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Author Topic: French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions  (Read 22706 times)
big bad fab
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« Reply #50 on: May 24, 2012, 05:40:17 pm »
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Oh, and I change my prediction for Côtes-d'Armor, 3rd: I think the PS will prevail.
But I keep Le Guen winner in Finistère (I just can't believe he too will lose... no more rational than that in a way Tongue)
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« Reply #51 on: May 24, 2012, 06:01:42 pm »
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Question: Could a Ayrault effect happen in the Loire-Atlantique legislative races, or that kind of things isn't happening on that side of the Atlantic?
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« Reply #52 on: May 24, 2012, 07:41:06 pm »
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Question: Could a Ayrault effect happen in the Loire-Atlantique legislative races, or that kind of things isn't happening on that side of the Atlantic?

Nope. Because people don't vote for him directly.
The constituencies that will predictably be won by the right will be won anyway.
But, in the constituency on which I disagree with Hash, well, why not ? Just to make me right, for once Grin
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Hashemite
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« Reply #53 on: May 24, 2012, 07:54:46 pm »

Indre-et-Loire
2007: 3 UMP, 2 PS

1st (Tours, PS)*: This constituency gains Tours-nord-est, meaning that only Tours-nord-ouest is not included in this seat representing Tours. While the left's performance in the rest of the Indre-et-Loire has been anemic as of late, Tours has been shifting at a mad pace to the left, in line with other cities in the region, for reasons touched on previously. Tours is a pretty middle-class white-collar town nowadays, with its share of HLM-dominated neighborhoods, bobo central areas and old bourgeois areas. Hollande won 56.9% of the vote here. At the legislative level, Tours was the stronghold of my political hero, Jean Royer, between 1958 and 1997, who served as mayor of the city between 1959 and 1995, when he was defeated by the Socialist Jean Germain, who has been mayor since. Royer certainly won here because of his image as an independent maverick and competent manager, because his moralfaggotry wasn't suited, sociologically, to Tours. In 1997, Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, who became Chirac's culture minister, narrowly won the race to succeed Royer. In 2007, however, Donnedieu de Vabres' time had run out and he narrowly lost (51.1% vs 48.9%) to Jean-Patrick Gille (PS). In 2001 but again in 2008, his attempt to knock out Germain proved an epic fail. Gille should hold on very easily in this leftist stronghold, now. He does face a slightly high-profile UMP candidate, Guillaume Peltier, the ex-FN and ex-MPF young kid who ought to run in better places if he wants to get a real political career. Peltier had run here in 2007, for the MPF, and won 5.9% (and then 8.4% in the 2008 locals). For the UMP, Peltier almost knocked off a PS incumbent in Tours-Sud in the 2011 cantonals. Peltier is an ambitious rising star who is also annoying (like all young rising stars, I guess), but he'll lose badly. Run in Montaigu.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Amboise/Montlouis-sur-Loire, UMP)*: This seat loses Tours-nord-est. Sarko narrowly won here, with 50.6% here. This constituency is heavily suburban: almost all communes here are in the greater commuter belt of Tours, and in turn it is generally pretty affluent throughout. The left is strong in Montlouis-sur-Loire, a middle-class canton in the outskirts of Tours, and finds some strength near Amboise. Most of the seat, however, is suburban or exurban, thus leans to the right. Michel Debré lost in this constituency back in 1962, but his son Bernard Debré won here in 1988. But he lost a 1995 by-election to the PS mayor of Montlouis, Jean-Jacques Filleul, who won again in 1997 but lost to Claude Greff (UMP) in 2002. In 2007, she won reelection with 54%. She is running for a third term, after a brief stint in cabinet. The PS gave this seat away to EELV in their deals, a bonehead choice for a constituency to give to the Greenies, and resulted in a dissident candidacy from a PS local councillor in Montlouis. The EELV candidate is Christophe Rossignol, a regional councillor. The FG is running the PCF mayor of Chateau-Renault, a little working-class town in the far north of this seat. Greff is likely the narrow favourite, but her defeat in the eventuality of a 1981-like wave is not out of the question. For now, she can hope to benefit from the left's division.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
3rd (Loches/Montbazon/Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, PS): This constituency goes from the far south of the Indre-et-Loire, takes in Loches and Tours' outer suburbs (Montbazon, Chambray-les-Tours, Saint-Avertin) and finishes its trail in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, right outside Tours. The sprawling seat is both suburban, well-off and right-leaning around Saint-Avertin, Montbazon, Chambray-les-Tours; a bit more divided in rural areas which include some left-leaning small industrial towns (Descartes, Ligueil) but then extremely working-class, solidly left-wing and low income in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, a cité cheminote right outside Tours and historic PCF stronghold (even today: Melenchon took 24%, Hue in 1995 probably did even better). Hollande won 51.79% here, but he would have lost the seat had it not been for his super-duper margin in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps (73.3%). Since 1997, the fight here has been between the PS' Marisol Touraine, daughter of Alain Touraine, president of the CG and new cabinet minister; and Jean-Jacques Descamps, who won in 1993 and 2002. She won 53.5% in 1997, lost in 2002 but won by a tiny margin (which would be gone, again, if it wasn't for some 70% in cheminot land) - 50.2%. On paper, this should be a target seat for the right, but I doubt Touraine will lose in a year like 2012, especially that she's in government now. She faces the NC-UMP CG for Grand-Pressigny . The PCF won over 11% in 1997 and 7.5% in 2007, but mostly because its candidate then was Marie-France Beaufils, the mayor of cheminot land and nowadays Senator. The FG is running the CG for cheminot land, who probably won't do as well as Beaufils could. Touraine should win without sweating too much.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured

