French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[rob in cal]

What do you guys think the minimum amount of the nationwide vote the left wing parties need for an overall left wing majority of seats.  In the polls right now the 46 or 47% they are getting should be enough, but I wonder what the danger level is that would mean no majority.

[rob in cal]

I'm wondering if there is a historical rule of thumb of how often the leader in the first round goes on to  win the runoff in the legislative elections in France. I'm guessing its in the 90%+ range but it would be interesting to see a historical chart.
    In this years election, I'm wondering what will happen if the UMP and PS each get around 33% first round nationwide votes, in terms of how many first place finishers each party will have throughout France. I'm guessing the UMP would have a few more as their vote might be more strategically spread out?

[rob in cal]

Sharif, I've enjoyed your posts on the upcoming election.  One question.  What makes a district a "dump"?  Is it voting for the far right, or is it that those areas are kind of weird, funky areas to start with.  Put another way, if a seat like Carpentras somehow voted for the PS, would it still be a "dump"?

[rob in cal]

On the French sondage legislative page they have a lot of district polls.  I compiled the following info on seats where the presence of a FN candidate might have an impact, on UMP chances.
6th Seine, UMP victory goes from 10 in a two way, to 6 in a three way.
3rd Var, UMP wins by 18 in a three way.
7th Var, UMP victory margin goes from 24 to 15 from two way to three way.
2nd Pyrennees, a 50-50 split in a two way goes to a PS victory by 4 in a three way.
2nd Alpes, a UMP 10 point win in a two way goes to a PS victory by 1 in three way.
3rd Alpes, a UMP 24 point win goes to 13 in a three way.
4th Alpes, UMP wins a three way by 18.