If this is to be considered as representative of France as a whole, it would mean that the total left seats would not reach 50% - meaning that the left's control of majority would rely on seats ranked as tossups. Thus, we come to the conclusion that the outcome of this election is a tossup,
I'm an ignorant American, of course, so don't mind me...but it seems to me that polling trends clearly showed Sark would have won had the election been held even just a few days later, and that taking into account some sort of small bump from Hollande's victory, the legislative election is tossup with perhaps a vague left tilt.
Conversely, I'm surprised to see how lopsided safe seats are : 53 for the left against 13 for the right ! This seems to suggest that the right benefits from the distribution of seats : the left tends to be packed in safe seats but has few half-competitive seats. This might be proven wrong later, but so far that's what I notice.
How is redistricting done in France?
It seems very possible the left might win the PV but the right wins in the seat count...of course, this all depends on Hashemite being right (and from his other posts I would have to conclude he is very left, hahaha)...
I insist that I think you should keep things as geographically (and administratively) regular as possible. My advice would be to finish NPDC, Picardie, Centre and then go on with Ile-de-France. I'm sure there are interesting races out there.
I wouldn't know about interesting, but geography is a good way to organize this.
As a side note, some constituencies look quite nasty.
This former Illinois resident who now resides in Ohio would like to point out that, no, they don't. Those are clean, un-gerrymandered lines in my neck of the woods.
Also, numbering is utterly ridiculous. Even the US one makes more sense !
No, it doesn't!
This has been very entertaining and informative, and I feel somewhat ignorant asking this, but can someone explain what would cause a certain legislative seat to have a triangulaire runoff instead of a regular top-two runoff? And I'm assuming if you can get 50%+1 then you don't have to go through a second round?
Could somebody answer instead of carrying on talking to themselves?
And, nice map, good analysis of Hashemite's analysis, Antonio. This makes this post an analysis-of-an-analysis-of-an-analysis...generally only religious texts get analyzed that much
