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Hashemite
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« on: May 19, 2012, 08:58:47 am »

Since I am apparently good at these kinds of things, and since there seems to be at least passing and superficial interest in this, I decided to waste my free time (and perhaps my long weekend) by putting together a quick profile of every constituency ahead of the legislative elections.
 
I don’t know every other thing about every other politician and local official from Trifouillis-les-Oies, but I do know a superficial amount of stuff about most places and more stuff than a sane person needs to know about other places. And I also think that I know quite a bit about voting patterns in general, at least I probably know more about that than the overpaid journalists. However, these aren’t constituency profiles. If you’re really curious about why a certain constituency votes a certain way, PM me, but I feel like it is better to keep these things short and focused on the actual elections.
 
Basically, the point is to provide a brief overview of the candidates (to be updated as the official list comes out) and my impressions about the race. I’ll go in my traditional geographic order of things, but I can certainly detail certain departments whenever somebody asks.
 
A key of sorts:
* - indicates a constituency which has been modified by the redistricting
^ - retiring incumbent
+ - new seat
In brackets, the name/major city/region of the constituency followed by the incumbent’s party
 
Ratings on the 100% bullsh**t, 0% scientific and rarely accurate (Antonio, how’d I do on my stupid senatorial predictions last year again? Probably awfully) Hashpipe Super-Duper Prediction model:
 
These overall ratings are based on a general left/centre/right-majority/FN axis, rather than partisan labels.
 
-Safe: The chances of another political family winning the seat are nil or extremely low.
-Favoured: The chances of another political family winning the seat are not nil but fairly unlikely
-Lean: Not quite a perfect tossup, one political family has a little edge over another though it is not unfathomable to see the other side winning.
-Tosssup with edge: A tossup race, meaning that two or more political families have a serious chance at winning. However, one family has a marginally better chance of winning in the end and/or has momentum and local dynamics favouring it.
-Pure tossup: The race is too close to call between all sides involved, and there is not even a teeny tiny marginal edge to one family.
 
Finistère
2007: 5 PS, 3 UMP

1st (Quimper, PS): The PS’s Jean-Jacques Urvoas is running for a second term. He is a fairly well-known and popular incumbent in a constituency which actually elected a right-winger in 1997, but which is a solidly left-wing seat now. Hollande took 59% of the vote, and Quimper gave Hollande a higher percentage of the vote than even Brest. The only interesting thing here might come for EELV, which won 10% in 2007 and is fairly well organized in Quimper at a local level. The UMP candidate is a local councillor in Quimper. Next.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Brest-ville, PS)*: An extremely solid PS seat based around the eternal bastion of Finistèrien socialism, Brest, gains a very left-wing canton (Bellevue) of Brest from the 3rd. PS incumbent Patricia Adam is running again, and she will win handily. The UMP, which in 2008 lost its last remaining electoral base (Brest-centre) has conceded the race, by supporting some PCD candidate, which is not to the likings of a longtime leader of the local right who is also running. There is a chance that the PS could win by the first round, but it will probably be settled by a landslide in the runoff. Adam won 55% in 2007, Hollande won 62.6%.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Brest-rural, UMP)*: This contest will probably one of the top marginal contests. The constituency is politically divided between rural areas of Léon which are traditionally conservative, and some working-class parts of Brest (Recouvrance, Saint-Pierre) which are long-time PS strongholds. The PS narrowly won this seat in 1997 (in part due to the right’s division) with François Cuillandre, who became mayor of Brest in 2001, but Cuillandre was defeated in 2002 and again in 2007 by the UMP’s Marguerite Lamour who won a second term with 52.4% in 2007 (the constituency, iirc, voted for Royal). This year, Hollande won no less than 55.9% of the vote.
 
It is definitely winnable for the left, with one little problem: the constituency was given to the Greenies (their candidate is Magali Deval, a local councillor in Quimper) by the PS as part of the deal. This is not Green-country, and Deval is unpopular with the PS because she was apparently a jerk to them in the 2011 cantonals. There is a dissident DVG candidacy by the mayor of Plabennec, who would benefit from the support of some local PS leaders if he ran. One of the main things to look at in the first round would be this left-wing primary, but my hunch is that whichever one of the two candidates comes out on top, the UMP will be hard pressed to hold this seat in the runoff save some particularly bad blood between the two lefties or if there is a general toxicity with the Greenies.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
 
4th (Morlaix/Trégor, PS): This seat, mostly dominated by the solidly and traditionally left-wing Trégor rouge, has been held since 1997 by the new cabinet minister Marylise Lebranchu (PS) who has always been one of this department’s most well-known and visible local PS deputies (notably due to her proximity to Aubry). She won handily in 2007, with 54.4% of the vote in the runoff. She will win reelection in a much pinker political climate this year, but for some reason, the UMP has given the impression that it fancies its chances in this Socialist stronghold. Indeed, the UMP’s candidate is rather high-profile: Agnès Le Brun, MEP and mayor of Morlaix (a PS stronghold which the UMP gained in 2008). The UMP might resist decently, but it stands no real chance. Hollande won 60.7% of the vote.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
5th (Pays Léonard/Brest-est, UMP): The sitting member for the most conservative constituency in the Finistère is Jacques Le Guen, a villepiniste member of the UMP which seems to be on particularly bad terms with Sarkozy and co since 2010. This constituency takes in the most conservative parts of the old clerical-Catholic backwater which was the Léon, but has a growing Socialist base in its southern appendage, which takes in solidly left-leaning Guipavas and Landerneau. Sarkozy won the constituency in 2007 (his only one in the 29) while Le Guen won reelection with 54.8%, after having won by the first round in 2002. The PS had won 45.7% in 1997, but Hollande enjoyed a particularly big swing in his favour in the Léon this year and won no less than 55.4% of the votes in this constituency. This will be a very close race, and it will likely decide whether the left scores a clean sweep of the department. The PS is running the same candidate as in 2007, a local councillor.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
6th (Châteulin/Crozon/Monts-d’Arée, UMP^): André Siegfried had described the bulk of the regions covered in this constituency, save for the rock-ribbed socialist/communist Monts-d’Arée (Carhaix and Huelgoat), as some bastard region with no real political identity. What would he say of a constituency where the retiring UMP incumbent won his first election in 2002 with a 166-vote majority and a second term in 2007 with a 230-vote majority? At any rate, the constituency was far less indecisive in May 2012 – Hollande won 59.3%. Likely reading the writing on the wall, the UMP incumbent bowed out, leaving the UMP with the mayor of Plougastel-Daoulas (itself increasingly left-wing) as its candidate. On the left, the PS candidate who lost in 2007 is running again, but he faces potentially tough competition on the left from the left-regionalist mayor/general councillor of Carhaix, Christian Troadec, who had won 12.4% in 2007 but could do much better in 2012 benefiting from his strong local implantation in Carhaix. The FG could also be a presence in this constituency, which includes the old PCF stronghold of Le Huelgoat where Mélenchon did very well. In the end, the UMP has little chance of retaining this seat.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (GAIN)
 
