2002 runoff and proceeded to win 56.2% in 2007. The left is in a weak spot this year, as the seat was given to EELV but the only main dissident is Anne Mansouret, a perennial loser (and isn't she the mother of DSK's rape victim #4564?). The FG's candidate won't be, like in the past, the popular mayor of Gisors. There's a big chance that the FN will make the runoff in one way or another, but even if it is a triangulaire, the left doesn't seem strong enough for there to be a big chance of a triangulaire de la mort. Besides, Gilard, being a Droite pop tool and all, could feasibly gain a lot of Marine votes - exurban FN voters are much more easier for the UMP to get than pissed off "ploucs" in the Pas-de-Calais. Furthermore, Carl Lang, the anti-Panzergirl/Megret 2.0 far-right village idiot, is running here for the PDF (he's from here, iirc) so he could do pretty well and spoil frontiste chances to make the runoff in one way or another.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
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« Reply #35 on: May 23, 2012, 03:28:33 am »
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Eure has a good suspense in the 2nd: I think Destans, who is highly "visible", will be able to win in the end, because he is also competitive in rural areas. This constituency is reall a small world by itself.

Otherwise, I agree.
The 5th (great comments, Hash Grin) might have been a duel UMP-FN, but Carl Lang (indeed born in Vernon, but who had a long electoral past in Lille and Nord) may prevent it from occurring (though he'll probably grasp only 2 or 3%). We'll see.
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« Reply #36 on: May 23, 2012, 04:49:08 pm »

Eure-et-Loir
2007: 3 UMP, 1 NC
 
1st (Chartres, UMP): This constituency has had a rocky history since 2007. In 2007, the UMP mayor of Chartres won reelection by only 59 votes. In 2008, his election was invalidated and the PS won the ensuing by-election by a comfortable margin. But only a few months later, the PS incumbent saw her election invalidated, and Gorges, fresh from a somewhat surprising reelection in Chartres, won back his old seat in the second by-election. Chartres has a long Socialist history, but the region has shifted to the right (alongside the whole department) as old traditions died out in the face of exurban growth from Paris. Sarko won 52.8%, narrowly losing in Chartres but holding up well in its affluent suburbs and raking in strong performances in the most affluent communities in the cantons of Maintenon and Nogent-le-Roi, both of which are by now very much Parisian suburban sprawl. The left held this seat between 1978 and 1993, notably with the PS mayor of Chartres, Georges Lemoine. Lemoine won again in 1997, but in 2002 he was defeated by the new UMP mayor of Chartres, Jean-Pierre Gorges, who took 54.3% in the runoff. In 2007, hurt by bad transfers from the MoDem (18.2%), Gorges won by only 59 votes (50.1%). In the first 2008 by-election, the PS’ Françoise Vallet won with 55.3%, benefiting again from the strong MoDem, at 18.5%. But a few months later, Gorges, fresh from defeating a PS-MoDem team in the municipals in Chartres, won the second by-election over a divided PS (Lemoine ran as a DVG dissident), but his 50.9% in the runoff was paltry compared to the 47.8% he raked in the first round. Gorges is running again, and faces his unsuccessful PS rival from 2008, David Lebon. This will be another close call. Gorges won narrowly in the fairly leftie climate of fall 2008, and this seat is generally shifting away from the left. But he is not particularly strong…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
2nd (Dreux/Drouais, UMP^): This seat and its main city, Dreux, are names which ought to ring bells to anybody with a good knowledge of recent French political history. The working-class city of Dreux, home to industries and new population of immigrants from North Africa in the 1960-1970s, was a left-wing stronghold until an infamous 1983 local by-election which is recognized as the FN’s first emergence (who said local by-elections were not important?!). That year, in a by-election, the FN list led by Jean-Pierre Stirbois won 16% of the vote and merged with the RPR list to defeat the outgoing PS incumbent. This controversial alliance would end as soon as 1989, but until 1998, the Drouais and the city of Dreux more particularly remained a FN stronghold. This constituency, left-leaning until the 1980s, was won by the RPR in 1988 but in 1989, Stirbois’ widow Marie-France Stirbois won a legislative by-election and became the only FN deputy in that