French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm speechless... You are gonna cover ALL 577 CONSTITUENCIES ?

Thank you. Just thank you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It took time to read it, but it was worthwhile. I really hope you'll be able to cover all 577 races, even if a bit more succintly than you're doing now.

I'm starting to compile a little map based on your forecasts. Here's what it gives us so far :



Safe left : 24
Left favored : 1
Lean left : 2
Left : 27

Tossup - lean left : 5
Pure tossup : 4
Tossup - lean right : 6
Tossup : 15

Lean right : 6
Right favored : 5
Safe right : 7
Right : 18

The situation before the election is Left 23 / Right 36.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm with Fab : I want to see the prediction for all 577 constituencies !

[Antonio the Sixth]

(hope Antonio will update Hash's own map)

I'm doing right now, but I'm slow...

BTW, I think I've found a little mistake : there's no UMP incumbent in Charente.

Still amazing work, and it's going impressively fast.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd prefer if you kept it geographically contiguous, maybe finishing the regions you have started covering ?

BTW, you seem to be quicker at coverning contituencies than I am at turning your predictions into a map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here we go ! Sorry, it took a bit of time to catch up...



Safe left : 53
Left favored : 5
Lean left : 7
Left : 65

Tossup - left edge : 10
Pure tossup : 5
Tossup - right edge : 10
Tossup : 25

Lean right : 13
Right favored : 11
Safe right : 13
Right : 37

2007 : Left 62 / Right 71.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let me congratulate you once again for doing this job. You must have spent your whole free time for this. It is really helpful for someone like me who absolutely wants to know what to expect. Kudos !

Since we're over one-fifth and it's starting to shape up, maybe it's time for a few comments. First of all, this looks surprisingly close. So, the area you covered so far is significantly more left-wing than France as a whole (47% of seats held by the left in 2007 as opposed to 40% nationally). However, if we add all safe left, left favored and lean left seats,  we only get 51%. If this is to be considered as representative of France as a whole, it would mean that the total left seats would not reach 50% - meaning that the left's control of majority would rely on seats ranked as tossups. Thus, we come to the conclusion that the outcome of this election is a tossup, which is a frightening perspective enough for me and should give Fab some hope... Conversely, I'm surprised to see how lopsided safe seats are : 53 for the left against 13 for the right ! This seems to suggest that the right benefits from the distribution of seats : the left tends to be packed in safe seats but has few half-competitive seats. This might be proven wrong later, but so far that's what I notice.

I insist that I think you should keep things as geographically (and administratively) regular as possible. My advice would be to finish NPDC, Picardie, Centre and then go on with Ile-de-France. I'm sure there are interesting races out there.

As a side note, some constituencies look quite nasty. Somme is an utter disgrace... Also, numbering is utterly ridiculous. Even the US one makes more sense !

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm an ignorant American, of course, so don't mind me...but it seems to me that polling trends clearly showed Sark would have won had the election been held even just a few days later, and that taking into account some sort of small bump from Hollande's victory, the legislative election is tossup with perhaps a vague left tilt.

The situation is pretty unusual, I have to admit. Hollande's narrow victory proves that he won more out of anti-Sarkozysm than due to his own qualities. I won't go as far as saying Sarkozy would have won a week later (we will never know for sure) but there is a fair chance. On the other hand, in the history of the fifth Republic, legislatives held immediately after a Prez election have always given a majority to the newly elected President. Turnout is lower, meaning that these elections are perceived as less important (though in fact they are more) and that they are a mere confirmation of the previous vote. The few polls conduced so far would indicate a left victory, explainable by the fact French people are generally not fond of "cohabitation" (PM and PR of opposite political sides) and that they are ready to give Hollande a chance. The climate is not that of a honeymoon like in 2007, 1995 or 1981, but Hollande nonetheless seems to be apreciated so far. However... The situation is still unusual, with a crisis still on the minds of everybody, and it's not to be excluded that people get afraid at Hollande and think letting the right in power would be a lesser evil. It's hard to know what will come from this.

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A redistricting bill in France is a bill like another : the government introduces it, the parliament passes it. Which means there is no possible barrier against partisan gerrymandering... apart from the incompetence of gerrymanderers. In 1986, right-wing minister Charles Pasqua came with a constituency map which was significantly gerymandered in favor of the right. However, with the demographic trends of the next decades (urbanization and gentrification of the left vote), the right's advantages evaporated extremely quickly. The current redistricting was enacted by Alain Marleix, who is, coincidentally, the UMP's electoral specialist. It is widely seen as favorable to the right overall, but the extent to which it is is unclear. I remember hearing somewhere that the left needed 51.5% nationwide to win a majority... This is significant, but doesn't qualify as "massive gerrymander".