4th (Joué-lès-Tours/Chinon/Azay-le-Rideau, UMP): Hollande won 52% in this seat, boosted by a strong performance in the two extremities: Chinon and the surrounding nuclear power plant (Avoine), where the PS usually performs strongly, and Joué-lès-Tours, a slightly more deprived suburb of Tours where Hollande took 56%. Up until Azay-le-Rideau, the Loire valley is largely a suburban area for Tours, and is more or less right-leaning. Other rural areas also tend to the right, but not uniformly and not overwhelmingly, at least in 2012. Since 1958, this has been a bellwether: a Gaullist stronghold between 1958 and 1981, then gained by the PS in 1981 and held in 1988, gained by the liberal Hervé Novelli in 1993, who lost to the PS in 1997 (narrowly: 49.2%) but won again in 2002 and 2007 - with 53.7% in 2002 and 52.6% in 2007. In 2002 and 2007 he won against Philippe Le Breton, the PS mayor of Joué-lès-Tours who is not running this year. Instead, Novelli, the leader of the UMP's so-called reformist or liberal right-wing, will face Laurent Baumel, the PS mayor of Ballan-Miré, an affluent suburb of Tours. This is a very interesting race, both because the constituency has been a "show-me constituency" since day one, but also because Novelli is a fairly high-profile guy in the UMP (though is influence is minimal). The trend against him is pretty heavy here, at least based on the May 6 results which remain a good indicator in these type of urban/suburban constituencies where "favourite son" and personality boosts are less important than in more rural constituencies when often vote more on the person. For now, I'd pin Novelli down as the underdog against a leftie favourite.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

5th (Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire, UMP): Except for the cantons of Chateau-la-Valliere and Bourgueil, this is almost entirely Tours suburbia, the biggest town in this is Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire, the most right-wing major city in the department. Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire is an affluent suburb of Tours and UMP base, as are other affluent inner suburbs in the canton of Luynes and Neuille-Pont-Pierre. Besides the blue-collar town of Langeais on the banks of the Loire, the "rural" parts of this seat are all fairly right-leaning. Sarko won 52.5% here, his best result in the department. Since 1993, the seat has been held by the UMP's Philippe Briand, mayor of Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire. The PS won here in 1988 but lost narrowly to Briand in 1997. Claude Roiron, the former PS president of the CG (and CG for Tours-nord-ouest, a leftie canton of Tours which is the only canton of Tours not included in the first constituency), lost thrice here, most recently five years ago when Briand won 55.4% in the runoff. She is running again this year, with the PS CG for Luynes as her suppleant. This seat is vulnerable, but it seems a bit out of reach for the left in these national conditions, but who knows. Briand can probably hold on once more, perhaps a repeat of 1997 (50.5%).
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

BTW, I just voted, through the internet, in my constituency. The internet system works fairly well and looks quite secure. I ended up voting for Stéphanie Bowring, the PRG candidate. Lol.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #54 on: May 25, 2012, 02:23:00 am »
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Pfffuuuu... I was a bit afraid you might have ended with a damn stupid Pirate vote ! Tongue Wink
Well, PRG has always been a classy vote.
As a born again Catholic, of course, I won't have the opportunity to vote for the PRG, ever (except if it's Baylet vs Le Pen in 2017 Tongue). But, well, for me, it's all nostalgia of Fabre, Crépeau, Abadie, Schwartzenberg, Doubin, Charles, Hory, Collin, Alfonsi(s), Huwart, Zuccarelli(s), Baylet,...



Glad to see that you've been able to talk mostly about Jean Royer Cheesy

In the 2nd, well, I hope Greff will see the FG candidate beat the "PS-diss." and the Green ones. But I'd give her a slight advantage, too.
In the 3rd and the 4th, it's over for the UMP: Baumel is a strong PS candidate and he has the right profile for this constituency; Touraine will benefit from her new media visibility.
I agree also on the 5th: Roiron is out of date now.

Overall, Indre-et-Loire will be a very pleasing department to follow.
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« Reply #55 on: May 25, 2012, 07:51:32 am »
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Hash is also in strong influence of Saint Pierre and Miquelon that is heartland of present PRG.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #56 on: May 25, 2012, 09:21:04 am »
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Smiley

BTW, I love your typos, Hash:
- a Canadian one with Châtellrault, without the "e" after the double "l",
- but, far better, Villiers-Bocage is amazing... Villers-Bocage is not the fatherland of Villiers, but, indeed, the latter is so stuck to the bocage Grin



Apart from Picardie, if you are fed up only to follow a geographical continuity, Ile-de-France and big departments (Pas-de-Calais, Nord, Rhône, Loire and especially Bouches-du-Rhône) will of course provide some interesting situations. But I think Lorraine and Languedoc will be thrilling in some constituencies (Yonne, Doubs and some foreign constituencies too).
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« Reply #57 on: May 25, 2012, 04:58:58 pm »

