French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[Vosem]

If this is to be considered as representative of France as a whole, it would mean that the total left seats would not reach 50% - meaning that the left's control of majority would rely on seats ranked as tossups. Thus, we come to the conclusion that the outcome of this election is a tossup,

I'm an ignorant American, of course, so don't mind me...but it seems to me that polling trends clearly showed Sark would have won had the election been held even just a few days later, and that taking into account some sort of small bump from Hollande's victory, the legislative election is tossup with perhaps a vague left tilt.

Conversely, I'm surprised to see how lopsided safe seats are : 53 for the left against 13 for the right ! This seems to suggest that the right benefits from the distribution of seats : the left tends to be packed in safe seats but has few half-competitive seats. This might be proven wrong later, but so far that's what I notice.

How is redistricting done in France?

It seems very possible the left might win the PV but the right wins in the seat count...of course, this all depends on Hashemite being right (and from his other posts I would have to conclude he is very left, hahaha)...

I insist that I think you should keep things as geographically (and administratively) regular as possible. My advice would be to finish NPDC, Picardie, Centre and then go on with Ile-de-France. I'm sure there are interesting races out there.

I wouldn't know about interesting, but geography is a good way to organize this.

As a side note, some constituencies look quite nasty.

This former Illinois resident who now resides in Ohio would like to point out that, no, they don't. Those are clean, un-gerrymandered lines in my neck of the woods.

Also, numbering is utterly ridiculous. Even the US one makes more sense !

No, it doesn't!

This has been very entertaining and informative, and I feel somewhat ignorant asking this, but can someone explain what would cause a certain legislative seat to have a triangulaire runoff instead of a regular top-two runoff? And I'm assuming if you can get 50%+1 then you don't have to go through a second round?

Could somebody answer instead of carrying on talking to themselves?

And, nice map, good analysis of Hashemite's analysis, Antonio. This makes this post an analysis-of-an-analysis-of-an-analysis...generally only religious texts get analyzed that much

[adma]

Yes, 50+1 = first round victory.

And re triangulaires: I believe it's when more than two candidates get a minimum first-round share of registered (as opposed to voting) voters in a particular constituency (10%?), and one of them (more often than not an overachieving FN) refuses to step aside in the second round on behalf of the top/other two finishers...

[Colbert]

As for candidates, they declare what they want when they put their candidacy in the Prefecture.

Neither the Assemblée's site, nor politiquemania has what is interesting for us: is a DVG a PS-dissident or a real DVG ?
You have to know the local situation or to search for yourself

personnaly, i don't count PS/UMP dissidents as part of total voting of PS or UMP, because those votes don't count for the money each party will receive.


(but, yes, for each candidate "sans étiquette", "divers" or other horrible stuff like that, I made a search -generally with his name on google + the name of the department. Often, you found good results)

[Velasco]

I´d like to say that I am enjoying this thread a lot and by the way I am learning a lot of things about French politics, so thanks to the author. I am a little bit afraid about the Bleu Marine wave but otherwise I am expecting the predictions in the FN strongholds (Provence-Alpes Maritimes, Alsace-Lorraine, etc) and the possible triangulaires there. I will end loving Marineland (Hénin-Beaumont) and I am not too sure about a victory of Mélenchon over his Nemesis.

About the maps: pink-PS and red-front-the-gauche are fine to me, so I like big bad fab´s one (and the others too) but I think that a softer pink would work better in contrast (and DVG would need another colour).
  

Yes, 50+1 = first round victory.

And re triangulaires: I believe it's when more than two candidates get a minimum first-round share of registered (as opposed to voting) voters in a particular constituency (10%?), and one of them (more often than not an overachieving FN) refuses to step aside in the second round on behalf of the top/other two finishers...

If I am not wrong, the percentage of registered voters needed is 12.5% (1/8) to pass to the 2nd round.

[MaxQue]

It's me, or Marisol Touraine is/was president of the CG corresponding to the old Touraine province?

[minionofmidas]

50% of valid votes and 25% of registered voters for a first round victory, 12.5% of registered voters or a top two place to advance to the second roung.