Hash is a centrist/centre-right by French standards, but he can't stand Sarkozy (for good reasons). Also, the UMP candidate in his constituency is an absolute party hack and one of the stupidest (if not the stupidest) persons among the right.

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America is unique with regard to gerrymander. France is obviously miles ahead in this regard, but one can't judge French constituencies by American standards. It would be like saying that an elephant isn't big simply because a galaxy is bigger.

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Yes. There is a second round if no candidate reaches absolute majority by first round. In this case, the candidates who have received the votes of at least 12.5% of registered voters are qualified (if less than two candidates meet this criterion, the two top vote getters get qualified nonetheless). Thus a triangulaire can happen if three candidates reach a 12.5% threshold. In this case, a mere plurality can be sufficient to win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sarkozy wouldn't have won had the election been a week later because the campaign would also have started a week later. And the polls show a big defeat for the UMP in the works, so, you know.

What if there were 3 weeks separating the two rounds instead of 2 ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sarkozy wouldn't have won had the election been a week later because the campaign would also have started a week later. And the polls show a big defeat for the UMP in the works, so, you know.

What if there were 3 weeks separating the two rounds instead of 2 ?

Same result, given that all that happened was panic caused by the other lot about to get in.

This is one of the possible interpretations (and the one I personally want to believe in) but not the only one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

That sucks. Seriously, I like your lengthy descriptions of each race a lot, but I'd rather have you write only 2 lines per seat rather than renouncing to cover all 577 races.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

That sucks. Seriously, I like your lengthy descriptions of each race a lot, but I'd rather have you write only 2 lines per seat rather than renouncing to cover all 577 races.

Dude, I work 38 hours a week; I sleep, I eat and I waste time like any normal human being, and I'm already sacrificing all my free time and more to write these. Unless I can be cloned or somebody joins me in doing this, then as a normal human being, it's unreasonable to expect me to cover 450 constituencies in a serious fashion in like 13 days.

Yeah, I know... I'd be unable to do 1/100 of your work. But, just an advice : you might make descriptions far shorter. Maybe it wouldn't be enough to do all 577, but the more you do the better.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?


Anyways...



Safe left : 57
Left favored : 6
Lean left : 7
Left : 70

Tossup - left edge : 10
Pure tossup : 7
Tossup - right edge : 13
Tossup : 30

Lean right : 15
Right favored : 13
Safe right : 15
Right : 43

2007 : Left 66 / Right 83.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?

Besides being notoriously bad at being concise, there are just way too many interesting things to say about each seat that long comments end up being useful for those who want to understand what's going on. I might do more if I just told you who the candidates were and gave a raw prediction, but that would be incomplete, boring, uninformative and as useless as the stupidities posted by journalists. If people actually want to understand the details of this election, then they ought to understand the 'local elections' going on in each constituency. If you want superficial numbers and colourful maps, look up the candidacies yourself and make a map based on your hunches and past results.

That's your choice. I have to admit I was primarily looking for a guide of the seats to watch on election day. The detailed geographical and sociological description of each constituency is a great bonus, but I could live without it (especially since you still do it even after the election is over, while predictions are useful before). I have to disagree that a more succint comment accompained by your prediction would be "uninteresting". But anyways, it's your choice since you are the one working at this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You don't have to feel constrained to do your work in a certain way. It's your work and you are free to do it as you prefer. But whatever you might say, I think it's still very interesting this way.

Anyways...



Safe left : 60
Left favored : 6
Lean left : 9
Left : 75

Tossup - left edge : 14
Pure tossup : 8
Tossup - right edge : 16
Tossup : 38

Lean right : 20
Right favored : 13
Safe right : 15
Right : 48

2007 : Left 69 / Right 96.

LOL, I can't believe Lozère could have a 100% left-wing parliamentary delegation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, I had noticed you asked me but forgot to answer :

(Antonio, how’d I do on my stupid senatorial predictions last year again? Probably awfully)

Time to take a look at Hash's predictions. I'll assign numbers according to the realization of his predictions (not for the sake of rating, just to has some elements of comparison ). I'll give 1 when his prediction was realized, 0.7 when one of the two alternative is realized, and 0 when the results were totally unpredicted.