7th (Pays Bigouden/Douarnenez, PS): The PS gained this seat, which it had won in 1997 but lost in 2002, in 2007. That year, Annick Le Loch won 51% of the vote against the incumbent UMP deputy. This year, Hollande took nearly 59% of the vote in a constituency which is increasingly left-wing. The PS incumbent will easily retain her seat, but the right has an interesting little battle brewing between the AC (ex-MoDem) general councillor for Plogastel-Saint-Germain, Michel Cavenet, and the UMP general councillor for Pont-Croix. Cavenet had run for the MoDem in 2007 and took 19.5%, votes which did not do too much – to say the least – to help the UMP incumbent.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
8th (Concarneau/Quimperlé, PS): Including the old stronghold of Brittany’s unique communisme sardinier, this seat has been a fairly solid PS stronghold since Louis Le Pensec won the seat in 1973, holding it until 2002 when Gilbert Le Bris, then PS mayor of Concarneau, held the seat in a narrow contest. In 2007, Le Bris was handily reelected, ahead by the first round and winning 53.5% in the runoff. Even though the right gained Concarneau when Le Bris retired in 2008, the region is solidly left-wing. Hollande won 59.8% of the vote in the constituency. The division of the right between two candidates – one UMP, one NC, both of low calibre – will not help the right’s chances in a seat which voted PS even in 1993.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
« Last Edit: May 20, 2012, 08:20:25 pm by Sharif Hashemite »Logged


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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2012, 09:34:13 am »

Côtes-d’Armor
2007: 4 PS, 1 UMP
 
1st (Saint-Brieuc, PS^): This seat, which takes in Saint-Brieuc and adjacent cantons (including the former PCF working-class base of Ploufragan) has been held by the PS’ Danielle Bousquet since 1997. Bousquet, who won reelection with 57.7% in 2007, is retiring this year. Her successor will be Michel Lesage, the PS mayor/general councillor of Langueux. The only non-Socialist who could have made this race less boring is Bruno Joncour, the MoDem mayor of Saint-Brieuc who has a strong personal vote (iirc, he won reelection in 2008 by defeating Bousquet, after a fairly flukeish win in 2001). He isn’t running, so the UMP’s candidate – some local councillor in Saint-Brieuc, will be crushed in typical fashion in the second-safest leftie seat in the 22. Hollande won 61.4% of the vote on May 6.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Dinan, PS^): This is Charles Josselin’s old seat, who managed to hang on even in 1993. Since he retired in 2002, Jean Gaubert has been the seat’s holder. He narrowly defeated Michel Vaspart, the UMP mayor of Pleudihen and general councillor, in 2002 and beat Vaspart by a much larger margin in the 2007 runoff (54.7%). The right has some footholds in the constituency, Sarkozy even won the canton of Pléneuf-Val-André on May 6, but Flamby won 54.8% of the vote overall in the constituency that day. Gaubert is retiring, to be succeeded by the PS mayor of Plancoët, while Vaspart hopes that the third time is the charm. Despite the strong local base of the UMP duo (Vaspart’s suppléeant is CG for Pléneuf-Val-André), the left will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Loudéac/Lamballe, UMP): This is the only blue seat in the department, held by Marc Le Fur, the vice-president of the National Assembly, since 2002. Le Fur (UMP) was defeated by the PS’ Didier Chouat in 1997 but beat Chouat easily in 2002 (52.7%). In 2007, he did extremely well in the first round, taking 48%, but won reelection with a mediocre 52% in the second round against Loïc Cauret, the PS mayor of the leftie blue-collar city of Lamballe. Le Fur has some amount of personal appeal in this constituency, which went to Ségogo in 2007 and gave 55.7% to Hollande in 2012. Certainly he played a role in helping the right reconquer a number of cantons in the CG between 2004 and 2011, but it is doubtful whether Le Fur can survive what seems to be a little pink wavelet. In any case, the contest features a rematch between Cauret and Le Fur.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
4th (Guingamp/Trégor-Cornouaille, PS^): This seat, which englobes the quasi-entirety of the Red Belt of central Brittany, is ridiculously left-wing. Hollande won 65.7% of the vote here, taking over 60% in every single canton in this constituency. The seat elected a right-winger in 1993, but prior to that and since then it has been solidly left-wing. The PCF has retained a significant presence – Mélenchon won 15.4% - and won the seat twice, in 1978 and most recently in 1997 with Félix Leyzour. In 2002, Leyzour retired and the PCF’s Gérard Lahellec won only 15.8% of the vote and placed fourth, behind eventual PS winner Marie-Renée Oget and two right-wingers. Oget won 55.8% of the vote in the runoff, and in 2007 she took 63% in the runoff. Lahellec won 12.5% and third place in the first round. This is a solid leftie seat, and hell will freeze over before the right wins it in this climate.
 
However, the retirement of Oget and the PS-EELV deal has opened a nice little fraternal war on the left. This is a constituency conceded by Solférino to the Greenies, who finally nominated a local guy (Michel Balbot) rather than one Guy Hascoët (former Green deputy for the Nord and cabinet minister under Jospin, who has just rediscovered his native region). However, as always, Solférino’s deal with the Greenies didn’t go down well with the local PS. In dissidence, local Socialists are backing the PS mayor of Guingamp, Annie Le Houérou. On the other hand, given the FG’s momentum keeping up for now and Lahellec – who is running for a third shot – still holding a pretty strong base, it would also be foolish to count out the FG. We thus have a nice leftie sh**tfest, with a Greenie who is endorsed by Solférino, a dissident locally implanted Socialist with local PS endorsements, and a Commie who has a solid base. What happens in this case is anyone’s guess, but there is a nice chance that the right will be out by the first round or that the numbers could give a triangulaire. I think whichever one of Balbot, Le Houérou or Lahellec imposes him-herself as the leftie contender will win easily. But I can’t say which one of those three it will be (but my gut is pessimistic about EELV’s real chances).
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left (EELV/DVG/FG-PCF tossup)
 
5th (Lannion/Côte de granit rose/Trégor, PS): This is a solidly left-wing constituency, held by the PS since 1997. In 2007, Corinne Erhel had no trouble in succeeding Alain Gouriou. She won with a big 56.1% in the runoff, and in May Hollande took 59.3%. The UMP has some dwindling strength in coastal resort-type places like Perros-Guirec or Étables-sur-Mer (Sarko won the canton narrowly), but the main city – Lannion – is a PS stronghold (69% for Hollande in the canton) and other coastal cantons such as Plouha, Paimpol or Tréguier are fairly left-leaning nowadays. The right has conceded, the UMP putting up its departmental boss. It appears as if the centrist-Radical mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who had run in 2007 for the MoDem will not be running this year. He would probably have been a more high calibre guy than the UMP’s sacrificial lamb.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2012, 10:36:03 am »
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Great stuff, as always.
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2012, 10:42:51 am »
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Excellent. I will be reading these intently the next few days.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2012, 11:20:18 am »
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I'm speechless... You are gonna cover ALL 577 CONSTITUENCIES ? Shocked Shocked Shocked

Thank you. Just thank you. Cheesy
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Hashemite
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2012, 12:12:13 pm »

Morbihan
2007: 5 UMP, 1 PS
 
1st (Vannes/Golfe du Morbihan, UMP-RS)*: There is a big chance that the guy who holds this seat voted for Hollande. His name is François Goulard, and he is one of the most anti-Sarkozyst of the UMP and a prominent villepiniste – one of the few who actually joined the Villepin clan party. Most recently, Goulard was successful in getting elected to a marginal canton to become president of the CG, but his senatorial candidacy last fall was a fail of epic proportions. Goulard has held this seat since 1997 and he is running for a third term. He won easily in 1997 (55%) and in 2002 (58%) but more narrowly in 2007 (53%). Goulard is running for a fourth term, but the right – just like the left – is divided. On the right, regional and local councillor Gilles Dufeigneux is running as the vaguely centre-right candidate under the AC label. On the left, the PS officially nominated Claude Jahier, a local councillor in Vannes. But there is a much more well-known and higher profile DVG PS dissident, Hervé Pellois, general councillor for Vannes-Est, a local mayor and the PS’ unsuccessful candidate in the last two elections.
 