Somme
2007: 2 NC, 1 PS, 1 PCF diss, 1 UMP
 
1st (Tom DeLay Memorial Constituency/Amiens-nord/Abbeville, Stalin United FC^)*: This is quite a marvel of gerrymandering we have here. The old first was already bad enough of a blatant gerrymander, but this is a true work of art. It loses Amiens-ouest but gains Domart-en-Ponthieu, Ailly-le-Haut-Clocher and the two cantons of Abbeville. The aim of this gerrymander is to pack the main left-wing strongholds into a single constituency. It takes in the quartiers populaires in the north of Amiens, even circling down to eastern Amiens to take in the cité cheminote of Longueau in Amiens-4, then it connects with Abbeville, a poor blue-collar city in the Baie de Somme region, connecting the two with the very leftie cantons of Domart-en-Ponthieu and Picquigny (poor cantons with an old industrial base, including textiles, in places like Domart or Flixecourt). Only Ailly-le-Haut-Clocher, an old centrist fief, leans to the right in a constituency which gave Hollande 59.5%. Marine won 23.2% here, not doing swellingly in the Amiens inner burbs but doing strikingly well in places like Domart-en-Ponthieu and Picquigny, filled with declining poor industrial areas and with manual workers who find themselves attracted to urban areas. Between 1993 and 2011, the old first – which retained a strong PCF base in Picquigny and Amiens – elected the charmingly mad Stalinist Maxime Gremetz. In 2007, Gremetz, who turned increasingly mentally unstable and in his later years (to the point of looting another PCF deputy’s office or physically assaulting someone), had a falling out with the PCF which had enough of his Stalinist antics, so he ran for reelection as a dissident, facing PS and PCF opponents. He beat the PCF candidate by about ten and the PS by about five, and won reelection with a huge 59.3% in the runoff. He resigned his office in 2011. Being a safe leftie seat, it held a lot of promise for a lot of people, and created a huge sh**tfest in the PS. We had rumours about the mayor of Abbeville, but then Jack Lang, and then Hollande’s ally Faouzi Lamdaoui before pissed-off Aubry threw a hissy fit at Hollande and got one of her drones, Pascale Boistard, a local councillor… in Paris. Her main rival could be the FG, led by the PCF mayor of Camon with the PCF CG for Picquigny, who could benefit from the carpetbagging of the PS. The FN could get a triangulaire here, but in the end, the left will win – and while I would err cautiously and predict a PS win, the FG isn’t out entirely (but it will likely require placing first among the left).
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Amiens-sud/Boves, NC)*: This seat gains Amiens-ouest, the result is to make it dangerously marginal for the right (Amiens-ouest, held by the Commies, went 62% to Hollande). Hollande won 54.5% here, doing best in the parts of Amiens included in this seat. Only Amiens-6, which includes the most affluent neighborhoods of the city, and suburban Boves which includes like the only affluent suburbs in the department voted for Sarko. The old second has been won by the right since 1988, and until 2007 it was held by Gilles de Robien. In 2007, he was succeeded by Olivier Jardé, CG for Boves. Jardé won 52.8% in the runoff. This constituency was given to EELV by the PS, but there seems to be no dissident DVG candidacy here. Even if Hollande won here, I don’t really think that the left can win here with a Green candidate. It is the ‘greenest’ constituency in the Somme, but that’s not saying much, of course. In the end, I would think that Jardé will win narrowly, but I can’t count out a EELV win here entirely
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
3rd (Vimeu et Ponthieu, UMP): A totally reshaped constituency, it loses Hornoy-le-Bourg but gains Nouvion, Rue and Crécy-en-Ponthieu. The result is a gerrymander which links the Vimeu and Ponthieu together, but leaves out Abbeville which votes incorrectly. Around Molliens-Dreuil, this is Amiens’ right-leaning suburbia. The old third covered the Vimeu, coastal and inland, while the old fourth – now basically eliminated – covered Abbeville and the Ponthieu, both inland and coastal. Until 2007, the two constituencies went in sync with one another, voting PS in 1988 and 1997, and for the right in 1993 and 2002. In 2007, Gilbert Mathon (PS), now retiring, won in the fourth while the UMP held the third. On notional results, I believe the UMP won here in 2007, and the defacto incumbent is Jérôme Bignon (UMP). Hollande, however, took 53.1% here. He performed extremely well in the old Communist stronghold of the Vimeu rouge (Ault, Friville-Escarbotin, Gamaches), which is a very old industrial area (locks and faucets around Friville-Escarbotin, the glass industry along the Bresle river), while losing more narrowly in the Ponthieu and Amiens burbs. The Baie de Somme area, particularly the marshes which abound with water fowl, used to be CPNT’s top stronghold – Saint-Josse won a plurality in both the old third and fourth in 2002 – and CPNT retains some influence in Rue and Saint-Valéry-sur-Somme, though a lot of CPNT’s redneck hunters vote for the FN now. Marine won 25.3% here, second place ahead of Sarko, doing well basically throughout and especially well in the old CPNT bastions in the hunting grounds. This year, Bignon, who had defeated Vincent Peillon in 2002 and 2007, faces Jean-Claude Buisine, CG for Nouvion. The FG could also be important here. A triangulaire with the FN is likely here, and this is something which would probably hurt the UMP significantly given that Sarko in the first round was very weak – hardly surprising, the redneck hunters vote FN before they vote UMP. France-Electorale’s predictions based on 67% turnout and a FN at 15% gives the FN enough for a triangulaire, thus in the expectation of a triangulaire, I would predict a PS gain here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
 
4th (Marleixtrocity, UMP)*: This is probably the most atrocious of the sh**tbag’s atrocious gerrymanders here. The new horror combines parts of the old fourth and fifth constituencies, to take up an awful salamander shape reaching from the Oise borders to the Pas-de-Calais, circling around Amiens. Around the cantons of Villiers-Bocage, Corbie, Moreuil, Ailly-sur-Noye and Conty, the influence of Amiens is very important. Overall, except for more affluent suburbs in Villiers-Bocage, this is a poor and traditionally working-class area. The left is strong in old PCF strongholds around Corbie and its textile industry, but also in Doullens on the border with the PDC, also an old textile area. Rural areas, which are far more exurban or suburban than actually rural, have leaned more to the FN/right in recent years. Marine won 25.6% here, doing well basically throughout the constituency. Hollande won with only 51.5% here. The de-facto incumbent is Alain Gest (UMP), who won in the sixth in 2002 and 2007, but with only 50.7% in 2007 (different boundaries). The seat, I think, is notionally UMP. Gest is running again this year, facing Catherine Le Tyrant, PS CG/mayor for Montdidier. The FN will probably make a triangulaire here, which might be fatal for the UMP, Sarko having placed third behind Marine on April 22. In the expectation of a triangulaire, I would predict a PS gain here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
5th (Péronne/Roye/Albert/Santerre, NC)*: The fifth gains Rosières-en-Santerre and Roye. Hollande won 53.6% here, backed by the small industrial centres of Albert, Rosières, Roye and Nesle. This is a very poor and isolated, marginalized region which is not suburban quite yet but which is not purely rural either. Most municipalities here are classified as “multipolarized” – inhabitants tend to commute to small towns in the canton or broader region for work. This whole setup makes it fertile ground for the FN, which is now extremely strong in these types of geographically isolated and marginalized semi-rural multipolarized areas – and there are plenty of those in Picardy and northern France. Marine won her best result here, with 27%, nearly as much as Hollande who placed first in the first round. She won between 24% and 33% in the cantons making up this constituency. The incumbent here is Stéphane Demilly, the NC mayor of Albert who won 55.5% in 2007 against the PS, after taking 49% in the first round. Running for a third term, he faces Valérie Kumm, the PS mayor of Péronne, but also a high-profile FN candidate: Wallerand de Saint-Just, a well-known lawyer and nutjob. The FN having done so well here back in April, it is basically certain that the FN will either win a duel with the left (or the right, but I doubt it), or, more likely, a triangulaire which would almost certainly doom Demilly and the right here. I have a hard time seeing Demilly survive.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
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« Reply #58 on: May 25, 2012, 06:53:45 pm »