Indre et Loire : Left overperformance 0
Isère : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Jura : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Landes : As predicted 1
Loir-et-Cher : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Loire : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Haute-Loire : As predicted 1
Loire-Atlantique : As predicted 1
Loiret : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Lot : As predicted 1
Lot-et-Garronne : As predicted 1
Lozère : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Maine-et-Loire : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Manche : Left overperformance 0
Marne : As predicted 1
Haute-Marne : As predicted 1
Mayenne : As predicted 1
Meurthe-et-Moselle : As predicted 1
Meuse : As predicted 1
Morbihan : Left over-overperformance 0
Moselle : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Nièvre : As predicted 1
Nord : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Oise : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Orne : As predicted 1
Pas-de-Calais : As predicted 1
Puy-de-Dôme : As predicted 1
Pyrénées-Atlantiques : As predicted 1
Hautes-Pyrénées : As predicted 1
Pyrénées-Orientales : As predicted 1
Paris : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Seine-et-Marne : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Yvelines : As predicted 1
Essonne : As predicted 1
Hauts-de-Seine : As predicted 1
Seine-Saint-Denis : Right overperformance 0
Val-de-Marne : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Val-d'Oise : As predicted 1
Guadeloupe : As predicted 1
Martinique : As predicted 1
Réunion : Right overperformance 0
Mayotte : Right overperformance 0
Nouvelle Calédonie : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
St. Pierre et Miquelon : As predicted 1
French Abroad : As predicted 1

Correctly predicted : 25
Option considered : 14
Wrongly predicted : 6

=> 34.8/45 = 77%


Departements where one outcome was predicted (30)
- Predicted outcome : 17 gains, 1 loss
- Actual outcome : 15 gains, 0 losses

Departements where two outcomes were predicted (15)
- Most pro-right outcome : 3 gains, 3 losses
- Most pro-left outcome : 15 gains, 0 losses
- Actual outcome : 9 gains (+2 Morbihan, not predicted), 1 loss

Not bad at all, if you ask me. Of the 45 départements, 39 went out as you had predicted. Also, no significant bias was identifiable, as the left got only 1.5 seat more than what the average of your predictions indicated.

No you understand why I'm so eager to have your prediction complete ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Plan of attack:

I'll complete all/most of Fab's interesting departments and others of personal interest to me - notably the big ones (Nord, Rhone, all of IDF time permitting). That should take up about most of the remaining days. Oise is next on the list, then I'll try to get a headstart on IDF (covering frontiste sh**tholes is getting tedious and depressing)

On Saturday June 9, I'll post a complete map with my "calls" for all constituencies, including those which won't have write ups. It's unfortunate I won't do all departments, but life sucks.

So I don't need to update the map anymore ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great stuff ! It almost makes me wish the election was held later.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating reading, as always.

And thank you Fab for giving us the complete prediction map ! So, 270 seats for the PS itself and 340 for the left overall ? Eh, may you be right !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you for all the work you put into this. It is truly fascinating. I have yet to finish reading your latest profiles, but I should pull through this before june 10. As for new ones. If you have the time (and if you think it's worth it) I'd like you to cover some Ile-de-France races, whatever departements there you find interesting. Other than that... Maybe Réunion could be interesting, I don't know ? What about some other foreign constituencies (even if I guess they're hard to predict with certainty) ? What about the rest of Picardie, which seems like there are a lot of close races ? I don't know about Isère, but if Fab says it's interesting it certainly is.

Now, if I have look at your national figures, it turns out that the seats where the left is clearly favored (tossups excluded) are only 278, ie eleven seats less than the absolute majority. Of course it's almost certain that, of the 101 tossup seats, at least 11 will break up for the left. But still, it means that a workable majority is not exactly guaranteed. Anyways, that provides us a significantly different scenario than Fab's (who predicts 339 seats to go left, 18 more than you) which will help sorting things out on election day.

Thank you again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

8/11 foreign seats for the left ? I can't believe this !

Thank you for all your amazing work. All this will make election day far more entertaining to me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

j'y ai appris à parler et marcher

Wow, good job! Too bad he's never learnt to read.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL, where did you find all these guys ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love how the last remaining Royalists in France are a bunch of lefties. How ironic.

LOL, where did you find all these guys ?

You can find more of them here: http://lolgislatives2012.tumblr.com/
LOLgislatives, justement...

Wow... indeed !

[Antonio the Sixth]

So for those who are interested, I won't be liveblogging because it takes lots of effort, but I was planning to do some informal chat in Mibbit on some #legislatives2012 room. I hope at least Antonio and Fab can join me on there for some relaxed fun

J'y serai !

I'll probably join discussions by 19h30, once Italy-Spain is over. Since we're both opposed to spoilers, I assume the important things begin at 20 ?