Sarko still won 51.8% of the vote here. Vannes proper remains pretty right-wing, especially when compared to Lorient or other Breton cities, and the wealthy places/old people places/mini resorts lining the Golfe (beautiful place, but I digress) are also really right-wing (the canton of Sarzeau gave Sarko 59%). The loss of one canton (La-Roche-Bernard) might have made the constituency a tiny bit more leftie, but not by a whole lot. If this turns into a 1981 leftslide, then the PS might have a real shot. For now, I’d say it’s a long shot which is probably not on their target list.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
2nd (Port-Louis/Auray /Quiberon/Belle-Île, UMP): UMP incumbent Michel Grall is running for a second term. The former mayor of Carnac won a fairly close race in 2007, with 52.3% of the vote in the runoff after emerging as the best of three right-wing candidates (the DVD mayor of Quiberon and the MPF CG for Quiberon) in the first round. This is a traditionally right-leaning area, with Quiberon’s peninsula and small resort places/old people towns like Carnac or La Trinité-sur-Mer being very right-wing, but with Port-Louis, Belle-Île and Pluvigner a bit more left-inclined. Grall faces a dissident candidacy from the DVD CG for Auray (Philippe Le Ray), while the PS’ Nathalie Le Magueresse – running for a third time – faces no serious threat from the Greenies or the FG. The PCF mayor of Auray (which is a fairly right-wing place…), now senator, ran in the last three legislative elections and grabbed 10.3% in 2007. Sarko won 50.6% here, and this is a potential gain for the left, though I'm conflicted about how to classify it...
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
3rd (Pontivy, UMP^): The UMP incumbent Gérard Lorgeoux is retiring after two terms. This used to be a fairly safe seat for the right, which easily held on back in 1997 and Lorgeoux won 56% in 2007. Nowadays, it is increasingly marginal. Lorgeoux won 53% in 2007, and Hollande won the constituency with 50.9%, doing especially well in Baud and Pontivy (whose political temperament is closer to that of the western Vannetais than the Vannetais gallo...). Lorgeoux is retiring this year, and the UMP candidate is the CG for Grand-Champ, Yves Bleunven. The PS candidate is the perennial candidate, Jean-Pierre Le Roch, the PS mayor of Pontivy, who has apparently run five times. This is an extremely vulnerable seat, made all the more shaky by the incumbent's retirement.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

4th (Ploërmel/Guer, UMP^)*: This used to be reactionary heartland, whose past deputies including two monarchist Ducs de Rohan (whose castle is in Josselin, and whose latest politician was, of course, a senator until 2008) and which used to give over 70% to the right in the 60s. What is is today is a far cry from what it was back then. Sarko only won 50.4% here, and cantons like Questembert, Allaire, Mauron and even Ploërmel are becoming a bit left-leaning. The addition of the more right-wing canton of La-Roche-Bernard (53% for Sarko) from Goulard's turf was aimed at shoring things up for the right. Indeed, in 2007, the UMP incumbent in this seat since 1973, Loïc Bouvard, won reelection with a bare 50.4% after having won 57% in both 1997 and 2002. A lot of that was due to the local popularity of the PS candidate, Béatrice Le Marre, then the PS CG for Ploërmel and the mayor of that city since 2008. She did particularly well in Ploërmel, which is a bit more right-wing (51% for Sarko, she had won 52% in the 2007 runoff). Bouvard is retiring this year, and Le Marre is not running. We thus have a fairly cool contest shaping up. On the right, the UMP has endorsed none other than François Guéant, suppleant and CR, but above all son of the collabo. Lil Guéant has little political talent of his own (he got his ass handed to him in the 2008 cantonals), but has managed to get so far because of his last name. He isn't extremely popular with the old right-wingers, notably Jean-Luc Bléher, the mayor of Guer who is bitter at Lil Guéant since 2007. Bléher is running as a dissident, endorsed by the local NC but not by the national party. On the left, this constituency is included in the PS-EELV deal, so the PS conceded this seat to the Greenies who in turn conceded it to their sidekick, the local regionalist UDB, whose candidate Paul Molac has the support of the national PS. There is a dissident DVG candidacy from Charles-Edouard Fichet, a local mayor. The MoDem candidate, Michel Guégan, is also a mayor.

I'm at a loss as to what we can expect. Le Marre was an excellent candidate for the PS in 2007, and the left isn't as strong (in terms of candidates) this year, but the right is in a sh**tstorm and Lil Guéant doesn't exactly scream intelligence. I could guess this is vulnerable, and not be too wrong in saying that... but I'll err on the safe side of things.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

5th (Lorient, PS): The old working-class city of Lorient is the left's oldest and safest base in this historically right-wing country. Hollande won no less than 57.7% in this constituency, which also includes the old proletarian PCF stronghold of Lanester (66% Hollande), the more right-wing coastal canton of Ploemeur and Groix. Current defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian held this seat until 2004. The PS incumbent died in office and her successor, Gwendal Rouillard, is running for reelection. In 2007, the PS won easily with 55.3% in the runoff. Rouillard will have no trouble winning reelection. The UMP candidate is Brigitte Mélin, a local official in the wealthy coastal suburb of Lorient of Larmor-Plage.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

6th (Hennebont/Plouay, UMP): This is a weird seat, kind of. Royal won it in 2007, and Hollande won no less than 56.4% here on May 6, yet it reelected the UMP incumbent, Jacques Le Nay, with a solid 54.7% in 2007. Le Nay has been the incumbent here since 1993, when he gained this open PS-held seat. This seat covers the working-class PCF stronghold of Hennebont, the similarly proletarian but PS-leaning Inzinzac-Lochrist and the 'rural' areas of the western Vannetais which form, politically, an extension of the Red Belt's left-wing temperament. Le Nay, has a solid personal vote which is concentrated around his Plouay stronghold, the town he's been mayor of since 1989. In 1997, he narrowly held on with 50.6% against the PS mayor of Inzinzac, but in 2002 he won reelection by the first round and in 2007 he won 49% by the first round (which makes his 54.7% victory a bit less impressive...). He notably won 70% of the vote in Plouay and 64% in the canton of Plouay (but also won the rural cantons and Pont-Scorff, losing only in Hennebont). The PS has a new candidate this year, Philippe Noguès, who is also from Inzinzac. He will need, first, to defeat some fairly solid left-wing competitors: Gérard Perron, the PCF mayor of Hennebont who won 9.8% in 2007 and is solidly implanted in his home commune; and Christian Derrien, the Troadec ally who is CG for Gourin since 2011 (and mayor of Langonnet). Le Nay is running for reelection, after having been defeated in the shocking 2011 senatorial elections (though he still was the best right-wing candidate in that epic fail election).