Pas-de-Calais - Part I
 
1st (Saint-Pol-sur-Ternoise/Ternois/Artois, PS)*: This seat loses Arras-Sud and Arras-Ouest, but gains the following cantons: Auxi-le-Château, Saint-Pol-sur-Ternoise, Aubigny-en-Artois, Vitry-en-Artois and Marquion. It mixes some Arras suburbs (cantons of Beaumetz-lès-Loges and Croisilles) with some rural areas, some small industrial centres (Pas-en-Artois, Vitry-en-Artois, Auxi-le-Château, Bapaume) and the regional centre of Saint-Pol-sur-Ternois. Sarko won 51% here, and Marine took 25.7%. Hollande did well in Bapaume, Vitry-en-Artois or Auxi-le-Château, but in good part this constituency includes part of the rural Artois, which is a very conservative region, in the past tending towards clericalism and hierarchal, patriarchal political dominance by nobles or landowners. Sarko won over 55% of the vote in two cantons, including that of Saint-Pol-sur-Ternoise. However, the old first is currently held by the PS after being, between 1978 and 2007, the stronghold of left rad Jean-Pierre Defontaine. In 2007, the PS’ Jacqueline Maquet won 52.1% in the runoff against the UMP and held the seat for the left. In a good year, this would likely be an easy target for the UMP. However, it seems very tough for the UMP to win here, this year. The centre-right is divided, with the MoDem backing the CG for Croisilles, and the UMP running with Michel Petit, CG for Beaumetz-lès-Loges. Maquet is running in the second, being from Arras and all, so the PS candidate is the CG for Bapaume, Jean-Jacques Cottel. The PS should not face lots of trouble holding on, especially if the FN is able to make a triangulaire here – which is quite likely.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured
 
2nd (Arras, PS)*: Now centered exclusively around Arras (and Vimy), this seat gains Arras-Sud and Arras-Ouest, but loses Vitry-en-Artois and Marquion. Arras is a left-leaning city, giving 57% to Hollande – against 53.7% in the constituency as a whole. But it is not as working-class as other major cities in the 62: it has a large young population, tons of public sector employees and is more middle-class and white-collar than the other big PS strongholds in the 62. But it has usually been a Socialist stronghold, most famously with Guy Mollet between 45 and 75, albeit since 1995 it has been ruled by the right – rather, the MoDem, with Jean-Marie Vanlerenberghe, the man whose face scares kids away, as mayor (until last year). The cantons of Dainville and Vimy are rather affluent and suburban, and lean more to the right, but in this constituency, the left overpowers them. The old second was held by Catherine Génisson, since last year a PS senator. Briefly held by the right in 1993, she had won by a landslide in 1997 and won two successive reelections, with 56.1% in 2007. She will be succeeded by Jacqueline Maquet, incumbent in the old first, whose suppléant is the MRC CG for Vimy. The UMP’s candidate is the president of the tourism office in Arras. Marine won only 19.1% here, so it will probably be the only seat in the 62 where the FN doesn’t make it.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Lens/Avion, PS)*: The new third is more or less the old thirteenth, with the addition of the PCF stronghold of Avion to piss the Socialists off some in this mining basin constituency centered around Lens. Hollande won 64% here. Lens might have tried to move on from the old mining days by becoming a bit more ‘tertiaire’, but it remains one of the poorest cities in France with huge unemployment, very low incomes, low levels of education and so forth. Lens gave 64% to Hollande, and has been ruled only by PS mayors since 1947. Noyelles-sous-Lens is also a PS stronghold. However, the mining towns of Avion and Harnes – Avion especially – are PCF strongholds. Avion has been ruled by the PCF since before the war. Mélenchon took 25% in Avion and 15% in Harnes, but only 12% in Lens. Marine won 29.4% here, including over 30% in Noyelles-sous-Lens and Harnes, and 27% in Lens and Avion. Mélenchon placed third with 16.2%. Since 2007, the old 13th has been held by Guy Delcourt, PS mayor of Lens since 1998, who succeeded Jean-Claude Bois, who had held the seat since 1981. Delcourt won 64.2% in the runoff against the UMP in 2007, and 67.7% in a runoff against Marine Le Pen in 2002. The UMP, which placed fourth in 2002 (and on April 22) is out of the running. The three main guys, besides Delcourt, are Bruno Troni - the PCF CG for Noyelles-sous-Lens who took 13.2% in 2007, and the FN whose candidate is a regional councillor. The FG could stand an outside chance, because of their strength in Avions and Harnes, at winning this seat; while the FN could place second and lose to the PS or FG in the runoff. Turnout is low in these parts, so no triangulaires 'round here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Berck/Etables/Artois, UMP)*: Gains Le Parcq, Fruges and Hucqueliers; which shores up the right in this constituency - Sarko's best in the 62 with 53.4% of the votes for him. The left is strong, for reasons a bit foreign to me, in Hesdin and Campagne-les-Hesdin, but what dominates here is the canton of Montreuil (63% Sarko), home to the affluent coastal resort town of Le Touquet-Paris-Plage (78% Sarko). The addition of three inland rural cantons in the hills of the Artois is favourable to the right, given the conservatism of these areas (for reasons touched on previously). The old fourth was narrower, but it had never elected a leftie. In 2007, Daniel Fasquelle, UMP mayor of Le Touquet, won 53.9%. In 1997, his UDF predecessor won 51.2% in the runoff. Fasquelle is running for reelection and is likely the favourite in the 62's most right-wing seat. He faces his 2007 PS rival, Vincent Léna, a regional councillor. A triangulaire with the FN could be dangerous and is a possibility, but Marion only won 21.4% of the vote here. France-electorate's estimates, the best such predictions on such things imo, do not predict a triangulaire here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