legislature following Yann Piat’s defection. Stirbois was defeated handily in 1993 by the RPR’s Gérard Hamel, but as late as 1997 she made the runoff against Hamel, taking 43.8% (31.4% in the first round) in that duel runoff against him. However, Stirbois left town in 1998 and the local FN collapsed in 2001, unable to run a list in the local elections. It still won 18.5% in 2002, when Hamel crushed the PS with 62.6% in the runoff. In 2007, the FN polling only 7.8%, Hamel won another term with 60.4%. Sarko won 52.3% in the runoff and Marion won 21.8%, but did poorly in Dreux proper. Dreux itself has realigned of the left, Hollande won 63% there. But the right remains strong in the rest of the constituency, a mix of affluent Parisian sprawl (canton of Anet) and exurban/old rural cantons where the FN does well. Hamel is retiring this year, and the UMP is backing the CG for Anet, Olivier Marleix – yes, the son of that scumbag. The PS candidate is a local councillor in Dreux, Gisèle Boullais. Everybody’s favourite moronic douchebag, Dieudonné – who ran an anti-FN campaign here in 1997 and won 7.7% - is running as the “Anti-Zionist” candidate. The FN could make a triangulaire here, but I would bank on a straight UMP-PS fight in the runoff, in which the UMP is probably favoured.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
3rd (Nogent-le-Rotrou/Perche, UMP): This seat, which gave 52.5% to Sarko, covers the fairly blue-collar cities of Lucé and Mainvilliers in Chartres’s suburbs and reaches all the way out to Nogent-le-Rotrou and rural areas of the Perche. While Lucé and Mainvilliers are left-leaning, Nogent, despite a RadSoc tradition still kicking, leans to the right while the rural/exurban areas of the constituency are very right-wing (and also love ‘em some FN, Marion won 21.5% here, over 25% in two cantons). This seat went to the left in the leftslides of 1988 and 1997, but also in a 2003 by-election. In 1997, the PRG mayor of Nogent François Huwart benefited from a triangulaire with the FN, narrowly beating the UDF incumbent while the FN pulled 16.2% in the runoff (but 19.9% in the first round). In 2002, Huwart lost to the guy he had won against in 1997, but this time in a traditional two-way runoff in which the UMP won 53.1% (and the FN 16% in the first round). In one of those traditionally fatal Eure-et-Loir by-elections, Huwart won back his seat in 2003 with 55% in a runoff against the UMP alone. In 2007, things shifted back against Huwart, who lost 53-47 to the UMP’s Laure de la Raudière. This year, the contest opposes Huwart’s son Harold Huwart to Laure de la Raudière. The FN has the same candidate as in the past three elections, and could stage a triangulaire, potentially fatal to the UMP.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
4th (Châteaudun/Beauce, NC): The Beauce, a wealthy countryside region and national wheatbasket, is nowadays far more of a suburban and exurban region for Paris than anything truly rural. It is not really privileged suburbia at this point, but more of a périurbain subi/poorer lower middle-class exurban sprawl of horror type of sprawl. More distant regions of the Perche remain more traditionally rural and more isolated than most of the Beauce in this constituency. Though Châteaudun voted for Hollande, this is largely a conservative bastion. Sarko won 56.5% here, but Marine’s 23.3% was her strongest performances in the department. The exurban horror and rural areas where nobody wants to live is perfectly suited to the modern FN. Indeed, her best cantons were in the Perche and in the Beauce which is closest to Ile-de-France. Politically, this seat has usually been a right-wing stronghold, but in 1997, the Greens, with Marie-Hélène Aubert, benefited from a weakened incumbent who was unpopular with his own party, and won 52.5% in this right-wing bastion. In 2002, however, things normalized as the fluke conditions of 1997 were no more (there was also an airport extension issue at stake in 1997), and the UMP’s Alain Venot won 58.5% in the runoff against Aubert, who had placed third behind the UDF’s Philippe Vigier in the first round. In 2007, with Venot retiring, Vigier (NC) won by the first round with 57.1%. Vigier is running again, facing a EELV regional councillor backed by the PS. The FN could make the triangulaire (or even duel) here, but the FN votes in these areas had a strong Sarkozyst temptation in 2007 and could flow back to the right in a legislative election scenario.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
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« Reply #37 on: May 23, 2012, 07:06:02 pm »

