Predict AR & KY

[Tender Branson]

This might be the only primary election where the Democratic Primary is more interesting than the GOP one this year (I think none predicted that Judd would come that close in WV).

Arkansas DEM:

57% Barack Obama
31% John Wolfe
12% Uncommitted

Arkansas GOP:

74% Mitt Romney
12% Rick Santorum
  9% Newt Gingrich
  5% Ron Paul

Kentucky DEM:

63% Barack Obama
37% Uncommitted

Kentucky GOP:

76% Mitt Romney
  9% Rick Santorum
  7% Newt Gingrich
  6% Ron Paul
  2% Uncommitted

[Tender Branson]

It's the last time I get up at 3am or so in the night to watch primary returns. Next time will be the conventions.

[Tender Branson]

It's the last time I get up at 3am or so in the night to watch primary returns. Next time will be the conventions.

What about June 5th? You have Super Tuesday and the Wisconsin recall.

Ah yeah, forgot about that recall.

[Tender Branson]

The AP is a bit further:

AR: 59-41 Obama

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/AR_President_0522.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

KY: 58-42 Obama

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/KY_President_0522.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[Tender Branson]

Everything is as I expected except for Obama's KY numbers. Ouch!

Green Papers said that Uncommitted was also on the ballot in AR. Otherwise I would have gotten AR and KY within about 5%.

Underestimated Paul in KY and AR though. Didn't expect him to do much better than in the other Deep South states.