5th (Boulogne-sur-Mer, PS^)*: Gains the northeastern and northwestern cantons of Boulogne-sur-Mer, so it now includes the entirety of this industrial, working-class and low income city but also its working-class suburbs such as Le Portel, Outreau etc and some more well-off suburbs. This is a left-wing stronghold: Hollande won 57.5% here, including 62% in Boulogne-sur-Mer, 66% in Outreau and 58% in Le Portel. On the left, furthermore, the PS has been dominant here, while the PCF has never been extremely strong. Marine won 22.3% here. The area has elected a right-wing deputy only once since 1958 ('93), it elected Communists in 1973 and 1978, but has voted PS since then. In 2007, it elected the PS mayor of Boulogne-sur-Mer and new cabinet minister Frédéric Cuvillier with 62% in the runoff. Cuvillier is running again. The right finally managed unity here, behind the DVD mayor of Le Portel, Laurent Feutry. The unity of the right likely precludes a triangulaire with the FN or the FN placing second, but I guess there's an outside chance either of those scenarios could happen. Whatever does happen, however, the PS will win.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 08:19:39 am by Sharif Hashemite »Logged


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« Reply #59 on: May 25, 2012, 08:27:33 pm »
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http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/index.asp

At last, all the candidates are available on this fine interactive map.


this site sucks

not because of you of course, but because of this f... ministry of interior with those "divers gauche, divers droite, autre, gnagnagna"


a little compare from this site, about 4th circonscritpion of côtes du nord
http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/candidats/02204.asp

and same circonscription but from another site :

http://www.politiquemania.com/candidatures-legislatives-2012-cotes-d-armor.html


wich give us the most "étiquettes" as possible Smiley
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« Reply #60 on: May 26, 2012, 05:46:47 am »
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As for candidates, they declare what they want when they put their candidacy in the Prefecture.

Neither the Assemblée's site, nor politiquemania has what is interesting for us: is a DVG a PS-dissident or a real DVG ?
You have to know the local situation or to search for yourself Grin



In Somme, I mostly agree with you, Hash.
In the 4th and 5th, the PS candidates are very strong locally and, with or even without traingulaires, they'll win in national pink wave.
In the 3rd, a likely triangulaire will erase the small chances remaining for the UMP.
In the 1st, the communist tradition is deep and I think the FG candidate will be in front of the PS one.
In the 2nd, I really fear a EE-LV win, even if their candidate is weak (and, yes, the only noticeable DVG candidate is a MRC which is president of the Office de Tourisme: no big deal, I think). Just for that, Jardé may win with a 50.2 score Tongue

Somme will be a "wonderful" department, because we must remember that there was NO trinagulaire in 1997. This year, we may have at least 3 !
And there may be a net gain of +3 for the left here, if not +4... Sad
Oise and Aisne will be fine, too, electorally speaking.
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« Reply #61 on: May 26, 2012, 06:02:46 am »
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Pas-de-Calais, part I: you are right on everything. Pretty sure the FG won't make it against the PS anywhere.

Just for fun, my own predictions so far (hope Antonio will update Hash's own map):


I hope Hash will forgive me to have put "rég. & ind." at the bottom of this list, just under the FN Tongue
Should correct this next time.
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« Reply #62 on: May 26, 2012, 08:31:33 am »
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I find the map of France above is very hard to make sense of. The two parties that matter the most UMP and PS are not contrasting enough colors and I have a bit of colourful blindness and have trouble seeing the difference between some shades of purple and blue side by side. Why not use red for PS and blue for UMP?
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« Reply #63 on: May 26, 2012, 08:36:03 am »
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I find the map of France above is very hard to make sense of. The two parties that matter the most UMP and PS are not contrasting enough colors and I have a bit of colourful blindness and have trouble seeing the difference between some shades of purple and blue side by side. Why not use red for PS and blue for UMP?

Because pink is the official colour of PS.
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« Reply #64 on: May 26, 2012, 09:07:05 am »
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Why not use red for PS and blue for UMP?

What would you use for the PCF, then?
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« Reply #65 on: May 26, 2012, 10:01:22 am »
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(hope Antonio will update Hash's own map)

I'm doing right now, but I'm slow... Tongue

BTW, I think I've found a little mistake : there's no UMP incumbent in Charente.

Still amazing work, and it's going impressively fast. Smiley
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« Reply #66 on: May 26, 2012, 10:54:42 am »
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http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/legislatives-pour-les-francais-de-l-etranger-ca-flingue-au-far-west_1118844.html#xtor=AL-447

They talk about your "lands", Hash Wink
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« Reply #67 on: May 26, 2012, 10:58:37 am »
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Why not use red for PS and blue for UMP?

Hangover from the era when the PCF was a major party. Personally I think a rosy red for the PS and maroon for the Commies works better.
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« Reply #68 on: May 26, 2012, 11:12:02 am »
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Why not use red for PS and blue for UMP?

Hangover from the era when the PCF was a major party. Personally I think a rosy red for the PS and maroon for the Commies works better.

It's almost as heretic as criticizing Dave Leip's colours Wink
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« Reply #69 on: May 26, 2012, 11:14:14 am »
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Why not use red for PS and blue for UMP?

Hangover from the era when the PCF was a major party. Personally I think a rosy red for the PS and maroon for the Commies works better.