Seine-Maritime
2007: 5 UMP, 5 PS, 2 PCF
 
1st (Rouen, PS)*: This constituency, between 1986 and 2009, was composed only of the city of Rouen. This year it gains the canton of Mont-Saint-Aignan but loses Rouen-6, so a more marginal canton replaces a left-wing stronghold. However, the city of Rouen, the city of Jean Lecanuet and usually a stronghold of moderate centre-right parties, has been shifting left very rapidly. A normal evolution, of course, for a city which is fairly middle-class, educated and with a big population of researchers, young professionals and middle-class families – though Rouen certainly has its share of HLMs and proletarian neighborhoods. In 2008, the PS’ Valérie Fourneyron, who is now a cabinet minister, defeated the incumbent UDF mayor Pierre Albertini by the first round, a year after she had won a seat which had voted for the right even in 1997. Hollande won 56.2%, an excellent result which had him carrying even Lecanuet’s bourgeois canton of Rouen-2 and the traditionally right-wing bourgeois canton of Mont-Saint-Aignan (though only because of the other city in that canton, which is most certainly not bourgeois!). The addition of Mont-Saint-Aignan, whose chef-lieu is an old very affluent and conservative suburb of Rouen, might have been a ploy to turn this seat blue, but you can keep dreaming, especially given that the UMP lost the city of Mont-Saint-Aignan to the PS. Fourneyron will win reelection easily. The UMP is backing a no-name from the NC. In 2007, she had won 55.2% in the runoff, gaining an open seat held by the UDF.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Darnétal/Bois-Guillaume/Bray, UMP)*: This seat expands into rural Bray to englobe Gournay-en-Bray, Argueil and Buchy while losing Mont-Saint-Aignan. It is a composite defended by the former UMP mayor of Mont-Saint-Aignan, Françoise Guégot. Composite is a nice way to describe this thing. Bois-Guillaume-Bihorel is a very affluent bourgeois suburb of Rouen, as are parts of the cantons of Boos and Darnétal. But Darnétal, Saint-Léger-du-Bourg-Denis and parts of Boos are old working-class industrial cities, which still retain a large low-income population of manual workers. The added parts of the Bray, especially out there in Gournay-en-Bray, are solidly conservative but also increasingly distant exurban (Paris/Oise/Rouen etc) territories where the FN does very well. Sarko won 53.6% here (against 51.2% for Guégot in 2007 in the old constituency), in a place where Guégot benefits from the redistricting-induced expansion of her constituency into rural Bray. The FN is strong in parts, but Marine only got 17% and will not likely force a triangulaire. The PS conceded this seat to EELV, and there appears to be no major PS dissidence here. The right will likely win, but a left-wing victory could be possible in the eventuality of the leftslide being a 1981 crush-everything-on-its-path tsunami rather than a more modest 1988-1997 win.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
3rd (Sotteville-lès-Rouen/Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray, PS^)*: This constituency gains Rouen-6. This is solidly left-wing constituency, and a working-class area to this day. Sotteville-lès-Rouen has some refineries, while Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray is a large cité cheminote with a large railroad depot. Politics here are best defined as intra-left: Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray is a PCF stronghold, while the slightly less working-class Sotteville-lès-Rouen has usually tended to be a PS base, especially in recent years. Mélenchon placed a distant second here, with 18.4%. Hollande won 68.3% of the vote in the runoff! The PS has held this seat for ages, but it did lose it in 1993 – to the PCF. Besides that episode, since 1981 it has been held by Pierre Bourguignon, who won uncontested in the runoff in 1988 and 1997 because the PCF, placing second, dropped out of the running. In 2002, he won 64.3% against the UMP and 66.9% in 2007. Bourguignon was defeated for renomination this year, losing to Luce Pane, mayor/CG of Sotteville-lès-Rouen whose suppléant is the mayor/CG of Petit-Quevilly. The main opposition here won’t be the right – the UMP is backing a NC nobody – but rather the FG/PCF, which won 20.6% here in 2007 with Hubert Wulfranc, the mayor/CG of Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray, who is running again this year. Local dynamics indicate that the PS is the favourite. Anyhow…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
4th (Lololand/Grand-Quevilly/Grand-Couronne/Elbeuf, PS)*: This constituency gains Maromme. Above all, this is Lololand – Laurent Fabius’ constituency, held without interruptions (well, save for his hundred stints in government) by Lolo since 1978 (and has been held by the PS since 1958). It is a continuation of the third constituency, though with some areas which are more wealthy suburbs than proletarian dumps. Grand-Quevilly, Grand-Couronne and Elbeuf concentrate heavy industry, such as petrochemicals or manufacturing, while the newly added canton of Maromme/Canteleu consists of two “mill towns” in a valley. The PS dominates over the PCF here, which only finds a stronghold in Grand-Couronne. Elbeuf, historically a place with lots of Alsatian immigrants, is working-class but has always preferred a moderate tone of socialism, hence why the PCF is hardly strong there. Hollande won 63.9% here. Fabius won 67.5% in the 2007 runoff, after getting 49.9% in the first round. Lolo could win easily by the first round, but there’s a chance that the PCF mayor of Grand-Couronne, Patrice Dupray, could do better than in 2007 (7%) while the FN candidate, Nicolas Bay, is not a nobody. Anyhow…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
5th (Packing the Lefties/Vallée de la Seine/Lillebonne etc, PS)*: This seat loses Maromme but gains Lillebonne. This, my friends, is an example of packing. All cantons in here are solidly left-leaning, so Hollande took 56.5% here. This includes refineries around Lillebonne/Notre-Dame-de-Gravenchon, working-class places such as Caudebec-en-Caux (old shipbuilding industry, I think), and some old mill towns/cotton industry towns in the valleys including Duclair but also Notre-Dame-de-Bondeville, Malaunay, Barentin and Pavilly. Sarko only won a handful of affluent communities in the Seine valley area and some rural plateau areas in the Cauchois parts of this packing the lefties country. The PS has long been dominant in this area, where the PCF and FN do wellish but aren’t really “strong”. Christophe Bouillon won this seat in 2007, replacing a PS incumbent who had held on since 1981 – even in 1993. He won 60% in the runoff, under different boundaries naturally. He will win easily again this year in this tailor-made seat. The UMP’s candidate is some nobody.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
6th (Pays de Bray/Dieppe/Eu, notional UMP)* : This is our first ‘weird’ seat resulting from the redistricting. It combines the eliminated 11th and 12th constituencies, keeping all the cantons from the 11th but removing the cantons of Gournay-en-Bray, Argueil, Buchy, Saint-Saens, Bellencombre and Longueville-sur-Scie which were in the old 12th. The result is a composite constituency, uniting the conservative and rural Bray with the more left-wing and working-class Bresle valley and Dieppe. Hollande won 50.9% here, on the back of big wins in the industrialized Bresle valley and the PCF bastion of Dieppe, while Sarko easily dominated in the rural/exurban/poor Bray, where Marine did very well (22.8% overall in the constituency). The fight this year is a beautiful battle royal. First of all, two incumbents in this seat which would have been notionally UMP in 2007: Sandrine Hurel (PS), incumbent in the 11th, who won the seat with 52.2% in 2011, and Michel Lejeune (UMP), incumbent since 2002 in the 12th, who won 52.5% by the first round in 2007 - in a seat which had been held by the PS (Alain Le Vern) in 1993! On top of this matchup comes Sébastien Jumel, the PCF mayor of Dieppe and the young rising star in the party (hence, the PCF's candidate for every elective office imaginable). He had run in the 11th in 2007 and won 20%, and the PCF held the 11th between 1997 and 2002. However, while he is very popular and has a notable local effect around Dieppe, the new constituency is way too big for him to stand a serious chance at beating out the PS for second place (and hence to get the left-wing 'berth' in the runoff). Panzergirl won her best result here, 22.8%, so maybe watch out for the FN. Hurel should probably win.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (kinda GAIN)
 