[Tender Branson]

New IFOP poll:

49% Right (32.5 UMP + 16.0 FN + 0.5 DLR)

47% Left (34.5 PS + 7.0 FdG + 4.5 Greens + 0.5 LO + 0.5 NPA)

  4% MoDem

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1867-1-study_file.pdf

28% of 18-24 year olds vote FN, only 1% behind the PS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm an ignorant American, of course, so don't mind me...but it seems to me that polling trends clearly showed Sark would have won had the election been held even just a few days later, and that taking into account some sort of small bump from Hollande's victory, the legislative election is tossup with perhaps a vague left tilt.

The situation is pretty unusual, I have to admit. Hollande's narrow victory proves that he won more out of anti-Sarkozysm than due to his own qualities. I won't go as far as saying Sarkozy would have won a week later (we will never know for sure) but there is a fair chance. On the other hand, in the history of the fifth Republic, legislatives held immediately after a Prez election have always given a majority to the newly elected President. Turnout is lower, meaning that these elections are perceived as less important (though in fact they are more) and that they are a mere confirmation of the previous vote. The few polls conduced so far would indicate a left victory, explainable by the fact French people are generally not fond of "cohabitation" (PM and PR of opposite political sides) and that they are ready to give Hollande a chance. The climate is not that of a honeymoon like in 2007, 1995 or 1981, but Hollande nonetheless seems to be apreciated so far. However... The situation is still unusual, with a crisis still on the minds of everybody, and it's not to be excluded that people get afraid at Hollande and think letting the right in power would be a lesser evil. It's hard to know what will come from this.

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A redistricting bill in France is a bill like another : the government introduces it, the parliament passes it. Which means there is no possible barrier against partisan gerrymandering... apart from the incompetence of gerrymanderers. In 1986, right-wing minister Charles Pasqua came with a constituency map which was significantly gerymandered in favor of the right. However, with the demographic trends of the next decades (urbanization and gentrification of the left vote), the right's advantages evaporated extremely quickly. The current redistricting was enacted by Alain Marleix, who is, coincidentally, the UMP's electoral specialist. It is widely seen as favorable to the right overall, but the extent to which it is is unclear. I remember hearing somewhere that the left needed 51.5% nationwide to win a majority... This is significant, but doesn't qualify as "massive gerrymander".

Hash is a centrist/centre-right by French standards, but he can't stand Sarkozy (for good reasons). Also, the UMP candidate in his constituency is an absolute party hack and one of the stupidest (if not the stupidest) persons among the right.

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America is unique with regard to gerrymander. France is obviously miles ahead in this regard, but one can't judge French constituencies by American standards. It would be like saying that an elephant isn't big simply because a galaxy is bigger.

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Yes. There is a second round if no candidate reaches absolute majority by first round. In this case, the candidates who have received the votes of at least 12.5% of registered voters are qualified (if less than two candidates meet this criterion, the two top vote getters get qualified nonetheless). Thus a triangulaire can happen if three candidates reach a 12.5% threshold. In this case, a mere plurality can be sufficient to win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sarkozy wouldn't have won had the election been a week later because the campaign would also have started a week later. And the polls show a big defeat for the UMP in the works, so, you know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sarkozy wouldn't have won had the election been a week later because the campaign would also have started a week later. And the polls show a big defeat for the UMP in the works, so, you know.

What if there were 3 weeks separating the two rounds instead of 2 ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sarkozy wouldn't have won had the election been a week later because the campaign would also have started a week later. And the polls show a big defeat for the UMP in the works, so, you know.

What if there were 3 weeks separating the two rounds instead of 2 ?

Same result, given that all that happened was panic caused by the other lot about to get in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sarkozy wouldn't have won had the election been a week later because the campaign would also have started a week later. And the polls show a big defeat for the UMP in the works, so, you know.

What if there were 3 weeks separating the two rounds instead of 2 ?

Same result, given that all that happened was panic caused by the other lot about to get in.

This is one of the possible interpretations (and the one I personally want to believe in) but not the only one.

[Hash]

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do whatever you want in whatever order you want.

[Vosem]

It's your thread, Hash.

[Jens]

Do whatever you want in whatever order you want.

I'm with Al
Besides that would I love to have a list over the deals between Les Verts and PS - and where FG stand a chance. And if you bother, the same with NC and UMP

And of cause all the DVG and DVD - always fun to see who is real diverse and who is just dissidents from the major parties

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

That sucks. Seriously, I like your lengthy descriptions of each race a lot, but I'd rather have you write only 2 lines per seat rather than renouncing to cover all 577 races.