This will certainly be a tough race. Le Nay is probably the only UMP candidate who stands a fighting chance, and he probably commands a favourite-son vote in Plouay (he won reelection in 2008 with over 64%). But this seat is structurally left-wing, and Le Nay seems to be weakening as an incumbent. I doubt he could win reelection in a 1997 climate at this point.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

« Last Edit: May 19, 2012, 01:16:55 pm by Sharif Hashemite »Logged


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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2012, 12:15:46 pm »
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Many thanks. Really interesting.
So I will have a guide to follow on election night
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2012, 01:39:24 pm »
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very interesting, sharif.

Are you from britanny ? (personnaly, I long lived -my mother is britton- in douarn' )
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2012, 02:04:49 pm »
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Great !!!
I envy you to have the time and the courage to do it...
Thanks a lot !

In Côtes d'Armor, I think Le Fur can make it, as he is very well entrenched.

In Morbihan, the PS has been stupid to let the 4th to the Greens: I think the right will prevail.
But the right will loose the 6th and probably the 3rd.

In Finistère, I agree of course, but not on the 5th: Le Guen is able to campaign well.

I look forward to reading Ille-et-Vilaine: no pure tossup, Hash, eh ? It would be too easy Wink
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2012, 02:18:13 pm »
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We'll see how far you'll get. Wink
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2012, 02:26:05 pm »

Ille-et-Vilaine
2007: 4 PS (incl. 1 DVG), 2 UMP, 1 MoDem (now AC)

1st (Rennes-sud, PS-DVG)*: This seat has lost the canton of Rennes sud-ouest and gained the canton of Bruz, which does not change the state of things much. This is a solidly left-wing seat, held by the PS even in the 1993 epic fail. Hollande won 65% of the vote here, taking 74% in Rennes-Le Blosne and 69% in Rennes-centre sud (respectively a cite populaire canton and a bobo canton). Under different boundaries, the PS incumbent for this area since 1981, Jean-Michel Boucheron, won 65.5% of the vote in the runoff. This year, Boucheron tried to run in the new 8th constituency but got defeated in the primary by another PS incumbent, so backtracked into his old seat. The problem is that the PS had already endorsed Marie-Anne Chapdelaine, a local councillor. Boucheron is thus running for reelection as a dissident. The Greens, who are strong in centre sud, should make a presence, they already won 5.2% in 2007. Which one of the incumbent dissident or the official solferiniste will win is something I'm not too sure about, given that both candidates seem strong (Chapdelaine's suppleant is the PS CG for Bruz). At any rate, it is still a safe left-wing seat. The UMP has endorsed the MoDem/AC mayor of Chantepie (a fairly bland suburb which is very leftie), Grégoire Le Blond, who won 11.4% of the vote in 2007 and won election in leftie Chantepie in 2008 thanks to the division of the right. The MoDem itself seems to be in the crapper throughout the department, with a huge internal civil war going on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

2nd (Elbridge Gerry Memorial Constituency/Rennes-est/Cesson/Liffré, PS^)*: The old second has been turned around sideways by Marleix, losing the cantons of Combourg, Saint-Aubin-d'Aubigné, Tinteniac, Rennes-centre and Rennes-nord gaining instead Cesson, Liffré and Rennes-est. The result is something which is a dictionary definition of a gerrymander, perhaps aimed at shoring up the two right-wing constituencies in the east of the department. Hollande won 59.7% of the vote here, taking over 60% in Rennes and Liffré. This is largely a constituency of Rennes' middle-class/well-off suburbs; Cesson, Betton and Saint-Grégoire being quite affluent suburbs. Hédé, the ugly northern appendage of this monstrosity, is part of a belt in central north-western Ille-et-Vilaine (along with Tinteniac and Saint-Aubin-d'Aubigne) which has an older leftie republican/RadSoc tradition. In the vastly different boundaries in 2007, the PS won 56% in the runoff. The PS candidate here is new, Nathalie Apperé, a local councillor in Rennes. The UMP has a random sacrificial lamb. The PS will win very easily here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

3rd (a little bit of everything, PS^)*: This constituency has also changed a lot, losing Mordelles and Rennes-centre ouest, gaining Tinteniac and Combourg. This has shifted the PS incumbent, Marcel Rogemont, into the 8th constituency. In its new shape, Hollande took 56.9% on May 6. Save for the canton of Saint-Méen-le-Grand (which includes a commune with a great name...) which is more rural (and still conservative) and the canton of Combourg, more distant from Rennes; this is a largely suburban area, not as affluent as the parts included in the 2nd, but still not too shabby (Pacé, one of the main cities here, is fairly affluent and used to be more right-leaning). The left is, therefore, dominant. The PS candidate is François André, CG for Rennes nord-ouest (and his suppleant is the PS CG for Combourg). The UMP candidate might have had a chance in a way better year, but Philippe Rouault, who was the deputy between 2002 and 2007, has been on the way out since his 2007 defeat. No contest again, PS wins. BTW, the DLR candidate has an unfortunate name, for Anglos: Gaylord Odic (though a last name with 'Urdic' would have been better)
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Redon, PS)*: This constituency has lost the canton of Bruz. Hollande won 55.8% in this constituency whose largest city is Redon, but whose other cantons (notably Guichen) are under the growing influence of Rennes and are a kind of weird hybrid between dying rural culture and middle-class suburbanites. The "suburban" cantons are not very affluent or highly educated as the older 'burbs, being more lower middle-class exurban though not of a exurban-FN voting type. This has, of course, helped the left, which gained Alain Madelin's old seat in 2007 (which had become marginal in 2002) with Jean-René Marsac (PS) winning 52.9% in the runoff. Redon, Guichen and Le-Sel are the left's strongest cantons. Marsac is running for reelection, while the UMP is supporting a local mayor (and former CG for the canton of Redon) Dominique Julaud (AC). This seat is trending hard left, and Marsac will have no trouble winning reelection.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Vitré, UMP^)*: Besides 1968-1973, this seat has been the personal stronghold of the centre-right Méhaignerie family. Pierre Méhaignerie, one of the UMP's most prominent ex-CDS centrists, is retiring after having been in office since 1973. Méhaignerie had won reelection by the first round in 2007, with 52.7%. This seat has becoming more right-wing after Marleix amputated it of Rennes-est and Cesson, two cantons which had the disadvantage of voting incorrectly. All in all, the seat remains centered around Vitré and includes most of the extremely conservative eastern confines of Ille-et-Vilaine, which is old reactionary/chouan/Catho country. This was Sarko's best constituency in Brittany, taking it with 53.4% (which is still a pathetic result). The cantons of Chateaugiron and Janzé have become more leftie as they become part of Rennes' suburban belt. Vitré and the rural cantons (Retiers, La Guerche, Argentre-du-Plessis) remain very conservative. The UMP's candidate is Isabelle Le Callenec, an aide to Méhaignerie. She faces a MoDem and Radical candidate. It is pretty unlikely she will win by the first round, but she remains the favourite in the runoff against PS candidate Anne-Laure Loray.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