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« Reply #38 on: May 23, 2012, 07:07:43 pm »

7th (Le Havre-ouest, UMP)*: Compared to the old 7th, it gains Le Havre-7 and Montivilliers while losing Le Havre-4. This constituency includes, except Le Havre-7 and the town of Montivilliers (a lower middle-class suburb of Le Havre), the most affluent and/or bourgeois parts of Le Havre in addition to the chic Victorian seaside suburb of Sainte-Adresse. Hollande won 51.7%, having performed quite well even in the more middle-class parts of Le Havre which were assumed to be fairly solidly right-wing, plus a narrow win in the canton of Montivilliers and dominance in Le Havre-7. The incumbent here is the new UMP mayor of Le Havre, Édouard Philippe, who took this seat when its deputy died in March. He faces the 2007 PS candidate in the seventh, Laurent Logiou (43.6% in the runoff), a regional and local councillor. The FG's candidate is Nathalie Nail, the PCF CG for Le Havre-7. The presidential results indicates that the race might be closer than expected in this seat, which had been the only seat to remain right-wing in 1988. Philippe is likely the favourite, but an upset is not to be ruled out.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
8th (Le Havre-est/Gonfreville-L’Orcher, PCF)*: A tailor-made seat for the PCF, which is a compensation for the loss of one of its two seats with the redistricting (the old 6th constituency being eliminated). This seat takes in the PCF strongholds of the old 6th and 8th constituencies. Compared to the old 8th, it gained Gonfreville-L'Orcher and Le Havre-2 while losing Le Havre-7. This includes both the working-class and low-income neighborhoods of Le Havre proper, plus the very working-class (refineries) town of Gonfreville-L'Orcher, one of the last "true" PCF strongholds in France. A tailor-made seat, thus, for the PCF: 20.1% for Mélenchon, then 64.2% for Hollande. The old incumbent from the 8th, Daniel Paul, in office since 1997, is retiring in favour of the incumbent for the old 6th, Jean-Paul Lecoq, who had managed to gain the old 6th from the UMP in 2007, with 51.1% in the runoff. Lecoq is the PCF mayor of Gonfreville-L'Orcher since 1995. He should very easily, even in the presence of a PS candidate.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
9th (Fécamp/Bolbec/Pays de Caux, UMP)*: This seat loses Montivilliers but gains Saint-Romain-de-Colbosc and Bolbec. Hollande won 51.4% here, doing very well in the working-class canton of Fécamp (56%) and the textile town of Bolbec (canton: 56%). Sarkozy's performance in the rural areas of this cauchois seat were hardly impressive, even if the seat was likely created with the aim of making it a more right-leaning seat. The incumbent is Daniel Fidelin, CG for Montivilliers. He faces a tough contest from Estelle Grelier, a PS MEP and unsuccessful 2007 candidate (46.8% in the runoff). If the left wins this year, I have a hard time seeing this seat not go leftie. Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
10th (Pays de Caux, UMP)*: This seat gains Saint-Saens, Bellencombre and Longueville-sur-Scie. Hollande narrowly won with 50.1% here, doing well in some lower-income and somewhat ruralish cantons along the coast (Fontaine-le-Dun, Cany-Barville, Saint-Valery-en-Caux, Doudeville etc) which are left-leaning for a reason which is still a bit foreign to me - iI think these might be in the industrialized valleys of the Caux, which have always been more left-wing. Sarko generally won the more rural, inland (plateau?) cantons. The defending incumbent is Alfred Trassy-Paillogues (UMP), mayor/CG for Yerville, who, like in 2007, faces the Socialist CG for Fontaine-le-Dun, Dominique Chauvel, who won 44.9% in the runoff back in 2007. I don't know enough about this seat to form a more detailed commentary, but the incumbent likely has a small edge here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
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« Reply #39 on: May 23, 2012, 08:00:03 pm »

Since I'm probably going to vote tomorrow myself, I figure I could preview "my" constituency, where I know a bit more about the local campaign (unlike in the other places):

1st French abroad (Canada-United States, notional UMP): Sarko won 53.6% (turnout 38%) in this constituency, a win due entirely to his landslide with French people in Murica, where Poison Dwarf took 61.3%. He only lost to Hollande in N'awlins, two offices in NYC (I've been told in Williamsburg...), Portland, two out of three offices in San Francisco, Berkeley and Rollingwood (??). On the other hand, Hollande won 55.8% in Canada, losing in Calgary and one office in Toronto. The UMP was originally suppose to run Christine Lagarde here, but the IMF is a way better gig. Instead, the UMP officially endorsed a carpetbagger, Frédéric Lefebvre, an outgoing secretary of state (for tourism iirc) who had been suppleant for Santini in Hauts-de-Seine 10th. Lefebvre is a type A partisan hack, who is pretty much an all-out moron (he also looks like one) who is still really smug and arrogant. He has no political talents to speak of, and got this far only because he's one of Sarko's top ass-lickers, alongside other Mensa Club members like Estrosi or Morano. I think the UMP did this just to piss me off. Fortunately, it also pissed off a lot of right-wingers, who wanted in on the job. His most prominent opponent is Julien Balkany, the brother of Patrick Balkany, a criminal who is mayor and deputy in the Hauts-de-Seine (and a close ally of Sarko, generally). Julien is an idiot who is some trader or investor in New York (hence, a criminal, like the family), whose rhetoric is based on him actually living here. Then there's Antoine Treuille, who is apparently NKM's uncle, and who is the candidate of the "droite modérée et solidaire", who lives in the states and who spammed my inbox for months. The 'ARES' candidate is Philippe Manteau, who is running as a classical liberal (in the economic sense) and talks about free enterprise and quoted Senile Ronald (Reagan) in his mailer a few months ago. Further right you get Gérard Michon, who is a member of the AFE, and who seems to be a crazy old man running some Gaullist campaign which involved, before the runoff, some weird deluded rantings about Hollande being a liar and evil person and a bunch of other anti-PS hate mail. Then there's JJSS's son, Emile Servan-Schreiber, who is running a fairly bland centre-right campaign about "open democracy" and "open economy". For good measure, there is a MoDem candidate, a FN candidate and a LaRouchite.