[rob in cal]

What do you guys think the minimum amount of the nationwide vote the left wing parties need for an overall left wing majority of seats.  In the polls right now the 46 or 47% they are getting should be enough, but I wonder what the danger level is that would mean no majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What do you guys think the minimum amount of the nationwide vote the left wing parties need for an overall left wing majority of seats.  In the polls right now the 46 or 47% they are getting should be enough, but I wonder what the danger level is that would mean no majority.

If there are enough three way fights then they won't even need a majority of second round votes.

[Hash]

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

That sucks. Seriously, I like your lengthy descriptions of each race a lot, but I'd rather have you write only 2 lines per seat rather than renouncing to cover all 577 races.

Dude, I work 38 hours a week; I sleep, I eat and I waste time like any normal human being, and I'm already sacrificing all my free time and more to write these. Unless I can be cloned or somebody joins me in doing this, then as a normal human being, it's unreasonable to expect me to cover 450 constituencies in a serious fashion in like 13 days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

That sucks. Seriously, I like your lengthy descriptions of each race a lot, but I'd rather have you write only 2 lines per seat rather than renouncing to cover all 577 races.

Dude, I work 38 hours a week; I sleep, I eat and I waste time like any normal human being, and I'm already sacrificing all my free time and more to write these. Unless I can be cloned or somebody joins me in doing this, then as a normal human being, it's unreasonable to expect me to cover 450 constituencies in a serious fashion in like 13 days.

Yeah, I know... I'd be unable to do 1/100 of your work. But, just an advice : you might make descriptions far shorter. Maybe it wouldn't be enough to do all 577, but the more you do the better.

[minionofmidas]

Sorry, I don't have the playmoney to clone you. If I did, I would.

I would like to see Nord and PACA, but also like the idea of going clockwise around France. You could always write two lines about the safe places and keep the current format for the interesting seats.

[Hash]

Bouches-du-Rhône

1st (Marseille-11, part of 10 and 12/Vallée de l'Huveaune, UMP^)* The new first covers all of the 11th arrondissement, the north of the 10th and the south of the 12th. It corresponds to the southern part of the old 8th constituency, and part of the old 1st constituency. It is in eastern Marseille, following the A50 highway. Sarko won 55.8% here and Marion won 25.1%. The 11th is a fairly low-income or lower middle-class area in general, with blue-collar or working poor areas in the Vallée de l'Huveaune but more affluent parts in the hills. The 12th is much more affluent, except for a few areas, with some much nicer houses. Sarko won 63% in the canton of Les Trois-Lucs, which includes some of the more affluent parts of the 11th and 12th. Hollande, on the other hand, won 52% in the canton of Saint-Martin, which includes less affluent and oftentimes big HLM concentrations in the valley along the highway. The far-right is predictably weak in the affluent neighborhoods, but polls very well in the valley's more lower-income and blue-collar areas. Marion won 28.8% in the canton of Saint-Martin and 27.5% in the canton of La Pomme (which is not entirely part of this constituency, but the neighborhood of La Pomme itself is - it is a low-income area). The area is somewhat isolated from the downtown parts, in parts it is quite economically and socially marginalized; a perfect recipe, again, for a strong FN vote. The old eight constituency's UMP incumbent, Valérie Boyer, is running here, with Roland Blum, the UMP incumbent in the old first, as her suppleant. She faces a strong NC candidacy from Robert Assante, mayor of the 6th sector and CG for Les Trois-Lucs. The PS candidate is Christophe Masse, a scion of a political family which used to be dominant in the city, CG for Les Olives and former deputy for the eight between 2002 and 2007. The FN is likely to make a triangulaire here, which would be closely fought. Boyer-Blum are a pretty strong duo, and she's an ambitious young member of the Droite pop which can be counted on to appear as a FN-lite. Masse is also a strong candidate. A triangulaire could be very dangerous for the right. A close race for sure.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

