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Author Topic: Primary poll of AR-04 Democrats shows Obama in trouble  (Read 2486 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 15, 2012, 12:52:50 pm »

Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll of AR-04:

45% – Barack Obama
38% – John Wolfe
17% – Undecided

The poll was taken just one day after President Obama made public his support of gay marriage; however, Obama has never performed extraordinarily well among voters in rural Arkansas.

Three weeks ago, a Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll showed Obama performing better in the culturally conservative First Congressional District of Arkansas. In that poll, Obama received 65% of the vote compared to Wolfe’s 24%.

THE GOP PRIMARY

Conversely, in the Republican primary Mitt Romney seems to be coalescing his support as contenders who qualified for the GOP ballot earlier this year have suspended or halted their campaigns. Romney, who has had a difficult time winning social conservatives that make up a large base of Arkansas Republican voters, is the easy victor among his rivals in the Fourth, according to a separate poll conducted among GOP primary voters.

59% – Romney
15% – Santorum
11% – Gingrich
7%  – Paul
8%  – Undecided

...

POLL METHODOLOGY
Both polls were conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College on Thursday, May 10, 2012. The Democratic poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4.8%, was completed using IVR survey technology among 418 likely Democratic voters in Arkansas’ Fourth Congressional District.

Participants were selected from a database of district voters who have voted in some or all of the last 5 Democratic primary elections and who affirmatively answered a question that they have early/absentee voted or intended to vote in the Democratic primary on May 22, 2012.

The Republican poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4.7%, was completed using IVR survey technology among 437 likely GOP voters in Arkansas’ Fourth Congressional District.

Participants were selected from a database of district voters who have voted in some or all of the last 5 Republican primary elections and who affirmatively answered a question that they have early/absentee voted or intended to vote in the Republican primary on May 22, 2012.

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business and Hendrix College.

http://talkbusiness.net/2012/05/obama-in-for-a-battle-in-the-fourth-romney-on-cruise-control/
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2012, 01:36:06 pm »
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Eh, I'd still say Safe Obama. He'll do better than this.
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Emperor Scott
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2012, 01:38:49 pm »
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Well, this primary is over.

Time for Democrats to join together and get behind our presumptive nominee for President of the United States: John Wolfe.
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2012, 01:44:58 pm »
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This other guy is only doing well in states that frankly, Obama never stood a chance in in 2008, let alone 2012.
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2012, 01:54:03 pm »
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These are the people Snowstalker wants the Democratic Party to try and win.
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2012, 02:08:17 pm »
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No Keith Judd?
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Real America demands to know.
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2012, 02:13:14 pm »
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Obama's still winning and this district doesn't include Little Rock.
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R2D2
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2012, 03:15:30 pm »
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John Wolfe/Vermin Supreme 2012!
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2012, 03:36:41 pm »
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These are the people Snowstalker wants the Democratic Party to try and win.

Wolfe isn't a federal prison inmate. In fact, looking at his website, he seems rather far to the left of Obama (basically Alan Grayson on his big issues).
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2012, 02:30:22 am »
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These are the people Snowstalker wants the Democratic Party to try and win.

Wolfe isn't a federal prison inmate. In fact, looking at his website, he seems rather far to the left of Obama (basically Alan Grayson on his big issues).

Awesome. Too bad he'll be beating Obama in such a lame state.
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2012, 05:12:21 am »
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Obama actually losing a state would be a terrible, terrible story for him to deal with.

That said, go John Wolfe, the real liberal!
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2012, 10:12:56 am »
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Consider George W. Bush's uncontested presidential primary in 2004. In the handful of states that actually held primary elections that year, Bush's worst performance came in New Hampshire, where he still managed to get 80% of the vote. And Bill Clinton's worst primary performance in the largely uncontested 1996 Democratic primary was the 76% he obtained in the Oklahoma Primary. So I love listening to folks spin this poll as "well Obama was never going to win in Arkansas anyway." Yeah, but we're talking about his OWN Democratic primary, not a race against a Republican...And we're talking about a primary where he has been essentially running unchallenged...and he's the incumbent President...and don't forget, he's also "The One."  

Make no mistake about it: if Obama loses in Arkansas, or wins by just a few points, then David Axelrod, Jim Messina, Ben Labolt and the whole crew will be in full-on damage control mode. The incumbent President should not be struggling with Democrats in any state (as 1996 and 2004 showed us).

It would be bad but let's remember the key issue here: he is a black.
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« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2012, 05:51:02 pm »
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Consider George W. Bush's uncontested presidential primary in 2004. In the handful of states that actually held primary elections that year, Bush's worst performance came in New Hampshire, where he still managed to get 80% of the vote. And Bill Clinton's worst primary performance in the largely uncontested 1996 Democratic primary was the 76% he obtained in the Oklahoma Primary. So I love listening to folks spin this poll as "well Obama was never going to win in Arkansas anyway." Yeah, but we're talking about his OWN Democratic primary, not a race against a Republican...And we're talking about a primary where he has been essentially running unchallenged...and he's the incumbent President...and don't forget, he's also "The One."   