As I supposed, the UMP started panicking at the sh**tfest going on in the right here, so I recently got a really serious email from Jeff Copé informing me that Fredo was the only legitimate UMP candidate and that everybody should vote for him. I don't know what happened behind the scenes, because Fredo started sending me six zillion emails per day when I had barely heard from him twice in like six months. I guess that he had forgotten what he was doing.

On the left, besides a FG candidate, the PS and EELV back the candidacy of Corinne Narassiguin, a member of the AFE who lives in New York and who has some private business background. Narassiguin ran a very strong and active campaign, which was based a bit on her actually living in North America. The PRG, apparently deciding to be useful for once, ran female candidates in all 11 foreign constituencies, including Stéphanie Bowring, who is half-Newfie.

On the topic of which, CSA apparently did a poll here (n=1717):

Narassiguin (PS-EELV) 35%
Lefebvre (UMP) 19%
Balkany (DVD) 9%
Servan-Schreiber (DVD) 7%
Treuille (DVD) 6%
Granade (MoDem) 4%
Savreux (FN) 4%
Clement (FG-PG) 3%
Michon (DVD) 1%
Manteau (ARES) 1%
Clayette (Pirate) 1%

Guess who I'm going to vote for!

Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup
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« Reply #40 on: May 23, 2012, 08:34:10 pm »
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I would guess PRG, if not, PS-EELV.
If you decided to vote for the right, perhaps Servan-Schreiber, which is the only you seem to not hate.

Perhaps a Pirate protest vote?
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« Reply #41 on: May 23, 2012, 09:34:39 pm »

Back in France...

Charente-Maritime
2007: 3 UMP, 2 PS

1st (La Rochelle, PS^): La Rochelle is a left-wing stronghold, which has both a long Radical and republican (somewhat Protestant-influenced) tradition and history, and demographics which are favourable to the left (urban, mix of industry/administration-social etc/uni). Between 1971 and  1999, La Rochelle was held by Michel Crépeau (PRG), who transformed La Rochelle into a mini-PRG stronghold, still visible even in 2012. Hollande won 55.6% here, a result made more modest by Sarko winning over 60% on l'Île de Ré, an affluent resort island filled with old people. Hollande won all municipalities in the mainland part of the seat, including 62% in La Rochelle. Crépeau held this seat between 1973 and 1999, losing only in 1993. After his death in 1999, he was succeeded in both his offices by Maxime Bono (PS), who won 55.1% in 2007. Bono is best known for being one of Segogo's last remaining loyal supporters. Therefore, when Segogo wanted to run for a seat (and could not run in her old seat), Bono didn't protest too much when she took this seat. However, while Segogo has the backing of Solférino (more because Hollande and Maaaaartine are keen on shutting her up and are ready to acquiesce to her demand of getting the presidency of the Assembly, a nice useless plum post) and of Bono, her carpetbagging of sorts wasn't well received by the local structures all that well. She faces a dissident DVG candidacy from Olivier Falorni, the number one in the Charente-Maritime PS and La Rochelle local councillor. Segogo is likely the favourite on the left, because of her stature and institutional backing. But this race isn't over... it is only over in the aspect that the PS will hold this leftie stronghold easily, and the media narrative about the Segogo-Falorni fight will crush the UMP's Sally Chadjaa, a regional and local councillor. Everybody should be hoping that Segogo loses, of course.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

2nd (Aunis/Rochefort, UMP): This constituency covers La Rochelle's suburbs (including working-class Aytré), parts of the Marais Poitevin, parts of the ruralish Aunis and Rochefort. Hollande won 55% here, doing well in the fairly low-income and working-class city of Rochefort, but also in the more industrialized cantons of Aigrefeuille-d'Aunis and Surgères, suburban La Jarrie and Aytré. The PS gained this seat in 1997 with Bernard Grasset, who is now mayor of Rochefort (since 2001). He defeated long-time UDF incumbent Jean-Guy Branger. In 2002, his retirement allowed Jean-Louis Léonard, the former deputy for the first constituency until 1997, to win back this seat for the right. He won reelection with only 220 votes in 2007, or 50.2%. He goes up against the PS mayor of Aytré, Suzanne Tallard, but there is a dissident DVG candidacy with the PS CG and mayor for La Jarrie. Despite the division of the left, I believe, in this year's climate, that the UMP is likely doomed here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