6th (Fougères, AC)*: This constituency, which has lost Liffré but gained Saint-Aubin-d'Aubigné and Pleine-Fougères, made headlines in 2007 when MoDem candidate Thierry Benoit, fresh from beating a divided left in the first round, defeated the UMP incumbent Marie-Thérèse Boisseau (in office since 1993) with 55.1% of the vote, thanks in good part to left-wing voters. A scenario not quite unlike the 1993 one, when Boisseau (UDF) had toppled long-time Gaullist deputy Michel Cointat. Benoit has proven to be a fairly right-wing deputy, having left the MoDem to align with the AC which is a bit less hostile to the outgoing majority. This year, he is the uncontested candidate of the right, endorsed by the UMP. However, Hollande won 50.9% in this constituency, which used to be very conservative, but which is now increasingly marginal. The left, however, sees its chances of an historic conquest in this region of the department complicated by division. As in 2002 and 2007, the PS has no candidate and is backing EELV's Agathe Remoué. She faces a tough challenge from Louis Feuvrier, the centre-left/DVG mayor of the blue-collar city of Fougères who had been the left's candidate in 1993. Feuvrier benefits from a strong local base which EELV does not really have, and I would edge towards pinning him as the top left-wing candidate. The runoff will be very closely fought, but Benoit might have a tiny edge.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

7th (Saint-Malo/Côte d'Émeraude, DVD^)*: This seat has lost the canton of Pleine-Fougères. The incumbent deputy and mayor of Saint-Malo, René Couanau (who quit the UMP last year) is retiring after holding this fairly conservative constituency since 1988. In 2007, he won the runoff very easily, with 57% of the vote (but he had won by the first round in 2002). He has been hit by voter fatigue in recent years, so he is handing his hat over to Gilles Lurton, his right-hand man and the newly-elected CG for Saint-Malo Sud (and his suppleant is CG for Dol-de-Bretagne). He faces a fraternal first round battle with the UMP's official candidate, Nicolas Belloir, who appears much weaker than Lurton. To complicate things a bit further, there is a centrist candidacy from Jean-Francis Richeux (AC), CG for Châteauneuf-d'Ille-et-Vilaine and 2007 MoDem candidate (winning 15.1%).
Sarko won 50.4% in this constituency, losing the city of Saint-Malo narrowly but holding up in the more right-leaning cantons of Dinard and Cancale. If the left has a shot (it kind of does), it is definitely not with its perennial epic fail of a candidate since 1993, Isabelle Thomas, an old student leader and an untalented party hack. The left stands a much better chance if Michel Penhoët, the PRG mayor of Saint-Lunaire and CG for Dinard since 2008, is able to place ahead of Thomas in the first round. Penhoët was able to win the wealthy right-wing canton of Dinard back in 2008 (due to right-wing divisions, in part) and is a much stronger candidate than Thomas, whose mission to become an MEP failed in 2009.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

8th (Rennes-ouest/Mordelles)+: This is a new constituency, made up of the cantons of Mordelles, Rennes-sud-ouest (including Saint-Jacques-de-la-Lande), Rennes-centre-ouest, Rennes-centre and Rennes-nord. The incumbent in the third constituency (Marcel Rogemont) has found his canton moved to this constituency, so he is running for reelection in this constituency, after having defeated Boucheron in a primary. The new seat is very left-wing, including parts of Rennes and Mordelles which is a middle-class suburban area (and is also leftie). Hollande won 63.4% here. The UMP sacrificial lamb is Bruno Chavanat, the leader of the futile right-wing opposition in Rennes. Rogemont will win very easily in any case.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2012, 02:48:13 pm »
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the canton of Saint-Méen-le-Grand (which includes a commune with a great name...) which is more rural
Huh It's Saint-Onen-la-Chapelle, not Saint-Onan.
Oh wait, that's not what you meant...
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2012, 02:54:01 pm »
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the canton of Saint-Méen-le-Grand (which includes a commune with a great name...) which is more rural
Huh It's Saint-Onen-la-Chapelle, not Saint-Onan.
Oh wait, that's not what you meant...

Gaël is a small commune which has fought against a lbig litter depository for a long time now Grin
Close to the Brocéliande forest !
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2012, 02:58:25 pm »
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Ille-et-Vilaine, 7th: I agree with you, as the left is even worse than the right here Tongue

Ille-et-Vilaine, 6th: well the right is indeed favoured, but Feuvrier is a very good candidate. Too bad he has this stupidity again of a Green candidate that no one knows: if the left isn't able to win, well, really, they are STUPIDLY STUPID, because Benoît isn't very well entrenched and the fact that many centrists are allied to the right isn't very well seen. So, if the Grren is crushed in the 1st round, Feuvrier will win in the 2nd.

I was in the old 6th and now I'm in the 2nd: imagine how sad I am currently Sad
My vote MIGHT have been decisive this year Tongue Sad
After all, I hate Marleix too, you know, Hash Wink
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2012, 06:15:09 pm »
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What does AC stand for?
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2012, 06:30:56 pm »
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What does AC stand for?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrist_Alliance
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2012, 09:50:17 am »

Loire-Atlantique
2007: 5 PS, 3 UMP, 1 Green, 1 NC

1st (Nantes-Orvault, EELV): In 2007, benefiting a lot from the absence of a PS candidate, François de Rugy (Green) defeated UMP incumbent Jean-Pierre Le Ridant with 52% of the runoff. This seat's composition is unchanged, but it is increasingly unwinnable for the right. Hollande won 56.7% here, including 56% in the affluent middle-class suburb of Orvault and 68% in the canton of Nantes-7 (a low-income neighborhood). de Rugy, who failed to topple the incumbent centre-right mayor of Orvault in 2008, is running for reelection and will win handily. The UMP sacrificial lamb is François Pinte, the departmental leader and unsuccessful candidate in the second constituency in 2002 and 2007.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

2nd (Nantes-centre et sud, PS): The other nantais constituency is also looking increasingly impregnable for the right, which had won it in 1988. PS incumbent Marie-Françoise Clergeau won reelection by a big margin in 2007, 54.8%, larger than her original margin in 1997. Hollande took 60% of the vote, propelled by bobos in the downtown core and more downtrodden low-income or lower middle-class neighborhoods. The right does have a solid base in the old bourgeois 4th canton, but that's it. Clergeau will glide to reelection easily, facing token opposition from the UMP's candidate, Laurence Garnier, a local councillor. She could win by the first round, but that will likely be denied by a solid result by EELV and the FG.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

3rd (Saint-Herblain, PS): Prime Minister Ayrault's seat is one of the safest seats for the PS in the entire country. In 2007, he won 49.8% in the first round and 66.2% in the runoff. In 2002, he won reelection by the first round. And on May 6, Hollande took 65.2%. This constituency combines poor social housing tracts and low-income parts of Nantes with the old industrial conglomeration on the banks of the Loire, in this case the cities of Indre and Saint-Herblain. This isn't really proletarian country at this point, more lower-income employees and the like. The UMP has given up and endorsed a no-name (the wife of the former deputy for the 1st constituency). Ayrault will win over 50% of the votes by the first round, and provided abstention is low enough, will be elected outright on June 10.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Rezé, PS): This is another extremely solid leftie seat, represented by Dominique Raimbourg (PS) since 2008. Raimbourg won 44.4% in the first round and 64.5% in the runoff. Hollande took 64.5% too in this constituency, which is centered around the old working-class suburb of Rezé but also includes the more affluent St-Sebastien-sur-Loire and a part of Nantes. Again, there's no contest here. Raimbourg has a good chance of winning by the first round as well.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Carquefou/La-Chapelle-sur-Erdre, PS)*: The election of a PS deputy, Michel Ménard, here in 2007 was a bit of an historic feat in a conservative constituency. Even in 1997, the right had won 53% in the runoff. But this region is changing, the result of the leftization associated with the suburban growth in western Nantes. Carqefou and La-Chapelle-sur-Erdre, whose cantons include some professional, educated middle-class suburbs of Nantes, are increasingly leftie. The constituency has been restructured and made more left-wing: it loses Ancenis, Varade, Riaillé and Saint-Mars-la-Jaille, but gains Nort-sur-Erdre. Hollande won 56.3% here, the inclusion of Nantes-8 in this constituency (63.6%) proving quite helpful. Ménard will win easily, but the right doesn't have a bad candidate: Maurice Perrion, AC CG for Ligné and 2007 MoDem candidate (14.2%).
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

