Of all the Democratic Party factions, which will be the first to leave?

[Indy Prez]

This is a much harder question to represent cartographically than my GOP variation, as there is significant overlap between the various factions and many inter-factionary facets e.g. "Ethnic Minorities". But it's as comprehensive as daveleip will allow...

Labour Unions = Red
Ethnic Minorities = Yellow
Middle Class DLC types = Blue
Secular Progressives = Green
REPUBLICAN NO-GO = Grey

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

Blue Dogs (Manchin, Taylor etc.)

[Indy Prez]

Also consider the rise of minority candidates in the GOP via the Tea Party in the 2010 midterms (West, Haley, Martinez etc)

[InsaneTrollLogic]

You act is if this is the first time we had the GOP has minority candidates. What about Jindal, Watts and unelected people like Thomas?


and that's a good map though Colorado is at least as Green as Yellow. Its one of the few states where Obama won the White vote. ...and I didn't know there was much unionism in Maine. They also strike me as a "green" state. ... Iowa and Missouri would seem Blue, too.  ...and Delaware seems out of place, too...

This is what my take would be.
Green- Your "hipster" liberals
Blue- The "Hard to Organize"
Yellow- Hispanics and Natives in West, Blacks in East
Red- Working Stiffs
Gray- Little, if any, actual power or base.


...and it depends on what happens and we will probably have to wait until the last vestiges of the old south finally disappear but my money is that if Unions continue to remain weak, they will probably start trending Republican or if more minorities start assimilating, they will probably start becoming more Republican.  

[Indy Prez]

If I had to paint Utah with any Democratic brush it'd be red, as the state party has a long history with mining, and any Hispanic with a choice probably finds any neighbouring state more hospitable so I wouldn't lump it in with the others. I would lump Alaska in with the Minorities for it's Democratic block is pretty solidly Inuit-based (on that note, also thanks for explaining the Natives-Blacks-Mexicans interfactionary composite -though it was my intention to represent the eastern minority states of DE, NY, NJ and FL as Jew strongholds).

Maine has a rich history of labour movement (Bath Iron Works, all that "no one works harder than a Mainer" talk), which Paul LePage recently found out the hard way. It's also in the lower half of states in terms of GDP so it could be called a poor state along with WV and MS.

I consider Iowa green since historically it gave us the first Hipster Democrat in Henry Wallace (and incidentally is the nation's Transcendental epicentre). If we had to base the map on 1988-2000 electoral results I would paint it red. But everyone knows Barry won it in the primaries and in the general by importing his Hipster army.

[Jerseyrules]

Middle class will divert to Rubio or Rand Paul in 2016 or 2020.  Then, IMO, blue collar labor will be the first to go.  Why?  Because there are so many blue collar workers that voted for Reagan in 80, 84, and Bush in 88.  They are a key constituency among the Reagan Democrats.  This is because they work hard and want to keep their tax dollars, and if a GOP candidate has been successful in persuading them that the tax breaks awarded by the GOPer are worth more than the pay increase from the Dem candidate, the have been known to break that way.  How else could Republicans survive in New York, MA, PA, NJ, etc.?

[Peter the Lefty]

Hopefully, the Blue Dogs/New Democrats.  Unfortunately, it's not gonna happen. 

[Senator Snowstalker]

The third group, hopefully, though I'd describe DLC as being more East Coast/white Mountain West Democrats. Minorities obviously won't leave.

[BritishDixie]

I would say that none of these groups will actually bolt the Democrats entirely, but I would say that which group leaves first would depend on the candidate the Republicans put up. Marco Rubio and Brian Cardoval would make major inroads with Hispanics, and probably DLC'ers. Christie and Scott Walker could do very well with Middle Class people and DLC'ers. Santorum might do well in breaking off some Union Members (but it would be ill-advised for the GOP to nominate him). Secular Progressives would never leave the party unless there was some kind of major meltdown for the Democrats, like nuclear war or a recession that makes the depression look like a dip in the fortunes of a small newsagents.