3rd (Saintonge/Saintes, PS): This constituency's main city is Saintes, a poor and historically working-class Socialist stronghold. Hollande won 54.7% in the constituency, but won 57.5% in Saintes. Rural areas tend to be a bit more marginal, but even then, this is a traditionally republican and anti-clerical region, which has left its mark on the political orientation of some rural cantons in these parts. Hollande won all the cantons in this constituency, like in the second. At the legislative level, no incumbent has won reelection since 1988. The left won it in 1988, 1997 and 2007 but lost it in 1993 and 2002. Xavier de Roux (UDF, UMP) held the seat in 1993 and 2002, but in 2002 he lost to Catherine Quéré, who took 52% in the runoff. This election will be the first since 1988 in which de Roux isn't a candidate, which means the right has no strong contenders besides a NC and UMP local councillors. The left will hold on easily here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Haute-Saintonge/Royan-est, UMP): Sarko won 51.9% here, doing best in the coastal area south of Royan which is an affluent touristy place, attractive for retirees and the like. More rural parts of the Haute-Saintonge (Jonzac etc) are more left-leaning, perhaps because they are poorer, not touristy, more isolated and still maintain the old left-wing anti-clerical traditions quite prevalent in these areas. The left held this seat in 1988 but after losing it in 1993 to Dominique Bussereau, it has failed to regain it. Bussereau won with 51.1% in 1997, but in 2007 he won by the first round with 51.7%. Strong from his stature, the fourth will remain Bussereau's stronghold. The left lacks a strong candidate.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Royan-ouest/Oléron, UMP): The safest seat for the right in this department, Sarko having won 55.1% of the vote here. The core conservative bastions of Royan and the touristy resorts of the coast, plus the island of Oléron, exert strong political influence here. The left has some strength in the northern parts of this constituency, which belong in the Rochefortais rather than in the Royan-Oléron ensemble. The left has never won this seat, held since 1997 by the UMP mayor of Royan, Didier Quentin. Quentin won 53.5% in the first round in 2007. Though Quentin is not extremely popular as mayor right now, he is not seriously threatened. He faces the PRG CG/mayor of Saujon, who is backed by the PS. Quentin will not win by the first round, but he will win fairly comfortably in the runoff in this rock-solid UMP stronghold.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

If I want to do all 577 seats, I will need to do shorther and more concise profiles, thus cutting short discussion of regional voting patterns in these seats; and keeping to big trends and the 2012 races.
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« Reply #42 on: May 23, 2012, 09:40:48 pm »
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If I want to do all 577 seats, I will need to do shorther and more concise profiles, thus cutting short discussion of regional voting patterns in these seats; and keeping to big trends and the 2012 races.

I recommend this: don't shorten your profiles, just do as much as you like. Don't feel that you have to do all 577. I would much rather read detailed profiles on those seats which you think to be most interesting. You're doing us a wonderful favor by writing these - but it should also be enjoyable and interesting for you. Smiley
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« Reply #43 on: May 24, 2012, 01:49:20 am »
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If I want to do all 577 seats, I will need to do shorther and more concise profiles, thus cutting short discussion of regional voting patterns in these seats; and keeping to big trends and the 2012 races.

I recommend this: don't shorten your profiles, just do as much as you like. Don't feel that you have to do all 577. I would much rather read detailed profiles on those seats which you think to be most interesting. You're doing us a wonderful favor by writing these - but it should also be enjoyable and interesting for you. Smiley

I don't agree on one point Wink : it would be a pity not to do all the 577 !

But, of course, you may be (far) shorter on safe or near-safe seats and on constituencies where sociology and boundaries haven't evolved a lot.
Let's concentrate on possible triangulaires, on new constituencies, on areas where demographic and sociological trends ahev shifted or fastened in the recent years.
I guess it's the same conclusion as homely: they are the constituencies that are more interesting for you to write on.
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« Reply #44 on: May 24, 2012, 05:07:18 am »
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I'm with Fab : I want to see the prediction for all 577 constituencies !
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« Reply #45 on: May 24, 2012, 08:23:24 am »
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Who wou;dn't love to see all 577! This has been my daily treat... but i agree, you could quickly skim the safest seats and focus on the more interesting battles, the possible triangulaires, the "leans, toss-ups, non-incumbents/retiress".

fantastic work! and the map that someone has been building is just icing on the cake, who dosen't like a visual representation of this!

Thanks! and keep it up
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« Reply #46 on: May 24, 2012, 08:59:30 am »
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http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/index.asp

At last, all the candidates are available on this fine interactive map.
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« Reply #47 on: May 24, 2012, 04:28:39 pm »