6th (Chateaubriant/Ancenis, NC)*: This constituency loses Nort-sur-Erdre but expands to gobble up Saint-Nicolas-de-Redon, Ancenis, Varade, Riaillé and Saint-Mars-la-Jaille. Historically, this region - especially around Chateaubriant - has been a very conservative region. Since 1993, Michel Hunault (RPR, then UMP and now NC) has been reelected without excessive trouble, by the first round in 2002 but with a fairly "little" 53.9% in 2007. Before that, his father, Xavier Hunault had represented the area since 1962. However, Hollande having won 52.4% in the constituency (performing best in Blain and Saint-Nicolas-de-Redon, which have been leftie for quite some time, and under the influence of Nantes; but also winning in Ancenis, Chateaubriant and Hunault's home base of Derval) will give Hunault his toughest run yet. The PS candidate, Yves Daniel, is the mayor of Mouais and the CG for Derval (which Hunault represented for a while in the CG). But Hunault is a strong local candidate and he seems to have a strong personal vote. In 2004, his dissident centre-right list in the Euros won 26.7% in the constituency (a close second behind the PS, reducing the UMP to 5.5%) - against 6.3% for his list in the department. Hunault can probably perform better here than Sarko did, but it will certainly be a tough race.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

7th (Guérande/La Baule/Pays de Brière, UMP)*: This constituency has lost the left-leaning canton of Saint-Nicolas-de-Redon, shifting it to the right a bit and giving more weight to the core right-wing strongholds in this constituency which gave 51.5%. While the Brière region (the Saint-Nazaire backcountry, and a truly dreary place) is working-class and very left-wing with 63% for Hollande in the canton of Pontchateau and 58% in Saint-Gildas-des-Bois; the famed coastal resort towns of La Baule, Pornichet and Le Croisic (plus the city of Guérande, which is really nice) are quite conservative. This constituency elected a Socialist, René Leroux, in 1997 (a real surprise back then, after having been Olivier Guichard's home turf), but since 2002 it has been represented by the UMP mayor of Guérande, Christophe Priou, who won a second term with 57.9% in the runoff in 2007 (and 49.9% in the first round). His reelection will be a bit harder this year for Priou, who faces a local councillor, Hélène Chailler (PS). However, he remains favoured, given the redistricting's effects.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

8th (Saint-Nazaire/Montoire, PS): This very left-wing constituency (65.9% Hollande) is centered around the industrial working-class city of Saint-Nazaire (which isn't *as* proletarian as people think, but is still a fairly low-income and dreary city) and its very proletarian and uber-leftie hinterland along the Loire (Montoire-de-Bretagne, a PCF stronghold). The area around Savenay is a more middle-class area under Nantes' greater influence, but the constituency remains under the double-dominance of Montoire and Saint-Nazaire. Hollande won between 63% and 70% in Saint-Nazaire's three cantons and nearly 70% in Montoire. The PS incumbent Marie-Odile Bouillé, in office since 2007, won in 2007 with 64.3%. In 1997, the right didn't even make the runoff in the fraternal fight between then-PS incumbent Claude Evin and the MDC mayor of Saint-Nazaire, Joel-Guy Batteux. Bouillé will, shockingly, glide to reelection, but a strong FG performance in a place where Melenchon won 15.4% will prevent a first round reelection.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Pays de Retz/Pornic, UMP): The Pays de Retz used to be a right-wing stronghold until not too long ago, but Sarko only won 50.2% in this constituency and in 2007, the UMP mayor of Pornic Philippe Boënnec won only 53% in the runoff (a smaller result than in 1997). Indeed, though the coastal resort town of Pornic and places such as Machecoul remain quite right-wing, the area is attracting some less affluent middle-class suburbanites from Nantes. Hollande won 61% in the canton du Pellerin, part of which is part of Nantes' industrialized western suburbs; and 55% in Paimboeuf, which is a Saint-Nazaire suburb on the other side of the Loire. The PS mayor of Saint-Philbert-de-Grand-Lieu, Monique Rabin, is running for a third time and she is a strong candidate. The race will be pretty tough, and a lot hinges on whether or not Rabin can do better in her native canton (Saint-Philbert-de-Grand-Lieu, a more or less right-wing place) than in 2007. I would classify this as another tossup in which the UMP might be starting off with a tiny edge.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

10th (Vertou/Clisson/Vignoble Nantais, UMP^): The Vignoble has usually been a conservative bastion, even in 2007 the UMP's Serge Poignant won 56.9% in the runoff. But, again, things are changing. Hollande won 51.4% in this constituency, the result of the leftization of the affluent middle-class suburb of Vertou and its surroundings. Clisson and the confines of the Vignoble remain more right-leaning, but not by all that much - Hollande won 49.6% in the canton of Clisson. The UMP incumbent Serge Poignant is retiring after four terms, leaving an open seat and an even tougher fight for the right. The PS candidate is a local mayor, Sophie Errante. The UMP is running the mayor of Vertou, Laurent Dejoie (his father, Luc Dejoie, was a RPR Senator and mayor of Vertou between 1971 and 1995). I'm conflicted about this race. Dejoie is a strong candidate and he could perform better in Vertou than Sarko, but at the same time the seat is becoming increasingly leftie. Call me a broken record or a wuss, but I'll err safe and save face by a pure tossup call.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2012, 11:04:28 am »
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This isn't really proletarian country at this point

It is if the locals think it is Smiley
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2012, 05:09:08 pm »

Vendée
2007: 2 UMP, 1 NC, 1 DVD, 1 MPF

1st (La Roche-nord/Challans, NC^): In 1986, Pasqua came up with a fine gerrymander which divided the two overpopulated cantons of the old republican city of La Roche-sur-Yon and placed the northern canton in this constituency, which takes in rural cantons in the bocage and Challans. Hollande won 57% in La Roche-nord, but lost heavily in all other cantons including Challans (59.8% Sarko), the old home turf of the Baudry d'Asson family (I can't talk about this department and not mentioned them). Sarko won 53.5% in the constituency as a whole. The incumbent here since 1988 is Jean-Luc Préel (NC, ex-UDF) who won reelection in 2007 with 56.9%. In 2007, the aging incumbent faced a very tough first round challenge from Alain Leboeuf, the DVD mayor and CG of Rocheservière. Leboeuf won 27.9% in the first round, placing second, ahead of the PS, but finally backed out to prevent a fatal three-way runoff. This year, Leboeuf's second candidacy - which received the backing of the big boss of the department - the UMP (ex-MPF) president of the CG, Bruno Retailleau, compelled Préel  to retire from a race which would surely have been his last. The right enters this contest united behind Leboeuf, who has the UMP's support. The PS does not have a solid chance here and its candidate, Martine Chantecaille, a local councillor in La Roche, is not really a strong one.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

