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Author Topic: Predict AR & KY  (Read 3320 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 21, 2012, 08:54:42 am »
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This might be the only primary election where the Democratic Primary is more interesting than the GOP one this year (I think none predicted that Judd would come that close in WV).

Arkansas DEM:

57% Barack Obama
31% John Wolfe
12% Uncommitted

Arkansas GOP:

74% Mitt Romney
12% Rick Santorum
  9% Newt Gingrich
  5% Ron Paul

Kentucky DEM:

63% Barack Obama
37% Uncommitted

Kentucky GOP:

76% Mitt Romney
  9% Rick Santorum
  7% Newt Gingrich
  6% Ron Paul
  2% Uncommitted
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golden
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2012, 09:17:38 am »
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Arkansas

Wolfe: 50%
Obama: 46%
Uncommitted: 4%


Romney: 74%
Paul: 12%
Santorum: 9%
Gingrich: 5%



Kentucky:

Obama: 68%
Uncommitted: 32%


Romney: 68%
Paul: 15% (due to daddy factor)
Santorum: 11%
Uncommitted: 3%
Gingrich: 3%
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shua
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2012, 12:54:18 pm »
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KY:
Romney        63
Paul              14
Santorum      14
Gingrich          7
Uncommitted   2

Obama            71
Uncommitted   29

AR:
Romney        65
Santorum      15
Gingrich        13
Paul               7

Obama            47
Wolfe              28
Uncommitted   25
« Last Edit: May 21, 2012, 12:56:16 pm by shua, gm »Logged

A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2012, 02:20:08 pm »
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Obama will do better in KY simply due to:

1. Eastern KY Democrats are still so loyal to the party that they'll vote for him anyway (at least Elliot)

2. Blacks/urban whites in Louisville and Lexington. Also, it's rumored that Republicans had a GOTV effort for Judd in order to embarrass Obama.
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2012, 05:15:01 pm »
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Obama will do better in KY simply due to:

1. Eastern KY Democrats are still so loyal to the party that they'll vote for him anyway (at least Elliot)

2. Blacks/urban whites in Louisville and Lexington. Also, it's rumored that Republicans had a GOTV effort for Judd in order to embarrass Obama.

1.  Did you look at the map for 2008 in Eastern Kentucky? 



How about this trend?



2.  Do Democrats ever just own up and take responsibility for their own shortcomings?  Or is every bit bad news always the wascawwy Wepubwicans' fault?  Emanuel Goldstein must be the GOP leader!
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2012, 08:57:43 pm »
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Not most of it, but Elliot, at least.
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Corporate Worship
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2012, 07:04:34 am »
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Arkansas:

Obama High 50s

Romney High 60s

Kentucky

Obama Low 70s

Romney High 60s
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2012, 10:04:35 am »
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It's the last time I get up at 3am or so in the night to watch primary returns. Next time will be the conventions.
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2012, 12:49:14 pm »
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It's the last time I get up at 3am or so in the night to watch primary returns. Next time will be the conventions.

What about June 5th? You have Super Tuesday and the Wisconsin recall.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2012, 12:50:57 pm »
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It's the last time I get up at 3am or so in the night to watch primary returns. Next time will be the conventions.

What about June 5th? You have Super Tuesday and the Wisconsin recall.

Ah yeah, forgot about that recall.
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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2012, 02:35:29 pm »
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My Arkansas prediction (probably way off):



Obama: 61%
Wolfe: 39%
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mondale84
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2012, 06:30:32 pm »
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With 17% Obama leads uncommitted 56-44.
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2012, 06:34:10 pm »
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With 17% Obama leads uncommitted 56-44.

Sad
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mondale84
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2012, 06:40:16 pm »
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Obama up 67-33 now (25% in)
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mondale84
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« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2012, 06:55:53 pm »
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Obama losing a ton eastern counties. Down 41-59 in Elliott with 100% in.
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« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2012, 06:57:45 pm »
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Where are you getting these results? I'd like to see bandit pop in here and explain how Kentucky's beloved Obama is doing so poorly to this uncommitted guy.
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netzero19
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« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2012, 07:01:34 pm »
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Try here:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/38672/82563/en/md.html?cid=150
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« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2012, 07:05:14 pm »
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Also, 69% of precincts reporting right now in KY, and Obama's beating "uncommitted" 59-41%. Whew, that sure is a whole bunch of racists... #sarcasm

If you have a better reason for it I'd sure love to hear it. Smiley
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2012, 07:09:29 pm »
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Also, 69% of precincts reporting right now in KY, and Obama's beating "uncommitted" 59-41%. Whew, that sure is a whole bunch of racists... #sarcasm

If you have a better reason for it I'd sure love to hear it. Smiley
I'd say the dire state of eastern Kentucky accounts for half of it.
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oakvale
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2012, 07:12:39 pm »
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Also, 69% of precincts reporting right now in KY, and Obama's beating "uncommitted" 59-41%. Whew, that sure is a whole bunch of racists... #sarcasm

If you have a better reason for it I'd sure love to hear it. Smiley
I'd say the dire state of eastern Kentucky accounts for half of it.

He got, what, 25% (?) of the vote in KY last time when he wasn't an incumbent President. I don't think it's that. Not to mention that states with equally terrible economic situations have provided him with easy victories.
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mondale84
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« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2012, 07:14:32 pm »
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There have to be SOME republicans trolling this primary
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« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2012, 07:16:12 pm »
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Why the hell would you even be in the Democratic Party in the first place??
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« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2012, 07:22:06 pm »
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This result cries out for a separate Democratic primary results map by county on the Atlas.
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oakvale
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2012, 07:23:32 pm »
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Also, 69% of precincts reporting right now in KY, and Obama's beating "uncommitted" 59-41%. Whew, that sure is a whole bunch of racists... #sarcasm

If you have a better reason for it I'd sure love to hear it. Smiley
I'd say the dire state of eastern Kentucky accounts for half of it.

People like Oakvale are the main reason I left the Democratic Party years ago. If you're not a supporter of President Obama, it can't be because of his record (or lack thereof), or because of the pathetic economic situation of Appalachian Kentucky...it  must be because they all hate black people. Such narrow thinking from such a progressive person, I presume.

I don't believe you were ever actually a Democrat, of course, but the idea that Obama's melanin content might be responsible for his unusally poor performance in traditionally Democratic white, working-class areas is hardly radical.

The usual response is something like "no, he's a poor cultural fit!", which is true, but is a bit of a crummy argument when you consider that John Kerry, the effete liberal aristocrat, won >70% landslides in the same states in '04.

EDIT: Also, no-one's ever actually said that strawman argument you posted. For the record.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2012, 07:26:19 pm by Oakvale »Logged

netzero19
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2012, 07:26:10 pm »
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There have to be SOME republicans trolling this primary

Kentucky has a closed primary.
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