Make no mistake about it: if Obama loses in Arkansas, or wins by just a few points, then David Axelrod, Jim Messina, Ben Labolt and the whole crew will be in full-on damage control mode. The incumbent President should not be struggling with Democrats in any state (as 1996 and 2004 showed us).

It would be bad but let's remember the key issue here: he is a black.

So what are you suggesting? That Democrats in Arkansas who vote against Obama are doing so because they are all racist? Just want to be sure. Love watching you Democrats eat your own. Wink

I don't know if he's suggesting that. But I'm sure that there are many, many Arkansas democrats who will vote against Obama because they are racist, yes. You may deny it, but you also know that's the key reason of his 59% in WV and his more-than-expected poor showing in  Arkansas.

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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2012, 06:41:00 pm »
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The main reason Obama is doing so poorly in AR (and WV) is because of butthurt over Hillary.  His being black is part of it but not the main factor.
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2012, 06:56:22 pm »
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The reason he does so poorly in places like Arkansas is because he's a northerner. He doesn't connect with Southerners at all because he doesn't have to. I think a black southerner would do far better than a white northerner in Arkansas.
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2012, 09:29:13 pm »
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The reason he does so poorly in places like Arkansas is because he's a northerner. He doesn't connect with Southerners at all because he doesn't have to. I think a black southerner would do far better than a white northerner in Arkansas.

I'm sure that's true to a degree, but...John Kerry
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2012, 05:18:29 am »
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Consider George W. Bush's uncontested presidential primary in 2004. In the handful of states that actually held primary elections that year, Bush's worst performance came in New Hampshire, where he still managed to get 80% of the vote. And Bill Clinton's worst primary performance in the largely uncontested 1996 Democratic primary was the 76% he obtained in the Oklahoma Primary. So I love listening to folks spin this poll as "well Obama was never going to win in Arkansas anyway." Yeah, but we're talking about his OWN Democratic primary, not a race against a Republican...And we're talking about a primary where he has been essentially running unchallenged...and he's the incumbent President...and don't forget, he's also "The One."  

Make no mistake about it: if Obama loses in Arkansas, or wins by just a few points, then David Axelrod, Jim Messina, Ben Labolt and the whole crew will be in full-on damage control mode. The incumbent President should not be struggling with Democrats in any state (as 1996 and 2004 showed us).

I'm sorry... this is Arkansas!! Where McCain got 20% of the 'liberal' vote and Obama got only 77% of Democrats in the general in a very Democratic year.

Consider this is an uncontested year where there are no consequences and it's only the hardcore who are bothering to turn out.

This is such a storm in a tea cup...
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2012, 10:13:24 am »
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People are seriously arguing that Appalachian crackers not voting for a black guy is significant? Jesus, what a terrible board. Let's all walk onto the ocean.

PS: Lyndon LaRouche got 5% and half a million votes in the 1996 primaries, which I think says everything about how meaningful the results are.
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2012, 06:40:56 pm »
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Consider George W. Bush's uncontested presidential primary in 2004. In the handful of states that actually held primary elections that year, Bush's worst performance came in New Hampshire, where he still managed to get 80% of the vote. And Bill Clinton's worst primary performance in the largely uncontested 1996 Democratic primary was the 76% he obtained in the Oklahoma Primary. So I love listening to folks spin this poll as "well Obama was never going to win in Arkansas anyway." Yeah, but we're talking about his OWN Democratic primary, not a race against a Republican...And we're talking about a primary where he has been essentially running unchallenged...and he's the incumbent President...and don't forget, he's also "The One."  

Make no mistake about it: if Obama loses in Arkansas, or wins by just a few points, then David Axelrod, Jim Messina, Ben Labolt and the whole crew will be in full-on damage control mode. The incumbent President should not be struggling with Democrats in any state (as 1996 and 2004 showed us).

It would be bad but let's remember the key issue here: he is a black.

So what are you suggesting? That Democrats in Arkansas who vote against Obama are doing so because they are all racist? Just want to be sure. Love watching you Democrats eat your own. Wink

I'm suggesting that many will vote against him because of his race, of course. I mean it won't be true for everyone who does it (I was hoping to vote against Obama myself but we didn't have a primary) but it will certainly be the case for quite a few, if not most. How could one seriously suggest otherwise?

And don't confuse me for someone who gives a damn about the Democratic Party. I'm basically a DINO (just not in the way one generally thinks of one who might be called that).
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2012, 06:54:44 pm »
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PEOPLE FROM THE SOUTH ARE VOTING AGAINST OBAMA?!

WELL THEY MUST BE RACIST ITS THE ONLY EXPLANATION!

Wink
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