It's almost as heretic as criticizing Dave Leip's colours Wink

No, because Dave's colours are the prettier option.
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« Reply #70 on: May 26, 2012, 11:45:41 am »

Pas-de-Calais - Part II

6th (Collines d'Artois/Lumbres/Ardres/Marquise, PS^):* The old third being abolished, the sixth takes up Heuchin, Desvres, Lumbres (from the third), Ardres (from the seventh), Fauquembergues (from the eight) but gives away Boulogne NE and NO and Calais NO. The result is a weird thing which isn't too nice. Hollande won 51.9% here, and Marine took second on April 22 with 25.2%. Rural areas in this part of the Artois, again, remain conservative, but small industrial centres such as Marquise, Lumbres, Ardres or Guines provide the left with a very solid base. Marine did well throughout this constituency, which is largely poor, marginalized and working-class. Hollande didn't really win any canton with huge margins, but he did win the major cities of the cantons he did win by large margins (55-60% of the vote). The old sixth was represented since 2002 by The Great Poet and Cultural Connoisseur, Jack "carpetbag" Lang. For some reason, The Great Poet and Cultural Connoisseur felt like moving to another constituency or he didn't feel like facing a primary in his seat; so he decided to make a scene. Lang won with 53.8% in the old sixth in 2007. His seat left open, the PS made the boneheaded move of endorsing Brigitte Bourguignon, a local councillor in Boulogne-sur-Mer. The main left-wing candidate here is thus Hervé Poher, the PS CG for Guines who benefits from heavy local backing. The UMP is running its 2007 candidate, Frédéric Wacheux, and the FN has a regional and local councillor. The left, Poher specifically, will win fairly easily here, and there is a big chance for either a triangulaire or PS-FN runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

7th (Calais, PS^)*: Gains Calais NO, loses Ardres. The new seat includes the entirety of Calais and its 'burbs. The working-class and low-income city of Calais, 62% for Hollande, has usually been a left-wing - traditionally PCF - stronghold. Overall, Hollande won 57.3% here. The seat has been by the PS since 1988 with the exception of 1993. However, the PS is fairly weak in terms of organization in Calais. The city was governed between 1971 and 2008 by the PCF, most recently by Jacky Hénin, who is now a MEP. In 2008, the UMP's Natacha Bouchart, now a Senator, defeated Hénin, if only because the FN backed out of the runoff and endorsed her and she received unofficial support from the PS against the traditional enemy of PS-62, the Communists. In 2007, Bouchart, as the UMP candidate, took 49.3% in the runoff against PS incumbent Gilles Cocquempot, who is now retiring. The UMP came so close here in 2007 that their thumping in 2012 will be quite spectacular. Indeed, the right is very divided here. There's the official UMP candidate, Philippe Mignonnet, a local official in Calais; Michel Hamy, the DVD CG for Calais NO and local mayor; and Catherine Fournier, a DVD local mayor and former CG. Add to this a FN which won second place on April 22 with 25.6% and it looks quite likely that the right will be eliminated by the first round of voting. The big fight here will be PS vs. FG. The PS' candidate is Yann Capet, the son of former PS deputy André Capet (1988-1993, 1997-2000), but he is not a very strong candidate, at least to me. The FG candidate is Jacky Hénin, former mayor of Calais and MEP. He won 14.1% in 1997 running against Capet's daddy, but will likely do much better than that, and also much better than Melenchon's 12.4%. The games might be troubled a tad by Philippe Blet, the MRC 'adjoint au maire' to the mayor of Calais... who is UMP... The left will hold this seat, but which one of the PS or FG will come out on top and either be alone in the runoff or beat the FN is up for grabs.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

8th (Saint-Omer/Arques/Auchel, PS)*: This seat was famous in 2007 when Michel Lefait, the PS incumbent in the old eight since 1997, was the only left-wing candidate to win by the first round. The new constituency gains the mining basin cantons of Auchel and Norrent-Fontes, while losing more rural Fauquembergues. Hollande won 58.4% here and Marine had placed second with 24.4%. The left's main bases in this new constituency are Arques, Lefait's political base and a big industrial city outside of Saint-Omer (glass industry); the two newly added mining cantons (Auchel and Norrent-Fontes, 64% Hollande in both), the small industrial town of Aire-sur-la-Lys. Getting into Auchel - a PCF stronghold - we're entering the mining basin. Most of the seat still lies outside the old mining basin, but is still largely poor and working-class. Lefait is running again, but it is unlikely he will by the first round. He faces a serious rival in the form of the PCF CG for Auchel (the canton was 17% for Melenchon, but only 10.9% in the constituency). The FN, which won 29% in Auchel with Marine and 27% in Arques, will almost certainly place ahead of the UMP, which is about as popular as the plague in these parts. Whether the runoff is the PS alone because the FG places second and drops out as per custom, or if it is PS-FN; the left will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Béthune/Laventie, UMP)*: Gains Laventie but loses Norrent-Fontes. This seat, 52.9% for Hollande, is not as leftie as its surroundings in the mining basin because it isn't really in the mining basin at this point. Certainly Béthune is a blue-collar city, but it isn't in the mining basin. There are some mining villages here (Lilliers, some communes in Béthune-sud) but not a lot. In addition, places such as Laventin and the northern suburbs of Béthune are fairly white-collar and middle-class, and are very much suburbs of Lille. Laventie, which gave about 59% to Sarko, also has a working-class past - textiles - but because of the Catholic influence in Flanders and other factors, it has been a right-wing working-class area. This seat leans to the left, still, but since 2002 it has been held by the UMP's André Flajolet. Between 1978 and 1997, it was held by Jacques Mellick, the former PS mayor of Béthune who turned out to be a major crook. Mellick hasn't helped the left out much here, and in 2007, when he ran against Flajolet, Flajolet won with 51.8% in the runoff. Flajolet is running again this year, and can hope to benefit from a divided left. The PS is backing Stéphane Saint-André, the PRG mayor of Béthune, but the locals are backing a dissident candidacy by Alain Delannoy, the PS CG for Béthune-Sud. There is also another DVG candidate here. Marine won 23.8% here, so the FN is in a strong position as well. There is an outside chance that the left's division could inadvertently lead to a UMP-FN duel which the UMP would win, but in any other scenario, such as a triangulaire or left-right duel, Flajolet is quite vulnerable. For the moment, I would rate this as a tossup, but with a left edge, not knowing what can come out of the left's division.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