2nd (La Roche-sud/Talmont, UMP): This is the second constituency covering La Roche (the southern canton, grossly overpopulated, 57% Hollande), this one made right-leaning by the useful addition of the coastal canton of Talmont-Saint-Hilaire (and Moutiers-les-Mauxfaits which has a coastal strip) which is full of old wealthy retirees who vote for the right. Since 1997 this seat has been held by Dominique Caillaud (UMP) who was originally elected in 1997 as a UDF dissident backed by de Villiers, but since 2002 a bland UMPer. He won reelection in 2007 by a fairly tight margin, 54.8% in the runoff against PS candidate Sylviane Bulteau, who became CG for La Roche-sud back in 2008. Sarko won here with 52%, but of the two yonnais constituencies, this is the one where the PS has the biggest hopes. Sylviane Bulteau is running again, her third shot, but since 2008 she has a solid base as CG in La Roche-sud. On the right, Caillaud could be hurt by the fourth successive candidacy of local councillor Raoul Mestre (he may be related to a former deputy for this seat), who ran for the MoDem in 2007 (10.7%) but is running as a DVD this year. I expect Caillaud to win, by a very tight margin (51%) or so, but in case of a 1981-wave, Bulteau can probably win here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

3rd (Les Sables/Côte de Lumière, UMP): This is a very solid right-wing seat, centered around the affluent coastal resort of Les Sables-d'Olonne and stretching up and down the Côte de Lumière of the Vendée to englobe most of the department's famous coastal resort communities, plus the two islands. Sarkozy won 60.2% of the vote here, and the right (usually the Gaullists, strong in Les Sables) has held this seat with huge majorities for ages. The UMP mayor of Les Sables, Louis Guédon, has held this seat since 1993. In 2002 and 2007, he won by the first round, taking 52.7% in 2007. The left is not risking much here by officially conceding the seat to the Greenies, in the person of Claudine Goichon, but there is a strong dissident DVG candidacy here led by Jacques Fraisse, the PS mayor of Saint-Hilaire-de-Riez who ran and lost in 1997 and 2002. But the right is divided as well. Guédon is an old man (like most of his constituents), so he faces a dissident candidacy from an ambitious youngie, the DVD (ex-MPF) mayor of Olonne-sur-Mer, Yannick Moreau, running alongside the ex-MPF CG for Saint-Gilles-Croix-de-Vie. Guédon will probably win a fifth term, but Moreau could prove a strong candidate. The left? Can't win here, as the LibDem bar charts would tell us.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right (our first such seat thus far!)

4th (Montaigu/Mortagne/Haut-Bocage, MPF): This constituency used to be one of the most right-wing in the whole of France, with the right usually taking 70-80% of the vote here until not too long ago. But above that, it is also Philippe de Villiers' old seat, having held it between 1988 and 2005 (with a 94-97 break). He was succeeded in a 2005 by-election by Véronique Besse, who won over 70% in that by-election in the first round and won reelection in 2007 with 61% by the first round. Sarko only won 59.3% here, and this constituency isn't really the reactionary chouan bastion of yesteryears. Montaigu is tightening up as it becomes a bit more suburban (Nantes and Cholet). The MPF, finally, is dwindling into total irrelevance as all its big names leave the sinking ship and the party finds itself without a leader and a direction. But Besse, who is once again backed by the UMP, will win reelection easily, potentially by the first round. A Radical candidate could make stuff a bit more difficult, but the PS candidate (a regional councillor), Maï Haeffelin, will be crushed.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Fontenay-le-Comte/Plaine et marais, MPF): This constituency, which includes most of the old republican strongholds of the plaine and marais, is the most left-wing constituency in the department. Sarko won narrowly with 51.6% here, losing in Fontenay and most of the plaine/marais cantons but winning thanks to a huge win in the very conservative Chataigneraie (a bocage canton) and a closer win in Lucon. This was the only constituency in the department to ever elect a Socialist, in 1981 and 1988, but since 1993 it has been held by the right - until 2008 by Joël Sarlot (DVD, ex-UDF), a fairly useless drone who nonetheless managed impressive reelections in 2002 and 2007 - by the first round in both cases, with about 52%. In 2008, Sarlot's election was invalidated and he was replaced in a by-election by Dominique Souchet, a MPF general councillor. In 1997, Sarlot had won a narrow second term with 52% in the runoff against Jean-Claude Remaud, the ex-PS (now PRG) mayor of Fontenay-le-Comte until 2008.
We have a fun heavy three-way fight this year. Sarlot wants his old seat back, and in this he has the backing of the UMP. His suppleant is Valentin Josse, the DVD CG for La Chataingneraie. However, Souchet, despite not having the UMP's backing, is running for reelection. His suppleant is the former CG for Maillezais. On the left, the PS candidate is Hugues Fourage, the new mayor of Fontenay-le-Comte, running in duo with the PS CG for Chaille-les-Marais. This year, Remaud will not be running for a fifth successive failed candidacy. Most people appear to be betting either on Sarlot or Souchet (I would tend towards the former) but it would be a mistake to count the PS (who has some strong candidates) out in this marginal constituency. The PS certainly faces an uphill battle here, though.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right (or tossup with right edge)
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2012, 08:20:00 pm »

Maine-et-Loire
2007: 5 UMP, 1 PS, 1 CD

1st (Angers-centre/est/nord-est, UMP^): The city of Angers is split into four different constituencies, this one takes in the centre, est and nord-est cantons in addition to Tiercé and Chateauneuf-sur-Sarthe. This has usually tended to be a more right-leaning constituency, the more leftist leanings of parts of Angers (though the canton of Angers-centre includes the city's most bourgeois, and thus conservative, parts) being more than compensated by the conservatism found in the more rural cantons of Tiercé and Chateauneuf-sur-Sarthe. This year, Hollande narrowly won the constituency with 51.6%, taking 56% in Angers east and north-east (the east cantons includes the fairly working-class suburb of Saint-Barthélemy-d'Anjou, 56.5% for Hollande) and even doing quite well in suburbanizing Tiercé. The seat has been the preserve of the Narquin/Bachelot family since 1968 (Jean Narquin, Gaullist, from 68 to 88; and his daughter Roselyne Bachelot since then). Roro may be a moron, but her family is a household name in these parts. She won 54.7% in the runoff in 2007, and 58.3% in 2002. This year, she is retiring and the UMP's replacement is her suppleant (thus kinda-incumbent) Paul Jeanneteau. The PS, as in 2007, will be represented by Angers city councillor Luc Belot, who has worked the ground well since his 2007 defeat. A weird Cap21-DVG ticket led by a former Socialist and whose suppleant is the CG for Anger-est might register a good result in the first round. This is certainly one of the PS' top targets in this department and is quite winnable.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