Deux-Sèvres
2007: 3 PS, 1 UMP
 
1st (Niort/Gâtine, PS)*: This seat gains Coulonges-sur-l’Autize, Chamdeniers-Saint-Denis, Mazières-en-Gâtine and Secondigny. Niort is an old Socialist stronghold (it has been governed by the PS since 1957), in good part due to Niort being home to so many insurance mutual (mutuelles d’assurances) which have made the city quite famous and oriented towards the “social economy”. Hollande won 60.9% here, dominating in Niort and its middle-class suburbs. The incumbent here is Geneviève Gaillard, PS mayor of Niort and deputy since 1997. She won 48.6% in the first round in 2007 and 65.2%. The expansion of the seat likely precludes a first round victory, but she will crush the right – whose candidate is a no name – in the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Parthenay/Plaine Poitevine/Ségolinie, PS)*: Gains Parthenay, Thénezay and Menigoute. It is a fairly incoherent mess, uniting some suburbs of Niort with Parthenay (but excluding some its semi-suburban cantons) with the plaine, which includes Ségogo’s stronghold of Melle. Hollande won 59% here, doing very well in the niortais suburbs, little industrial Parthenay and Ségogo’s strongholds in the plaine – which, as an aside for our dear little clueless journalists, does not vote left-wing only because Ségogo is from there – the plaine has a long republican and anti-clerical tradition. Nothing shocking about it being so leftie nowadays, though I’ll admit it has shifted left a lot since the 1980s. This constituency, like the first, includes parts of the old third, which was the right’s last stronghold in the department, its incumbent (now retiring) having held the seat since 1993 and winning it by the first round five years ago. The second’s incumbent is junior minister Delphine Batho, who has turned out to be a surprisingly competent and intelligent despite being a Ségoliniste (yeah, I know, shocking). Since Ségogo couldn’t turf Batho to run in her old seat, Batho is running for reelection. This old second has been held by the left since 1988, even in 1993. Batho won 57.4% in 2007. This year, she faces the NC mayor of Parthenay, backed by the UMP, who in a year like 2007 might make this a close race but who will lose handily in 2012.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Thouars/Bressuire/Bocage Vendéen, PS)*: The old fourth is the new third, it gains Moncoutant, Airvault and Saint-Loup-Lamairé. Hollande won only 51.2% here, because despite dominating in the cité cheminote of Thouars – with 62%, the small industrial town of Cérizay (home to the Heuliez electric car, which I know only because Ségogo’s character in Les Guignols had a funny skit about the Heuliez) and even Bressuire; this constituency still includes the last vestiges of the solidly conservative regions of the bocage, an extension – politically, socially, economically and so forth of the bocage vendéen next door. The north-south divide it more or less created is hardly visible anymore, but still rears its head from time to time. The fourth constituency used to be a right-wing stronghold, until in 2007 the PS’ Jean Grellier narrowly and surprisingly defeated the UDF-UMP incumbent since 1993, Dominique Paillé (best known as Dodo; or the perennial election loser since 2007). Grellier should be safe, he faces the UMP mayor of Moncoutant.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
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« Reply #48 on: May 24, 2012, 04:31:01 pm »

Charente:
2007: 2 PS, 1 DVG, 1 UMP
 
1st (Angoulême, PS)*: The new first, which is really an example of how to do a coherent redistricting, includes all of Angoulême (divided in two in 1986) plus the suburban cantons of Soyaux, La Couronne, Ruelle-sur-Touvre, Le-Gond-Pontouvre. This is a left-wing stronghold: Hollande won 61% here, boosted of course by Angoulême but also by its suburbs – both some low-income deprived places like Soyaux but also its more middle-class suburbs. It is hard to draw comparisons with the 2007 results, because the old first and eliminated fourth constituency have changed considerably since then. This year, Martine Pinville, PS incumbent in the old fourth – a seat she won comfortably in 2007 as a dissident local candidate against the official PS candidate, Malek Boutih, is running in this constituency. There is a chance that she could win by the first round. The UMP took some young woman as its candidate. No other serious candidacies.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Cognacais/Montmorelien, PS)*: The old second gains Chalais, Aubeterre-sur-Drone, Montmoreau-Saint-Cybard, Blanzac-Porcheresse and Villebois-Lavalette. Under new boundaries, Hollande took 54.8%, his tightest result out of the three constituencies. Indeed, this region of Charente - the Cognac/Segonzac area to be specific has always been the most right-leaning region of the department since the 1980s. The wine country south of Cognac, which is quite wealthy, has usually tended to vote for the right, providing the UMP with its only somewhat solid base to speak of in the very leftist Charente. Hollande still won Cognac and Segonzac, but Sarko won his best performances in the Cognacais region. On the other hand, the addition of cantons which lie closer to the Périgord and the Limousin in terms of political traditions has served to weaken the right. The UMP last won the old second in 2002, but in 2007 it lost it to the PS’ Marie-Line Reynaud (who had already won in 1997), who took 52.8% in the runoff. Reynaud faces a local mayor from the UMP and the departmental boss of the MoDem, CG for Segonzac. Against such opposition, the PS faces no trouble holding on here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Confolentais/Ruffecois, PS)*: I’m too lazy to list all the new cantons in here, suffices to say that it includes Confolens and its region, Ruffec and its region, some suburbs of Angoulême which aren’t in the first (cantons of Hiersac, Saint-Amant, La Rochefoucauld). Hollande won 60.5% here, doing best in the Confolentais (the Charente limousine), which is closer to the political traditions of the Limousin than anything else. The Confolentais has always been the most leftie region, with an old but almost dissipated PCF base. The Ruffec area is less impressive in its margins for the left, but still a left-wing country. A mix of old traditions (radicalism, anti-clericalism), economic conditions (poverty, isolation, light industries and resource extraction) and newer factors (WWII resistance stronghold) informs the leftist traditions of this region, like in the Limousin. Jérôme Lambert, related to Mitt’rrand himself, has been the PS deputy since 1988 save for 1993. In 2007, he won 44% in the first round and 61.6% in the runoff. He’s running for reelection and only faces mayor of some kind backed by the UMP. The FG could be a presence (12.2% Mélenchon).
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 


Vienne
2007: 3 PS, 1 NC
 
1st (Poitiers-nord, PS)*: This seat loses Vouneuil-sur-Vienne. The constituency remains a largely urban/suburban constituency, containing the bulk of Poitiers’ northern neighborhood and suburbs. It includes some lower-income cités in Poitiers – though Poitiers overall is a fairly middle-class white-collar city – but also some more middle-class white-collar suburbs, including two communes home to the Futuroscope which has made this region quite famous. Poitiers, like other cities in western France: economically more optimistic, at the centre of a strong and growing urban agglomeration and large populations of public sector employees or salaried middle-classes (and bobos, but people like to think that 95% of those who vote for the left are bobos) have been shifting rapidly towards the left. Since 1997, this seat has been held by Alain Claeys (PS) – mayor of Poitiers since 2008, the sole leftist who survived the Raffarin-induced blue wave in 2002. In 2007, he won 59.1% in the runoff, a bigger margin than in 1997. Hollande took 60.4%. Claeys will have no trouble holding a seat which has been held since 1988, save for 1993, by the PS.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
                       