10th (Bruay-la-Buissière/Nœux-les-Mines/Bassin Minier, PS)*: Loses Auchel, gains Sains-en-Gohelle and Noeux-les-Mines. This seat, which gave 62.7% to Hollande, is in the heart of the mining basin. The towns of Marles-les-Mines (PCF), Divion (PCF), Bruay-la-Buissière (PS), Houdain (PCF), Barlin (PS), Nœux-les-Mines (PS), Hersin-Coupigny (DVG) and Sains-en-Gohelle (PCF) used to be core mining villages. The mines have closed, but they remain decling, marginalized and extremely deprived areas with a fairly young and poorly educated population which works in low-paying blue-collar jobs or similar activities. For sure, parts of  Sains-en-Gohelle or Houdain's cantons are more affluent in the suburban sphere of Arras, but the core here remains very poor and working-class. This region has never elected a right-winger since 1958, and has alternated between PS and PCF. Since 1988, the old 10th has been held by the PS. The incumbent since 1993 is Serge Janquin (PS). He is running for reelection. His main rivals are the FN (27.8% Marine, second place) and the FG (13.5% Melenchon). He won 67.9% in the 2007 runoff against the UMP, which should probably be eliminated by the first round in 2012. The FG is running Thomas Boulard, a local official in Divion with the mayor of Houdain as his suppleant. The FN's candidate name is irrelevant, but she could make the runoff, most likely in a straight PS-FN fight. The FG *might* stand an outside chance at pimping the PS for first, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
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« Reply #71 on: May 26, 2012, 11:46:46 am »

Pas-de-Calais - Part III

11th (Everybody Loves Marineland! in Hénin-Beaumont/Carvin, PS^)*: The old 14th is the 11th, gaining, compared to the 14th, the canton of Carvin. This seat is, of course, the one seat which everybody cares about and which everybody knows about (when in most cases, they really don't). The cause is, of course, Panzergirl, who carpetbagged here back in 2007 or so and became Hénin-Beaumont's most famous resident, even if I kinda doubt that Mrs. Born-in-Neuilly actually lives in some old mining village. The city of Hénin-Beaumont has become known across France as "that place where the Le Pen chick is from". She won first place on April 22 in this constituency with 31.4% of the vote (Hollande took 60.4% in the runoff). In Hénin-Beaumont proper, Marion won 35.5% and she's had a "favourite daughter" effect of sorts which has boosted the FN's results in surrounding communes. The new constituency includes the cantons of Hénin-Beaumont, Rouvroy (PCF stronghold), Leforest, Montigny-en-Gohelle, Courrieres and Carvin. In the past, the entirety of these cantons, up until the last mines close in the 1990s (these mines were the last to close), were all mining villages or included cités minières. Rouvroy, Hénin, Montigny-en-Gohelle, Noyelles-Godault, Libercourt, Oignies and Carvin all included mines. Nowadays, with the mines closed, these areas remain very poor. Instead of miners, it is a more mixed population of manual workers, forced to commute to work in larger communes (this is the case in Libercourt, where people commute to a Renault plant in Douai); and low-paid employees in social activities and the public sector. Courcelles-lès-Lens and Noyelles-Godault saw a metal plant close down in 2003. Furthermore, one thing which few people realize, this area is more and more a poor exurb of Lille.

Since 1958, this seat - which was the 14th until 2009 - elected a right-winger only once, in 1993. Between 1958 and 1973 the seat was held by the Socialists. Between 1973 and 1986, the PCF's Joseph Legrand held the seat. In 1988, Albert Facon (PS), mayor of Courrières, won the seat uncontested in the runoff (because the PCF placed second). In 1993, after outpolling the PCF mayor of Rouvroy Yves Coquelle by one vote, he lost to Jean Urbaniak, DVD mayor of Noyelles-Godault since 1983 in the runoff, with 46.3% in the runoff. Urbaniak was a fairly mavericky, independent figure but that didn't help him in 1997. He placed third in the first round with 23.8% behind Coquelle (25.4%) and Facon (25.6%). In a triangulaire against the FN's Steeve Briois (who later joined the MNR, afaik), Urbaniak won only 31.7% against 52.3% for Facon and 16% for Briois. In 2002, Facon (26.2%) and Briois (20.1%) qualified for the runoff, while Gérard Dalongeville, the MDC mayor of Hénin-Beaumont (who was forced out in 2009 in a corruption scandal) placed third with 14.4%. Urbaniak won 12.2% as a DVD candidate, ahead of the PCF (11.1%) and the UMP (7.7%). In the runoff, Facon won 67.9% against the FN. In 2007, the high-profile contest between Facon and Panzergirl ended in the only runoff in France for which the FN qualified. Facon won 28.2% against 24.5% for Panzergirl, Urbaniak - now MoDem - winning 13.2% and the UMP's Nesrédine Ramdani winning 12.95%. The PCF won 11.5%. In the runoff, Marine lost but did well, winning 41.7%. She won 44.5% in Hénin-Beaumont, 48% in Noyelles-Godault (after giving 59% to Urbaniak) and 48.7% in Courcelles-lès-Lens. In the 2009 local by-election in Hénin, the FN won 39.3% in the first round against 20.2% for Daniel Duquenne, an anti-corruption leftie and 17% for Pierre Ferrari (PS). The FN lost to Duquenne with 52.4% in the runoff.

The PS incumbent, Albert Facon is retiring - more or less pushed into doing so. In a very divided and likely semi-rigged PS primary, the mayor of Carvin, Philippe Kemel narrowly beat out another guy. His suppleant is the PS mayor of Leforest. Traditionally, the PS has been the dominant party of the left over the PCF in Hénin-Beaumont, although the PCF dominates right next door in Rouvroy. Like in most of the mining basin, politics usually were a fraternal fight between PS and PCF, and despite any ideological proximity and other appearances, both parties here have a long history of enmity. The PS in the Pas-de-Calais was, for quite some time, backed by heavy anti-communist rhetoric from its leaders. Unlike in the Nord, furthermore, the PS has always tended to be the dominant party of the left, even in most of the mining basin, against the PCF. This is a long-standing tradition, first noted in the 1890s, and maintained by a strong PS machine on the ground in the Pas-de-Calais' mining basin. In recent years, however, the PS-62 has been going down the sh**tter. A lot of its prominent leaders got caught with their hands in the jelly pot, Dalongeville being a local example while Kucheida in Liévin being the most recent example. Factional conflicts, based heavily on personality, have also weakened the PS-62, which has found itself unable to renew its leadership. Factional conflicts are very big in Hénin, where the PS went down the sh**tter with Dalongeville, who seems to have done a Roberto Jefferson and written a book about corruption in the PS. Kemel's nomination resulted in a bad factional conflict, leaving Marine in a strong position to potentially win this seat on the back of the PS' crappy state and its bad image locally.