2nd (Angers-Trélazé/Ponts-de-Cé, PS): The PS had conquered this seat in 2007, an historic first for the left in old ultra-conservative Anjou. This constituency includes the southern canton of Angers plus that of Trélazé, a very working-class suburb of Angers (slate quarries) which is the most left-wing canton in the Maine-et-Loire (the city was 68% Hollande). Hollande won 53.8% in this seat, boosted not only by Trélazé and Angers (Angers-sud was 59% for Hollande, that cantons includes a few cités) but also by some middle-class suburbs of Angers in the Ponts-de-Cé area on the banks of the river. The right won this seat in 1997, but in 2007, Marc Goua, the PS mayor of Trélazé, took 52.1% in the runoff against the UMP incumbent. Goua is safe, the UMP is not going after this seat aggressively by the looks of it (a PCD candidate endorsed by the UMP).
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

3rd (Saumur-nord/Baugeois), UMP): The Baugeois used to be the republican stronghold in royalist Anjou, but the old political divisions in this region have been erased quite considerably. While still retaining a different political character, the Baugeois region is basically right-wing now. Sarkozy won 53.4% in this constituency, though Hollande had the upper hand in two cantons which are in Angers'
suburban circle of influence. Rural cantons being quite right-wing, the right usually has the upper hand. Christian Martin (UDF) had a close call in 1997, winning with only 51.5%. He was succeeded in 2002 by Jean-Charles Taugourdeau (UMP, mayor of Beaufort-en-Vallée) who won over 62% in the 2002 runoff and won by the first round in 2007 with 52.4% of the vote... the Baugeois is no longer the republican stronghold of a hundred years ago! In that election, he had faced the then-PRG (ex-Green) mayor of Saumur Jean-Michel Marchand (who had won the 4th constituency in 1997, but lost in 2002) who took second with only 22.2%. Marchand is running again this time, but is in a much stronger position. Taugourdeau is running again, but there is an apparently very dangerous dissident candidacy by Frédéric Mortier, the DVD mayor of Longué-Jumelles. The talk is that a "triangulaire de la mort" between the two right-wingers, similar to what happened next door in 1997, could be fatal to the right and allow Marchand to win. I have my doubts...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

4th (Saumurois, UMP): The Saumurois is traditionally conservative, but not in the sense of the Cholateais or the bocage angevin. Saumur itself voted for Sarkozy, as did the constituency as a whole (55.9%). This constituency was a big shock in 1997 when the Greenie Jean-Michel Marchand emerged as the surprise come-from-behind winner of a three-way runoff opposing two right-wingers who had been about tied for first in the first round. Marchand won with only 36.6% in the runoff, but he was elected mayor of Saumur in 2001. In 2002, the UMP's Michel Piron defeated Marchand in the runoff, with 58%. In 2007, Piron was reelected by the first round with 52.5%. Marchand lost Saumur to the right in 2008, after having joined the PRG. Marchand being out of the running here, Piron does not face serious competition on his right or left. Right hold, for sure.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Choletais, CNIP-UMP): The Choletais - of which this constituency covers only part - is the old reactionary/Catho/monarchist stronghold of Anjou. In that way, the fact that its deputy since 2002, Gilles Bourdouleix (mayor of Cholet) is the national leader of the old and very conservative CNIP (allied to the UMP) is strangely fitting. But the Choletais is also a very working-class region (textiles), which is of course not very apparent with its staunchly conservative voting patterns. Even though Hollande won Cholet proper, rural regions in this constituency remain right-leaning. Sarkozy won 'only' 51.2% in this constituency, though. In 2007, Bourdouleix won 56.3% in the runoff and he'd won his first term with 61.1% in the 2002 runoff. The PS has the same candidate as in 2007, and the MoDem is led by an old centrist opponent of Bourdouleix in Cholet city hall (Xavier Coiffard) who had won 16.2% in 2007. Bourdouleix does not seem very threatened, but I've seen stranger things.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

6th (Angers-ouest/Choletais, NC-CD): This is a polarized constituency, including the very leftie canton of Angers-ouest (59% Hollande) and the middle-class suburban canton of Saint-Georges-sur-Loire (51.6% Hollande) combined with very conservative and fairly working-class cantons of the Choletais (but Champtoceaux is suburbanizing). Hervé de Charette, a centrist who joined the UMP but is now the leader and sole member of Centrist Party #4587 (also called, for nerds, 'Convention democrate'), has been the deputy here since 1988. He won over 60% in 1997 and 2002 runoffs, but got a shabbier 56.7% in the 2007 runoff. Sarkozy won 53% here. This seat is moving left, slowly but surely. Hervé de Charette is running for a sixth term, and has the UMP's support, but faces a dissident candidacy from André Martin, a local mayor. The MoDem's guy is also a local mayor. The PS conceded this seat to the Greenies, in the person of Marianne Prodhomme, a local councillor in Angers. There is a DVG dissident candidacy, the PS' candidate in 2007. The left can certainly win here in a 1981-like vague rose (which, in passing, had not elected any leftie in the Maine-et-Loire back then...!), but it is a bit of a longshot and I'm not sure if a Greenie is in a position to do so. But if the right is badly divided, it is a distinct possibility.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

7th (Angers-nord/Segré, UMP): The Segré area has been a conservative stronghold, like the Choletais and the rest of the bocage angevin, for ages now. But the inclusion of two cantons of Angers (54% for Hollande in both), cantons which include some leftiezing (it's a new word, meaning 'shifting to the left'!) suburbs of Angers (Avrillé) and the presence of a tiny leftie working-class basin to the west of Segré has made this constituency more and more marginal. Sarkozy won only 50.9% of the vote here. The UMP incumbent here since 1988 is Marc Laffineur, an outgoing cabinet minister and ex-centrist. Laffineur won easily in the second round in 1997 and 2002, and won by the first round with 51.7% in 2007. He should be fine this year, though I am not sure what to make of the AC candidacy of a local mayor with MoDem support. The PS' candidate, who won 23.7% in 2007, is a local councillor in Angers. I have a hard time seeing this seat go anywhere as things stands, despite Sarko's weak margins 'round these parts.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
« Last Edit: May 21, 2012, 07:17:12 am by Sharif Hashemite »Logged


Hashemite
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« Reply #20 on: May 20, 2012, 08:24:13 pm »

I've finding myself a bit too conservative (in both sense of the term!) in my predictions... hmm...

Anybody especially eager for me to jump around to other, more interesting, departments?
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2012, 09:25:42 pm »
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How about some Petite Couronne stuff, or maybe Seine-Maritime or Somme? Smiley
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big bad fab
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2012, 01:36:43 am »
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Sorry, but I'm a man of order Grin
Please first finish Pays-de-la-Loire. Then, you can err as you want around the map Wink For example in Normandies and Picardie: some constituencies are interesting.

Vendée: I agree with all your predictions.

Maine-et-Loire: OK on everything, but the 1st may tilt to the left I'm afraid. Bachelot isn't so strong any longer there and there can be an Ayrault and "moderate team" effect in the North-West, especially around cities.

Loire-Atlantique: I agree with everything. The 10th will be won by the left, that's my guess: it's gaining ground every day...
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2012, 05:36:21 am »
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I am interested in the Southern France. Generally it is left wing, but I would be interested in more details.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2012, 09:38:47 am »
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Well, the most important thing is that you finish this tour of France Wink
And as your comments on every constituency will make me happy... do as you wish Smiley
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