2nd (Poitiers-sud, PS): Hollande took 59.6% in this constituency, which covers southern Poitiers and its suburban surroundings. Like the first, this urban seat has been shifting leftwards quite rapidly. Hollande won the bulk of the most affluent middle-class suburbs of Poitiers, often by quite comfortable margins. Once again, the mix of populations here – some cadres, salaried middle-classes, generally well-educated, young families and so forth is all favourable to the “modern” PS. These are, like in other parts of France we’ve looked at thus far, the “integrated” suburbs which are well-off, economically optimistic and not as concerned about the day-to-day future as the “marginalized” suburbs and exurbs. Thus, even if the right won here in 1988 and most recently in 2002, it seems impossible for the UMP to win here this year. The PS won with 51.5% in 1997, but in 2007, Catherine Coutelle (PS) defeated a sitting UMP incumbent with 55.1% in the runoff. Coutelle will win handily this year, her UMP opponent is a regional councillor.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Montmorillon/Pays de Brandes, PS)*: This seat gains Vouneuil-sur-Vienne. This seat is increasingly coming under Poitiers’ circle of influence, with cantons like Lusignan, Gençay or Couhé including some suburban communes. However, the rest of the constituency remains composed of more isolated small towns and ruralish areas, some of which are old industrial centres. The left is usually strong in most of these rural cantons, especially in Chauvigny, Lussac-les-Châteaux or L’Isle-Jourdain, for reasons which are quite foreign to me, but likely related to the anti-clerical and Radical traditions in this part of the world, and the influence of Limousin which is perceptible in the far south. Hollande won 55.3% in this seat, which has been held by the PS since 2007, for the first time since 1981. The PS won very narrowly in 2007, with 50.1%. In a slightly better scenario for the right, it could regain this seat. This year, the right seems to lack a strong candidate, allowing PS incumbent Jean-Michel Clément to win reelection.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured
 
4th (Châtellrault/Loudun, NC): The south of the department has shifted left, but the north of the department – included in this constituency – has shifted right. This is also where the FN is strongest (21.3% for Marine). The north, with the major industrial basin of Châtellrault, has usually been more urbanized and industrialized than the south. It is not a very rich region, and it is disadvantaged and marginalized as a sort of “bastard” region which is, with a few exceptions, not entirely urban but not entirely rural. There is a strong exurban influence here, and the population is drawn to surrounding cities and towns: Saumur, Thouars, Poitiers, Châtellrault, Loudun or Tours. The old industries in parts have declined, leaving a fairly low-income exurban/declining rural population of employees and manual workers. Politically, Loudun and the entire north of the department is quite right-wing, while blue-collar Châtellrault is more left-leaning. It was ruled by the PS between 1977 and 2008. Hollande won 53% here. At the legislative level, this is generally UDF country – or rather, Abelin dynasty country. The incumbent here since 1993 is Jean-Pierre Abelin (who had also served 1978-1981), whose father was deputy between 1962 and 1974. Jean-Pierre Abelin has held this seat since 1993, when Edith Cresson (PS) retired. He won by a tiny margin in 1997 but in 2007 he took 56.6%. In 2008, Abelin conquered Châtellrault, his family’s old stronghold between 1959 and 1977, though he only did so because the left was divided in the three-way runoff. Though Hollande’s victory in this constituency with 52.5% makes this race close, Abelin is likely helped by the divisions on the left spawned by the deal with EELV, which ‘gets’ this seat. There is a dissident DVG candidacy by the PS CG for Châtellrault-sud and mayor of Naintré. Abelin will probably win narrowly.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
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« Reply #49 on: May 24, 2012, 05:34:48 pm »
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I completely agree with you on Charente-Maritime (will Royal prevail ? well, now that Mélenchon, Guaino and others have paved the way in far worse manners, her own "parachutage" may be safer than I thought initially) and Seine-Maritime (even the 9th is lost for the right here, for sure... I just hope the 7th will be OK for the UMP, but Edouard Philippe has a personal bonus).

As for Eure-et-Loir, I think Gorges qill be beaten in the 1st. The national mood isn't good for the right and it's always very short here, so... I even expect the 3rd won't have a triangular, because that would mean another loss for the UMP. OMG...

Charente is boredom country...
Deux-Sèvres, well... is boredom country too... when you think about the results of the right here in the 1970s... argh...

In Vienne, it's possible for the left to gain all the four constituencies. But, sure, in the 4th, divisions are high inside the left. I think the Green candidate may prevail, but will she have enough support from her own allies in the second round ? Maybe some socialists will vote for moderate Abelin in the 2nd round... And with a big abstention, why not a second round Abelin-FN ?
It's a fascinating race. I agree with you in the end: slightly lean Abelin.



May I suggest that Indre-et-Loire and all the Picardie are interesting ?
But, of course, Limousin would be quicker to do Wink

One comment on my blog compares you to a mad nerd and to a God Grin
If you don't do the 577 after that... Cheesy
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