That is until her worst enemy on the face of the earth, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, decided to come and piss her off in her own backyard. Mélenchon opted to run in this constituency after his Tour de France of constituencies. On April 22, he won 14.9% of the vote, including 23% in the canton of Rouvroy but only 12% in the canton of Hénin-Beaumont. His candidacy was a pretty big risk for him to take, because this isn't a PCF stronghold and the PCF has not been too prominent in this constituency since 1997 or so. I don't think he starts off with a strong PCF infrastructure. But certain things went in his favour: his undeniable charisma, which puts him on equal footing with Panzergirl; his ability to tap into left-wing protest sentiments which run high here given the disastrous state of the PS; and a local ability to benefit from a bunch of grudges, petty personality feuds and mini-civil wars between local PS barons. Facon has been eerily silent, and likely personally supports Mélenchon given his deep enmity with Kemel. Kemel's rival in the primary is basically backing Mélenchon. The DVG mayor of Hénin-Beaumont welcomed his candidacy, almost with open arms. Even if base PS sympathizers might dislike him, it's only a small proportion of left-wing voters who are actually partisans or party members. Local left-wing voters might like Mélenchon's image and stature. There is also the potential factor, touched upon in one article, that local voters in this rather insular setting might like the fact that a big guy like Mélenchon pays superficial attention to them.

The main other candidate is, again, Jean Urbaniak, mayor of Noyelles-Godault and CG for Hénin-Beaumont. He is running more or less as an independent, but with the MoDem's backing and the UMP's endorsement - his suppleant is Nesrédine Ramdani, who gives the impression of being the only UMP member in this area. There is also a PRG candidate, who is a regional councillor; an EELV person; two far-lefties (LO and NPA) plus a Stalinist. Urbaniak is basically the best candidate the non-FN right could come up with, given his strong local base, but he won't win.

An Ifop poll gave the following results:

Marine (FN) 34%
Mélenchon (FG-PG) 29%
Kemel (PS) 18%
Urbaniak (MoDem-UMP) 16%
EELV 2.5%
LO 0.5%
None others polled

According to this (doubtful) poll, Mélenchon would win 55-45 and Kemel would win 56-44. If Urbaniak makes it, Mélenchon wins 44-36-20. The poll has surprised some, but personally, I think Mélenchon can pretty easily be the top candidate on the left, for reasons mentioned above. As for the runoff, 2009 in Hénin-Beaumont was almost as good as it could get for the FN, and she still lost. The addition of Carvin, where she's not as well implanted, could also hurt her (but it will hurt Mélenchon too). She can win, but I have heavy doubts. It would require her to poll 50%+1, which isn't impossible for the FN, but always a tough proposition. Turnout can, of course, play big tricks, but still...
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (against the far-right, lean FG over PS)

12th (Liévin, DVG)*: This seat loses Avion and Sains-en-Gohelle, but gains Cambrin, Douvrin and Wingles. The seat's centre remains Liévin, one of the major cities in the mining basin and a very poor working-class city with a mining past. Liévin but also Grenay, Loos-en-Gohelle, Bully-les-Mines, Mazingarbe, Cambrin, Auchy-les-Mines, Douvrin and Wingles all used to be major mining villages. Besides the northern parts of the canton of Cambrin, which are now fairly affluent suburbs to Lille (and right-leaning), the rest of the seat is solidly left-wing and all working-class. Hollande won 62.6% here, and Marine won 30.1% (and Sarko only 15%) in the first round. She took 29% in Liévin, 32% in Wingles, 31% in Douvrin, 32% in Auchy-les-Mines and 34% in Mazingarbe. Mélenchon won 12.4%, this seat lacks "core" PCF strongholds, though Auchy-les-Mines, iirc, is a PCF stronghold of sorts. Since 1981, the 12th has been the stronghold of Jean-Pierre Kucheida, a strongman of the PS-62 and mayor of Liévin since 1981. In 2007, he won 69.7% in the runoff, in 2002 he faced the FN in the runoff and in 1997 he won uncontested in the runoff after the PCF placed second. Recently, however, the PS has been forced - quite reluctantly - to exclude him given that he too has been found with the hand in the cookie jar. Therefore, Kucheida is running for reelection as a DVG, being opposed by a PS candidate - Nicolas Bays - who, because he's basically a nobody - gives the impression that the PS wasn't too hot on the idea of throwing JPK under the bus. Kucheida will likely win rather easily, despite being a crook, and will likely face the FN in a runoff, like in 2002. The right won't be a presence at all.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Maybe the Bouches-du-Rhone next? Unless anybody is eager for another department.
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E: -6.45, S: -4.87

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« Reply #72 on: May 26, 2012, 12:35:08 pm »
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I'd prefer if you kept it geographically contiguous, maybe finishing the regions you have started covering ?

BTW, you seem to be quicker at coverning contituencies than I am at turning your predictions into a map. Tongue
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #73 on: May 26, 2012, 01:19:46 pm »
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Bouches-du-Rhône would be great: Boyer, Muselier are threatened; will Carlotti make it ? Great duels, possible triangulaires. Real suspense here !

Yonne and Doubs too.
Oise and Meurthe-et-Moselle also.
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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« Reply #74 on: May 26, 2012, 03:02:49 pm »
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I'd prefer if you kept it geographically contiguous, maybe finishing the regions you have started covering ?

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