2nd (Marseille-7 and 8, UMP)* The second expands to take in parts of the old third (the canton of Saint-Lambert) but loses part of the canton of Vauban. The boundaries are simple, otherwise: the entirety of the 7th and 8th arrondissements of Marseille, the southern coast of the city, south of the Vieux-Port. The 7th and 8th are some of the most affluent parts of the city, especially the Roucas-Blanc, Bompard, Endoume, Périer, La Plage and Saint-Giniez areas. You do have some more bobo or less affluent parts around the Vieux-Port area, but overall this is an affluent constituency. Sarko won 60.8% here, Marine won only 16.8%. Sarko nearly won 68% in the canton of Saint-Giniez, and won over 55% in La-Pointe-Rouge and Saint-Lambert cantons. The incumbent in the old second is Dominique Tian (UMP) since 2002. He won by the first round with over 57% in 2007. He will certainly win again this year, possibly by the first round given the low calibre of left-wing candidates in this conservative stronghold. The FN is unsurprisingly weak here, so no big FN presence should be counted on in these parts.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
3rd (Marseille-13, part of 12 and 14, notional PS):* Nothing to do with the old third: the new third takes in all of the 13th, parts of the 12th and parts of the 14th arrondissements of the city. It corresponds, grosso-modo, to the north of the old 8th constituency and northeast of the old 7th in northeastern Marseille. After the bourgeois of the 2nd constituency, welcome to another world. The 13th is not entirely a low-income area, as its outskirts include some more exurban areas which are a tad more affluent and which post higher number in terms of education or house ownership. But parts of the 13th (Saint-Jérôme and Malpassé especially) and the parts of the 14th included here (Bon-Secours, Saint-Barthélémy etc) are very poor, working-class or blue-collar 'inner city' type areas: big HLM developments (or small houses), areas classified as 'ZUS' (zone urbaine sensible, aka dumps), very low education (sometimes over 40% with no certifications at all), very high unemployment, young populations, multicultural, crime problems and almost every other thing which comes along with blighted inner cities. Hollande won 50.7% here, but the area in general is shifting to the right in general. Marine placed second on April 22 with 26.2% here, doing well throughout the 13th (the more 'exurban' parts are not nearly as affluent as the 12th...) and 14th. I do suspect that Sarko won on May 6 in the more exurban/non ZUS parts of the 13th, while Hollande won by pretty big margins in the ZUS areas. The way Marleix used the scissors here, I think he envisioned for the right to be able to win this seat (like Boyer won the old 8th narrowly in 2007: that seat had voted PS in 1993...) in a year like 2007, but I doubt the UMP can stand a chance in 2012. The FN will do very well, and either go in a triangulaire or a straight PS-FN runoff. The PS incumbent here is Sylvie Andrieux, who is, of course, being a Socialist in Marseille (or - more fairly - a politician in Marseille) a crook/criminal. She has held the old 7th since 1997, a year in which the FN won 42.2% in the runoff. The candidate for the FN, who is more likely to make a strong presence than the UMP's sacrificial lamb, Stéphane Ravier, already won 11.8% in the awful year of 2007 in the old 7th and is well based in northern Marseille. I wouldn't be surprised if the UMP's Nora Preziosi is out by June 10.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured

4th (Marseille-1, 2, 3, parts of 5 and 6, notional PS)* Again, nothing to do with the old fourth: this constituency takes in all of the 1, 2 and 3rd arr. of Marseille and parts of the 5th and 6th. In terms of constituency, it includes parts of the old 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th. This seat is a great example - once again - of packing, or what has been called by some in France the "Indian reserve" strategy. Indeed, this seat, in which Hollande won 69.4% (!) is one of the safest seats for the left in France. It includes a lot of very poor and historically working-class 'inner city' areas of Marseille in the downtown area (most of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd arr.). Unemployment is 32.4% in the 3rd, 30.8% in the 2nd (including 41% in Grands-Carmes) and 26.7% in the 1st. The seat, for good measure, also takes in the most leftie parts of the 5th and 6th: Camas in the former, Notre-Dame-du-Mont/Cours Julien in the latter. In political terms, it is not very important. In social terms, however, these two neighborhoods are the bobo citadels of the city, the Cours Julien being a very popular place for students/artsy types/bobos in general. There is also gentrification at work in the 1st (in 2009, the Greenies won over 26% in the 1st...) and parts of the 2nd (Arenc). Patrick Mennucci, an ambitious PS bigwig (and opponent of the Godfather, Guérini) and mayor of the 1st sector, who narrowly lost in the old 3rd in 2007, is running here. The UMP (16.6% for Sarko on April 22) and the FN (14.5% for Marine) won't be a presence, so the fight is on the left. I must say that the UMP candidate is not a nobody; Solange Biaggi, the new CG for ND-du-Mont, though she only won in 2011 because the division of the left against a corrupt PRG incumbent (in a type of place which isn't too keen on reelecting corrupt lefties...) allowed her to face the FN in the runoff. Mennucci faces a dissident PS candidacy from Lisette Narducci, mayor of the 2nd sector and CG for La Belle-de-Mai. Narducci is a close ally of the Godfather. The FG could make its mark here, where Mélenchon placed second with 19.9%. At any rate...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Marseille-4, parts of 5 and 6, UMP)* The new fifth includes all of the 4th arr. and the parts of the 5th and 6th which aren't included in the 4th constituency. This is a swing seat. Hollande won only 50.2% of the vote here on May 6. It is hard to give a sound descriptor to the whole of this constituency. The 4th arr. is a fairly middle-class area, with some bobo influences (Cinq-Avenues). The 5th arr. is also middle-class, with some more low-income or blue-collar areas. On the other hand, the 6th is an old bourgeois stronghold which is undergoing big sociological changes: Castellane and Lodi are attractive hip spots for the youth and students, and there is a big boboisation phenomenon at work. Hollande won the 6th arrondissement with 51% (though he might have lost outside of ND-du-Mont...), which was a major shock in this old right-wing stronghold. This is the big race in Marseille this year. On the right, Renaud Muselier, UMP incumbent in the old 5th since 1993, is running here. He is another ambitious right-winger in Marseille, and an influential political leader of the UMP in the department. He faces a more divided left. The PS candidate is junior minister Marie-Arlette Carlotti, CG for Les Cinqs-Avenues. The FG is behind Frédéric Dutoit, the former PCF deputy for the old 4th constituency, defeated in 2007. The far-right will probably not make a triangulaire here, where Marine won 18.8% which is probably a bit under what will be needed for the FN to qualify for the runoff.  The main fight is Carlotti/Muselier, which will certainly go down to the wire. A triangulaire would likely be very tough for the UMP, given that the FN vote around here generally transfers to the right in cases of UMP-PS runoffs. I'll cop out of predicting this one and choose the easy way out
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

[big bad fab]

I've already said what is interesting, but let's be more precise :
apart from Bouches-du-Rhône,
Oise
Meurthe-et-Moselle
Yonne
Hauts-de-Seine
Essonne
Val d'Oise
Gard
Hérault
Loire
Aisne
Doubs
are the first tier I think.
And probably in that order

After, that, if you've got time left:
Seine-et-Marne
Nord
Vaucluse
Val-de-Marne
Moselle
Drôme
Meuse
Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Réunion
Lot-et-Garonne
Haute-Loire
can be interesting too.

Thanks a lot for the work already done.
You should write a book

[big bad fab]

Pas-de-Calais: I agree with you for everything, especially on the 6th and the 12th, the PS-diss. will prevail in eahc case.
In the 7th, the PS will win: Hénin is a bit out-of-date now.
In the 11th, well, unfortunately, Mélenchon will probably prevail over the PS candidate and so end winning this stuff.

Bouches-du-Rhône: The 1st and the 5th are probably the GREATEST fights this year... So entertaining !
I think Boyer will win in the 1st by a small margin in a triangulaire (I may be the only man in France to make these subtle differences, but I think Boyer is more on the left of the Droite Populaire ; she's not exactly FN-lite; she's more an opportunist that I've envisioned some time ago to be Gaudin's heir (and not Muselier). But it's more a hope than a real prediction, because Assante will hurt her very much....
In the 5th, I predict a PS win over Muselier: Gaudin will kill him without saying it and Muselier is'nt a very good campaigner. Marseilles' inhabitants will like to have a minister, because they are frustrated for so long...
As for the 3rd, we may have an interesting scenario: a triangulaire with the UMP in the 3rd position and so hurting the FN. Otherwise, it could have been a winnable seat for the FN.